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Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie

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Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie Empty Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie

Post by Green Note 3/9/2015, 8:59 am

Excerpt:

#1 Since February 2008, the size of the U.S. population has grown by 16.8 million people, but the number of full-time jobs has actually decreased by 140,000.

#2 The percentage of working age Americans that have a job right now is still about the same as it was during the depths of the last recession. Posted below is a chart that shows how the employment-population ratio has changed since the beginning of the decade. Does this look like a full-blown “employment recovery” to you?…

#3 The primary reason for the decline in the official “unemployment rate” is the fact that the government now considers millions upon millions of long-term unemployed workers to “no longer be in the labor force”. Just check out the following numbers…

The number of Americans participating in the labor force has been on a decline for the past few years. Nearly 33 percent of the Americans above age 16 are not part of the workforce, the highest number since 1978. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report issued recently has found 92,898,000 Americans above age 16 not a part of the labor force of the country as on February 2015.

When President Obama took over the office in January 2009, nearly 80,529,000 Americans were not a part of the labor force. The number has increase by nearly 12 million over the last few years.

#4 Over the past couple of years, the labor force participation rate in this country has been hovering near mutli-decade lows…

The labor force participation rate hovered between 62.9 percent and 62.7 percent in the eleven months from April 2014 through February, and has been 62.9 percent or lower in 13 of the 17 months since October 2013.

Prior to that, the last time the rate was below 63 percent was 37 years ago, in March 1978 when it was 62.8 percent, the same rate it was in February.

#5 When you add the number of “officially unemployed” Americans (8.7 million) to the number of Americans “not in the labor force” (92.9 million), you get a grand total of 101.6 million working age Americans that do not have a job right now. Does that sound like “full employment” to you?

#6 The quality of our jobs continues to decline. Right now, only 44 percent of U.S. adults are employed for 30 or more hours each week.

#7 Millions upon millions of Americans have been forced to take part-time jobs because that is all they can find, and wages for American workers are at depressingly low levels. The following numbers come directly from the Social Security Administration…

-39 percent of American workers make less than $20,000 a year.

-52 percent of American workers make less than $30,000 a year.

-63 percent of American workers make less than $40,000 a year.

-72 percent of American workers make less than $50,000 a year.

#8 The average duration of unemployment for an unemployed worker is still about twice as long as it was just prior to the last recession.

#9 Most Americans feel as though the Obama administration has done little to nothing to help the middle class. Just consider the following poll numbers…

According to a new poll by the Pew Research Center, Americans see government policies under the Obama administration as having mostly benefited wealthy people, large corporations and financial institutions.

Seventy-two percent of respondents said government policies have done little or nothing to help the middle class, and 65 percent said they have done nothing to help the poor. Sixty-eight percent said the policies have done nothing to help small businesses.

Meanwhile, 45 percent said the policies have done a “great deal” to help large banks and financial institutions, 38 percent say they have helped large corporations, and 36 percent say they have helped the wealthy.

#10 If the unemployment rate was calculated honestly, we would all be talking about the horrific “unemployment crisis” that we were currently enduring. According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, the real unemployment rate in the United States right now is above 23 percent.

Our politicians and the mainstream media are attempting to convince us that everything is just fine.

But what they are telling us simply does not match the cold, hard reality on the streets.
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Post by Green Note 3/9/2015, 9:02 am

Counting All Discouraged Workers, December 2014 Unemployment Was 23.0%. . . . More than anything else, though, what removes headline-unemployment reporting from broad underlying economic reality and common experience simply is definitional. To be counted among the headline unemployed (U.3), an individual has to have looked for work actively within the four weeks prior to the unemployment survey. If the active search for work was in the last year, but not in the last four weeks, the individual is considered a “discouraged worker” by the BLS [and not counted in the U.3 measure]. ShadowStats defines that group as “short-term discouraged workers,” as opposed to those who become “long-term discouraged workers” after one year.
Moving on top of U.3, the broader U.6 unemployment measure includes only the short-term discouraged workers. The still-broader ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Measure includes an estimate of all discouraged workers, including those discouraged for one year or more, as the BLS used to measure the series pre-1994, and as Statistics Canada still does.

When the headline unemployed [U.3 measure] become “discouraged,” they are rolled over from U.3 to U.6. As the short-term discouraged workers roll over into long-term discouraged status, they move into the ShadowStats measure, where they remain. Aside from attrition, they are not defined out of existence for political convenience, hence the longer-term divergence between the various unemployment rates. Further detail is discussed in the Reporting Detail section. The resulting difference here is between a headline December 2014 unemployment rates of 5.6% (U.3) and 23.0% (ShadowStats). [The U.6 unemployment rate containing the short-term discouraged workers is 11.2%.]
[The 23% unemployment rate is consistent with the declining Civilian Employment-Population Ratio and the declining Labor Force Participation Rate. The rise in discouraged workers is reflected in the decline in these ratios.]
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Post by Robert J Sakimano 3/9/2015, 9:08 am

I know you want your own thread, but it really belongs more in this thread..

February Job Numbers Come Out Today - Republicans, Get Ready To Be Outraged By Good News For America
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Post by Turtleneck 3/9/2015, 8:17 pm

Green Note said: The number of Americans participating in the labor force has been on a decline for the past few years.
The last few years? The labor force participation rate has been trending downward since 2000.

Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie Latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2000_2015_all_period_M02_data
Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie Latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1990_2015_all_period_M02_data
You can run your own data at the BLS: http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

I know we want to tie the labor force participation data to the current administration, but unfortunately the decline pre-dates Obama. That might indicate there is something beyond fiscal policy at play.
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Post by Guest 3/9/2015, 9:01 pm

Turtleneck wrote:
The last few years? The labor force participation rate has been trending downward since 2000.

Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie Latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2000_2015_all_period_M02_data
Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie Latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1990_2015_all_period_M02_data
You can run your own data at the BLS: http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

I know we want to tie the labor force participation data to the current administration, but unfortunately the decline pre-dates Obama. That might indicate there is something beyond fiscal policy at play.

Looking at that 2nd chart it does seem the trend has accelerated since 2008.
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Post by Turtleneck 3/9/2015, 9:45 pm

Correct, but the downward trend was already underway. Since it was already underway it would be difficult to establish  causation between the Obama Administration's fiscal policy and the declining LFPR. At least in my opinion. The LFPR is greatly influenced by a number of variables external to fiscal policy. Women entering the workforce jumped the LFPR in the past, just as Baby Boomers working through the 1990s and then retiring might have triggered a decline in the 2000s. Nonetheless, the accelerated decline is noted. It does seem to sort of fall of the cliff.
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