A probabilistic look at the SEC West race

Taking a look at the four top teams:
Mississippi State (7-0)
Mississippi (7-1)
Alabama (7-1)
Auburn (6-1)

There are 4 head-to-head games left
Auburn @ Mississippi (Nov. 1)
Mississippi State @ Alabama (Nov. 15)
Mississippi State @ Mississippi (Nov. 29)
Auburn @ Alabama (Nov. 29)

That makes for 16 possible outcomes. There are 8 outcomes in which 2 teams finish the regular season with at most one loss. So you could say there is a 50% chance of that happening if these were the only games played (and each game is a coin flip).

But these aren't the only games played so the odds should drop significantly when you factor in the rest of the schedules and the SEC championship. Other games against ranked opponents are Alabama@LSU and Auburn@Georgia.

The only way I think Georgia could be a 2nd one loss team is if they ran the table and beat an undefeated Mississippi State in the SEC championship. Georgia only has one tough game (Auburn) remaining.

A lot of questions will be answered tomorrow. Unfortunately, I really think that the PAC12 and B1G reps will be looking for the 4 best teams, while the ACC, SEC and B12 reps will all be looking to increase their brand. 

If GA has one loss and wins the SEC, after not having Gurley for half the season, there is no way they are left out.

Just get it over with and make the SEC championship game the default National Championship. Then the rest of us can worry about the more important games. like the B1G championship. I seriously put much more importance on that now than anything that comes after. At least until there's a more reasonable playoff system.

InTenSity wrote:A lot of questions will be answered tomorrow. Unfortunately, I really think that the PAC12 and B1G reps will be looking for the 4 best teams, while the ACC, SEC and B12 reps will all be looking to increase their brand. 

If GA has one loss and wins the SEC, after not having Gurley for half the season, there is no way they are left out.

It will be interesting to see where MSU stands at this point in time but don't freak out because most of the teams are going to lose.

Herbie Green wrote:

It will be interesting to see where MSU stands at this point in time but don't freak out because most of the teams are going to lose.  

Is TCU getting a pass for losing a couple of weeks ago to Baylor, because they blew a 21 point lead in 10 minutes, or because they put up video game scores? I have no idea how good they are because they don't seem to play defense and the writers are just loving it.