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It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 00:05

tGreenWay wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:I swear to god I hate all of you.

Pipe down, Mr. Bitterman. These boys are having a dick-wagging contest.

Herbie doesn't have the stones to bet. He just likes looking at numbers.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by tGreenWay 2015-11-24, 00:11

NigelUno wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:

Pipe down, Mr. Bitterman. These boys are having a dick-wagging contest.

Herbie doesn't have the stones to bet. He just likes looking at numbers.

Seems like it.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Herbie Green 2015-11-24, 00:13

NigelUno wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:

Pipe down, Mr. Bitterman. These boys are having a dick-wagging contest.

Herbie doesn't have the stones to bet. He just likes looking at numbers.

Pretty much true. I was just trying to answer OTPT's question. Ficticous bets against MSU with Internet strangers are not something that interests me.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 08:07

IF ND beats Stanford and MSU wins out:

(Using current ESPN power rankings)

Wins over Top 25:

ND:  Stanford, Temple
MSU:  OSU, UM, Iowa, Oregon

Big12 teams (possible wins):

OU:  Baylor, TCU, (OK State)
Baylor:  OK State, (TCU)
OK State:  TCU, (OU)
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Robert J Sakimano 2015-11-24, 08:25

tGreenWay wrote:
Vlad wrote:

I'm not sure that makes any more sense either though. The reason LSU fell from #2 is because Bama knocked 'em off. Hard. Maybe that contributed to their skid.  So essentially you're penalizing Bama for beating #2 LSU.

Similarly, when we beat Oregon they were ranked where they were ranked. The fact that we knocked 'em off probably helped to throw them off their game (and it certainly hurt their QB more). So it's a bit of revisionist history to say "well, they really weren't that good."

Shit, someone could look at OSU today and say "they lost to MSU without Cook, so they really weren't that good."  Not sure I buy into that logic.

You play who you play on a given day.  THAT ranking should matter.  What happens later on in the season may well be a byproduct of what you did to 'em.

I guarantee there will be plenty of geniuses saying and writing exactly that.  
in defense of the "geniuses", most people here last week were saying how bad Ohio State has looked and that they had yet to play anyone.

I suppose that's the risk we take when we consistently demean every single opponent and then, after we win, we try to make them out to be the New England Patriots.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by kingstonlake 2015-11-24, 08:36

Bob nails it
Robert J Sakimano wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:

I guarantee there will be plenty of geniuses saying and writing exactly that.  
in defense of the "geniuses", most people here last week were saying how bad Ohio State has looked and that they had yet to play anyone.

I suppose that's the risk we take when we consistently demean every single opponent and then, after we win, we try to make them out to be the New England Patriots.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by kingstonlake 2015-11-24, 08:38

Oh, and who cares.

I bet anybody a million dollars my farts smell worse than yours. I'm right, you're wrong. Pay up.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Herbie Green 2015-11-24, 10:12

NigelUno wrote:IF ND beats Stanford and MSU wins out:

(Using current ESPN power rankings)

Wins over Top 25:

ND:  Stanford, Temple
MSU:  OSU, UM, Iowa, Oregon

Big12 teams (possible wins):

OU:  Baylor, TCU, (OK State)
Baylor:  OK State, (TCU)
OK State:  TCU, (OU)

And how about ND's vs MSU's one loss?

ND is at a 31% chance going up to 46% if they beat Stanford. Although I would think their hopes hinge more on OSU beating Oklahoma than taking the Big Ten's spot.

Which means also that an Ok state win would also put MSU close to 100%. If both ND and Ok win then MSU's 92% will drop. Now we are in a political fight with with ND and Okla - 3 teams for two spots. MSU is no longer a lock so an undefeated Iowa could only help.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Travis of the Cosmos 2015-11-24, 10:15

Msu is 100% guaranteed to go if they win out. Not even a question. Probably should win out first though before we start arguing about resumes and shit. There will be a stressful three days to do that after the big Ten championship game.

The last spot will be between Oklahoma and ND if both of those teams win on Saturday. Which they won't.

That was way easier.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Guest 2015-11-24, 10:16

Herbie Green wrote:
NigelUno wrote:IF ND beats Stanford and MSU wins out:

(Using current ESPN power rankings)

Wins over Top 25:

ND:  Stanford, Temple
MSU:  OSU, UM, Iowa, Oregon

Big12 teams (possible wins):

OU:  Baylor, TCU, (OK State)
Baylor:  OK State, (TCU)
OK State:  TCU, (OU)

And how about ND's vs MSU's one loss?

ND is at a 31% chance going up to 46% if they beat Stanford. Although I would think their hopes hinge more on OSU beating Oklahoma than taking the Big Ten's spot.

Which means also that an Ok state win would also put MSU close to 100%. If both ND and Ok win then MSU's 92% will drop. Now we are in a political fight with with ND and Okla - 3 teams for two spots. MSU is no longer a lock so an undefeated Iowa could only help.

If we win out we're a fucking lock. A 1 loss B1GTen Champion with 4-5 wins over Top 25 teams and 7-8 wins over bowl teams is NOT going to get left out of the playoffs. It's just not going to happen.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Robert J Sakimano 2015-11-24, 10:17

kingstonlake wrote:Bob nails it
I usually do. This stuff isn't near as difficult as people make it seem.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 10:26

Herbie Green wrote:
NigelUno wrote:IF ND beats Stanford and MSU wins out:

(Using current ESPN power rankings)

Wins over Top 25:

ND:  Stanford, Temple
MSU:  OSU, UM, Iowa, Oregon

Big12 teams (possible wins):

OU:  Baylor, TCU, (OK State)
Baylor:  OK State, (TCU)
OK State:  TCU, (OU)

And how about ND's vs MSU's one loss?

ND is at a 31% chance going up to 46% if they beat Stanford...

You claimed to be a math tutor, but you seem to be having a difficult time with these numbers.

The discussion has centered around MSU winning out (and being 12-1) and making the playoff.

ND's 31% chance to make the playoff includes the chance that other teams (like MSU) will lose. You get that, right?

Would you agree that if Iowa wins out, they are a lock?

But, you were arguing before that an undefeated MSU would NOT be a lock?


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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 10:29

LooseGoose wrote:
Herbie Green wrote:

And how about ND's vs MSU's one loss?

ND is at a 31% chance going up to 46% if they beat Stanford. Although I would think their hopes hinge more on OSU beating Oklahoma than taking the Big Ten's spot.

Which means also that an Ok state win would also put MSU close to 100%. If both ND and Ok win then MSU's 92% will drop. Now we are in a political fight with with ND and Okla - 3 teams for two spots. MSU is no longer a lock so an undefeated Iowa could only help.

If we win out we're a fucking lock. A 1 loss B1GTen Champion with 4-5 wins over Top 25 teams and 7-8 wins over bowl teams is NOT going to get left out of the playoffs. It's just not going to happen.

But...some guy says it's only 92%!!!
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Herbie Green 2015-11-24, 10:39

NigelUno wrote:
Herbie Green wrote:

And how about ND's vs MSU's one loss?

ND is at a 31% chance going up to 46% if they beat Stanford...

You claimed to be a math tutor, but you seem to be having a difficult time with these numbers.

The discussion has centered around MSU winning out (and being 12-1) and making the playoff.

ND's 31% chance to make the playoff includes the chance that other teams (like MSU) will lose. You get that, right?

Would you agree that if Iowa wins out, they are a lock?

But, you were arguing before that an undefeated MSU would NOT be a lock?



Uggh. Try to understand it rather than acting like an ass when you don't know what you are talking about. I think I would have to write 5 page paper going through every single scenario and explaining how the numbers work and yet you might still try to argue
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Herbie Green 2015-11-24, 10:41

NigelUno wrote:
LooseGoose wrote:

If we win out we're a fucking lock. A 1 loss B1GTen Champion with 4-5 wins over Top 25 teams and 7-8 wins over bowl teams is NOT going to get left out of the playoffs. It's just not going to happen.

But...some guy says it's only 92%!!!

As you would say "I don't think he understands how math works"
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 10:50

Herbie Green wrote:
NigelUno wrote:

You claimed to be a math tutor, but you seem to be having a difficult time with these numbers.

The discussion has centered around MSU winning out (and being 12-1) and making the playoff.

ND's 31% chance to make the playoff includes the chance that other teams (like MSU) will lose. You get that, right?

Would you agree that if Iowa wins out, they are a lock?

But, you were arguing before that an undefeated MSU would NOT be a lock?



Uggh. Try to understand it rather than acting like an ass when you don't know what you are talking about. I think I would have to write 5 page paper going through every single scenario and explaining how the numbers work and yet you might still try to argue

That is awesome! Say that I don't know what I'm talking about, and just refuse to address my questions.

You tout ND's 31%, but refuse to address that percentage includes scenarios where MSU could lose to Penn State or Iowa...when we are discussing MSU winning out.

You get that, right? I mean...please tell me you understand that.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by The_Dude 2015-11-24, 11:12

IF beating an 11-1 Iowa instead of a 12-0 Iowa is the difference, than blow the whole fucking thing up.

IMO MSU is a lock for the 3rd seed if we win out. Would actually like to be 4th and play Clemson assuming Clemson wins out instead of Bama but lots of football to be played. still.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Herbie Green 2015-11-24, 11:22

NigelUno wrote:
Herbie Green wrote:

Uggh. Try to understand it rather than acting like an ass when you don't know what you are talking about. I think I would have to write 5 page paper going through every single scenario and explaining how the numbers work and yet you might still try to argue

That is awesome! Say that I don't know what I'm talking about, and just refuse to address my questions.

You tout ND's 31%, but refuse to address that percentage includes scenarios where MSU could lose to Penn State or Iowa...when we are discussing MSU winning out.

You get that, right? I mean...please tell me you understand that.

Yeah I do get that. As I said, I think ND has a better shot at the Big 12s spot at this point. Their odds will go up considerably if Okla State wins. If MSU loses they will go up but they will still be potentially competing with an undefeated Iowa for that spot. You get into a nearly endless web of outcomes if you go through every team so lets focus back on just MSU.
They have a 92% chance of making it if they win out (for the sake of argument). So how does that 8% come into play? It seems like the only way that happens is that both Oklahoma and ND win out and get bids along with Bama and Clemson who we will assume also win out to make it simpler.
So that 8% could go up or down based on the outcomes of other games (we are already assuming MSU wins out here afterall). ND and Oklahoma are basically toss up games so there is about a 25% chance they both win and that 92% drops. And a 75% chance at least one of them loses which I think would put MSU's chances close to 100%. Then you could say "see it was a lock all along" when that is really not what happened.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Travis of the Cosmos 2015-11-24, 11:26

You guys sure to put a lot of time into talking about hypothetical scenarios that then change 5 days from now. Seriously wouldn't even bother until after the ND Stanford and Oklahoma osu games.

But that's up to you I guess. I can just keep skimming your posts.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 11:41

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:You guys sure to put a lot of time into talking about hypothetical scenarios that then change 5 days from now. Seriously wouldn't even bother until after the ND Stanford and Oklahoma osu games.

But that's up to you I guess. I can just keep skimming your posts.

We are a lock to get in if we win out.

It seems the ONLY people who disagree are "Chicken Little" Vlad and "Black Mark" Herbie.

Neither will address the idea that they were delusional to think a 13-0 MSU wouldn't get in, while they are now arguing that a 12-1 MSU might not get in.

As such, I implore the Co9 to authorize immediate avatar changes:

Vlad needs a permanent Chicken Little one, and Herbie can have a black mark. Make it happen.

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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Travis of the Cosmos 2015-11-24, 11:45

NigelUno wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:You guys sure to put a lot of time into talking about hypothetical scenarios that then change 5 days from now. Seriously wouldn't even bother until after the ND Stanford and Oklahoma osu games.

But that's up to you I guess. I can just keep skimming your posts.

We are a lock to get in if we win out.

It seems the ONLY people who disagree are "Chicken Little" Vlad and "Black Mark" Herbie.

Neither will address the idea that they were delusional to think a 13-0 MSU wouldn't get in, while they are now arguing that a 12-1 MSU might not get in.

As such, I implore the Co9 to authorize immediate avatar changes:

Vlad needs a permanent Chicken Little one, and Herbie can have a black mark. Make it happen.


Oh I know we are.

I just think it's funny to even talk about the various scenarios in any week other than the one leading up to the conference championship game. Just too many variables to even make it worth a conversation.

A couple of weeks ago it was "what if these 8 teams all win out???" Shockingly, none of them did. Which made that a real neat conversation.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by InTenSity 2015-11-24, 11:56

NigelUno wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:You guys sure to put a lot of time into talking about hypothetical scenarios that then change 5 days from now. Seriously wouldn't even bother until after the ND Stanford and Oklahoma osu games.

But that's up to you I guess. I can just keep skimming your posts.

We are a lock to get in if we win out.

It seems the ONLY people who disagree are "Chicken Little" Vlad and "Black Mark" Herbie.

Neither will address the idea that they were delusional to think a 13-0 MSU wouldn't get in, while they are now arguing that a 12-1 MSU might not get in.

As such, I implore the Co9 to authorize immediate avatar changes:

Vlad needs a permanent Chicken Little one, and Herbie can have a black mark. Make it happen.

Can't you donate points to change the avatars? Ask Heat to do it.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by DWags 2015-11-24, 11:58

NigelUno wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:You guys sure to put a lot of time into talking about hypothetical scenarios that then change 5 days from now. Seriously wouldn't even bother until after the ND Stanford and Oklahoma osu games.

But that's up to you I guess. I can just keep skimming your posts.

We are a lock to get in if we win out.

It seems the ONLY people who disagree are "Chicken Little" Vlad and "Black Mark" Herbie.

Neither will address the idea that they were delusional to think a 13-0 MSU wouldn't get in, while they are now arguing that a 12-1 MSU might not get in.

As such, I implore the Co9 to authorize immediate avatar changes:

Vlad needs a permanent Chicken Little one, and Herbie can have a black mark. Make it happen.


Those two actually think that a 13-0 MSU would not get in or there would be a "maybe not"?


Then it's like beating your head against a wall just quit. They're arguing just to argue
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Vlad 2015-11-24, 12:52

DWags wrote:
NigelUno wrote:

We are a lock to get in if we win out.

It seems the ONLY people who disagree are "Chicken Little" Vlad and "Black Mark" Herbie.

Neither will address the idea that they were delusional to think a 13-0 MSU wouldn't get in, while they are now arguing that a 12-1 MSU might not get in.

As such, I implore the Co9 to authorize immediate avatar changes:

Vlad needs a permanent Chicken Little one, and Herbie can have a black mark.  Make it happen.  


Those two actually think that a 13-0 MSU would not get in or there would be a "maybe not"?


Then it's like beating your head against a wall just quit. They're arguing just to argue

So much love....I love you

I'll believe it's a "lock" when Nate says it's a lock, or when the playoff committee says it's a lock.  Listening to you clowns struggle to comprehend multiple scenarios...yeah, you're not very convincing.  Heck, Nigel had to take out an insurance policy ON HIS OWN BET! (LOL) That's the level of confidence we're seeing here.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by tGreenWay 2015-11-24, 13:19

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:

I guarantee there will be plenty of geniuses saying and writing exactly that.  
in defense of the "geniuses", most people here last week were saying how bad Ohio State has looked and that they had yet to play anyone.

I suppose that's the risk we take when we consistently demean every single opponent and then, after we win, we try to make them out to be the New England Patriots.

Stop with this normal talk, man. You're freaking me out.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Robert J Sakimano 2015-11-24, 13:24

tGreenWay wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:
in defense of the "geniuses", most people here last week were saying how bad Ohio State has looked and that they had yet to play anyone.

I suppose that's the risk we take when we consistently demean every single opponent and then, after we win, we try to make them out to be the New England Patriots.

Stop with this normal talk, man. You're freaking me out.
I guess we could resort to name-calling and obscenities....Wink
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by tGreenWay 2015-11-24, 13:39

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:

Stop with this normal talk, man. You're freaking me out.
I guess we could resort to name-calling and obscenities....Wink

And threats of violence? I'm in!
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Robert J Sakimano 2015-11-24, 13:43

tGreenWay wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:I guess we could resort to name-calling and obscenities....Wink

And threats of violence? I'm in!
It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right? - Page 2 1896033241
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by tGreenWay 2015-11-24, 13:45

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:

And threats of violence? I'm in!
It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right? - Page 2 1896033241

Attaboy. Now fuck off, asshole.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 20:38

Vlad wrote:
DWags wrote:

Those two actually think that a 13-0 MSU would not get in or there would be a "maybe not"?


Then it's like beating your head against a wall just quit. They're arguing just to argue

So much love....I love you

I'll believe it's a "lock" when Nate says it's a lock, or when the playoff committee says it's a lock.  Listening to you clowns struggle to comprehend multiple scenarios...yeah, you're not very convincing.  Heck, Nigel had to take out an insurance policy ON HIS OWN BET! (LOL) That's the level of confidence we're seeing here.
Vlad wrote:
DWags wrote:

Those two actually think that a 13-0 MSU would not get in or there would be a "maybe not"?


Then it's like beating your head against a wall just quit. They're arguing just to argue

So much love....I love you

I'll believe it's a "lock" when Nate says it's a lock, or when the playoff committee says it's a lock.  Listening to you clowns struggle to comprehend multiple scenarios...yeah, you're not very convincing.  Heck, Nigel had to take out an insurance policy ON HIS OWN BET! (LOL) That's the level of confidence we're seeing here.

I know, right? Who would have thought I could get insurance to cover a bet on a message board with an anonymous poster? Thank God for that.

You in at 12.5/1? Those were your numbers. I'm confident. $500 minimum this time. You can do the math on how much you'll make if you win. Let me know.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by The_Dude 2015-11-24, 20:54

Now that we are ahead of ND, nope, doesn't matter. Win out and we are 4th at least.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Vlad 2015-11-24, 20:58

The_Dude wrote:Now that we are ahead of ND, nope, doesn't matter. Win out and we are 4th at least.

Agree, we've entered the safe zone now. Just gotta take care of business at this end!
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by NigelUno 2015-11-24, 21:05

Vlad wrote:
The_Dude wrote:Now that we are ahead of ND, nope, doesn't matter. Win out and we are 4th at least.

Agree, we've entered the safe zone now. Just gotta take care of business at this end!

Backtracking Vladdie.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by DWags 2015-11-24, 21:24

Vlad wrote:
The_Dude wrote:Now that we are ahead of ND, nope, doesn't matter. Win out and we are 4th at least.

Agree, we've entered the safe zone now. Just gotta take care of business at this end!

But at 11-0 we'd be at risk. I like how you think.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

Post by Vlad 2015-11-24, 22:06

DWags wrote:
Vlad wrote:

Agree, we've entered the safe zone now. Just gotta take care of business at this end!

But at 11-0 we'd be at risk. I like how you think.

And I like how you don't. We make a good team.
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Bolt Re: It's not that big of a deal if Nebraska beats Iowa, right?

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