tOfficial Electoral College Predictions Thread

by **Turtleneck** 2016-10-27, 15:22

Clinton 273
Trump 265

Clinton squeaks it out. National polls are widening in Clinton's favor, but I think the focus should be on state polls.

Here is RCP's electoral map, which gives you the most recent polling trends in each state.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Then you can plug in your winners here.
http://www.270towin.com/

If you look at the second link, in the west I moved NV, AZ, and UT to red. In the midwest, I moved NE, IA, and OH red, while moving WI and PA blue. In the northeast, I moved NH and ME blue. In the south, I moved NC, GA, and FL red. Overall, I cannot help but think Trump is more popular than the polls indicate. I have a suspicion - and I hope I am very wrong - this will be like the Brexit vote where there was unaccounted for enthusiasm for leaving and many people stayed home because they thought remaining had it won. So, I am making my prediction based on unaccounted for enthusiasm for Trump and many staying home or voting third party.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2016-10-27, 15:32

Hillary: 290
Trump: 248

I see it being somewhat close in the popular vote, Hillary squeaking out the electoral vote. Obviously, turnout is key. The Trump supporters, I believe, will turn out - hate, fear and paranoia are powerful emotions.

Maybe with the mainstream media excitedly discussing over the next 9-10 days about how Trump is closing, while hammering Hillary on made up controversies will motivate some Clinton supporters to get to the polls.

I think one thing Hillary has in her corner is a popular President (Barack), an even more popular First Lady (Michelle), along with Bill, Bernie and Elizabeth Warren hitting the campaign trail to barnstorm swing states.

I suspect Hillary will win, but I never put much past the collective intellect of America which is why I think Trump does stand a chance.

by **Turtleneck** 2016-10-27, 16:00

I just don't see Clinton winning this by a big margin. I would not be surprised if Trump won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College. But who knows? This election is not the norm so nothing would surprise me.

by P Rob 2016-10-28, 09:16

HRC. 323-215.

by **xsanguine** 2016-10-28, 09:21

I can't wait to continue bombing the shit out of muslims and cheering on our first woman president (that's all that matters). Because the wholesale slaughter of muslims is not nearly as bad as "banning" them from our country, as stupid as that is.

Yay! I vote for tomahawk missiles raining down on villages, I'm with Her!

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-10-28, 09:29

xsanguine wrote:I can't wait to continue bombing the shit out of muslims and cheering on our first woman president (that's all that matters). Because the wholesale slaughter of muslims is not nearly as bad as "banning" them from our country, as stupid as that is.

Yay! I vote for tomahawk missiles raining down on villages, I'm with Her!

I don't see you rushing to enlist to advise Iraqi troops in person.

I like the idea of drones and smart bombs rather than hand to hand combat.

by **Cym Jim** 2016-10-28, 12:21

328 - 208

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** 2016-10-28, 12:25

xsanguine wrote:I can't wait to continue bombing the shit out of muslims and cheering on our first woman president (that's all that matters). Because the wholesale slaughter of muslims is not nearly as bad as "banning" them from our country, as stupid as that is.

Yay! I vote for tomahawk missiles raining down on villages, I'm with Her!

I am Not With Her.

by **Cym Jim** 2016-10-28, 12:40

Well he's got the Hindi vote locked up:

Apparently this is running 50 times a day on Indian American TV stations tOfficial Electoral College Predictions Thread 1966794946

tOfficial Electoral College Predictions Thread 1966794946

by **xsanguine** 2016-10-28, 22:54

GRR Spartan wrote:
xsanguine wrote:I can't wait to continue bombing the shit out of muslims and cheering on our first woman president (that's all that matters). Because the wholesale slaughter of muslims is not nearly as bad as "banning" them from our country, as stupid as that is.

Yay! I vote for tomahawk missiles raining down on villages, I'm with Her!

I don't see you rushing to enlist to advise Iraqi troops in person.

I like the idea of drones and smart bombs rather than hand to hand combat.

I'm sure you do, GRR.

Anything to insulate ourselves from the carnage and destruction we bring to that part of the world. Wouldn't want to put our guys in harms way as we tear apart torsos and decimate villages, would we? Neo-con war hawk logic; hillary's favorite. Brown people only matter to your kind if it's politically convenient.

by **xsanguine** 2016-10-28, 22:55

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:
xsanguine wrote:I can't wait to continue bombing the shit out of muslims and cheering on our first woman president (that's all that matters). Because the wholesale slaughter of muslims is not nearly as bad as "banning" them from our country, as stupid as that is.

Yay! I vote for tomahawk missiles raining down on villages, I'm with Her!

I am Not With Her.

(Bro fist)

by **Turtleneck** 2016-10-29, 00:33

SaBato's Crystal Ball...

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-10-29, 19:58

xsanguine wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:

I don't see you rushing to enlist to advise Iraqi troops in person.

I like the idea of drones and smart bombs rather than hand to hand combat.

I'm sure you do, GRR.

Anything to insulate ourselves from the carnage and destruction we bring to that part of the world. Wouldn't want to put our guys in harms way as we tear apart torsos and decimate villages, would we? Neo-con war hawk logic; hillary's favorite. Brown people only matter to your kind if it's politically convenient.

I could care less of the color.

If I was in the military and saw you as a threat I'd kill you without a second thought.

I've been shot at by brown people who were hellbent on killing me and anyone around me.

You can be real mouthy and real brave because you haven't and will never put your ass in harm's way facing enemy fire. If you voted for Reagan or Bush2 you already made up your mind.

Are you such a child you think that the Iraqi military's change in attitude in the first Iraq War would have happened when they thought their families were safe and sound 8 - 10 storied below ground covered with reinforced concrete?

1 bunker buster bomb ended that war and also killed scores of Iraqi military and their immediate families.

by **xsanguine** 2016-10-29, 19:59

And how many civilians have those bombs killed, tough guy?

by **xsanguine** 2016-10-29, 20:00

I've had guns put on me from by brown people. Doesn't make me want to carpet bomb their neighborhoods.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 11:34

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-11-01, 13:17

Playing with maps again?

by **Turtleneck** 2016-11-01, 15:54

LooseGoose wrote:

tOfficial Electoral College Predictions Thread 1550444538

Who does the House pick? Based on you map and according to the rules it would have to be Trump or Clinton.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 17:53

Turtleneck wrote:
LooseGoose wrote:

Who does the House pick? Based on you map and according to the rules it would have to be Trump or Clinton.

The funny part is that the map shown is actually plausible. Or you could give Hills NV/NH and Trump WI and get to the same place.

In that case the House goes Trump, they wouldn't survive in 2 years otherwise. Now if you did the same map and give UT to McMullen then it might get interesting since he would then be eligible. But I still think it goes to Trump - but if Trump got out of control in the interim there would be an alternative.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 18:11

IF you like reading about polls and paths to 270 - this is an article from this afternoon.

Whoa: New poll has Trump by seven in … North Carolina

A month ago, Clinton led by two points overall in this poll thanks to that mammoth 37-point advantage among urban voters. It seems … unlikely to me that she would have lost 27 points off of that margin in that period, but this poll was conducted after the Comey news dropped on Friday. That’s one reason to pay special attention to these numbers and not just the polling average. There’s been a major news development affecting the race, and this is the only survey of the state to have priced it in so far. (A Remington Research poll was taken over the weekend showing Trump up two but that’s a Republican outfit.) Incidentally, this is the first time either candidate has hit 50 percent in a North Carolina poll; Trump’s previous best was 47 percent. Apart from two Remington polls, he hadn’t led a single survey of NC in more than a month until this one. A seven-point lead seems implausible in light of that, but it’s highly likely that this state is now up for grabs after looking fairly solidly Democratic for most of October. A separate poll from Elon University released today and conducted before the FBI news on Friday had Clinton ahead in North Carolina by less than a point, and showed the same ominous trend for Hillary among women voters that SurveyUSA detected — she’s in decline, losing five points off her lead among women in SurveyUSA’s data and dropping six points among that group in Elon’s. Again, that isn’t (entirely) due to the Comey news as Elon’s poll was conducted before that came out. With the new WRAL numbers factored in, FiveThirtyEight has Hillary’s chances of winning NC down to 51.4 percent from 72 percent just two weeks ago. It’s a true toss-up now.

by **Turtleneck** 2016-11-01, 18:16

LooseGoose wrote:
Turtleneck wrote:

Who does the House pick? Based on you map and according to the rules it would have to be Trump or Clinton.

The funny part is that the map shown is actually plausible. Or you could give Hills NV/NH and Trump WI and get to the same place.

In that case the House goes Trump, they wouldn't survive in 2 years otherwise. Now if you did the same map and give UT to McMullen then it might get interesting since he would then be eligible. But I still think it goes to Trump - but if Trump got out of control in the interim there would be an alternative.

Each state only gets one vote in the House. So every state with more than one rep has to compromise. In the event McMullen wins Utah, he could be the compromise.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 18:43

I've been wondering why I'm still seeing ads for both candidates in MI.....this is a good tell why.
-------
Bill Hemmer ‏@BillHemmer 5m5 minutes ago
Watch the travel schedule. @HillaryClinton to #Detroit Friday, four days before election.
======
their internals have to be telling them something other than the general narrative that MI isnt close.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 18:46

And this is the big one for later tonight or tomorrow -

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 24m24 minutes ago
Lots of nervous Dems awaiting Marquette poll. WI is a) whiter b) more working class than other states assumed to be in Clinton's firewall.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2016-11-01, 19:14

LooseGoose wrote:
Turtleneck wrote:

Who does the House pick? Based on you map and according to the rules it would have to be Trump or Clinton.

The funny part is that the map shown is actually plausible. Or you could give Hills NV/NH and Trump WI and get to the same place.

In that case the House goes Trump, they wouldn't survive in 2 years otherwise. Now if you did the same map and give UT to McMullen then iTunes might get interesting since he would then be eligible. But I still think it goes to Trump - but if Trump got out of control in the interim there would be an alternative.

Actually, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't in 2 years. Either "you voted for Clinton and ignored our love baby trump" or "you voted for trump this fucking bufoon you're so stupid (ignoring that I, republican voter, also voted for him.)"

by Guest 2016-11-01, 19:29

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
LooseGoose wrote:

The funny part is that the map shown is actually plausible. Or you could give Hills NV/NH and Trump WI and get to the same place.

In that case the House goes Trump, they wouldn't survive in 2 years otherwise. Now if you did the same map and give UT to McMullen then iTunes might get interesting since he would then be eligible. But I still think it goes to Trump - but if Trump got out of control in the interim there would be an alternative.

Actually, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't in 2 years. Either "you voted for Clinton and ignored our love baby trump" or "you voted for trump this fucking bufoon you're so stupid (ignoring that I, republican voter, also voted for him.)"

Well actually the majority of Republican primary voters DIDN'T vote for him.

But your point is valid. Either "winner" is going to get slammed around - #1 because they both are crooked and scandal magnets. #2 we're due a doozy of a recession - no matter that it's inevitable - whichever President is in office will get blamed for it.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 21:59

IF Hills wins both of these she's a lock barring a shocker in MI, PA or VA.

Political Polls ‏@Politics_Polls 1h1 hour ago
#Nevada:
Clinton 43% (+1)
Trump 42%
Johnson 12%

#Wisconsin:
Clinton 44% (+2)
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

@SurveyMonkey 10/25-31

by **DWags** 2016-11-01, 22:02

LooseGoose wrote:IF Hills wins both of these she's a lock barring a shocker in MI, PA or VA.

Political Polls ‏@Politics_Polls 1h1 hour ago
#Nevada:
Clinton 43% (+1)
Trump 42%
Johnson 12%

#Wisconsin:
Clinton 44% (+2)
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

@SurveyMonkey 10/25-31

I think we'll have a shocker on Election Day.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 22:05

From the NYT:

Allahpundit ‏@allahpundit 37m37 minutes ago
Black turnout drops in early voting, boding ill for Clinton

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-11-01, 22:13

Many polling people expected the gap to close from the 7-9 point margin we saw two weeks out.

Comey delivered an October Surprise from an unexpected source (Weiner)

Trump holds Iowa, Ohio, wins 2 toss ups FL, NC and flips MI he wins 275-262

He needs to flip MI or Wisconsin for a chance.
A better path than he had a week ago.

If Clinton holds MI, MI and PA and loses NC and FL Clinton wins 279-259
Clinton has to use the 100's of workers in WI, MI and PA to get out the vote.

I think it comes down to Clinton getting out the vote of voters who voted for Obama. The email news hasn't helped but voters who were going to vote for her previously (like myself) aren't going to flip and vote for Trump because of the Comey news.

I know Goose is looking forward to a Trump Presidency. I don't know why other than its not Clinton.
My fear is living in a GOP theocracy Mike Pence wiill push for.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 23:07

GRR Spartan wrote:I know Goose is looking forward to a Trump Presidency. I don't know why other than its not Clinton.
My fear is living in a GOP theocracy Mike Pence wiill push for.

LOL....the BobS brainwash.

All I've done here is comment on the horserace. I'm doing that using Trump and Hills because any other candidate has the proverbial snowball's chance. Somehow because I've posted on the horserace I'm a Trump fan. You people are amazing.

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-11-01, 23:25

Now were are to the You people part of the program.

You are the guy whose been posting photos and updating us on Fox News so some of us think your bias is showing despite your protestations.

Bob has nothing to do with it.

I fear a Trump Presidency on multiple levels. Domestic watching him flop to folks who will overturn Roe v Wade, make it possible to sue the media and move us to eliminate social safety nets with zero plan for raising incomes.

But that's just me.

Does anyone with a clue think Trump is going to reverse our import / export situation? He imports most of his business empire including help.

by Guest 2016-11-01, 23:27

GRR Spartan wrote:Now were are to the You people part of the program.

You are the guy whose been posting photos and updating us on Fox News so some of us think your bias is showing despite your protestations.

Bob has nothing to do with it.

I fear a Trump Presidency on multiple levels. Domestic watching him flop to folks who will overturn Roe v Wade, make it possible to sue the media and move us to eliminate social safety nets with zero plan for raising incomes.

But that's just me.

Does anyone with a clue think Trump is going to reverse our import / export situation? He imports most of his business empire including help.

And anyone thinking Hills has better answers is delusional. Both are a rolling shitshow. She's fucked up nearly everything she's touched her entire life, tell me how that changes now?

by Guest 2016-11-01, 23:29

And this thread goes off the rails. I was commenting on the electoral college per TN's starting post and that makes me a Trump supporter according to GRR.

by **Death Roe** 2016-11-02, 00:19

Trump 538
Crooked Hillary 0

by **Turtleneck** 2016-11-02, 00:42

LooseGoose wrote:And this thread goes off the rails. I was commenting on the electoral college per TN's starting post and that makes me a Trump supporter according to GRR.

Yeah, let's attack each other in different threads.

by Guest 2016-11-02, 00:57

Turtleneck wrote:
LooseGoose wrote:And this thread goes off the rails. I was commenting on the electoral college per TN's starting post and that makes me a Trump supporter according to GRR.

Yeah, let's attack each other in different threads.

I would sincerely love to have it pointed out to me where in this thread that I "supported" Trump or prompted anyone to think I was "looking forward" to a Trump presidency. I've been very clear that I think the next 4 years with either one in office will be a shitshow.

Those opinions are completely divorced from speculating/commenting on the horserace aspect of it. 2 weeks ago I didn't think there would be a horserace, now it seems we have one.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2016-11-02, 07:51

part of me would like to see Trump win, only because it would validate my theory that America is a stupid country. I mean, I already know that - it would just be fun to prove it (in a vacuum).

also in a vacuum, it would be fun to watch Trump flounder.. watch a sitting president go on trial for the rape of a child.. while his "christian" supporters are getting ready to go to church.. tOfficial Electoral College Predictions Thread 502811600

tOfficial Electoral College Predictions Thread 502811600

by Guest 2016-11-02, 11:17

I guess at 1pm EST we get a new Monmouth poll of PA and the Marquette poll of WI.

Should be interesting.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2016-11-02, 11:23

LooseGoose wrote:I guess at 1pm EST we get a new Monmouth poll of PA and the Marquette poll of WI.

Should be interesting.

if you trust the polls, it could be.

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-11-03, 08:53

No Goose you are a person who favors some of what Trump does, specifically reducing the number of Supreme Court Justices because you may disagree who the next President may nominate.

Doesn't make you a bad person. Just means you have less faith in a system with 9 Justices that's worked since 1837 than I do and think you don't trust members of SCOTUS to arrive at decisions that keep this country going in its present form. There is nothing to stop any nominee for being the next Earl Warren who once on the court was hardly in lock step with those who worked For his appointment.

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