The Electoral Consequences of the 1/6 Hearings and Dobbs

Do you think there will be electoral consequences for the GOP following the Dobbs case? 

The GOP's celebration of the Dobbs decision from within Congress appears more muted than expected, possibly because they fear this creates momentum for a larger than predicted fall turnout for Democrats. Abortion was a great issue to have unresolved because it kept some voters reliably Republican. 

Beyond Congress, do you think Dobbs damages Trump, especially after adding the findings of the 1/6 hearings? 

While Trump's core supporters will never move out of his orbit, others were less excited to vote for him. Some did so out of party loyalty, statistically Republican voters are more likely to coalesce around and support the GOP nominee. Some also voted for him for no other reason than the promise of conservative judges and overturning Roe. I am not sure what percentage of Trump voters the latter two account for - he did get 10 million more votes in 2020 - and it could be a very small percentage. However, part of me wonders if a number of Trump voters are saying, "We got the judges, Roe was overturned, and this guy is more trouble than he is worth." In other words, Trump will get the Trump treatment. He has outlived his usefulness and is now disposable. 

Of course, if the above is the case, it opens the door for somebody like DeSantis. Although I would enjoy watching Trump and DeSantis fight in a primary largely because it would tear Trump world a part, DeSantis might even be more dangerous because he is competent, organized, and knows exactly how to pull the levers of government to punish his rivals and undermine liberal democracy. Also, we would have to deal with MiamiSpartan and InTenSity constantly pushing the guy on us in tBin.

For the Christian Nationalists Dobbs is the reward to keep voting for Trump.

For the Big Money Conservatives, the Courts rulings are the reward to keep spending money.

Trapper Gus wrote:For the Christian Nationalists Dobbs is the reward to keep voting for Trump.

For the Big Money Conservatives, the Courts rulings are the reward to keep spending money.

Why is it a reason to keep voting for him if other candidates will serve the same values with fewer headaches? Trump is purely transactional, and it may turn out that some of his voters are equally transactional. He delivered the ultimate prize, so will some GOP voters now look for a candidate that will push the save nativist values but without so much drama? As I said above, Trump has a sizable base that will never abandon him, but other Trump voters were reluctant Trump voters and did so out of party loyalty or his willingness to push shared values.

Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds: Far from consolidating his support, the former president appears weakened in his party, especially with younger and college-educated Republicans. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is the most popular alternative.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/us/politics/trump-approval-polling-2024.html

I’m going to have to get some stats on mail in voting in 2020 before I make a decision.

Dobbs along with the recent gun and EPA rulings by the court should be a huge motivation for Democrats. But I doubt it.

Turtleneck wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:For the Christian Nationalists Dobbs is the reward to keep voting for Trump.

For the Big Money Conservatives, the Courts rulings are the reward to keep spending money.

Why is it a reason to keep voting for him if other candidates will serve the same values with fewer headaches? Trump is purely transactional, and it may turn out that some of his voters are equally transactional. He delivered the ultimate prize, so will some GOP voters now look for a candidate that will push the save nativist values but without so much drama? As I said above, Trump has a sizable base that will never abandon him, but other Trump voters were reluctant Trump voters and did so out of party loyalty or his willingness to push shared values.

Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds: Far from consolidating his support, the former president appears weakened in his party, especially with younger and college-educated Republicans. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is the most popular alternative.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/us/politics/trump-approval-polling-2024.html

I'm going with Bob on this one.

They will vote for him because emotionally he is their hero.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Turtleneck wrote:

Why is it a reason to keep voting for him if other candidates will serve the same values with fewer headaches? Trump is purely transactional, and it may turn out that some of his voters are equally transactional. He delivered the ultimate prize, so will some GOP voters now look for a candidate that will push the save nativist values but without so much drama? As I said above, Trump has a sizable base that will never abandon him, but other Trump voters were reluctant Trump voters and did so out of party loyalty or his willingness to push shared values.

Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds: Far from consolidating his support, the former president appears weakened in his party, especially with younger and college-educated Republicans. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is the most popular alternative.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/us/politics/trump-approval-polling-2024.html

I'm going with Bob on this one.

They will vote for him because emotionally he is their hero.

In a Trump-like move, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is hawking a gold 'Freedom Team Membership Card' to his supporters

Also comes with your very own white privilege perk.

Jake from State Farm wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

I'm going with Bob on this one.

They will vote for him because emotionally he is their hero.

In a Trump-like move, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is hawking a gold 'Freedom Team Membership Card' to his supporters

Also comes with your very own white privilege perk.

Now we have the snake oil salespeople trying to out snake oil each other.