Bump when these numbers move

Zurn wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

When I bought my first house, during the Reagan administration, the mortgage rate was 15%.

And tell the story again about how your first job paid 10 cents an hour back when Truman was president.

My first full time job paid about 17k, 1977.  New cars were about 3k.  

It have been pointed out that due to the Great Recession mortgage rates have been much lower than they typically were since 2008.  7% is only high for people who don't know financial history before 2008.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Remember folks, the stock market was never this high when Trump was President.

The eight-week winning streak for the S&P 500 index (SPX) is its longest since 2017.

bump

”The S&P 500 index returned 26% including dividends in 2023, more than 2x the average annual return of 12% since 1986.”

bump

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs.

In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $34.27. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent. In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $29.42.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in December. In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 39.8 hours, and overtime remained at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 45,000, from +150,000 to +105,000, and the change for November was revised down by 26,000, from +199,000 to +173,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 71,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Expect the market to fall on these numbers.

bump!

"US added 216,000 jobs in December, unemployment remains low at 3.7%. Why this is devastating news for Joe Biden's re-election campaign".

sincerely,

the mainstream media

Robert J Sakimano wrote:"US added 216,000 jobs in December, unemployment remains low at 3.7%. Why this is devastating news for Joe Biden's re-election campaign".

sincerely,

the mainstream media

To be fair, this news does not fair well for the stock market, which is anticipating some weaker news. 7 rates cuts are factored in for 2024 and good employment numbers runs counter to that, meaning rates will remain higher for longer and prevent the stock market from moving higher.

Motown Spartan wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:"US added 216,000 jobs in December, unemployment remains low at 3.7%. Why this is devastating news for Joe Biden's re-election campaign".

sincerely,

the mainstream media

To be fair, this news does not fair well for the stock market, which is anticipating some weaker news. 7 rates cuts are factored in for 2024 and good employment numbers runs counter to that, meaning rates will remain higher for longer and prevent the stock market from moving higher.  

I don't know how any of that works, really, or even what it means.. I deal in the human condition. What I do know is that the mainstream media needs to get Biden out of office, like, yesterday.

that said, I admire your aptitude.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Motown Spartan wrote:

To be fair, this news does not fair well for the stock market, which is anticipating some weaker news. 7 rates cuts are factored in for 2024 and good employment numbers runs counter to that, meaning rates will remain higher for longer and prevent the stock market from moving higher.  

I don't know how any of that works, really, or even what it means.. I deal in the human condition. What I do know is that the mainstream media needs to get Biden out of office, like, yesterday.

that said, I admire your aptitude.

I get that Bob, I really do. Ideally, no one would ever have to worry about where their next meal is coming from. I spend the majority of my day working to ensure my client's financial security for the rest of their lives and for the VAST majority of Americans, even those receiving pensions, there is a direct correlation (one could even say causation), with the performance of the stock (and bond) market.

From an economics perspective, a few more hundred thousand people without jobs right now would have a positive economic benefit to a few hundred million more people.

THAT being said...those few hundred million more people not realizing that economic benefit is why this news is likely to hamper Biden's re-election.

THAT THAT being said...for the greater good, it would be best for Biden to get re-elected vs...the other guy*, right?

THAT THAT THAT being said...a worse job report NOW would mean a lesser chance of the other guy* getting elected.

*the orange, christian, sexual assaulter and predator

As a detailed focused guy, I find it crazy that the markets pay attention to the preliminary numbers but ignore the follow ups.

Look at the downward revisions for October & November and tell me how the employment market is going great guns.

Also, these are seasonally adjusted numbers, so they are not real.

And there is the yearly season number adjustment factors modification, either it was in this report or will be the next one, which muddy things up even more. I get the "man on the street" doesn't understand but the investment professionals should.

Trapper Gus wrote:As a detailed focused guy, I find it crazy that the markets pay attention to the preliminary numbers but ignore the follow ups.

Look at the downward revisions for October & November and tell me how the employment market is going great guns.

Also, these are seasonally adjusted numbers, so they are not real.

And there is the yearly season number adjustment factors modification, either it was in this report or will be the next one, which muddy things up even more. I get the "man on the street" doesn't understand but the investment professionals should.

So, as I am writing this reply, the Dow is up 146 points, the NASDAQ is up 85 points, and the S&P500 is up 27.

Instead of thinking of this from a details perspective, think of it more VERY big picture. This is a broad generalization, but put the news into two categories, GOOD news and BAD news.

The markets are pricing in BAD economic news which means all of the data and the trends are leading us to believe that there is going to be BAD economic news.

The data released today is GOOD news, or rather, it's not the BAD news that we have priced in. Really has little to no impact on today's market performance. However, the runway is getting shorter for the market to get the BAD news it is expecting and until it gets that BAD news, it's likely going to stagnate a bit.

Fastforward to election season, if we are at or near where we are today when people start voting, that doesn't bode well for the incumbent.

Motown Spartan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:As a detailed focused guy, I find it crazy that the markets pay attention to the preliminary numbers but ignore the follow ups.

Look at the downward revisions for October & November and tell me how the employment market is going great guns.

Also, these are seasonally adjusted numbers, so they are not real.

And there is the yearly season number adjustment factors modification, either it was in this report or will be the next one, which muddy things up even more. I get the "man on the street" doesn't understand but the investment professionals should.

So, as I am writing this reply, the Dow is up 146 points, the NASDAQ is up 85 points, and the S&P500 is up 27.

Instead of thinking of this from a details perspective, think of it more VERY big picture. This is a broad generalization, but put the news into two categories, GOOD news and BAD news.

The markets are pricing in BAD economic news which means all of the data and the trends are leading us to believe that there is going to be BAD economic news.

The data released today is GOOD news, or rather, it's not the BAD news that we have priced in. Really has little to no impact on today's market performance. However, the runway is getting shorter for the market to get the BAD news it is expecting and until it gets that BAD news, it's likely going to stagnate a bit.

Fastforward to election season, if we are at or near where we are today when people start voting, that doesn't bode well for the incumbent.

Market went up 25% in 2023, how is this bad for Biden?

Motown Spartan wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
I don't know how any of that works, really, or even what it means.. I deal in the human condition. What I do know is that the mainstream media needs to get Biden out of office, like, yesterday.

that said, I admire your aptitude.

I get that Bob, I really do. Ideally, no one would ever have to worry about where their next meal is coming from. I spend the majority of my day working to ensure my client's financial security for the rest of their lives and for the VAST majority of Americans, even those receiving pensions, there is a direct correlation (one could even say causation), with the performance of the stock (and bond) market.

From an economics perspective, a few more hundred thousand people without jobs right now would have a positive economic benefit to a few hundred million more people.  

THAT being said...those few hundred million more people not realizing that economic benefit is why this news is likely to hamper Biden's re-election.  

THAT THAT being said...for the greater good, it would be best for Biden to get re-elected vs...the other guy*, right?

THAT THAT THAT being said...a worse job report NOW would mean a lesser chance of the other guy* getting elected.  

*the orange, christian, sexual assaulter and predator

I hear ya - and those are a lot of the folks I spend time with. It's tough for them and, what's possibly even worse, is that it seems about half of the population cares very little about them, a social safety net and providing them the support that they need.

oh - and the people who care very little about them are the same people who run around calling themselves the 'moral majority' and lecturing the rest of us about the sanctity of life.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Motown Spartan wrote:

So, as I am writing this reply, the Dow is up 146 points, the NASDAQ is up 85 points, and the S&P500 is up 27.

Instead of thinking of this from a details perspective, think of it more VERY big picture. This is a broad generalization, but put the news into two categories, GOOD news and BAD news.

The markets are pricing in BAD economic news which means all of the data and the trends are leading us to believe that there is going to be BAD economic news.

The data released today is GOOD news, or rather, it's not the BAD news that we have priced in. Really has little to no impact on today's market performance. However, the runway is getting shorter for the market to get the BAD news it is expecting and until it gets that BAD news, it's likely going to stagnate a bit.

Fastforward to election season, if we are at or near where we are today when people start voting, that doesn't bode well for the incumbent.

Market went up 25% in 2023, how is this bad for Biden?

The market went up that much because it priced in 5-7 rate cuts in 2024. Those rate cuts won't likely come until there is a weakening labor market, below-trend economic growth, and on-target inflation. If those things don't happen, the rate cuts don't happen. If rate cuts don't happen, the market will likely give up it's 2023 gains. If the market gives up it's 2023 gains, people won't vote for Biden.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Motown Spartan wrote:

I get that Bob, I really do. Ideally, no one would ever have to worry about where their next meal is coming from. I spend the majority of my day working to ensure my client's financial security for the rest of their lives and for the VAST majority of Americans, even those receiving pensions, there is a direct correlation (one could even say causation), with the performance of the stock (and bond) market.

From an economics perspective, a few more hundred thousand people without jobs right now would have a positive economic benefit to a few hundred million more people.  

THAT being said...those few hundred million more people not realizing that economic benefit is why this news is likely to hamper Biden's re-election.  

THAT THAT being said...for the greater good, it would be best for Biden to get re-elected vs...the other guy*, right?

THAT THAT THAT being said...a worse job report NOW would mean a lesser chance of the other guy* getting elected.  

*the orange, christian, sexual assaulter and predator

I hear ya - and those are a lot of the folks I spend time with. It's tough for them and, what's possibly even worse, is that it seems about half of the population cares very little about them, a social safety net and providing them the support that they need.

oh - and the people who care very little about them are the same people who run around calling themselves the 'moral majority' and lecturing the rest of us about the sanctity of life.

I appreciate that you advocate for those folks. It really sucks that there has to be a loser in these types of situations and that it's always the folks that are the most in need that end up losing. I truly believe we need a universal basic income but I digress.

Anyways, just trying to explain my perspective here and how, long term, this could have really bad consequences.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Expect the market to fall on these numbers.

Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all up so far today.

Zurn wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Expect the market to fall on these numbers.

Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all up so far today.

Not anymore. Pretty much right back to where we started at 9:30 this morning.

Looks like today's market was flat...

More new jobs than expected possible slows down the rate of Fed's rate cuts that everyone expects them to make, but flat is higher than I expected.

10 year treasuries rate is higher, so maybe the reaction will be Monday.

OTOH the preferred Fed inflation rate is below 2% for the 6 mouth number.

Trapper Gus wrote:Looks like today's market was flat...

More new jobs than expected possible slows down the rate of Fed's rate cuts that everyone expects them to make, but flat is higher than I expected.

10 year treasuries rate is higher, so maybe the reaction will be Monday.

OTOH the preferred Fed inflation rate is below 2% for the 6 mouth number.

Follow the trends, not any one day movement.

Trapper Gus wrote:Looks like today's market was flat...

More new jobs than expected possible slows down the rate of Fed's rate cuts that everyone expects them to make, but flat is higher than I expected.

10 year treasuries rate is higher, so maybe the reaction will be Monday.

OTOH the preferred Fed inflation rate is below 2% for the 6 mouth number.

Was on the road for most of the evening and thought about this more.

The first rate cut is expected in March. If the data doesn’t support it, I would expect a market move down, the runway getting shorter and shorter. If we get into May, June, and July…I would expect correction talk, if not sooner.

From what I read the stock market is in competition with the bond markets, and thus the higher Fed rate causes the bond markets, not directly but via some sort of voodoo magic, to have higher rates, causing them to be a lower risk and acceptable return option, which seems to be to be a self-filling expectation, meaning the bond rates go up because people think they should be higher, and not for any supply and demand reason.

Also, the 2% target for "inflation", and there the Fed can choose which "inflation" measure it is following, is a relatively recent development, as the link shows, and was adopted when the economy was being suppressed by conservative economic policies, making it somewhat questionable as a number.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/history-and-future-federal-reserves-2-percent-target-rate-inflation-0

All that said, I, in my limited knowledge, agree that the market is waiting for lower interest rates, although the 10-year treasuries have been dropping, partly on expectations and possibly partly because they are just too high on the supply & demand "curve".

It will be interesting to see if the January stock market "bump", something I just read about, will win over the expectations of the markets on what the Fed will do as the inflation numbers come in this month. My short-term prediction is that the CPI, including food & fuel, will be lower (if there are no major upsets - if the Republicans shut down the government, then nellie bar the door), probably below 3%.

The stock market is not waiting for real yields to come down. The stock market is waiting specifically for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

And yes, stocks and bonds generally have an inverse relationship but it’s way more complicated than that.  

At the end of the day, after all of the noise is taken into consideration, earnings drive the stock market over the long term, and everything else is just potholes.

My guess is, with no black swan events there will be rate cuts in 2024.  How many and how much, it depends.

With the rate cuts the markets will end up higher at the end of the year.

The S&P Average hit another high at the close yesterday - Bidenomics, am I right?

Meanwhile the GDP for the 4th quarter 2023 grew by 3.3%, only 65% more than economists were predicting. (2.0%)

I remember when during the Trumpenomics years we all were excited to see above 2%

Riden with Biden

BTW the numbers we are seeing should put a dagger through the heart of the concept of supply side economics.

The demand side boost from the pandemic relief bills plus Biden's demand supporting legislation and executive order support are showing it is demand that drives the economy, not supply.  Silly economists (rabbits), that should have been obvious all along.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that GDP expanded 3.1 percent in 2023, a year that began with heavy odds of a recession and closed out with fourth-quarter growth that blew away projections.

Trump never made it to 3% in a year.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/25/gdp-report-us-economy-inflation-cooldown

That represents an acceleration from 0.7% GDP growth in 2022, and trounced the growth rates of most other advanced countries — and the 1.8%-ish rate that economists consider the United States' long-term trend.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled further last month even as the economy kept growing briskly, a trend sure to be welcomed at the White House as President Joe Biden seeks re-election in a race that could pivot on his economic stewardship.

Friday’s government report showed that prices rose just 0.2% from November to December, a pace consistent with pre-pandemic levels and barely above the Fed’s 2% annual target. Measured from a year earlier, prices increased 2.6%.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called “core” prices rose just 0.2% from month to month and 2.9% from a year earlier — the smallest such rise since March 2021. Economists consider core prices a better gauge of the likely path of inflation.

BUMP!

[tw]1752041273140068519[/tw]

Earth to Trump

While the markets do react to election news, it is not until August or even closer to the election that this occurs.

Right now the markets are reacting to the numbers in the economy and the hope the Fed will lower interest rates.

Bump

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry.

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $34.55. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $29.66.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.1 hours in January and is down by 0.5 hour over the year. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 39.8 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.7 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 33.5 hours.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 9,000, from +173,000 to +182,000, and the change for December was revised up by 117,000, from +216,000 to +333,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 126,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the November and December revisions.)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Typically I don't comment in this post, but holy crap!  The top line number is over twice what was expected.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate — the share of workers with or looking for a job — was 62.5% in January.
Average hourly earnings, a measure of wage growth, soared by 0.6%. Over the past 12 month, average hourly earnings increased by 4.5%.

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/02/us-jobs-report-january-2024

Bump!

"America adds 353,000 jobs in January and why this is terrible news for the Biden campaign".

sincerely,

mainstream media

(Friday market close) The S&P 500 index (SPX) posted its third consecutive daily record close and settled above 5,000 for the first time ever Friday as big technology shares extended a march higher and investors remained buoyed by the outlook for the economy and interest rates.

bump

No bump today?

https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-holiday-inflation-9c318e69c5e122243d9474c7609c31f8

TravelinMan wrote:No bump today?

https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-holiday-inflation-9c318e69c5e122243d9474c7609c31f8

Only a 1.4% drop and it was pretty much expected with the market over bought, with a 5% gain in 42 days, just waiting for a trigger and Inflation at 3.1%, down from 3.4% last month, instead of 3.0% did it.

(To be fair maybe the latest Trump attack on Biden scared investors that Trump could win, and that did it - lol)

You forgot the

BUMP

I’m not sure bumping this thread 24hrs after the all time high is the power post you think it is.

kingstonlake wrote:I’m not sure bumping this thread 24hrs after the all time high is the power post you think it is.

Power post? No, of course not. But the biggest one day drop in almost a year due to (still more) inflation fears? Worth noting.

Or like Trapper said, maybe it's Trump's fault.

TravelinMan wrote:No bump today?

https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-holiday-inflation-9c318e69c5e122243d9474c7609c31f8

bump

TravelinMan wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:I’m not sure bumping this thread 24hrs after the all time high is the power post you think it is.

Power post? No, of course not. But the biggest one day drop in almost a year due to (still more) inflation fears? Worth noting.

Or like Trapper said, maybe it's Trump's fault.

dude, you're back.

I assume you've been working hard?

kingstonlake wrote:I’m not sure bumping this thread 24hrs after the all time high is the power post you think it is.

To be fair, republicans/libertarians are also celebrating genocide, so...

TravelinMan wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:I’m not sure bumping this thread 24hrs after the all time high is the power post you think it is.

Power post? No, of course not. But the biggest one day drop in almost a year due to (still more) inflation fears? Worth noting.

Or like Trapper said, maybe it's Trump's fault.

Everything I read say the bonds v stocks are the reason, which technically are interest rates which are indirectly inflation.

Too bad the Fed can't just step in and fine corporations for greedfation instead, it would be more direct control.

TravelinMan wrote:

Power post? No, of course not. But the biggest one day drop in almost a year due to (still more) inflation fears? Worth noting.

Or like Trapper said, maybe it's Trump's fault.

Inflation fears? Don't worry TM, I've been told it's just transitory.