If MSU wins out.. are they in the College football playoff?

What say you, tSwill?

No dwags option, I am fighting back against that motherfucker.

Nate Silver gives us a 10% chance still.

Leaning towards a solid no, but there's a very small window we could fit through. Just about all of the below need to happen perfectly.

1. Will need to win and win impressively rest of the way.
2. Will need ND and all other blue bloods with currenly 1 loss to drop another game (OU, LSU, FL).
3. If ND's second loss comes against Stanford, that will be a problem.
4. Baylor and OkSt both need to have at least 1 loss (but if it's to OU, that doesn't help).
5. Utah either needs another loss, or we need leep over then due to our "impressive" wins.

If all of the above happens, you're left with Clemson, Bama, MSU and one other 1-loss team (take your pick). But we're the only team that could have a shot at two current top 5 teams, so that helps.

Feels like the Big 12 holds the key for us to get in.

Vlad wrote:Nate Silver gives us a 10% chance still.

To win out - or to make the playoff?

The more I think about it (still struggling to get back in this convo), the more I feel like if we beat OSU AND Iowa.. gotta be in, right?

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

Vlad wrote:Nate Silver gives us a 10% chance still.

To win out - or to make the playoff?

The more I think about it (still struggling to get back in this convo), the more I feel like if we beat OSU AND Iowa.. gotta be in, right?

depends on what everyone else does...

Clemson wins out, Bama wins out, OK States wins out, ND wins out, Oklahoma wins out, Stanford wins out, Baylor wins out - probably not.

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

Vlad wrote:Nate Silver gives us a 10% chance still.

To win out - or to make the playoff?

The more I think about it (still struggling to get back in this convo), the more I feel like if we beat OSU AND Iowa.. gotta be in, right?

Silver gives us an 11% chance of winning out and an 86% chance of making the playoff if we win out.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/just-win-baby-and-youll-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

To win out - or to make the playoff?

The more I think about it (still struggling to get back in this convo), the more I feel like if we beat OSU AND Iowa.. gotta be in, right?

depends on what everyone else does...

Clemson wins out, Bama wins out, OK States wins out, ND wins out, Oklahoma wins out, Stanford wins out, Baylor wins out - probably not.

Wait.  Only one of OK, OK State, and Baylor can win out because they all play each other.  Assume you meant one of them.  OK, this makes sense to me.  If OSU and Iowa both lose to MSU, would OSU and Iowa be downgraded such that a Big 12 team (say Baylor) would have a better resume?  Tough to say, but certainly plausible.

Code_Warrior wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
depends on what everyone else does...

Clemson wins out, Bama wins out, OK States wins out, ND wins out, Oklahoma wins out, Stanford wins out, Baylor wins out - probably not.

Wait.  Only one of OK, OK State, and Baylor can win out because they all play each other. Assume you meant one of them.  OK, this makes sense to me.  If OSU and Iowa both lose to MSU, would OSU and Iowa be downgraded such that a Big 12 team (say Baylor) would have a better resume?  Tough to say, but certainly plausible.

yeah that's what I meant - same with ND/Stanford obviously.

bottom line, still a lot of football to be played. Somehow I expect either ND or Stanford to sneak into the top 4 eventually. I figure Clemson is a virtual lock to go undefeated, as the bulk of their schedule is behind them. Bama still has to go to Auburn who would love nothing more than to ruin their season - they (Auburn) really have nothing else to play for. I suspect the Big 12 teams will beat up on each other pretty well.

Nate Silver is smarter than me. So I would say there's an 86% chance that we would be in if we win out.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:bottom line, still a lot of football to be played. Somehow I expect either ND or Stanford to sneak into the top 4 eventually. I figure Clemson is a virtual lock to go undefeated, as the bulk of their schedule is behind them. Bama still has to go to Auburn who would love nothing more than to ruin their season - they (Auburn) really have nothing else to play for. I suspect the Big 12 teams will beat up on each other pretty well.

UNC is pretty good. Wouldn't surprise me if they took out Clemson in the ACC Cham game.

I started having this conversation last night with someone and we just stopped and agreed to talk about it when and if we beat osu.

I hope I've been helpful.

I would say 50% MSU is a shoe in
20% they get in amid splitting hairs controversey
20% get left out amid splitting hairs controversey
10% chance they would have no shot because everything else went wrong.

Vlad wrote:Nate Silver gives us a 10% chance still.

Leaning towards a solid no, but there's a very small window we could fit through. Just about all of the below need to happen perfectly.

1. Will need to win and win impressively rest of the way.
2. Will need ND and all other blue bloods with currenly 1 loss to drop another game (OU, LSU, FL).
3. If ND's second loss comes against Stanford, that will be a problem.
4. Baylor and OkSt both need to have at least 1 loss (but if it's to OU, that doesn't help).
5. Utah either needs another loss, or we need leep over then due to our "impressive" wins.

If all of the above happens, you're left with Clemson, Bama, MSU and one other 1-loss team (take your pick). But we're the only team that could have a shot at two current top 5 teams, so that helps.

Feels like the Big 12 holds the key for us to get in.

Gotta love when someone uses Nate Silver for one percentage (which isn't what this thread is about) and ignores the percentages that are directly associated with what this thread is about.

Congrats.

DWags wrote:

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:Nate Silver is smarter than me. So I would say there's an 86% chance that we would be in if we win out.

There's also something to be said of just being that team that none of the talking heads want in, almost seemed like they were happy we lost to Nebraska, how most on the radio I've listened to never gave us much care.  If we can be that team that just wins out and pisses those people off cause they just don't know what to do with us, that would be very satisfying.  The elephant in the room.   Love it.

I think the committee is positioning Iowa in case they win out. We would probably benefit from that going forward as well.

DWags wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

I think the committee is positioning Iowa in case they win out.  We would probably benefit from that going forward as well.  

What did the bama cheerleader Feinbomb say about the big ten and a firewall and what did he mean?

No idea. Last night? Missed it. Was at a basketball game, and a fight broke out. That was probably more entertaining than Finebaum.

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:bottom line, still a lot of football to be played. Somehow I expect either ND or Stanford to sneak into the top 4 eventually. I figure Clemson is a virtual lock to go undefeated, as the bulk of their schedule is behind them. Bama still has to go to Auburn who would love nothing more than to ruin their season - they (Auburn) really have nothing else to play for. I suspect the Big 12 teams will beat up on each other pretty well.

UNC is pretty good. Wouldn't surprise me if they took out Clemson in the ACC Cham game.

Carolina does look pretty good. I think they've won 7 in a row. Drilled Duke but, ya know, raise your hand if you even knew that Duke had a football team.

NigelUno wrote:

Vlad wrote:Nate Silver gives us a 10% chance still.

Leaning towards a solid no, but there's a very small window we could fit through. Just about all of the below need to happen perfectly.

1. Will need to win and win impressively rest of the way.
2. Will need ND and all other blue bloods with currenly 1 loss to drop another game (OU, LSU, FL).
3. If ND's second loss comes against Stanford, that will be a problem.
4. Baylor and OkSt both need to have at least 1 loss (but if it's to OU, that doesn't help).
5. Utah either needs another loss, or we need leep over then due to our "impressive" wins.

If all of the above happens, you're left with Clemson, Bama, MSU and one other 1-loss team (take your pick). But we're the only team that could have a shot at two current top 5 teams, so that helps.

Feels like the Big 12 holds the key for us to get in.

Gotta love when someone uses Nate Silver for one percentage (which isn't what this thread is about) and ignores the percentages that are directly associated with what this thread is about.

Congrats.

Easy you two, this thread is not about you this time.

I appreciate all of the thoughts, you guys. Trying to get back into football here.

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

Gotta love when someone uses Nate Silver for one percentage (which isn't what this thread is about) and ignores the percentages that are directly associated with what this thread is about.

Congrats.

Easy you two, this thread is not about you this time.

I appreciate all of the thoughts, you guys. Trying to get back into football here.

I'll be honest. On Saturday, I'm going down to Ocean Reef for breakfast and golf. After that, since the family will be with me, we're going to go to Islamorada. I don't even know what time the game is on Saturday, but I'm ok with recording it, and then breaking hte DVR with a sledgehammer if we fuck up and lose that game too. I'll get back into things the following weekend when we play OSU.

InTenSity wrote:

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

Easy you two, this thread is not about you this time.

I appreciate all of the thoughts, you guys. Trying to get back into football here.

I'll be honest. On Saturday, I'm going down to Ocean Reef for breakfast and golf. After that, since the family will be with me, we're going to go to Islamorada. I don't even know what time the game is on Saturday, but I'm ok with recording it, and then breaking hte DVR with a sledgehammer if we fuck up and lose that game too. I'll get back into things the following weekend when we play OSU.

if it helps, I won't be watching the game, either.

InTenSity wrote:

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

Easy you two, this thread is not about you this time.

I appreciate all of the thoughts, you guys. Trying to get back into football here.

I'll be honest. On Saturday, I'm going down to Ocean Reef for breakfast and golf. After that, since the family will be with me, we're going to go to Islamorada. I don't even know what time the game is on Saturday, but I'm ok with recording it, and then breaking hte DVR with a sledgehammer if we fuck up and lose that game too. I'll get back into things the following weekend when we play OSU.

Hey man - whatever it takes. I'll probably be in EL tailgating and going to the game but I'm down for anything a Spartan needs to do to get his head straight and ready to pull of some fuckin' magic against OSU. Have Cook sling it around and see what happens baby. Enjoy your weekend.

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

Gotta love when someone uses Nate Silver for one percentage (which isn't what this thread is about) and ignores the percentages that are directly associated with what this thread is about.

Congrats.

Easy you two, this thread is not about you this time.

I appreciate all of the thoughts, you guys. Trying to get back into football here.

My bad. I'll let you figure out if Vlad answered your question(s), or if he's just trolling.

Best wishes.

InTenSity wrote:

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

Easy you two, this thread is not about you this time.

I appreciate all of the thoughts, you guys. Trying to get back into football here.

I'll be honest. On Saturday, I'm going down to Ocean Reef for breakfast and golf. After that, since the family will be with me, we're going to go to Islamorada. I don't even know what time the game is on Saturday, but I'm ok with recording it, and then breaking hte DVR with a sledgehammer if we fuck up and lose that game too. I'll get back into things the following weekend when we play OSU.

Sounds like a baller weekend. Your pictures are (slightly) better than that other guy's though. Try not to post any of the highway again.

NigelUno wrote:
Sounds like a baller weekend. Your pictures are (slightly) better than that other guy's though. Try not to post any of the highway again.

I was going to take pics of all the yachts sitting there.
I'm not fighting anyone though! I think I've posted pics of the golf course though.

oops, double post

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:Nate Silver is smarter than me. So I would say there's an 86% chance that we would be in if we win out.

Not sure how Nigel is interpreting Nate's figures, but when I go to his link, I see Nate giving us a 12% chance of winnin the BT, and a 10% chance of making the playoffs. This was updated during the day this past Tuesday.

Obviously our chances go way, way up (86%) to accomplish the second if we accomplish the first (no brainer there, in fact a prerequisite), but the difference between the 12% and the 10% is what this thread is about.

Lot's of football to be played yet. If anyone wants to throw a bet my way with favorable terms, I'll consider it.

12-1 Big Ten team with wins over undefeated Ohio State and Iowa? Yep. We're in the CFP if that happens.

Dr. Strangelove wrote:12-1 Big Ten team with wins over undefeated Ohio State and Iowa? Yep. We're in the CFP if that happens.

Interesting that no one here was saying that last week. The concensus was that we win we're in, and we lose we're out.

But yeah, we're still hangin in there. If enough "ifs" fall our way, we could get in. Will need to pick up style points along the way though. We're way short on those.

Vlad wrote:

Dr. Strangelove wrote:12-1 Big Ten team with wins over undefeated Ohio State and Iowa? Yep. We're in the CFP if that happens.

Interesting that no one here was saying that last week. The concensus was that we win we're in, and we lose we're out.

But yeah, we're still hangin in there. If enough "ifs" fall our way, we could get in. Will need to pick up style points along the way though. We're way short on those.

The key is if you're gonna lose - lose early. Let's hope early November is early enough.

Vlad wrote:

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:Nate Silver is smarter than me. So I would say there's an 86% chance that we would be in if we win out.

Not sure how Nigel is interpreting Nate's figures, but when I go to his link, I see Nate giving us a 12% chance of winnin the BT, and a 10% chance of making the playoffs. This was updated during the day this past Tuesday.

Obviously our chances go way, way up (86%) to accomplish the second if we accomplish the first (no brainer there, in fact a prerequisite), but the difference between the 12% and the 10% is what this thread is about.

Lot's of football to be played yet. If anyone wants to throw a bet my way with favorable terms, I'll consider it.

Actually, the thread title says...

Re: If MSU wins out.. are they in the College football playoff?

And, I'm not interpreting his data. It is very clear what his data says. If you are having trouble understanding his data, let me know...and I'll explain it to you.

Vlad wrote:

Dr. Strangelove wrote:12-1 Big Ten team with wins over undefeated Ohio State and Iowa? Yep. We're in the CFP if that happens.

Interesting that no one here was saying that last week. The concensus was that we win we're in, and we lose we're out.

But yeah, we're still hangin in there. If enough "ifs" fall our way, we could get in. Will need to pick up style points along the way though. We're way short on those.

There are other games that may have impacted our chances since last week though. I'm sure you realize that if you've looked at Nate Silver's stats which have "Before Week 10" and "After Week 10". It's not just a green and white thing, remember? So, our chances are lower, but not zero.

Iowa must have a lot of style points, eh? They jumped to 5.

NigelUno wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Interesting that no one here was saying that last week. The concensus was that we win we're in, and we lose we're out.

But yeah, we're still hangin in there. If enough "ifs" fall our way, we could get in. Will need to pick up style points along the way though. We're way short on those.

There are other games that may have impacted our chances since last week though. I'm sure you realize that if you've looked at Nate Silver's stats which have "Before Week 10" and "After Week 10". It's not just a green and white thing, remember? So, our chances are lower, but not zero.

Iowa must have a lot of style points, eh? They jumped to 5.

Well, they did beat Indiana by 8.. I wish we could have beat them by that.

Style points shmyle points - we beat OSU and Iowa by a total of 2 points, I think we got a good god damn shot to make that top 4.

I doubt it.

NigelUno wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Not sure how Nigel is interpreting Nate's figures, but when I go to his link, I see Nate giving us a 12% chance of winnin the BT, and a 10% chance of making the playoffs. This was updated during the day this past Tuesday.

Obviously our chances go way, way up (86%) to accomplish the second if we accomplish the first (no brainer there, in fact a prerequisite), but the difference between the 12% and the 10% is what this thread is about.

Lot's of football to be played yet. If anyone wants to throw a bet my way with favorable terms, I'll consider it.

Actually, the thread title says...

Re: If MSU wins out.. are they in the College football playoff?

And, I'm not interpreting his data.  It is very clear what his data says. If you are having trouble understanding his data, let me know...and I'll explain it to you.

You know you're talking to an Asian right? Fella, I MAKE the data, I don't interpret it!

Rule of thumb: Never play the numbers with an Asian. 

It is possible but I believe we need some help.

We win out and we're battling the winner of Notre Dame-Stanford for the 4th spot right?  Assuming the other 3 are Bama, Clemson, Big 12.  I would like our resume versus theirs.