Hurricane Milton

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
There are probably a couple of different reasons. Easiest reason is the person who has 'ridden out' lots of other storms and they don't need to leave because of wind and rain. Another is that a lot of times a small wobble from the center can move the storm 100s of miles into another direction. That is kind of what happened with Ft. Myers. Although they were always in the cone of uncertainty, they were near the bottom of it, I think about a day before landfall, maybe less, it because clear they were going to get hit and by that time its too late to evacuate. I think more people are taking heed to evacuate, especially the islands. I can come up with other reasons. A lot of it is people just not wanting to leave the comfort of their home and thinking nothing is going to happen to them.

Hotels have minibars and they don’t charge you for turning the air down to 62

InTenSity wrote:

Jake from State Farm wrote:

My niece lives off of 75th Street in Bradenton. They're staying. She said she doesn't want to end up stuck in the I-75 parking lot. They did get flooded by Helene.

My grandparents are right there. 75th and manatee, if think it's called green acres, a 55 and older retirement community.

It's a nice area through there, hopefully it stays that way.

Friend of mine has a place in Sanibel Island. He basically just finished redoing everything after Ian and now expects it to be destroyed again. They’ve had the place since 1992 and won’t be rebuilding after this.

I.B. Fine wrote:

The Pantry wrote:Stayed at South Seas Resort on Captiva Island couple times about 25 years ago.  Decided it was my favorite FL destination.  Pretty laid back and quiet.  Great beach.  Some excellent restaurants just outside the resort.

Looked up the area on google maps.  Looks nothing like I remember it.  Resort looks like a mess from the last hurricane that busted up the bridge to Sanibel.  Lot of vegetation gone.  No boats in the marina.


Sad to know that place is gonna get hit again.

Visited the Mucky Duck in April, and was surprised how good things looked around it. The big storm surge from Ian was further south and was still evident on Sanibel.
I was in the area 3 days after it hit and it's come a long way

Never went to the MD. There were a few restaurants just off the main drag into the resort that were very good. One of them included an interesting little museum. Again, was years ago and those places have likely changed hands a few times. Went to the Bubble Room one night after dinner for a drink just to check it out.

180mph now.

Heat Miser wrote:180mph now.

That's a mad bastard. Add Cat 6 to the scale?

Heat Miser wrote:180mph now.

That’s gonna push a lot of water.

If it makes you guys feel any better, we’re having just spectacular weather here in East Lansing. It’s like a second summer but temps are cooler.

The Pantry wrote:

I.B. Fine wrote:

Visited the Mucky Duck in April, and was surprised how good things looked around it. The big storm surge from Ian was further south and was still evident on Sanibel.
I was in the area 3 days after it hit and it's come a long way

Never went to the MD. There were a few restaurants just off the main drag into the resort that were very good. One of them included an interesting little museum. Again, was years ago and those places have likely changed hands a few times. Went to the Bubble Room one night after dinner for a drink just to check it out.

I've spent a lot of time over on Sanibel, Captiva and Ft Myers Beach. 2 of our regular hotels had to be permanently torn down. One of those is owned by a small company that owned 4 hotels on Sanibel and 3 had to be torn down. Another of our regular hotels just partially re-opened in August after about 22 months closed. It's awful to see, and there is so few places to stay now that the prices are insane. We've driven around over there a couple of times since, but haven't stayed in the area since about 3 months before Ian. We used to go at least for a couple of days a couple of times a year.

InTenSity wrote:

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Hi Florida posters, good luck

Can you help explain the reluctance for some people to leave? I don’t get it. If I were told that tornados were coming several days from now and there for sure would be tornados in a reasonably small area around my house and it may not directly hit my house but it could… I feel like I would take my family out of here for a day. 

I get that some people don’t have the means. That’s not who I mean. I mean the people that could leave but don’t because of some kind of bullheadedness that I don’t understand? Or maybe some other reason

There are probably a couple of different reasons. Easiest reason is the person who has 'ridden out' lots of other storms and they don't need to leave because of wind and rain. Another is that a lot of times a small wobble from the center can move the storm 100s of miles into another direction. That is kind of what happened with Ft. Myers. Although they were always in the cone of uncertainty, they were near the bottom of it, I think about a day before landfall, maybe less, it because clear they were going to get hit and by that time its too late to evacuate. I think more people are taking heed to evacuate, especially the islands. I can come up with other reasons. A lot of it is people just not wanting to leave the comfort of their home and thinking nothing is going to happen to them.

I think a distinction should also be made between those in mandatory evacuation zones and not in evacuation zones. These zones are based on flooding, mostly storm surge That is overwhelmingly the cause of death in hurricanes, not wind. Whether it's storm surge like Ian, or other causes of flooding like Katrina (levees breaking) or Helene with the rivers and mud slides, the deadliest storms involve bad flooding.

I can't explain why people in mandatory evacuation zones would not evacuate. Especially when you are within a few blocks of the beach and they are expecting 10+ feet storm surge. Some people don't believe it, some would rather be the captain that goes down with their ship. I don't know.

But for those not in evacuation zones, if their home is less than 30 years old (even better less than 20 years old) and they have shutters or impact windows, they don't need to evacuate. Some will choose to, but those that stay aren't being crazy.

Ok. I’ll be that guy.

So Desantis is urging people to obey evacuation orders? I’m sure there’s a mask joke I could make….

MiamiSpartan wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
There are probably a couple of different reasons. Easiest reason is the person who has 'ridden out' lots of other storms and they don't need to leave because of wind and rain. Another is that a lot of times a small wobble from the center can move the storm 100s of miles into another direction. That is kind of what happened with Ft. Myers. Although they were always in the cone of uncertainty, they were near the bottom of it, I think about a day before landfall, maybe less, it because clear they were going to get hit and by that time its too late to evacuate. I think more people are taking heed to evacuate, especially the islands. I can come up with other reasons. A lot of it is people just not wanting to leave the comfort of their home and thinking nothing is going to happen to them.

I think a distinction should also be made between those in mandatory evacuation zones and not in evacuation zones. These zones are based on flooding, mostly storm surge That is overwhelmingly the cause of death in hurricanes, not wind. Whether it's storm surge like Ian, or other causes of flooding like Katrina (levees breaking) or Helene with the rivers and mud slides, the deadliest storms involve bad flooding.

I can't explain why people in mandatory evacuation zones would not evacuate. Especially when you are within a few blocks of the beach and they are expecting 10+ feet storm surge. Some people don't believe it, some would rather be the captain that goes down with their ship. I don't know.

But for those not in evacuation zones, if their home is less than 30 years old (even better less than 20 years old) and they have shutters or impact windows, they don't need to evacuate. Some will choose to, but those that stay aren't being crazy.

Up to a fifteen foot storm surge is predicted. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be hanging out hoping my windows hold back the water.

InTenSity wrote:Finally my Aunt and Uncle and Grandparents have decided to come to my place. I think it will be a long drive, but IMO this is the best option they have. My aunt said that all the neighbors are staying and no one is evacuating. They aren't in an evacuation zone, I just think they would be stranded there for days. This is a worst case scenario for the area, at this point the best case is if it goes north of St. Pete.

Having spent a few days in immediate post-Ian Ft Myers, and we even had a generator, I'd get out of town and hang with you...

Jake from State Farm wrote:

MiamiSpartan wrote:

I think a distinction should also be made between those in mandatory evacuation zones and not in evacuation zones. These zones are based on flooding, mostly storm surge That is overwhelmingly the cause of death in hurricanes, not wind. Whether it's storm surge like Ian, or other causes of flooding like Katrina (levees breaking) or Helene with the rivers and mud slides, the deadliest storms involve bad flooding.

I can't explain why people in mandatory evacuation zones would not evacuate. Especially when you are within a few blocks of the beach and they are expecting 10+ feet storm surge. Some people don't believe it, some would rather be the captain that goes down with their ship. I don't know.

But for those not in evacuation zones, if their home is less than 30 years old (even better less than 20 years old) and they have shutters or impact windows, they don't need to evacuate. Some will choose to, but those that stay aren't being crazy.

Up to a fifteen foot storm surge is predicted. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be hanging out hoping my windows hold back the water.

The worst hurricane in US history was in Galveston. They don't talk about the wind damage, they remember the couple thousand people that drowned against the ceiling of their homes
Houses can be built for wind, not that kind of storm surge.

I.B. Fine wrote:

Jake from State Farm wrote:

Up to a fifteen foot storm surge is predicted. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be hanging out hoping my windows hold back the water.

The worst hurricane in US history was in Galveston. They don't talk about the wind damage, they remember the couple thousand people that drowned against the ceiling of their homes
Houses can be built for wind, not that kind of storm surge.

Jake from State Farm wrote:

MiamiSpartan wrote:

I think a distinction should also be made between those in mandatory evacuation zones and not in evacuation zones. These zones are based on flooding, mostly storm surge That is overwhelmingly the cause of death in hurricanes, not wind. Whether it's storm surge like Ian, or other causes of flooding like Katrina (levees breaking) or Helene with the rivers and mud slides, the deadliest storms involve bad flooding.

I can't explain why people in mandatory evacuation zones would not evacuate. Especially when you are within a few blocks of the beach and they are expecting 10+ feet storm surge. Some people don't believe it, some would rather be the captain that goes down with their ship. I don't know.

But for those not in evacuation zones, if their home is less than 30 years old (even better less than 20 years old) and they have shutters or impact windows, they don't need to evacuate. Some will choose to, but those that stay aren't being crazy.

Up to a fifteen foot storm surge is predicted. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be hanging out hoping my windows hold back the water.

If you aren't in an evacuation zones, the storm surge isn't going to reach you. That's where the building codes, windows protection, etc., does come in to play.

This is about the most accurate description of Floridians' response to weather:

The storm in front of Milton looks like it's gonna screw with southern FL first.

The Pantry wrote:The storm in front of Milton looks like it's gonna screw with southern FL first.

Pretty sure that storm is steering Milton away from Miami.

Looks like it might be trying to fall apart. Eye almost gone and top of the hurricane getting sheared off. Still gonna be a huge mess.

kingstonlake wrote:Looks like it might be trying to fall apart. Eye almost gone and top of the hurricane getting sheared off. Still gonna be a huge mess.

Trying to fall apart isnt quite the case.  More like just slightly weakening.  That was always predicted, which is why up until last night, it was predicted to drop to a Cat 3 before landfall.  Then late last night, they upped that to a Cat 4 at landfall.  It will still be a Cat 1 or higher when it leaves Florida over the Atlantic.

The windshear, while helping to weaken it, or at least keep it from going back up to a 5, also will grow it in size, which will stretch out the TS force winds to a larger area.

MiamiSpartan wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:Looks like it might be trying to fall apart. Eye almost gone and top of the hurricane getting sheared off. Still gonna be a huge mess.

Trying to fall apart isnt quite the case.  More like just slightly weakening.  That was always predicted, which is why up until last night, it was predicted to drop to a Cat 3 before landfall.  Then late last night, they upped that to a Cat 4 at landfall.  It will still be a Cat 1 or higher when it leaves Florida over the Atlantic.

The windshear, while helping to weaken it, or at least keep it from going back up to a 5, also will grow it in size, which will stretch out the TS force winds to a larger area.

Hopefully the dry air to the west and north eats as much of it up as possible. (Im not a meteorologist but I did watch the weather channel for 5 minutes this morning)

Side note. My 10 year old daughter was sitting in the rocking chair this morning and I caught myself explaining hurricanes to her. She was actually asking question because she saw Marco on the TV screen. My wife stood around the corner rolling her eyes at me. I mean mugged her.

InTenSity wrote:

DWags wrote:


Honestly.   I don’t wanna get political because our thoughts are with you guys down there and that’s what comes the most,.  However,  things like this used to unify America now, they separate us.   Blame whatever Party, but there should be no finger pointing at any leader, or lying about anything, it should be “what can we do and how can we do it?”

I don't understand why people don't believe the news but they believe random Karen from Montreal that the roads in Florida are all gridlocked and there is no gas. That's the type of shit that people believe and then when debating if they should leave, convince themselves that they will be stuck on 75 trying to get away from the storm. Will it take longer, yes, is there gas and no gridlock, yes, except a few places. Unfortunately then if you really go to the PD sites or places that have webcams, they tell the 10 people who follow them that there is no traffic, but no one goes to those sites because a fucking picture has more credence than the truth. Its disgusting.

I think that most of us are pretty insulated from the frighteningly large number of people out there that suddenly believe that we can control the weather and that we’re doing so to influence the election (which, I don’t know a ton about controlling the weather, but it seems like the hardest possible path to fixing an election. Like, other countries have done that shit for years. We could figure out an easier way.)

Anyway the answer is a combination of decades of doing nothing about people’s mental health and the internet, a shockingly revolutionary technology that we were wholly unprepared for. When you’ve got raving lunatics about that can hide behind screen names, they can make crazy thoughts sound a lot more sensible, and get them a lot more exposure, than when they were exclusively the domain of standing on a box outside of wells hall screaming. Theres a difference between having to smell the person screaming behind wells hall and realizing that they don’t know what showers are and are probably full of shit and reading the thoughts of “reppinjesus4lyfe69” on Twitter in the comfort of your own home. People don’t realize that it’s literally the same person.

Has anyone suggested nuking the hurricane yet?

He’s going to leave. Then he’ll come back with his harrowing story of survival on the high seas. And grifters will get millions of views. And dopes will say “it’s not so bad” and end up dying next time.

Then we’ll all say why didn’t they leave and not be able to figure it out

Some perhaps "glass half full" points to consider:

1. Hurricane force winds "only" extend 35 miles out from the center. This is a fairly compact storm. This is good relatively speaking.
2. Moving at 17mph. It's fairly fast moving. This is also good relatively speaking. Max exposure to those winds would be 4ish hours.
3. Moving laterally across the state limits the swath of damage v diagonally or vertically.
4. Landfall at night. Not so good.
5. Storm surge is the big variable. Low tide for Tampa is 2:27pm today. High tide isn't until 6am tomorrow. Tidal range in Tampa and the gulf generally is only 3ft (for reference, The Bay of Fundy in Canada has the largest tidal range in the world, with a maximum tidal range of 53 feet (16 meters)), so not a huge difference there. In my experience, storm surge estimates are generally overstated. I hope that's the case here. And again, compact storm means more compact storm surge.
6. The north side is generally weaker than the south side. If landfall is south of Tampa, that's a relatively good thing (if you're in Tampa or north of it).

Disclaimer: this is NOT a stay where you are, everything's fine post. Get the Fuck Out! As a hurricane veteran, I would absolutely GTFO.

Heat Miser wrote:Some perhaps "glass half full" points to consider:

1. Hurricane force winds "only" extend 35 miles out from the center. This is a fairly compact storm. This is good relatively speaking.
2. Moving at 17mph. It's fairly fast moving. This is also good relatively speaking. Max exposure to those winds would be 4ish hours.
3. Moving laterally across the state limits the swath of damage v diagonally or vertically.
4. Landfall at night. Not so good.
5. Storm surge is the big variable. Low tide for Tampa is 2:27pm today. High tide isn't until 6am tomorrow. Tidal range in Tampa and the gulf generally is only 3ft (for reference, The Bay of Fundy in Canada has the largest tidal range in the world, with a maximum tidal range of 53 feet (16 meters)), so not a huge difference there. In my experience, storm surge estimates are generally overstated. I hope that's the case here. And again, compact storm means more compact storm surge.
6. The north side is generally weaker than the south side. If landfall is south of Tampa, that's a relatively good thing (if you're in Tampa or north of it).

Disclaimer: this is NOT a stay where you are, everything's fine post. Get the Fuck Out! As a hurricane veteran, I would absolutely GTFO.

tSwill >> TWC. Heat needs to do a live stream from the streets with the wind and rain battering him.

I just manscaped in case a firefighter needs to rescue me.

tGreenWay wrote:I just manscaped in case a firefighter needs to rescue me.

Did you write your name on your dick with sharpie ?

Down to 120mph (Cat 3) with no expansion of hurricane force winds. Relatively good news.

Tons of tornados earlier in the everglades, and then/now in the West Palm Beach up to Vero Beach. The biggest single day tornado outbreak in Florida history.

A good friend of mine is an amateur storm chaser and has been out there all day. Most of his stuff has been from further away, but this is one of his closer videos from today (sorry, you'll have to tilt your heads).
[tw]1844120415658180829?t=legt7o2MbegDPEpEWgXuTQ&s=19[/tw]

The Pantry wrote:

tGreenWay wrote:I just manscaped in case a firefighter needs to rescue me.

Did you write your name on your dick with sharpie ?

No need. It’s pretty well known in these parts.