tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread

by **Giant Moose** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 12:39

So I guess this thing has a decent chance to make U.S. landfall if the past is any indication...

by **steveschneider** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 12:41

Buckle up. Just hoping one doesn't reach us up here on the east coast this year.

by **Giant Moose** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 12:43

by **Turtleneck** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 12:43

So this thread is not about Danny Glover?

by **Floyd Robertson** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 12:46

looks like it will spare our newest ally Cuba.

by **Giant Moose** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 12:46

by **InTenSity** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 12:49

This thing is going to get torn apart by the upper level winds created by El Nino. After going through the Windward islands, it will then have to fight through Haiti and or Cuba. Unless it stays to the south and goes around the Cayman Islands then boomerangs through the Gulf, I don't think it will amount to much.

That said, I completely expect all the water to be gone from Publix and Home Depot to be full this weekend.

by CheesySpartan Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 13:10

InTenSity wrote:This thing is going to get torn apart by the upper level winds created by El Nino. After going through the Windward islands, it will then have to fight through Haiti and or Cuba. Unless it stays to the south and goes around the Cayman Islands then boomerangs through the Gulf, I don't think it will amount to much.

That said, I completely expect all the water to be gone from Publix and Home Depot to be full this weekend.

How long have you been in FL? What's the worst storm you have seen?

by **InTenSity** Thu 20 Aug 2015 - 13:57

CheesySpartan wrote:
InTenSity wrote:This thing is going to get torn apart by the upper level winds created by El Nino. After going through the Windward islands, it will then have to fight through Haiti and or Cuba. Unless it stays to the south and goes around the Cayman Islands then boomerangs through the Gulf, I don't think it will amount to much.

That said, I completely expect all the water to be gone from Publix and Home Depot to be full this weekend.

How long have you been in FL? What's the worst storm you have seen?

I've been here since 07, the year after Florida was hit by about 6 storms. The worst would be TS Fay, which was just a rain event. I watch these every year though since I've been here. Being in the middle of the 5 day projected path, seems to be a good thing.

by **Giant Moose** Fri 21 Aug 2015 - 14:33

Now a Category 3 hurricane

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/21/hurricane-danny-gains-strength-and-speed-as-it-spins-toward-the-caribbean/

by **DWags** Fri 21 Aug 2015 - 14:38

Tanfan.

by **InTenSity** Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 8:14

Danny is basically dead now. I got the Leeward islands and the Windward islands confused. Either way, the shear tore it apart.

by HT Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 8:55

by tanfan! Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 10:23

Good news. Two tropical depressions behind Danny. Coujd get hit by one of those. Awesome.

by **InTenSity** Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 11:07

Tanfan! wrote:Good news. Two tropical depressions behind Danny. Coujd get hit by one of those. Awesome.

I doubt it. Both of them will have the same issues. Its fun running the models though, since the Canadian model always wants to take out huge populations. That model currently shows the depression behind Danny becoming a major hurricane going through Bermuda. I just think there is too much crap for these storms to go through right now to hit Miami. Orlando, OTOH, is fucked.

by **Snake Plissken** Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 11:09

Tanfan! wrote:Good news. Two tropical depressions behind Danny. Coujd get hit by one of those. Awesome.

The down side to living in paradise. I need to call my dad and see if he's boarding up his house.

by tanfan! Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 11:11

InTenSity wrote:
Tanfan! wrote:Good news. Two tropical depressions behind Danny. Coujd get hit by one of those. Awesome.
I doubt it. Both of them will have the same issues. Its fun running the models though, since the Canadian model always wants to take out huge populations. That model currently shows the depression behind Danny becoming a major hurricane going through Bermuda. I just think there is too much crap for these storms to go through right now to hit Miami. Orlando, OTOH, is fucked.

Yuk yuk

by **Turtleneck** Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 11:14

So no aligatornado?

by **InTenSity** Mon 24 Aug 2015 - 11:26

Hurricane/weather models for anyone who's interested
That's the site I use.

by **InTenSity** Tue 25 Aug 2015 - 8:26

Erika looks like it could get through the shear and into the Bahama's. This one is worth keeping an eye on. Better not keep me from leaving next Friday.

by **InTenSity** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 11:16

So...Miamians...Do I stock up on liquor and beer this weekend?

by **Giant Moose** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 11:40

InTenSity wrote:So...Miamians...Do I stock up on liquor and beer this weekend?

You should always stock up on liquor and beer for the weekend.

by **InTenSity** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 11:47

Giant Moose wrote:
InTenSity wrote:So...Miamians...Do I stock up on liquor and beer this weekend?
You should always stock up on liquor and beer for the weekend.

I meant more than normal. Will the stores be available for looting on Monday?

by **DWags** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 12:18

InTenSity wrote:
Giant Moose wrote:
You should always stock up on liquor and beer for the weekend.
I meant more than normal. Will the stores be available for looting on Monday?

I don't think you can really get a good loot on without being drunk, so I'd start overstocking my house with liquor.

by **InTenSity** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 12:25

Best case scenario for me. Erika heads towards the Great Bahama's, then turns north. I don't think the NHC is going to fuck around and only put a hurricane watch into effect for Broward, Dade and Monroe counties, maybe for Monroe. Then I get Monday off, the storm goes away and I go golfing.

by **MiamiSpartan** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 12:58

InTenSity wrote:Best case scenario for me. Erika heads towards the Great Bahama's, then turns north. I don't think the NHC is going to fuck around and only put a hurricane watch into effect for Broward, Dade and Monroe counties, maybe for Monroe. Then I get Monday off, the storm goes away and I go golfing.

Could head south and miss us, too. But we keep being right dead in the center of a fairly narrow cone, so I'm expecting us to be pretty much fucked.

It's a fucking pain in the ass if it comes here. More as a major inconvenience than really damaging if it's a low Cat 1 (though there is always the possibility of somewhat random damage from a tree or something, or some particularly strong gusts hitting at just the right spot/angle). But it's been 10 years since we've had an actual hurricane hit here, so we're due. Just part of living in the tropics, but I wouldn't trade it for anything.

by **InTenSity** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 13:05

MiamiSpartan wrote:
InTenSity wrote:Best case scenario for me. Erika heads towards the Great Bahama's, then turns north. I don't think the NHC is going to fuck around and only put a hurricane watch into effect for Broward, Dade and Monroe counties, maybe for Monroe. Then I get Monday off, the storm goes away and I go golfing.
Could head south and miss us, too. But we keep being right dead in the center of a fairly narrow cone, so I'm expecting us to be pretty much fucked.

It's a fucking pain in the ass if it comes here. More as a major inconvenience than really damaging if it's a low Cat 1 (though there is always the possibility of somewhat random damage from a tree or something, or some particularly strong gusts hitting at just the right spot/angle. But it's been 10 years since we've had an actual hurricane hit here, so we're due. Just part of living in the tropics, but I wouldn't trade it for anything.

Right after having to get Citizens Home Owners Insurance....Do they even cover anything, or am I screwed?

by **MiamiSpartan** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 13:19

InTenSity wrote:
MiamiSpartan wrote:
Could head south and miss us, too. But we keep being right dead in the center of a fairly narrow cone, so I'm expecting us to be pretty much fucked.

It's a fucking pain in the ass if it comes here. More as a major inconvenience than really damaging if it's a low Cat 1 (though there is always the possibility of somewhat random damage from a tree or something, or some particularly strong gusts hitting at just the right spot/angle. But it's been 10 years since we've had an actual hurricane hit here, so we're due. Just part of living in the tropics, but I wouldn't trade it for anything.
Right after having to get Citizens Home Owners Insurance....Do they even cover anything, or am I screwed?

You're screwed.

Just kidding. I hope. I don't have Citizens, but 10 years ago my in-laws got money from them to more than cover a leaky roof caused by Wilma. I don't remember if it was a big hassle or not, but Citizen more than covered the repair cost.

What year was your place built? Do you have shutters?

by **MiamiSpartan** Wed 26 Aug 2015 - 18:19

The cone has shifted a little north! The center of the cone had landfall right at South Florida earlier this afternoon, now it's up around Vero. We're still well within the Cone of Death, but it's looking a little better. Also looks like it's slowed down (or is projected to slow down), as earlier they were projecting it to be over the Bahamas at 2am Sunday, and now it's 2pm Sunday. I have better shit to do with my weekend that spending it shuttering up and moving patio furniture and potted plants into the garage, so fingers crossed!
tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread 205325W5_NL_sm

tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread 205325W5_NL_sm

by **InTenSity** Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 12:00

MiamiSpartan wrote:
InTenSity wrote:
Right after having to get Citizens Home Owners Insurance....Do they even cover anything, or am I screwed?
You're screwed.

Just kidding. I hope. I don't have Citizens, but 10 years ago my in-laws got money from them to more than cover a leaky roof caused by Wilma. I don't remember if it was a big hassle or not, but Citizen more than covered the repair cost.

What year was your place built? Do you have shutters?

I have shutters and high impact sliding glass doors. Our place was built in 77, but the roof was done in 2006 or 7, after Wilma. I've got the Wind Mitigation discount, and I'm the western most townhouse.
The models have shifted back to the west, and now have an M right offshore next to WPB. My wife sent me pictures of the line at Costco for gas. I just hope I can golf this weekend.

by **MiamiSpartan** Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 15:10

InTenSity wrote:
MiamiSpartan wrote:
You're screwed.

Just kidding. I hope. I don't have Citizens, but 10 years ago my in-laws got money from them to more than cover a leaky roof caused by Wilma. I don't remember if it was a big hassle or not, but Citizen more than covered the repair cost.

What year was your place built? Do you have shutters?
I have shutters and high impact sliding glass doors. Our place was built in 77, but the roof was done in 2006 or 7, after Wilma. I've got the Wind Mitigation discount, and I'm the western most townhouse.
The models have shifted back to the west, and now have an M right offshore next to WPB. My wife sent me pictures of the line at Costco for gas. I just hope I can golf this weekend.

Yeah, if it follows the center of the cone (which may or may not happen, of course), it won't make landfall, but will graze us. One of the maps on the NOAA puts the Miami area at about a 40-50% chance of tropical storm force winds at this point.

Regardless, you'll be fine golfing.

tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread Caddyshack

tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread Caddyshack

by **InTenSity** Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 15:13

MiamiSpartan wrote:
InTenSity wrote:
I have shutters and high impact sliding glass doors. Our place was built in 77, but the roof was done in 2006 or 7, after Wilma. I've got the Wind Mitigation discount, and I'm the western most townhouse.
The models have shifted back to the west, and now have an M right offshore next to WPB. My wife sent me pictures of the line at Costco for gas. I just hope I can golf this weekend.
Yeah, if it follows the center of the cone (which may or may not happen, of course), it won't make landfall, but will graze us. One of the maps on the NOAA puts the Miami area at about a 40-50% chance of tropical storm force winds at this point.

Regardless, you'll be fine golfing.

From what I recall from the few tropical storms that have gone nearby, is that there isn't a lot of lightning. You have to put up with the bands of rain, but those can move by relatively quickly. Just sit in the clubhouse and have a beer or two, waiting it out.
They've changed the cone every time there is a new advisory, which is a bit difficult. I normally go grocery shopping tonight, so I'm expecting it to be packed.

by **StylesGShmooth** Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 19:01

OK, I am in Tampa til Sunday. Should I be worried?

by **InTenSity** Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 19:05

StylesGShmooth wrote:OK, I am in Tampa til Sunday. Should I be worried?

You should be fine unless it stays south of the keys, which it shouldn't.

by Rodeo Burger Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 19:29

InTenSity wrote:
StylesGShmooth wrote:OK, I am in Tampa til Sunday. Should I be worried?
You should be fine unless it stays south of the keys, which it shouldn't.

Why is that? Would it then end up in the Gulf, and be a danger to turn north and pummel that coast instead of the Atlantic side?

by **InTenSity** Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 19:31

Rodeo Burger wrote:
InTenSity wrote:
You should be fine unless it stays south of the keys, which it shouldn't.

Why is that? Would it then end up in the Gulf, and be a danger to turn north and pummel that coast instead of the Atlantic side?

pretty much. The gulf has water temps around 90, which just fuels it.

by **InTenSity** Thu 27 Aug 2015 - 20:04

8 pm advisory. Now it is shifting west again. Styles, just pay attention to the news. You should still be ok, but this thing needs to start tracking north soon. Good news is that it still needs to go through Hispaniola, and high shear. Hopefully that is enough to break it up like Danny.

tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread 235640W5_NL_sm

tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread 235640W5_NL_sm

by **Giant Moose** Fri 28 Aug 2015 - 9:32

tOfficial Hurricane Season 2015 thread At201505

Miami looks like a bullseye. InTenSity, can I have your Oregon tickets?

by gomersbro Fri 28 Aug 2015 - 9:39

I don't think we are going to know the details until is moves over Hispaniola. The eye of the storm has been wandering a bit, so the mountains "could" break it up. If it says organized and moves north of Cuba to restrengthen south Florida could get a nice rain storm but nothing disastrous.

by **InTenSity** Fri 28 Aug 2015 - 9:40

Miami looks like a bullseye. InTenSity, can I have your Oregon tickets?

Meh, a TS is nothing. I still have to come in to work for a TS. Kind of fucked up if its a strong one and I have to drive in with 60 mph winds. I'm getting 2 more tickets today, and I could get 2 more next week, but I have family who I'm giving those to. We can certainly meet for a beer and a brawl though.

I don't think we are going to know the details until is moves over Hispaniola. The eye of the storm has been wandering a bit, so the mountains "could" break it up. If it says organized and moves north of Cuba to restrengthen south Florida could get a nice rain storm but nothing disastrous.

Best case scenario is that the mountains break everything up and we just get a wave, like you said. I'm having a hard time even seeing an eye this morning on the satellite images, but I'm not a meteorologist. She still hasn't really turned north, and I think yesterday they had her on the north side of Hispaniola. Today is the day where she hopefully falls apart.

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