The polls, RCP and 538 -

by Guest Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 12:41

...should be an interesting thing to watch over the next 2+ weeks.

RCP has Clinton comfortably ahead.
538 is showing a 90% chance she wins.

But
LATimes tracking poll still has it basically tied.
Rasmussen (and yes they have about a 2% R advantage historically) has it tied or Trump ahead.

And now - over the past few days IBD/TIPP has Trump ahead. And they've been the most accurate
over the past 3 elections. So there's a track record there. I keep saying that can't be possible. But
it must be....

Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has been the most accurate over the last three presidential elections. However, the Real Clear Politics poll average shows Clinton leading Trump by about six points in a two-way and four-way contest.

by **DWags** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 13:33

I'm of the mind that Americans have become poll savy. I don't believe many of them. I do think exit polling g is still pretty accurate. That's it though.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 13:58

It's my duty as an American to lie to exit pollsters just for lols

by **tGreenWay** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 13:58

DWags wrote:I'm of the mind that Americans have become poll savy. I don't believe many of them. I do think exit polling g is still pretty accurate. That's it though.

Agreed, although I think I think people are catching on to exit polling, too.
I still think this race will tighten, mostly because that's what they've done historically. But I can't explain away Goose's poll data, so maybe the only gap to narrow is to HRC's advantage. I admit--I've never heard of the IBD/TIPP before.

by **Turtleneck** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 14:12

No, Amercans are not poll savvy. Not even close. They rarely understand how poll data is collected and analyzed.

The LA Times/USC poll asks respondents to place candidates on a scale of 0-100. They also weight respondents answers based on how they voted in the past. This is much different from other polls. One thing the LA Times/USC poll does - and this is interesting - is that it does a better job of capturing enthusiasm for a candidate that other polls will miss. In other words, there might be more enthusiasm for Trump that other polls are not capturing.

by **tGreenWay** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 14:41

Turtleneck wrote:No, Amercans are not poll savvy. Not even close. They rarely understand how poll data is collected and analyzed.

The LA Times/USC poll asks respondents to place candidates on a scale of 0-100. They also weight respondents answers based on how they voted in the past. This is much different from other polls. One thing the LA Times/USC poll does - and this is interesting - is that it does a better job of capturing enthusiasm for a candidate that other polls will miss. In other words, there might be more enthusiasm for Trump that other polls are not capturing.

Well, duh.

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 14:51

Shut up, greenway.

by **Turtleneck** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 14:55

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Shut up, greenway.

Greenway is another deplorable Trump supporter. We get it, Greenway. The election is rigged.

by **tGreenWay** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 15:05

Turtleneck wrote:
Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Shut up, greenway.

Greenway is another deplorable Trump supporter. We get it, Greenway. The election is rigged.

I could post in the middle of a tSwill thread announcing I've stabbed you in the head and nothing would happen to me and I'd still get votes because many people say I'm great, believe me.

by **Turtleneck** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 15:29

Get back in the basket, Greenway.

by **tGreenWay** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 16:22

Turtleneck wrote:Get back in the basket, Greenway.

Why does Hillary hate millions of very great yuge patriotic freedom loving Americans?

by **GRR Spartan** Sat 22 Oct 2016 - 20:38

LooseGoose wrote:...should be an interesting thing to watch over the next 2+ weeks.

RCP has Clinton comfortably ahead.
538 is showing a 90% chance she wins.

But
LATimes tracking poll still has it basically tied.
Rasmussen (and yes they have about a 2% R advantage historically) has it tied or Trump ahead.

And now - over the past few days IBD/TIPP has Trump ahead. And they've been the most accurate
over the past 3 elections. So there's a track record there. I keep saying that can't be possible. But
it must be....

Trump Expands Lead Over Clinton To 2 Points – IBD/TIPP Poll

The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has been the most accurate over the last three presidential elections. However, the Real Clear Politics poll average shows Clinton leading Trump by about six points in a two-way and four-way contest.

Trump is a terrible candidate. Today he scheduled what was billed as a "policy speech" at the closest thing the US has as a hallowed location outside of Arlington, Gettysburg, PA.

How does Trump open? Promising to sue all the women who have accused him of inappropriate sexual advances.

Trump might cut the margin to 5 points but not like this,

by **Robert J Sakimano** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 7:46

I still think there are enough racist, bigoted, misogynistic knuckle-draggers in the US (look no further than this board) that Trump could win..

don't believe the polls.

by **DWags** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 8:20

Ironic

by **Motown Spartan** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 8:27

Hillary gonna win bigly! It will be a big league win for Dems as they are going to run roughshod over the GOP down ballot.

by **Robert J Sakimano** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 8:30

Motown Spartan wrote:Hillary gonna win bigly! It will be a big league win for Dems as they are going to run roughshod over the GOP down ballot.

that's certainly the way a lot of the talking heads seem to think it'll go.. and, of course, the mainstream media has an interest in making it close.. hence their fascination with Trump and opposition to Hillary at every turn..

we'll see.. you're a great American, by the way. The polls, RCP and 538 - 969504605

by **NigelUno** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 8:48

FYI - Clinton is now slightly ahead in that poll.

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

by Guest Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 12:13

Rasmussen Reports ‏@Rasmussen_Poll 4m4 minutes ago
Among 88% now certain how they will vote, #Trump holds statistically insignificant 48%-47% lead. http://tinyurl.com/z53ab84 #Election2016

by **Cym Jim** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 13:37

Is lars doing this shit again on Wells? Bumping those was a lot of fun.

by **Robert J Sakimano** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 13:48

Cym Jim wrote:Is lars doing this shit again on Wells? Bumping those was a lot of fun.

it was always fun reminding him about how wrong he was about he Iraq invasion.. The polls, RCP and 538 - 502811600

by **Watch Out Pylon!** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 14:35

Honestly, unless something earth shattering happens Clinton has this thing in the bag. Cherry picking the most favorable Trump polls are fun to talk about but with how flawed a lot of these polls are the percentages can vary wildly. A better forecast is to measure an average of the most respected polls. You do that and Clinton is leading comfortably.

by **Robert J Sakimano** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 14:39

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:Honestly, unless something earth shattering happens Clinton has this thing in the bag. Cherry picking the most favorable Trump polls are fun to talk about but with how flawed a lot of these polls are the percentages can vary wildly. A better forecast is to measure an average of the most respected polls. You do that and Clinton is leading comfortably.

I caught some fine American patriot the other day saying that the polls are skewed because, for whatever reason, people are uncomfortable with proclaiming the support for Trump publicly.

which explains a lot. The polls, RCP and 538 - 502811600

by **Turtleneck** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 16:43

I wonder if this is comparable to the Brexit vote. Similar sentiments drove the leave vote that currently drive the Trump campaign. In that case a majority of the pre-vote polls had the country remaining in the EU. The polls failed to capture an underlying enthusiasm for leave that brought out a lot of unexpected voters, and a lot of young people stayed home expecting remain "had it in the bag." I think there is a lot of enthusiasm for Trump that pollsters are not capturing. Interestingly, the polls that use methods that try to capture enthusiasm show the race as being fairly close.

by Guest Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 18:21

Turtleneck wrote:I wonder if this is comparable to the Brexit vote. Similar sentiments drove the leave vote that currently drive the Trump campaign. In that case a majority of the pre-vote polls had the country remaining in the EU. The polls failed to capture an underlying enthusiasm for leave that brought out a lot of unexpected voters, and a lot of young people stayed home expecting remain "had it in the bag." I think there is a lot of enthusiasm for Trump that pollsters are not capturing. Interestingly, the polls that use methods that try to capture enthusiasm show the race as being fairly close.

The other interesting thing I read today is that more bets are being placed on Trump right now in the online books.

by **DWags** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 18:41

LooseGoose wrote:
Turtleneck wrote:I wonder if this is comparable to the Brexit vote. Similar sentiments drove the leave vote that currently drive the Trump campaign. In that case a majority of the pre-vote polls had the country remaining in the EU. The polls failed to capture an underlying enthusiasm for leave that brought out a lot of unexpected voters, and a lot of young people stayed home expecting remain "had it in the bag." I think there is a lot of enthusiasm for Trump that pollsters are not capturing. Interestingly, the polls that use methods that try to capture enthusiasm show the race as being fairly close.

The other interesting thing I read today is that more bets are being placed on Trump right now in the online books.

Yep, I don't think this is going to be a cake walk, and I think the RNC is loving the fact that DNC is acting like it.

by Guest Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 18:56

DWags wrote:
LooseGoose wrote:

The other interesting thing I read today is that more bets are being placed on Trump right now in the online books.

Yep, I don't think this is going to be a cake walk, and I think the RNC is loving the fact that DNC is acting like it.

I still think Hills will win but it'll be fun to watch.

by **Turtleneck** Mon 24 Oct 2016 - 19:14

DWags wrote:
LooseGoose wrote:

The other interesting thing I read today is that more bets are being placed on Trump right now in the online books.

Yep, I don't think this is going to be a cake walk, and I think the RNC is loving the fact that DNC is acting like it.

I am not sure the RNC wants Trump in the Oval Office.

by **Robert J Sakimano** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 7:37

I think there is at least a 50/50 chance that Trump gets elected..

by **Robert J Sakimano** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 9:10

good news for Goose - in an attempt to make certain knuckle-dragging, racist, bigoted, misogynistic Trump supporters get out to vote, Republican polls have now joined the mainstream media polls in saying that Hillary is leading..

Rasmussen: Hillary Up 1 Point

by **Floyd Robertson** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:06

Interesting.

Here's what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted

The polls, RCP and 538 - YTNiZTk0MjdmMCMvcHdidDV2dEhNOUZxNzRiSkJnQWRwN09KU0tBPS8xNngxMjo3Nzh4NTU4LzYyMXg0NDUvZmlsdGVyczpxdWFsaXR5KDcwKS9odHRwOi8vczMuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9wb2xpY3ltaWMtaW1hZ2VzL3Vhb3Y3aXJlaGIyNGk0dnI5c25lMGM2Y2l3dWR1b201cXJsbXlicGZsNTE0cWJ0Y3Bmc21ocG5pM2hmcjRqbWYuanBn

The polls, RCP and 538 - YTNiZTk0MjdmMCMvcHdidDV2dEhNOUZxNzRiSkJnQWRwN09KU0tBPS8xNngxMjo3Nzh4NTU4LzYyMXg0NDUvZmlsdGVyczpxdWFsaXR5KDcwKS9odHRwOi8vczMuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9wb2xpY3ltaWMtaW1hZ2VzL3Vhb3Y3aXJlaGIyNGk0dnI5c25lMGM2Y2l3dWR1b201cXJsbXlicGZsNTE0cWJ0Y3Bmc21ocG5pM2hmcjRqbWYuanBn

by **Robert J Sakimano** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:30

Floyd Robertson wrote:Interesting.

Here's what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted

basically Trump has alienated everyone except uneducated white males.

which is a shock to absolutely nobody.

by **DWags** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:32

Floyd Robertson wrote:Interesting.

Here's what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted

I honestly think the Millennials are going to take our country so far left in the coming years that it won't be recognized if you went away and came back to it in 32 years or so. I'm dead in 20-25 years so it's not that big of a deal to me.

I also don't think it's going to be that bad of a deal. i do think the Millennials will also figure out how to clean up an pare down Military spending and waste and move that money around to other parts of the budget, like education and roads and what the fuck ever. I don't think they have this ghost of the cold war over their shoulder and feel it's unpatriotic to put that shit on the table and look at waste and look at what is really needed in the world for protection and tell the military industrial complex they've had a good 70 year run, it's time to move public money to other parts.

I don't advocate any of these positions nor do I denounce them. Just being around them and listening to Millennials, I think they have a different world view and there's nothing wrong with that. Lord knows my baby boom generation dropped the fucking ball.

by **Floyd Robertson** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:35

DWags wrote:
Floyd Robertson wrote:Interesting.

Here's what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted

I honestly think the Millennials are going to take our country so far left in the coming years that it won't be recognized if you went away and came back to it in 32 years or so. I'm dead in 20-25 years so it's not that big of a deal to me.

I also don't think it's going to be that bad of a deal. i do think the Millennials will also figure out how to clean up an pare down Military spending and waste and move that money around to other parts of the budget, like education and roads and what the fuck ever. I don't think they have this ghost of the cold war over their shoulder and feel it's unpatriotic to put that shit on the table and look at waste and look at what is really needed in the world for protection and tell the military industrial complex they've had a good 70 year run, it's time to move public money to other parts.

I don't advocate any of these positions nor do I denounce them. Just being around them and listening to Millennials, I think they have a different world view and there's nothing wrong with that. Lord knows my baby boom generation dropped the fucking ball.

There's also the chance that millennials turn the U.S. into their own version of a bumbling France.

by **NigelUno** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:48

Robert J Sakimano wrote:good news for Goose - in an attempt to make certain knuckle-dragging, racist, bigoted, misogynistic Trump supporters get out to vote, Republican polls have now joined the mainstream media polls in saying that Hillary is leading..

Rasmussen: Hillary Up 1 Point

And...

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-takes-1-point-lead-as-trump-admits-hes-behind-ibdtipp-poll/

"Hillary Clinton took a 1-point lead in the IBD/TIPP presidential election tracking poll — 42% to 41% — which marks the first time Clinton has been in front in this poll."

by **Robert J Sakimano** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:51

NigelUno wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:good news for Goose - in an attempt to make certain knuckle-dragging, racist, bigoted, misogynistic Trump supporters get out to vote, Republican polls have now joined the mainstream media polls in saying that Hillary is leading..

Rasmussen: Hillary Up 1 Point

And...

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-takes-1-point-lead-as-trump-admits-hes-behind-ibdtipp-poll/

"Hillary Clinton took a 1-point lead in the IBD/TIPP presidential election tracking poll — 42% to 41% — which marks the first time Clinton has been in front in this poll."

yep - the pollsters and mainstream media are starting to get nervous..

by **NigelUno** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:53

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
NigelUno wrote:

And...

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-takes-1-point-lead-as-trump-admits-hes-behind-ibdtipp-poll/

"Hillary Clinton took a 1-point lead in the IBD/TIPP presidential election tracking poll — 42% to 41% — which marks the first time Clinton has been in front in this poll."
yep - the pollsters and mainstream media are starting to get nervous..

If Trump gets beat worse than Romney...he's going to get scorched by some Republicans. It will be interesting if any more back away from him before the election.

by **Rocinante** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 10:59

Every time it looks like somebody has it covered, some poll comes out so that the 24 hour news cycle has something to talk about. Trump will be destroyed. It will be epic.

by Guest Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 11:04

Robert J Sakimano wrote:good news for Goose - [/url]

Obsessed.

by **Robert J Sakimano** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 11:06

LooseGoose wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:good news for Goose - [/url]

Obsessed.

Vote here to ban bob sak

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** Tue 25 Oct 2016 - 11:17

DWags wrote:
Floyd Robertson wrote:Interesting.

Here's what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted

I honestly think the Millennials are going to take our country so far left in the coming years that it won't be recognized if you went away and came back to it in 32 years or so. I'm dead in 20-25 years so it's not that big of a deal to me.

I also don't think it's going to be that bad of a deal. i do think the Millennials will also figure out how to clean up an pare down Military spending and waste and move that money around to other parts of the budget, like education and roads and what the fuck ever. I don't think they have this ghost of the cold war over their shoulder and feel it's unpatriotic to put that shit on the table and look at waste and look at what is really needed in the world for protection and tell the military industrial complex they've had a good 70 year run, it's time to move public money to other parts.

I don't advocate any of these positions nor do I denounce them. Just being around them and listening to Millennials, I think they have a different world view and there's nothing wrong with that. Lord knows my baby boom generation dropped the fucking ball.

I like this and agree with this.

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