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Is Trump living up to your expectations on trade?

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Is Trump living up to your expectations on trade? Empty Is Trump living up to your expectations on trade?

Post by Turtleneck Wed 5 Jul 2017 - 10:53

Trump promised to make trade fair again. Is he succeeding?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/05/trump-promised-to-make-trade-fair-again-is-he-succeeding/?utm_term=.0ee12b9c91b9

“Here are seven steps I would pursue right away to bring back our jobs,” Trump said last year. “One: I am going to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has not yet been ratified.”

Status: Fulfilled. Trump kept this promise, though the 12-nation trade pact crafted by the Obama administration was probably already dead because of opposition in Congress. On Jan. 23, Trump signed an executive order officially withdrawing the United States from the deal.

“Two: I'm going to appoint the toughest and smartest trade negotiators to fight on behalf of American workers,” Trump said.

Status: Partly fulfilled. Many trade experts think highly of the newly appointed U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, a former deputy trade representative under Ronald Reagan with decades of legal experience, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Both are thought to have a protectionist bent.

Yet many of the important positions just below Lighthizer and Ross remain vacant, meaning this goal has only been partly fulfilled. At Commerce, nearly one-third of the positions listed on the website as the department's "leadership" are vacant, while at the trade office nearly half of all top positions are unfilled.

“Three: I'm going to direct the secretary of commerce to identify every violation of trade agreements a foreign country is currently using to harm our workers. I will then direct all appropriate agencies to use every tool under American and international law to end these abuses,” Trump said.

Status: Partly fulfilled. On April 29, Trump signed an executive order directing Ross, Lighthizer and others in the government to review all trade and investment agreements within 180 days, as well as any other trade relationship where the United States runs a trade deficit. The order says that these findings will guide trade policy, though no results are available yet. The deadline is at the end of October.

“Four: I'm going tell our NAFTA partners that I intend to immediately renegotiate the terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers. And I don't mean just a little bit better, I mean a lot better. If they do not agree to a renegotiation, then I will submit notice under Article 2205 of the NAFTA agreement that America intends to withdraw from the deal,” Trump said.

Status: Partly fulfilled. Mexico and Canada have agreed to negotiations, which should start after Aug. 16.

We have yet to see whether the terms turn out not just "a little bit better" but "a lot better," as Trump promised. The administration’s rhetoric about the North American Free Trade Agreement has shifted a lot since the campaign. Instead of talking about tearing up the deal, the administration now focuses on modernizing it, to the relief of many American industries that depend on the agreement to export to Canada and Mexico.

The administration seems unlikely to fulfill this goal anytime soon. In a recent hearing in front of the Senate Finance Committee, Lighthizer implied that the administration is unlikely to finish NAFTA negotiations by the end of the year.

“Five: I am going to instruct my treasury secretary to label China a currency manipulator. Any country that devalues their currency in order to take advantage of the United States will be met with sharply,” Trump said.

Status: Not fulfilled. Trump did not keep this promise to label China a currency manipulator in a semiannual report on America’s trading partners published in April -- for a simple reason. Although China has a long history of suppressing the value of its currency to make its products cheaper abroad, an activity that hurts U.S. exporters, it no longer is doing so. For the past several years it has actually propped up its currency, which helps American competitors.

For this reason, economists such as Eswar Prasad of Cornell University say Trump’s decision not to label China a currency manipulator was a good thing. Yet Prasad adds that the more sensible route would have been for Trump to realize this before the election.

"Six: I am going to instruct the U.S. trade representative to bring trade cases against China, both in this country and at the WTO. China's unfair subsidy behavior is prohibited by the terms of its entrance to the WTO, and I intend to enforce those rules," Trump said.

Status: Not fulfilled. While the attention has largely been focused elsewhere, the Trump administration has yet to file a single dispute at the World Trade Organization. Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, points out that the last two disputes filed by the United States, over wine and aluminum, were filed by the Obama administration in mid-January. And unlike previous administrations, the current one has done little to advance the cases of its predecessors, Bown says.

“While Trump is threatening lots of new import restrictions on China – including on steel and aluminum in these national security cases – he has not taken any concrete action to get Beijing to change its policy behavior and fix the underlying problems of its overcapacity, industrial policy, or government subsidies,” Bown wrote in an email.

This is perhaps because Lighthizer, the trade representative, was just confirmed in May. But Bown fears that it reflects an ambivalence in the Trump administration toward the WTO, something that could denigrate the group's global standing.

"Seven: If China does not stop its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets, I will use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes, including the application of tariffs consistent with Section 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962," Trump said.

Status: Partially fulfilled. The Commerce Department has launched investigations of the steel and aluminum industries under the Section 232 measure, which allows the president to restrict certain imports if they compromise U.S. national security. Ross originally said the results would be released by the end of June, but the administration now appears to be waiting until after the G-20 meeting on Friday and Saturday, perhaps to use the investigations as leverage on trading partners.



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Post by Turtleneck Thu 6 Jul 2017 - 9:31

EU and Japan strike a free trade deal

The agreement paves the way for trading in goods without tariff barriers between two of the world's biggest economic areas.

However, few specific details are known and a full, workable agreement may take some time.
Two of the most important sectors are Japanese cars and, for Europe, EU farming goods into Japan.

The outline plan was signed in Brussels after a meeting between the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, and the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, on the eve of a meeting of the G20 group of leading economies in Hamburg.

It comes hard on the heels of the collapse of a long-awaited trade agreement between Japan, the US and other Pacific ring countries, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was scrapped in January by US President Donald Trump.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40520218?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AMorning%20Brief
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Post by Guest Thu 6 Jul 2017 - 11:10

Shock Report: Trump’s Tough Trade Talk Is Working

As the G-20 summit gets underway in Germany, a shocking study out of Britain suggests — are you sitting down? — President Trump’s aggressive statements on trade may actually be working to the benefit of the United States.

Stay with us because you probably won’t see much about this White House success elsewhere. Critics have long suggested that Trump’s bluntness would alienate trade partners or, worse, even ignite trade wars. True, some like Germany are not happy.

But the Center for Economic Policy Research in London has just reported that the other 19 G-20 economies took 52 steps against United States commercial entities in the first six months of this year.

And that, the Center reports, is — wait for it — down 29% from the first six months of last year when someone, let’s say, more aloof and less outspoken was president of the United States. These actions against U.S. interests include quotas, duties and tariffs on imports from the U.S., measures against dumping and tax incentives for exporters that could adversely U.S. companies.

In public remarks and even tweets, Trump has ranted about the global trade playing field being tilted against the U.S. “The United States made some of the worst Trade Deals in world history,” he’s said. “Why should we continue these deals with countries that do not help us?”

Simon Evenett, one of the authors of the Global Trade Alert and a professor of economics at Switzerland’s St. Gallen University, puts it this way:

“The G20 countries that had hit U.S. interests more often before President Trump was elected are the very G20 countries that have cut back on protectionism the most in 2017,” said . “Why should [they] do that unless they feared being singled out for retaliation?”

Evenett thinks such countries have gotten the tougher message out of the new Trump administration.
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Post by Turtleneck Thu 6 Jul 2017 - 11:15



Stay with us because you probably won’t see much about this White House success elsewhere.

Article links to a CNN report....
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Post by Turtleneck Thu 6 Jul 2017 - 11:50

For whatever reason, neither your link or CNN linked to the actual report. Here it is:

http://www.globaltradealert.org/reports/42

Goose, do you think returning to a power-based trading system works in our long-term advantage? Especially if you link trade to other issues? In the long-term, it seems like it would diminish U.S. influence by building resentment, and it would make partners less willing to cooperate in other areas.

Return to a power-based trading system?

In sum fear, it seems, trumped trade rules and G20 pledges when it came to taming protectionism in the first half of 2017. This finding will be uncomfortable to some as it could presage a return to a power-based trading system. Still, the realisation that the G20 protectionist chickens have come home to roost could spur an open and constructive discussion about the limits of “binding” trade rules and G20 pledges in defending open borders during eras of sub-par growth and geopolitical rivalry.

None of this is to endorse either the rhetoric or actions of the Trump Administration or other US public bodies—it is one thing to assess whether other countries have responded to shock and awe trade policy tactics by the United States; it is quite another to endorse such tactics.
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Post by Turtleneck Thu 6 Jul 2017 - 12:06

The trade deficit, the gap between U.S. imports and exports of goods and services, fell to $46.5 billion, falling $1.1 billion from the previous month, data released Thursday morning by the Commerce Department showed.

U.S. exports rose 0.4 percent to $192 billion, evidence of a rebound in global trade, while imports declined just 0.1 percent to $238.5 billion.

“Trade is back,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, wrote in an email to clients.

Yet while the U.S. trade balance fell in the month of May, it is on pace to be larger this year than last. In the first five months of 2017, the trade balance came to $233 billion, compared to $206 billion in the first five months of 2016.

Even in some countries whose trade practice Trump has specifically criticized, the imbalance continues to grow. The U.S. trade deficit with Canada has widened by $7.7 billion this year, while the trade deficit with Mexico has grown by $3.8 billion, Fotios Raptis, an analyst at TD Economics, said in a note Thursday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/06/trump-vowed-to-wipe-out-the-trade-deficit-he-hasnt-made-much-progress/?utm_term=.fc06a6a08c82
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Post by Turtleneck Fri 7 Jul 2017 - 12:37



Stay with us because you probably won’t see much about this White House success elsewhere.

Now in the Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/07/trumps-trade-threats-appear-to-be-working-for-now/?utm_term=.b8d4143af162

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Post by Floyd Robertson Fri 7 Jul 2017 - 12:47

Turtleneck wrote:
The trade deficit, the gap between U.S. imports and exports of goods and services, fell to $46.5 billion, falling $1.1 billion from the previous month, data released Thursday morning by the Commerce Department showed.

U.S. exports rose 0.4 percent to $192 billion, evidence of a rebound in global trade, while imports declined just 0.1 percent to $238.5 billion.

“Trade is back,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, wrote in an email to clients.

Yet while the U.S. trade balance fell in the month of May, it is on pace to be larger this year than last. In the first five months of 2017, the trade balance came to $233 billion, compared to $206 billion in the first five months of 2016.

Even in some countries whose trade practice Trump has specifically criticized, the imbalance continues to grow. The U.S. trade deficit with Canada has widened by $7.7 billion this year, while the trade deficit with Mexico has grown by $3.8 billion, Fotios Raptis, an analyst at TD Economics, said in a note Thursday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/06/trump-vowed-to-wipe-out-the-trade-deficit-he-hasnt-made-much-progress/?utm_term=.fc06a6a08c82

We must buy a shit-ton of maple syrup as a country.
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Post by Turtleneck Fri 7 Jul 2017 - 12:59

Floyd Robertson wrote:
Turtleneck wrote:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/06/trump-vowed-to-wipe-out-the-trade-deficit-he-hasnt-made-much-progress/?utm_term=.fc06a6a08c82

We must buy a shit-ton of maple syrup as a country.

I always thought local syrup was just as good as the Canadian stuff. Plus they put fentanyl in the Canadian stuff.
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Post by Guest Thu 30 Aug 2018 - 17:52

Golly Gee.....1st Mexico.

And today Trudeau signals that Canada wants to get a deal done.

And now the EU......and from that Trump supporting rag the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/30/business/europe-trade-auto-tariffs.html

FRANKFURT — President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on imported cars is working, sending foreign leaders from Mexico to Japan racing to the negotiating table to make deals.

Europe, on Thursday, offered one of the most significant concessions, saying it would cut its existing penalties on automobiles to zero, provided the United States dropped its own tariffs.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano Thu 30 Aug 2018 - 19:06

LooseGoose wrote:Golly Gee.....1st Mexico.

And today Trudeau signals that Canada wants to get a deal done.

And now the EU......and from that Trump supporting rag the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/30/business/europe-trade-auto-tariffs.html

FRANKFURT — President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on imported cars is working, sending foreign leaders from Mexico to Japan racing to the negotiating table to make deals.

Europe, on Thursday, offered one of the most significant concessions, saying it would cut its existing penalties on automobiles to zero, provided the United States dropped its own tariffs.
thanks for the mainstream media link.
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Post by Rocinante Fri 31 Aug 2018 - 18:24

He will fail because his whole life is failure. Then in his failure he will either claim victory, blame democrats, or say that Canada is being very unfair.
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Post by Floyd Robertson Wed 6 Mar 2019 - 10:42

So Trump has this going for him.

[tw]1103319352642859008[/tw]


The annual U.S trade deficit reached a record high in 2018, despite President Trump’s efforts to reduce foreign purchases and steer consumers toward American-made products.

The difference between the value of goods and services imported and exported by the U.S. rose $68.8 billion from 2017 to $621 billion in 2018, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday. The monthly trade deficit for December 2018 rose to $59.8 billion, the widest gap for any month since October 2008.

Trump has made reducing the U.S. trade deficit one of his signature issues. He has focused especially China, which he says is a result of unfair trade deals that hinder American manufacturing and exports. To push back, Trump has imposed tariffs on billions of dollars in foreign goods, including steel, aluminum and Chinese exports.
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Post by GRR Spartan Wed 6 Mar 2019 - 17:11

I'm convinced former Fed Chair Yellen was correct that our current POTUS doen't understand macro-economics.

Tariff wars are easy to win and help the US economy.

So now we have tariffs costing many of us more for a lot of things and the trade deficit is increasing.
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