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The 2020 Presidential campaign.

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Post by Jake from State Farm on 2020-09-13, 09:07

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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-13, 11:24

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:I'm sick of y'alls Debbie Downerism. kl I think you are influenced by your environment. I have no idea what Bob's excuse is. I think he's maybe just a very odd individual.

Trump is not going to win the election. He is going to get slaughtered in the popular vote, and he's going to lose the Electoral College when all of the votes are counted. He's going to lose MI by a landslide. He's going to lose MN by a landslide. He's going to lose PA. He's going to lose NV and all of the states in the NE. He's going to lose AZ. He's probably going to lose FL. I am not an expert on this stuff by any means but this is what I think is going to happen based on my reads. The mid-terms were a big indicator to me that people are going to turn out for this one, because they understand what is at stake and who this guy is.

What happens after he loses, I can't begin to predict.

I hope I'm right.


He may even lose Texas and Georgia. People freak out when Biden only leads by a couple of points in other states, but the averages in both Texas and Georgia are less than 2 points for Trump.

People can talk about Russian ads and voter suppression, and that may well cost Biden votes. But not 10-20% which Biden should easily win by. It shouldn't come down to any of that, and I don't believe it will be. But if Trump does win, the Dems need to take a seriously look at where they are as a party if they're going to be the only party to lose to an incumbent with such a shitty approval rating and 200,000 excess deaths (and counting).
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Post by kingstonlake on 2020-09-13, 11:43

MiamiSpartan wrote:
WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:I'm sick of y'alls Debbie Downerism. kl I think you are influenced by your environment. I have no idea what Bob's excuse is. I think he's maybe just a very odd individual.

Trump is not going to win the election. He is going to get slaughtered in the popular vote, and he's going to lose the Electoral College when all of the votes are counted. He's going to lose MI by a landslide. He's going to lose MN by a landslide. He's going to lose PA. He's going to lose NV and all of the states in the NE. He's going to lose AZ. He's probably going to lose FL. I am not an expert on this stuff by any means but this is what I think is going to happen based on my reads. The mid-terms were a big indicator to me that people are going to turn out for this one, because they understand what is at stake and who this guy is.

What happens after he loses, I can't begin to predict.

I hope I'm right.


He may even lose Texas and Georgia.  People freak out when Biden only leads by a couple of points in other states, but the averages in both Texas and Georgia are less than 2 points for Trump.

People can talk about Russian ads and voter suppression, and that may well cost Biden votes.  But not 10-20% which Biden should easily win by.  It shouldn't come down to any of that, and I don't believe it will be.  But if Trump does win, the Dems need to take a seriously look at where they are as a party if they're going to be the only party to lose to an incumbent with such a shitty approval rating and 200,000 excess deaths (and counting).

Wish I shared your optimistic view. If Biden can't beat Trump I don't think Dems need to look at where they are as a party, I think we need to look at where we are as a country. I still think there's a significantly large number of people who will vote for him privately while publicly calling his first four years into question.  My hope is that I'm wrong and there's a large number of people who voted for him in 16' and privately vote against him this year, or sit it out.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-13, 11:59

MiamiSpartan wrote:
WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:I'm sick of y'alls Debbie Downerism. kl I think you are influenced by your environment. I have no idea what Bob's excuse is. I think he's maybe just a very odd individual.

Trump is not going to win the election. He is going to get slaughtered in the popular vote, and he's going to lose the Electoral College when all of the votes are counted. He's going to lose MI by a landslide. He's going to lose MN by a landslide. He's going to lose PA. He's going to lose NV and all of the states in the NE. He's going to lose AZ. He's probably going to lose FL. I am not an expert on this stuff by any means but this is what I think is going to happen based on my reads. The mid-terms were a big indicator to me that people are going to turn out for this one, because they understand what is at stake and who this guy is.

What happens after he loses, I can't begin to predict.

I hope I'm right.


He may even lose Texas and Georgia.  People freak out when Biden only leads by a couple of points in other states, but the averages in both Texas and Georgia are less than 2 points for Trump.

People can talk about Russian ads and voter suppression, and that may well cost Biden votes.  But not 10-20% which Biden should easily win by.  It shouldn't come down to any of that, and I don't believe it will be.  But if Trump does win, the Dems need to take a seriously look at where they are as a party if they're going to be the only party to lose to an incumbent with such a shitty approval rating and 200,000 excess deaths (and counting).
gonna be hard to overcome the mainstream media, Russian interference, shutting down the USPS, etc.

Yea, this has nothing to do with the "Democrats as a party". That's a mainstream media talking point. Has more to do with America as a country. A racist, bigoted country with a thirst for violence and an aversion to any sort of traditional American values.

Oh, and I think Dems have a better chance at taking the Senate than they do the WH.
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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-13, 12:23

kingstonlake wrote:
MiamiSpartan wrote:


He may even lose Texas and Georgia.  People freak out when Biden only leads by a couple of points in other states, but the averages in both Texas and Georgia are less than 2 points for Trump.

People can talk about Russian ads and voter suppression, and that may well cost Biden votes.  But not 10-20% which Biden should easily win by.  It shouldn't come down to any of that, and I don't believe it will be.  But if Trump does win, the Dems need to take a seriously look at where they are as a party if they're going to be the only party to lose to an incumbent with such a shitty approval rating and 200,000 excess deaths (and counting).

Wish I shared your optimistic view. If Biden can't beat Trump I don't think Dems need to look at where they are as a party, I think we need to look at where we are as a country. I still think there's a significantly large number of people who will vote for him privately while publicly calling his first four years into question.  My hope is that I'm wrong and there's a large number of people who voted for him in 16' and privately vote against him this year, or sit it out.


Yeah, I agree with this, though I would combine it with the Dems needing to look at what they're at. What I mean is, the Dems need to look at where where they are as part of the national mood/conversation. With the rising influence of the progressives in the party, does that damage the party as a whole if the country is shifting more to the right?

FWIW, the Republicans, if Trump loses, also need to rethink their party.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-13, 14:05

I saw that the mainstream media is holding some sort of event this week for the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator to answer random questions for stupid Americans.

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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-13, 14:09

[quote="MiamiSpartan"]
kingstonlake wrote:

Wish I shared your optimistic view. If Biden can't beat Trump I don't think Dems need to look at where they are as a party, I think we need to look at where we are as a country. I still think there's a significantly large number of people who will vote for him privately while publicly calling his first four years into question.  My hope is that I'm wrong and there's a large number of people who voted for him in 16' and privately vote against him this year, or sit it out.


Yeah, I agree with this, though I would combine it with the Dems needing to look at what they're at. What I mean is, the Dems need to look at where where they are as part of the national mood/conversation. With the rising influence of the progressives in the party, does that damage the party as a whole if the country is shifting more to the right?

FWIW, the Republicans, if Trump loses, also need to rethink their party. /quote]white supremacy, hate, violence, foreign interference in elections, rape, corruption, jesus, misogyny..

they've been very loud and clear about where they are as a party.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-13, 14:10

[quote="Robert J Sakimano"]
MiamiSpartan wrote:


Yeah, I agree with this, though I would combine it with the Dems needing to look at what they're at.  What I mean is, the Dems need to look at where where they are as part of the national mood/conversation.  With the rising influence of the progressives in the party, does that damage the party as a whole if the country is shifting more to the right?

FWIW, the Republicans, if Trump loses, also need to rethink their party.

white supremacy, hate, violence, foreign interference in elections, rape, corruption, jesus, misogyny..

they've been very loud and clear about where they are as a party.
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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-13, 14:51

[quote="Robert J Sakimano"]
Robert J Sakimano wrote:

white supremacy, hate, violence, foreign interference in elections, rape, corruption, jesus, misogyny..

they've been very loud and clear about where they are as a party.


Thus why they need to rethink it if Trump loses, because it will be a rejection of Trumpism.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-13, 19:03

MiamiSpartan wrote:

Thus why they need to rethink it if Trump loses, because it will be a rejection of Trumpism.
it's who they are and who god wants them to be.

They've had plenty of times to think about it.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-14, 08:25

saw a clip of our 'pro-life' christian hero calling for the execution of people who kill police officers as his 'pro-life' christian supporters cheered.

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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-14, 10:02

in all of East Lansing (thankfully), I've only seen one or two poor souls with campaign signs in their yard promoting the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator.

I suspect they don't want to feel pity, but I truly feel bad for them. Yes, they're absolutely ignorant and stupid.. racist, bigots. But I still can't help but feel pity for them. It's just my nature. I wonder how sad and angry they must be, how they view their family, their wives, daughters, mothers, etc.
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Post by AvgMSUJoe on 2020-09-14, 15:45

Robert J Sakimano wrote:in all of East Lansing (thankfully), I've only seen one or two poor souls with campaign signs in their yard promoting the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator.

I suspect they don't want to feel pity, but I truly feel bad for them. Yes, they're absolutely ignorant and stupid.. racist, bigots. But I still can't help but feel pity for them. It's just my nature. I wonder how sad and angry they must be, how they view their family, their wives, daughters, mothers, etc.

Out here in the sticks the signs are 4 to 1 pro-racist.

Some are defining him on their sign as the "Pro-life" candidate.
(lying his way to 190k+ dead & would kill your insurance coverage in a heartbeat if he could.)

Poor poor brainwashed morons.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-14, 16:12

AvgMSUJoe wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:in all of East Lansing (thankfully), I've only seen one or two poor souls with campaign signs in their yard promoting the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator.

I suspect they don't want to feel pity, but I truly feel bad for them. Yes, they're absolutely ignorant and stupid.. racist, bigots. But I still can't help but feel pity for them. It's just my nature. I wonder how sad and angry they must be, how they view their family, their wives, daughters, mothers, etc.

Out here in the sticks the signs are 4 to 1 pro-racist.

Some are defining him on their sign as the "Pro-life" candidate.
(lying his way to 190k+ dead & would kill your insurance coverage in a heartbeat if he could.)

Poor poor brainwashed morons.
America is a stupid country.

as I've been saying, gonna take a lot of us decent folks to overcome the rigging of the 2020 election... Russia, the mainstream media, the USPS, the glorification and, indeed, celebration of stupidity.. we're gonna have to show up like never before.

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Post by kingstonlake on 2020-09-14, 16:53

10-1 here pro racist.
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Post by kingstonlake on 2020-09-14, 17:07

The local appliance retailer had a not so subtle "help keep America great" line in their radio ads recently. I guess buying from them helps keep America great? Normally I would buy local but I took my business (washer & dryer) to home Depot. It was obvious what they were implying. I also informed my sister who is building a home here in the spring and my other sister who bought a cabin this summer. Not sure if their line of advertising makes or costs them sales but I noticed it isn't in their ads anymore. So they've lost a washer and dryer and two homes needing appliances worth of business. Lol.
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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-14, 17:38

0-0 split in my neighborhood. Political signs aren't allowed. The 2020 Presidential campaign. - Page 16 55953254

I haven't really been in other residential neighborhoods very much lately.
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Post by Floyd Robertson on 2020-09-14, 17:52

It's funny this political sign discussion came up. I was driving home from the park a couple hours ago and noticed a Trump/Pence lawn sign. Right across the street was a Biden/Harris sign; the latter isn't too common around here. Seeing those signs made me wonder who the hell are these people that need to signal their support? It's not like these signs boost candidate awareness, are going to change someone's mind or sway an undecided's vote. People are weird is all I can say.
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Post by Rocinante on 2020-09-14, 18:10

Signs for smaller races are helpful I think. Even in my little town, sometimes you don’t know who all the candidates even are. Presidential signs. Yeah. It’s a statement more than an advertisement.
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Post by Floyd Robertson on 2020-09-14, 18:12

Rocinante wrote:Signs for smaller races are helpful I think. Even in my little town, sometimes you don’t know who all the candidates even are. Presidential signs. Yeah. It’s a statement more than an advertisement.

I agree about local race signs. I almost added that to my post as an afterthought.
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Post by Rocinante on 2020-09-14, 18:21

Great minds Floyd. Great minds.
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Post by kingstonlake on 2020-09-14, 18:24

My parents next door neighbor has three trump signs by the road and a big flag on his dock. I was over the other day adjusting my parents hoist and he says “see all those Trump signs? You don’t see many Biden signs, do ya? I said “were not in a cult” he looks at me and says “you’re not a trump fan?” I said “No, I’ll pass in that”. Lol
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Post by InTenSity on 2020-09-14, 19:55

MiamiSpartan wrote:0-0 split in my neighborhood. Political signs aren't allowed. The 2020 Presidential campaign. - Page 16 55953254

I haven't really been in other residential neighborhoods very much lately.
I see all the trucks with their huge trump flags. Then again it seems like people here think America will turn into Venezuela if Biden wins.
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Post by GRR Spartan on 2020-09-14, 22:02

I haven't had the nerve to ask the 3 or 4 retirees I've seen driving Ford CMax's why they have Trump stickers on their cars and are wearing MAGA hats.

Seems to be a contradiction in terms
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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-15, 12:17

The oldest, continuing publishing magazine in the country, Scientific American, for the very first time in its 175 year history, has endorsed a presidential candidate. Hint: it's not the guy that thinks he knows more than scientists.
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Post by Floyd Robertson on 2020-09-15, 12:24

MiamiSpartan wrote:The oldest, continuing publishing magazine in the country, Scientific American, for the very first time in its 175 year history, has endorsed a presidential candidate. Hint: it's not the guy that thinks he knows more than scientists.

Just came here to post that.

[tw]1305854127721910275[/tw]
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-15, 12:33

MiamiSpartan wrote:The oldest, continuing publishing magazine in the country, Scientific American, for the very first time in its 175 year history, has endorsed a presidential candidate. Hint: it's not the guy that thinks he knows more than scientists.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-15, 12:39

where do y'all go for any sort of polling data/analysis??

my wife checks 538 periodically ('cause Nate Silver.. Go Trojans!) - she keeps me up to date on a few trends, etc. that he notices and reports on.

from my expert cursory review, the empirical data seems to indicate that the race has been very static. I don't think anyone is sitting at home wondering who they'll vote for.

The godforsaken debates (which are mainstream media-created events that don't even resemble a debate) probably won't have any sort of impact on polling. I can't see anyone sitting at home and going "ya know, the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator really made some great points about income inequality in the minority community as it relates to quality K-12 education and access affordable healthcare.. it was a very refreshing viewpoint and he articulated it so clearly. I think I'll vote for him"..
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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-15, 13:01

Robert J Sakimano wrote:where do y'all go for any sort of polling data/analysis??

my wife checks 538 periodically ('cause Nate Silver.. Go Trojans!) - she keeps me up to date on a few trends, etc. that he notices and reports on.

from my expert cursory review, the empirical data seems to indicate that the race has been very static. I don't think anyone is sitting at home wondering who they'll vote for.

The godforsaken debates (which are mainstream media-created events that don't even resemble a debate) probably won't have any sort of impact on polling. I can't see anyone sitting at home and going "ya know, the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator really made some great points about income inequality in the minority community as it relates to quality K-12 education and access affordable healthcare.. it was a very refreshing viewpoint and he articulated it so clearly. I think I'll vote for him"..

Someone around here is always telling us to ignore the polls because they're all mainstream media fiction.

In any event, not much should be read into any single poll. The averages of multiple polls, however are better, and 538 usually releases an average about every week. Others do averages, too, so any averages are good because it increases the sample size, includes various methodologies, etc.

Heres the important thing with the polls, though, when looking at how they were "wrong" in 2016. Were they actually wrong? Hillary was leading in the polls, but she only had 42-45%, rarely if ever over 45%. Trump would have 38-42% or so. That's a huge portion of undecided, and Trump did better in the undecideds.

But as you referred to, Bob, there aren't many undecideds now. I saw a comparison to the same time in 2016, and there were 18% undecideds, compared to 7% now. On top of that, Biden has consistently polled around 49-52% (including the battle ground states) or better. Rarely has he been below 45% (which again, Hillary rarely got over that amount).

Bottom line is that Trump has to get pretty much every single currently undecided vote to even have a chance.
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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-15, 13:05

By the way, speaking of how single polls should not be read into by themselves, some of you have probably seen that poll that showed Trump was leading among Florida Hispanics that has gotten a lot of press? That was a statewide poll of all races. They extrapolated Hispanics because that segment stood out with surprising numbers, which is newsworthy. But it was really based on about 100 people and the Hispanic portion would have a margin of error of +/- 10%.

As an aside, on the subject of that poll, it is worth noting that while Hispanics make up 27% of the Florida population, they only make up about 15% of registered voters. So it isn't as significant of a group down here as people are inclined to think.
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Post by Rocinante on 2020-09-15, 13:22

It’s certainly important to look critically at what polls are telling us. At the same time a 6-7 point lead isn’t the landslide it looks like with the voter suppression efforts underway and the silent trump voters out there and the electoral college advantage that is built in to the electoral college system. I am not confident in any way.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-15, 13:30

MiamiSpartan wrote:
Someone around here is always telling us to ignore the polls because they're all mainstream media fiction.

and that someone is correct.

In any event, not much should be read into any single poll. The averages of multiple polls, however are better, and 538 usually releases an average about every week. Others do averages, too, so any averages are good because it increases the sample size, includes various methodologies, etc.

Heres the important thing with the polls, though, when looking at how they were "wrong" in 2016. Were they actually wrong? Hillary was leading in the polls, but she only had 42-45%, rarely if ever over 45%. Trump would have 38-42% or so. That's a huge portion of undecided, and Trump did better in the undecideds.

But as you referred to, Bob, there aren't many undecideds now. I saw a comparison to the same time in 2016, and there were 18% undecideds, compared to 7% now. On top of that, Biden has consistently polled around 49-52% (including the battle ground states) or better. Rarely has he been below 45% (which again, Hillary rarely got over that amount).

Bottom line is that Trump has to get pretty much every single currently undecided vote to even have a chance.
I hear ya.

I do wonder, though, how the polling corrects for Russian interference, USPS implications, purging of voter rolls in minority areas, closing of precincts in minority areas, etc - if those variables can even be factored in.

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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-15, 13:31

MiamiSpartan wrote:By the way, speaking of how single polls should not be read into by themselves, some of you have probably seen that poll that showed Trump was leading among Florida Hispanics that has gotten a lot of press? That was a statewide poll of all races. They extrapolated Hispanics because that segment stood out with surprising numbers, which is newsworthy. But it was really based on about 100 people and the Hispanic portion would have a margin of error of +/- 10%.

As an aside, on the subject of that poll, it is worth noting that while Hispanics make up 27% of the Florida population, they only make up about 15% of registered voters. So it isn't as significant of a group down here as people are inclined to think.
you're smarter than I am.

(not really an achievement worthy of a celebration, mind you.. but I wanted to share that with you).

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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-15, 13:32

Rocinante wrote:It’s certainly important to look critically at what polls are telling us. At the same time a 6-7 point lead isn’t the landslide it looks like with the voter suppression efforts underway and the silent trump voters out there and the electoral college advantage that is built in to the electoral college system. I am not confident in any way.
that is advisable.
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Post by kingstonlake on 2020-09-15, 15:02

MiamiSpartan wrote:By the way, speaking of how single polls should not be read into by themselves, some of you have probably seen that poll that showed Trump was leading among Florida Hispanics that has gotten a lot of press? That was a statewide poll of all races. They extrapolated Hispanics because that segment stood out with surprising numbers, which is newsworthy. But it was really based on about 100 people and the Hispanic portion would have a margin of error of +/- 10%.

As an aside, on the subject of that poll, it is worth noting that while Hispanics make up 27% of the Florida population, they only make up about 15% of registered voters. So it isn't as significant of a group down here as people are inclined to think.

Expanding on that a little. I don’t see how the most ardent Trump supporter wouldn’t concede hes not getting the same amount of votes as he had in 2016 using only those that voted for him. His retention rate of those votes can’t be the same. Impossible. No idea what the percentage would be. That being said has he flipped enough of those that voted for Hillary to offset that number? I doubt it. Highly. So his task seems to be having to expand his appeal from 2016. Is that mine-able? Are those people out there? Essentially he has to offset the votes he’s going to lose and expand upon that. 2018 seems to indicate it’s a very tough road.
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Post by Rocinante on 2020-09-15, 15:31

I think participation will be up from 2016 so he may get more votes than he got in 16. Plus he’s the incumbent and republicans who just vote with the party will vote for him. Percentage of the vote? Sure, maybe he doesn’t get what he got. But you know the electoral fuckery that will be at play.
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Post by kingstonlake on 2020-09-15, 16:01

Rocinante wrote:I think participation will be up from 2016 so he may get more votes than he got in 16. Plus he’s the incumbent and republicans who just vote with the party will vote for him. Percentage of the vote? Sure, maybe he doesn’t get what he got. But you know the electoral fuckery that will be at play.

Yup, I will remain highly skeptical. I keep telling myself the numbers can’t be wrong. But I’ve been fooled before. If the window is now 7% like Miami says it seems tough for Trump. Love to see what 2018 showed. What percentage did Trump lose. Granted he wasn’t on the ballot but those people did find the motivation to go out and essentially vote against him or his preferred candidates. I mean what’s his resume padder since then? His coronavirus response? Unemployment? 5% of the population and 20% of the worlds deaths?
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Post by MiamiSpartan on 2020-09-15, 16:04

Rocinante wrote:I think participation will be up from 2016 so he may get more votes than he got in 16. Plus he’s the incumbent and republicans who just vote with the party will vote for him. Percentage of the vote? Sure, maybe he doesn’t get what he got. But you know the electoral fuckery that will be at play.


In 2016, he got a lot of people that dont usually vote, at least not for a major party candidate. The ones that are sick of the system and with whom the "outsider" card played well. A number of those being Bernie voters in the primary. But I tend to think he maxed out on that for the most part. Yeah, he might have brought in a few more, like if there were any more of the racist militia-type woodsman that didn't vote for him, but have loved the dog whistles he blows to them. But that can't be all that significant of an addition.

When I look at polls and when I talked above about the averages, Biden's numbers, etc., I'm talking about the state polls in the battleground states. Biden has consistently had 49%+ in the key states, so Trump needs to overwhelmingly dominate the undecideds in most of those to have a chance.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano on 2020-09-16, 06:42

seems like now the "pro-life", racist, bigoted christian sexual predator's COVID plan is just to let Americans die.

he calls it "herd mentality".

I'm sure the 'pro-life' community is outraged.

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Post by Floyd Robertson on 2020-09-16, 08:50

[tw]1306210920436314113[/tw]

Unbelievable that Trump would go on national TV and lie. Over and over again. Calling the lack of a national mask mandate Biden's fault. The 2020 Presidential campaign. - Page 16 502811600

And Laura Ingraham called the town hall an "ambush" The 2020 Presidential campaign. - Page 16 502811600
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