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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 9:50

post #438?

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Post by kingstonlake Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:01

C'mon Trap. You can do it.
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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:04

kingstonlake wrote:C'mon Trap. You can do it.

Once again, your posts are confusing me.  I included the LFPR in post #438, which says they were basically unchanged.

What are you asking for that I didn't post ... and the link is provided, so those who want to get into the nitty gritty details can just look at the report.

I could copy and post the total report, however the Headline Numbers are all most people care about and posting the whole report requires reformatting every line and confuses those who don't care about all the details. The LFPR get posted because of past history with Conservatives claiming it is hugely important.

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Last edited by Trapper Gus on Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:16; edited 1 time in total
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Post by kingstonlake Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:13

People are working for less

Meanwhile, average hourly wage growth unexpectedly decelerated in February. On an annual basis, wages rose 5.1%, marking the slowest rate since December. And over last month, average hourly earnings were flat after rising by 0.6% in January.

But even with the slowdown, wages have risen at rates well above pre-pandemic trends for months now. This has, in turn, contributed to the overall rise in inflation seen across the U.S. economy, though wages have not kept pace with the rise in consumer price inflation. The Consumer Price Index last rose 7.5% in January over last year — the biggest jump in 40 years.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/february-2022-jobs-report-labor-department-unemployment-usa-200943212.html
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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:35

kingstonlake wrote:People are working for less

Meanwhile, average hourly wage growth unexpectedly decelerated in February. On an annual basis, wages rose 5.1%, marking the slowest rate since December. And over last month, average hourly earnings were flat after rising by 0.6% in January.

But even with the slowdown, wages have risen at rates well above pre-pandemic trends for months now. This has, in turn, contributed to the overall rise in inflation seen across the U.S. economy, though wages have not kept pace with the rise in consumer price inflation. The Consumer Price Index last rose 7.5% in January over last year — the biggest jump in 40 years.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/february-2022-jobs-report-labor-department-unemployment-usa-200943212.html

Depending on what you are trying to say, and I will readily admit your comments easily confuse me, it isn't less.

Here is the section of the BLS Press Release on wages:

BLS Press Release Quote wrote:Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $31.58 in February, were little changed over the month (+1 cent), after large increases in recent months. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.1 percent. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents to $26.94.

Also, here is a site that follows incomes, which points out that income increases for all workers have done better than inflation and the lower 50% of workers have done much better than inflation.  They use Real Dollars, which mean that these percentage increases are on top of inflation.

Realtime Inequality provides the first timely statistics on how economic growth is distributed across groups. When new growth numbers come out each quarter, we show how each income and wealth group benefits. Controlling for price inflation, average national income per adult in the United States increased by 7.6% in 2021, and average income for the bottom 50% grew by 11.7%. National income is similar to GDP (which grew slightly less in 2021) and a better indicator of income earned by US residents.

Link to Income Analysis in Real Dollars

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Post by Robert J Sakimano Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:42

the Biden Bump.

driving those who want America to fail absolutely insane..  Bump when these numbers move - Page 12 3493939353

Bump.


Last edited by Robert J Sakimano on Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:43; edited 1 time in total
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Post by kingstonlake Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:43

Lol. Trapper, I strongly urge you to get out in the real world and feel inflation vs linking articles that try to convince you inflation isn't a real thing.
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Post by kingstonlake Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 10:52

thanks for the link Trapper. It clearly shows that among all groups the middle 40% has the lowest wage growth among all groups.  Bump when these numbers move - Page 12 55953254
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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 11:08

kingstonlake wrote:Lol. Trapper, I strongly urge you to get out in the real world and feel inflation vs linking articles that try to convince you inflation isn't a real thing.

Where did I say inflation wasn't happening?

I was just pointing out that people also have had more income, too.

I expect that will change some for the bottom 50% with the child support payments having ended on January 1st.

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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 11:12

kingstonlake wrote:thanks for the link Trapper. It clearly shows that among all groups the middle 40% has the lowest wage growth among all groups.  Bump when these numbers move - Page 12 55953254

Income growth, not wages.  

Yes, inflation adjusted growth of 5.1%.   At lease they can buy 5.1% more stuff this year than last.

Lower levels growth is higher because of labor shortages pushing low wage workers wages up & the child support payments.

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Post by kingstonlake Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 11:21

So you actually believe that across all groups we all have the ability to afford more "stuff" than we could last year? Even if you do believe that, the scaled average is weighted based on the top three groups in gains are the top .01%, .1%, and 1%
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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 11:36

kingstonlake wrote:So you actually believe that across all groups we all have the ability to afford more "stuff" than we could last year? Even if you do believe that, the scaled average is weighted based on the top three groups in gains are the top .01%, .1%, and 1%

To answer your question, I know we are buying more stuff.  

The shortages of stuff and price increases are not because less stuff is being made, it is because more stuff is being purchased.

The increases in wages for the bottom 90% has created the situation where the people who spend their money 100%, or close to that, now have more money to spend, and they are spending.  This is much of what is causing the inflation, and the people who believe that more money in the economy causes inflation are finally, after 12 years, seeing inflation.  They will not understand that it totally depends on which part of the population gets the money, however.

To your comment about the top incomes, this is why I use this site.  It shifts out the BLS averages into income groups, and accounts for inflation, providing a clearer picture of what each income group is living.  Sure, the wealthy are making out like bandits, they usually do.

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Post by kingstonlake Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 12:00

I give up.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 12:08

America is a stupid country.
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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 4 Mar 2022 - 12:09

kingstonlake wrote:I give up.

I am confused at what your point might be?

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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 17 Mar 2022 - 11:14

Employment Numbers wrote:WASHINGTON (AP) — Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week as layoffs continue to fall amid a strong job market rebound.

Jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 214,000 for the week ending March 12, down from the previous week’s 229,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. First-time applications for jobless aid generally track the pace of layoffs.

The four-week average for claims, which compensates for weekly volatility, fell to 223,000 from the previous week’s 231,750.

In total, 1,419,000 Americans — a 50-year low — were collecting jobless aid the week that ended March 5, down 71,000 from the week before that.

Earlier this month, the government reported that employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, from 4% in January, extending a sharp decline in joblessness to its lowest level since before the pandemic erupted two years ago.

AP New Wire

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Post by Trapper Gus Sat 26 Mar 2022 - 10:52

The initial applications for UE came in this week as the lowest number in 50 years.

The US population has gone from about 220 million to 330 million in that time, so this is a much bigger deal than it might seem.

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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 31 Mar 2022 - 11:42

An inflation gauge wrote:WASHINGTON (AP) — An inflation gauge that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.4% in February compared with a year ago, with sharply higher prices for food, gasoline and other necessities squeezing Americans’ finances.

The figure reported Thursday by the Commerce Department was the largest year-over-year rise since January 1982. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, so-called core inflation increased 5.4% in February from 12 months earlier.

Robust consumer demand has combined with shortages of many goods to fuel the sharpest price jumps in four decades. Measures of inflation will likely worsen in the coming months because Thursday’s report doesn’t reflect the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which occurred Feb. 24. The war has disrupted global oil markets and accelerated prices for wheat, nickel and other key commodities.

Squeezed by inflation, consumers increased their spending by just 0.2% in February, down from a much larger 2.7% gain in January. Adjusted for inflation, spending actually fell 0.4% last month. The decline partly reflected a shift away from heavy spending on goods to a focus on services, such as health care, travel and entertainment, which consumers had long avoided during the worst of the pandemic.

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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 1 Apr 2022 - 9:01

BLS wrote:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing.

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.6 percent in March, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 318,000 to 6.0 million. These measures are little different from their values in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers decreased by 191,000 to 1.4 million in March and is little different from its February 2020 level of 1.3 million.  The number of persons on temporary layoff was little changed over the month at 787,000 and has essentially returned to its February 2020 level.

The labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, changed little in March. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 60.1 percent.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13 cents to $31.73 in March. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.6 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents to $27.06. (This does not reflect income - Controlling for price inflation, average national income per adult in the United States increased by 7.6% in 2021, and average income for the bottom 50% grew by 11.7%. - TG)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 23,000, from +481,000 to +504,000, and the change for February was revised up by 72,000, from +678,000 to +750,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 95,000 higher than previously reported.  (BLS still missing to the low side by too high of a number - TG)

BLS Employment Press Release

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Post by Robert J Sakimano Fri 1 Apr 2022 - 9:43

great news for America.. bad news for Republicans and the mainstream media.

U.S. employers added 431,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said Friday.  

Caution: Mainstream Media Link

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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 1 Apr 2022 - 11:30

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Post by AvgMSUJoe Fri 15 Apr 2022 - 8:48

The Deficit... the HUGE indicator of what makes all Rs panties wadded up... dropped 71% in one year of Biden's budget vs Trump's thrifty "businessman-like" spending.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-budget-deficit-narrowed-71-in-march-from-year-earlier-11649786492

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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 15 Apr 2022 - 8:58

The intial UE numbers continue near the lowest levels since the LBJ administration.

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Post by Trapper Gus Sat 23 Apr 2022 - 9:25

New UE applications at 184k this week, still very low.

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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 6:57

tNYT wrote:What is the broader lesson here? The world is frequently messier and harder to understand than people acknowledge. We tell ourselves artificially tidy stories about why something happened and what will happen next.

The stock market rises or falls, and analysts proclaim a cause; in truth, they are often just guessing, as Paul Krugman, the economist and Times columnist, likes to point out.
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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 8:42

The week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 180,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 184,000 to 185,000. The 4-week moving average was 179,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 177,250 to 177,500.

First Quarter 2022 GDP contracted by 1.4%.

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Post by RQA Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 9:03

Trapper Gus wrote:

First Quarter 2022 GDP contracted by 1.4%.


Biden recession just around the corner?
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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 9:36

RQA wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

First Quarter 2022 GDP contracted by 1.4%.


Biden recession just around the corner?

He tried to stop it with the BBB.  This recession is all on the Fed's gamemenship regarding inflation and the Republicians refusing to support a bill which would help the 99%
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Post by Robert J Sakimano Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 9:43

Trapper Gus wrote:
RQA wrote:

Biden recession just around the corner?

He tried to stop it with the BBB.  This recession is all on the Fed's gamemenship regarding inflation and the Republicians refusing to support a bill which would help the 99%
Republicans don't care about everyday folks.. they only care about making their lives miserable then weaponizing that misery.
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Post by RQA Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 10:21

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

He tried to stop it with the BBB.  This recession is all on the Fed's gamemenship regarding inflation and the Republicians refusing to support a bill which would help the 99%
Republicans don't care about everyday folks.. they only care about making their lives miserable then weaponizing that misery.

If only smart people like democrats were in charge of the government then we wouldn't be having all of these problems..........
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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 10:29

RQA wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote: Republicans don't care about everyday folks.. they only care about making their lives miserable then weaponizing that misery.

If only smart people like democrats were in charge of the government then we wouldn't be having all of these problems..........

If only, but we have a 50/50 Senate with two Democratic Senators who each for their own reasons are not on board with the other 48.

And of course in the Senate 60 Senators plus are needed to have control.
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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 11:47

A somewhat more nuanced report than just the raw numbers.

https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-shrinks-in-Q1-7eb454a7874abeba545f8796edb38edb
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Post by RQA Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 14:07

Trapper Gus wrote:
RQA wrote:

If only smart people like democrats were in charge of the government then we wouldn't be having all of these problems..........

If only, but we have a 50/50 Senate with two Democratic Senators who each for their own reasons are not on board with the other 48.

And of course in the Senate 60 Senators plus are needed to have control.

More nonsense from Trapper.

The democrats control the Senate. If they want to get rid of the filibuster all they have to do is vote it out. They are in charge.
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Post by Floyd Robertson Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 14:22

RQA wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

If only, but we have a 50/50 Senate with two Democratic Senators who each for their own reasons are not on board with the other 48.

And of course in the Senate 60 Senators plus are needed to have control.

More nonsense from Trapper.

The democrats control the Senate.   If they want to get rid of the filibuster all they have to do is vote it out.  They are in charge.

Not really, they have 47 Democrats, a socialist and two attention-starved fence-sitters.
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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 28 Apr 2022 - 14:29

RQA wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

If only, but we have a 50/50 Senate with two Democratic Senators who each for their own reasons are not on board with the other 48.

And of course in the Senate 60 Senators plus are needed to have control.

More nonsense from Trapper.

The democrats control the Senate. If they want to get rid of the filibuster all they have to do is vote it out. They are in charge.

Another fairy tale, like your belief that markets prices are totally due to supply and demand.

How did that control of the Senate thing work out for you when the Republicans tried to repeal ObamaCare?
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Post by Trapper Gus Sat 30 Apr 2022 - 15:30

The New Yorker - GDP Decline Didn't really Happen
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Post by Trapper Gus Thu 5 May 2022 - 7:22

This is going to have more of an effect on stock prices and is probably why corporations are causing inflation by raising prices.

Regarding its balance sheet, the Fed said that Committee participants agreed to the plan for reducing its securities holding in a predictable manner. Starting June 1st, the Fed’s holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested to the extent that they exceed the monthly caps, which will be initially set at a combined level of $47.5 billion per month and will increase to $95 billion per month after three months.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano Thu 5 May 2022 - 8:27

bump..  Bump when these numbers move - Page 12 3493939353
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Post by Trapper Gus Fri 6 May 2022 - 11:50

Robert J Sakimano wrote:bump..  Bump when these numbers move - Page 12 3493939353

thanks ...

BLS Press Release wrote:Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 36,000, from +750,000 to +714,000, and the change for March was revised down by 3,000, from +431,000 to +428,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 39,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

BLS April Employment Press Release

looks like the BLS numbers from last month were more accurate than they have been for a year.

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Post by Robert J Sakimano Mon 9 May 2022 - 16:49

Number of points the Dow dropped today:

653

Bump.
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