Bootlegs!!!!!!

Pre-Snap Read: Michigan vs. Alabama, College Football Playoff

Michigan State is one win away from the National Championship game. The Spartans are a heavy underdog against SEC Champion Alabama, but the Big Ten Champs have carried themselves with quiet confidence throughout the week leading up to the 80th Goodyear Cotton Bowl. Click through Jim Comparoni's in-depth analysis in a College Football Playoff edition of the Pre-Snap Read.



Pre-Snap Read
MSU vs Alabama, College Football Playoff

By Jim Comparoni

DALLAS - If you’re reading this as a Spartan Plus subscriber, you’re well aware of what’s at stake on Thursday and the long, emotional journey to get here. I’m not going to go over all of that stuff. I’m going to cut right to the issues and possible answers.

With MSU playing on this stage, and having about three weeks of build-up, I’m sure many of you have read a lot of analysis and watched ESPN & Fox commentators break things down. Those commentators have done a good job, from what I’ve seen. I think they’ve had time to look at things and they have arrived at some conclusions that I have been thinking about as well.

Once again, Kirk Herbstreit sees things the way I see them. I don’t know if that makes either of us right, but I heard him yesterday saying that Alabama’s ability to go deep to WR 3 Calvin Ridley could be the difference in the game, one way or the other, whether Bama could hook it up, or whether MSU could stop it.

I think he might be right. There will be other factors, of course, but this might become the matchup that tips the scales.

Also, I heard Mack Brown talk about Bama’s pass rush and the importance of staying out of third-and-long. I agree with him on that too, as a decisive part of this game.

(Note, I’m going to refer to Alabama as “Bama” throughout this article just because it’s much faster to type Bama that Alabama. I hope you don’t get annoyed by it. In a hurry).

MSU has been very strong on third down all year, maybe the best in the country. But Bama is super dangerous on third-and-long with the best pass rush in the country and changing pictures in pass defense.

Obviously, you want to stay out of third-and-long. But third-and-long situations are usually inevitable.

I agree with Mack and Herbstreit. Those are two worry areas for MSU.

It would be easy for them to talk about MSU’s need to stop the run game of Derrick Henry, and the need for MSU to establish the run.

Well, what if neither team can run the ball?

I think that might be the conclusion that Mack and Herbstreit jumped to in citing WR Ridley and MSU’s third-down pass game as the pivotal micro-matchups.

And I don’t disagree with them.

I wish I had some original thoughts for you, but when I heard Herbstreit talking about Ridley, I almost threw the remote control at the TV. This is like the 50th time in the last five years that Herbstreit has unintentionally stolen my thunder (the little bit of thunder that I have) on something.

By now, you have probably consumed a lot of information about Alabama and this matchup. I will save the usual personnel evaluations for later, and they might not be as important this time as in other Pre-Snap Reads because you already have read so much.

So instead, I’ll get into my final analysis first, and the most-likely scenario by which MSU can win:

Anyway, here is my FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST:

1. Alabama is everything it’s cracked up to be in terms of its ability to stop the run. Their d-line is as good as advertised. Crazy strong.

2. They play 11, 12, 13 d-linemen. Florida coach Jim McElwain referred to their d-line as their “Front Thirty.” “They have some creatures,” he said.

I would agree.

However, I do think there is a drop off from the first string to the second string. I didn’t necessarily see it that way when watching the Bama-Florida game. But when I watched Bama-Auburn, I saw Auburn have success with base inside run plays, with o-linemen beating Bama second-string d-linemen, beating them back a bit when they were trying to two-gap push Auburn.

Bama would adjust by putting the starters back in, or changing to a one-gap, gap-penetration, slanting scheme (rather than the two-gap, hold you up, push you back, read the play, then disengage).

My point is that Bama isn’t Great-Great when the second-string d-line comes in. They’re good. Maybe a little less than Iowa’s starters. That’s still darn good, to have that kind of talent on the second string. My point is that they might play those second-stringers a little more than they need to. Saban has always talked about the need to keep d-linemen fresh, saying that if big guys run out of gas, you can’t get them refilled. they stay empty all day. And you can see that mindset in their recruitment of extra d-linemen and their rotation of extra d-linemen.

That’s all well and good, but I’ve seen Auburn and some other teams get a little momentum going when the second-unit and portions of a third unit come into the game.

3. Their LBs are very good, big, heavy, run fast. 19 MLB Ragland thumps hard. No. 10 the OLB Rueben Foster is fast, tough, pops you, kind of an Ed Davis type but a little better.

Their CBs are good, not great. Not Alabama great. No. 5 Cyrus Jones has gotten tested a lot in the last few games. He’s a 5-foot-10 senior. He has built a nice name for himself, and returned THREE Punt returns for TDs in one game vs Charleston Southern.

But I’ve seen No. 5 give up a play or two.

“We will probably have a height advantage on No. 5 Cyrus Jones into the boundary,” Tyler O’Connor told me, a quote that I didn’t run the mainstream. “He’s a physical guy, very good.”

But they’ll look to go after him, especially if the pre-snap read shows man-to-man.

It’s not as if he is a weakness. But his coverage vs a sizable WR is one of the few areas where you might be able to create some slippage.

4. Their o-line is good. Not great. They won the award for being the best o-line in the country, given this year for the first time. They’re good. I don’t think they’re much better than Iowa. Not better than OSU. Certainly not as good as OSU was at this time last year.

They’re good, but not as good as Wisconsin was when they had Montee Ball.

They’re good. MSU can see that. But MSU has been on the field vs “good” before.

5. Your chances of beating Bama diminish sharply if they rush for 190, 200, 230, 250 yards on you.

Few teams can beat Bama. You have to be able to run around and score a lot of points on them (like the spread tempo teams such as Ole Miss and Texas A&M have done against them in recent years, and Ohio State).

If you want to beat Bama, you had better contain that run game. You aren’t going to stop it. But you’d better contain it.

Few teams are capable of containing it. Florida did for a while, but Florida didn’t have the offense to hold serve. Florida got caught in field position problems that led to an avalanche for Alabama. Gotta stay out of those field position avalanches.

Ole Miss beat Bama 42-35, but that was way back on Sept. 19.

Bama rushed for 215 yards in that game, but had five turnover. Ole Miss had zero turnovers.

Ole Miss managed to run around and pass for 341 yards including a fluke deflection 73-yard back-breaking TD. So give them credit for 270 actual yards passing.

Ole Miss won without stopping the run, but that game is a bit of an outlier.

Last year, OSU beat Bama by holding Bama to 170 yards rushing. RB Derrick Henry had 95 yards on 13 carries (7.3) and TJ Yeldon had 47 yards on 10 carries (4.7).

Bama threw the ball 36 times (Blake Sims was the QB back then) and rushed 34.

Those are figures close to what MSU needs to force on Bama to win. “Hold” Bama to 170 yards. 140, of course, would be preferred.

And QB Coker isn’t as good as Sims, and the although the Bama WRs are good, there isn’t a guy like Amani Cooper (last year’s first-round draft choice WR).

OSU gained 537 yards, including 285 on the ground. That’s just not going to happen for MSU in this game. OSU scored 42 points. That’s not likely to happen for MSU.

So MSU needs to turn that 170 yards of run offense into about 140.

I think MSU has a solid chance to limit Alabama’s running attack and hold Bama to somewhere around 140 yards rushing.

Below is a passage from the current issue of SPARTAN Magazine (and after another 10 days of getting a chance to watch some more film, although not as much film as I wanted to, due to some family situations that I needed to attend to), I still feel strong about these numbers and conclusions:

Ohio State ranked No. 10 in the nation in rushing offense prior to its loss to Michigan State, but finished the season No. 15 in the country in that category after MSU held the Buckeyes to 86 yards on 29 carries.

Ohio State was held to just 33 percent of its average of 256 yards rushing in its 11 other games this season.

A week earlier, Michigan State held Maryland to 51 percent of its usual rush average, allowing 107 yards on the ground. Maryland ranked No. 24 in the nation in rush offense, but was held to 107 yards on 37 carries (2.9 per).

Then Michigan State clinched the Big Ten Championship by holding Iowa’s good tailbacks and excellent zone run blocking scheme to just 23 percent of its usual ground output. The Spartans allowed just 52 yards on 24 carries (2.2 per) to a team that averaged 222 yards rushing in its 11 other games. MSU’s defense caused Iowa to fall from No. 18 in the nation in rushing offense to No. 28.

In ranking No. 21 in the nation in rushing offense, Alabama has gained fame by Henry’s strong individual stats. Those stats were pumped by Henry’s excellent endurance, and the fact that Alabama didn’t have a deep stable of back-ups for most of the season. Back-up RB Kenyan Drake (6-1, 210, Sr., Powder Springs, Ga.) is an impressive athlete, but missed two games at mid-season with an arm injury sustained on kickoff coverage. He averaged fewer than eight carries a game in his 11 appearances, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt.

Michigan State held its last four opponents to 49 percent of its usual rushing output.

In its last five games against SEC opponents, Alabama has rushed for:

233 yards vs Florida (No. 17 in the nation in rush defense).
286 vs Auburn (No. 90).
235 vs. Mississippi State (No. 72).
250 vs. LSU (No. 24)
117 vs. Tennessee (No. 49).

In ranking No. 21 in the nation in rushing offense, Alabama has gained fame by Henry’s strong individual stats. Those stats were pumped by Henry’s excellent endurance, and the fact that Alabama didn’t have a deep stable of back-ups for most of the season. Back-up RB Kenyan Drake (6-1, 210, Sr., Powder Springs, Ga.) is an impressive athlete, but missed two games at mid-season with an arm injury sustained on kickoff coverage. He averaged fewer than eight carries a game in his 11 appearances, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt.

Michigan State held its last four opponents to 49 percent of its usual rushing output.

In its last five games against SEC opponents, Alabama has rushed for:

233 yards vs Florida (No. 17 in the nation in rush defense).
286 vs Auburn (No. 90).
235 vs. Mississippi State (No. 72).
250 vs. LSU (No. 24)
117 vs. Tennessee (No. 49).

(SPARTAN Magazine editors have not yet researched what went wrong against Tennessee on the ground in the Tide’s come-from-behind, 19-14 victory over the Volunteers. We expect to have that breakdown as part of the SPARTAN Plus Pre-Snap Read).

Alabama has rushed for 1.62 times the opponent’s rush defensive average in those last five SEC games.

MSU ranks No. 7 in the country in rush defense, allowing 113.1 yards per game.

Using the last five games as a trend, we might expect Alabama to rush for 1.62 times the figure Michigan State usually allows, or 183 yards.

So will Alabama impose its percentage will on MSU and rush for 183?

Or will MSU impose its percentage will on Alabama and hold the Tide to 49 percent of its usual output for 101 yards?

Or do you want to go with the theory that the difference will be split between those trends and Alabama will rush for 142 yards?

If you like the 142-yard figure, that might be right about the sweet spot at which MSU needs to keep Alabama’s rushing offense in order to get this game into the last 10 minutes and spring the upset. And that might be the figure that proves to be the most accurate.

**

6. Their run game is very, very good. Not great. But very good. MSU has the chops to limit that area of the game for Bama, something they have to deal with very often.

7. Their pass game is solid, as a complement to their run game. But they aren’t a pass game that will drop back and slice you up with intermediate throws. Their QB Coker is shaky on short passes and is erratic on intermediate throws. He’s kind of like Michigan’s Rudock in that regard.

He throws a pretty good deep ball, which gets us back to Herbstreit’s thoughts on the Ridley deep problem.

8. Can MSU run the ball vs Bama? Probably not. Don’t count on it. But MSU will try. However I don’t think MSu will bang its head against the wall in trying. MSU will do it here and there to probe it and try to get some balance. But MSU is going to play action and move the pocket on first or second down and try to hit up the pass, the way they did vs Michigan. MSU can present Bama with better balance on offense than Bama has seen. That’s key to MSU’s chances.

MSU had trouble running the ball for most of the OSU and Iowa games, but was able to instill a wear-down effect and late success in those games, in putting up good figures on the ground (174 yards rushing vs Iowa and 203 yards rushing vs OSU).

However, Bama might be impervious to being worn down via the run. The late run game edge that MSU established vs Iowa and OSU likely won’t be available to them vs Bama. So if you’re MSU, do you bother trying to land those 25 or 30 body blows of run plays? Maybe. They’ll probe it, see if there’s some light at the end of that tunnel. But i don’t think there will be any. Bama is that good against the run, especially their starters.

(Auburn rushed for 80 yards in the first half vs Bama but finished with only 91 for the game. Auburn had success with inside zone runs in the first half with solid gains of 5, 4, 6 yards. But Bama, not Auburn, became stronger as the game wore on. Bama won 29-13, although Bama was fortunate to be leading at halftime).

The stat recipe for MSU (and the approach to this game, and the must list) stacks up similar to what they faced when they beat Michigan.

Michigan was very good on defense at that point in the season and MSU’s run game had not yet been established, due in part to injuries on the o-line.

MSU couldn’t run the ball against UM, didn’t run the ball against UM, and instead went to the air often and early, and did so with first-and-10 play action passes.

The first play of the game for MSu vs UM was a play-action, sprint-out pass, intermediate to the outside.

Remember when Michigan punted MSU down to the 1-yard line? You’re thinking MSU is in trouble here, they won’t be able to pound out any yards on the ground. So what did MSU do? Play-action, sprint-out pass from their own end zone on first-and-10 for an intermedia pass for about 14 yards.

MSU has the tools to pass on run downs, and the willingness to do so. I think you will and must see MSU do this with success in this game, as one of the several building blocks needed to have a chance to win.

THE MUST LIST

This is going to sound a lot like my pre-Michigan forecast, in terms of the recipe to hang in the game.

Realize that MSU is much better now than when they played Michigan (and Michigan is a bit worse now than they were then).

And Alabama is better than Michigan was then.

Still, the same recipe applies.

The beginning of the recipe is simple, but it might be the most important. Michigan State needs to:

1. Get a couple of first downs.

I’m not saying go the length of the field every time they get the ball. That would be ideal, of course, but not realistic.

Get the ball. Get a couple of first downs. Get to the 40-yard line, and then if you stall, then punt.

(MSU did a decent job of this vs OSU and Michigan. Get a couple of first downs then punt. Sounds simple and maybe not the best thing, but Jimmy Johnson used to say punting the ball is not a bad thing. Get a good punt off).

2. Cover your punts (and kickoffs). Tackle. MSU didn’t do this vs Michigan and it nearly cost them the game, on return yardage alone.

3. Get first downs, punt it, cover your punts, tackle on coverage. And give Bama the ball at its own 21 rather than midfield.

The worst thing you can do against Bama is go three-and-out, and they are the best in the country and forcing you to go three-and-out. You go three-and-out, then Cyrus Jones is a good punt returner (he returned three punts for TDs in one game, vs Charleston Southern.). He’s a good punt returner, but not better than Jabril Peppers and some of the others MSU has faced.

MSU has faced good punt returners and gotten better at covering as the season has progressed. That trend needs to continue.

4. Give Bama the ball on its own 21, make them go the length of the field. Don’t give them short fields based on punt exchanges like Florida did. Bama can get you backed up and convert short-field TD drives. That’s how they strangle you.

Stay out of that situation by merely getting first downs, to begin with. Then punt. Then cover. Then play some defense.

5. Michigan State obviously needs to contain the run. I doubt MSU can stop the run cold like they did vs OSU and Iowa, but that IS possible.

Bama’s run game is very good but not great.

The inside zone run is Bama’s favored run play. Same as OSU. Bama’s inside zone run isn’t any better than OSU’s. And Bama doesn’t have the QB run threat that OSU had.

Stopping the Bama run game is EASIER than stopping the OSU run game. The question is whether MSU faced the OSU run game at OSU’s very, very focused best. Maybe, maybe not.

Will Bama be at its very, very focused best? Probably.

Although OSU’s run game is better than Bama’s, I think we will see a more fiery level of effort and preparation from Bama than we saw from an over-confident Buckeye team.

Still, my belief is that MSU’s d-line is the best Bama has seen, and MSU is capable of taking on those double teams and winning quite often up front, and containing Bama’s inside zone runs.

Stopping Bama’s run game means:

A. Handling the inside zone. MSU can do that.

B. Being strong against the counter/cutback zone. MSU will do a better job of containing the outside than Auburn did in this video (I ran this video at the SpartanMag Bunker, too, because I didn’t know if I would get this out in time):

C. Be solid and square against Bama’s jet sweeps. They run the shovel jet sweep to speed No. 3 quite a bit, like five or six times a game. Kind of like MSU does with Burbridge or RJ Shelton.

They do it with speed and they do it pretty well. MSU has had three weeks to get ready for it. MSU should be able to contain it, maybe give up a first down to it and a gainer here or there, but MSU shouldn’t fall prey to a 55-yard jet sweep TD. Shouldn’t is the key word. However, if they catch you on an inside blitz and a single-safety secondary, you can get in trouble vs jet sweeps.

D. Tackle.

Tackle, tackle, tackle. Get ‘em down, to the ground.

Sounds simple, but MSU players and coaches talked about it this week, the need to plain old tackle because DerrickHenry is very, very good at fall-forward yardage. He’ll elude a tackle here and there, break a tackle here and there, but the base of his game is making a strong cut, getting downhill, and falling forward for 2, 3, 4 extra yards while he’s in the process of going down. He’s tall and strong quick and fast and is a workout phenom. It takes a while to get him down.

Tackle.

“The first guy that hits him needs to get him to the ground,” said Shilique Calhoun.

Others will be there to help gang tackle. But the first contact needs to be significant contact.

Tackle.

Many of tried. MSU must prove that its defense is better than the rest at tackling him. Sounds simple. But this game has some simple terms at its base, and this is one of them.

Get Henry to the ground.

6. If you have contained their ground attack (which means standing firm vs double teams, limiting their inside zone game, and the jet sweep, and getting Henry on the ground) then you have a good chance to contain them to 140 yards rushing.

Do that, and get some first downs on offense, and punt and cover. And you could get into a low-scoring game in the second quarter (which was the case for Bama vs Florida, LSU and Auburn).

Bama pulled away in those games in slow-burn fashion.

Bama also hit a big play pass vs Florida to begin pulling away in that game.

7. If you contain their run and cover your punts and stay out of a negative field position avalanche, and you give Bama a big field … THEN there is a chance that this game could revert to the QBs. And at that point, MSU gains the advantage.

In order to get there, you puts get first downs, play defense, cover the punts, and contain the run.

And in the process, Michigan State MUST prevent the big play. Don’t give up the big one.

Alabama is pretty good at hitting the deep shot. It’s not what they do best. But no. 3 Ridley can fly and they will test MSU deep with it.

My point is that if Bama doesn’t get a field position edge, and they don’t run the ball as well as they usually do, Bama does NOT trust its QB. The coaches would rather not put QB Coker in position to have to make important plays on third-and-medium or third-and-long.

My point is that Bama might NEED to hit the big one to Ridley.

And that’s where this thing reverts back to what Herbstreit was talking about. And I agree that this could be a pivotal matchup in the game: When Bama goes deep to Ridley, can MSU cover? If he’s open, can Coker connect with the pass?

8. Ridley (6-1, 188, Fr., Coconut Creek, Fla) is the next great WR for Alabama. He had 75 catches this year for 893 yards, with 5 TDs. He’s something like a 21-year old freshman.

He was ranked the No. 1 WR in the nation last year by Rivals.com and No. 4 in Florida..

He has a ton of talent, but he’s not yet the Amani Cooper or Julio Jones that he might become. He’s good, but he’s not great - and he is not working with a great QB.

Alabama is going to go deep to him. They try it two or three times a game anyway. They might need to do it more against MSU, partly because MSU might contain the run well and partly because MSU has a potential weakness vs the deep ball.

MSU might do EVERYTHING well enough to pull an upset in this game and see it come unraveled with one or two deep shots to Ridley. We saw MSU’s near-perfect second half against Iowa nearly get derailed by one deep pass for a TD.

As for that deep pass for a TD, vs Hicks, when I watched it again, I thought Hicks played the route with his feet better than I initially believed. His feet got him there. He was in position to make a play on the ball, he just failed to make a play on the ball in the air. I’m not sure he will improve that part of his game in time for this game, but he might. Arjen Colquhoun improved his ability to play the ball in the deep part of the field as the season progressed and his confidence soared.

The first thing you need is the feet. I think Hicks’ feet and turn are better than last year. I haven’t seen him get flat-out left behind this year like he did last year.

But I’m still not sure he (and MSu’s safeties) are at National Championship level of playing the deep ball against a guy that can fly like No. 3.

Bama is going to test it. Lane Kiffin, the Bama o-coordinator, believes in testing you with the deep ball no matter who you are. So does Saban. And i think we may see more of it in this game and they won’t wait till the first play of the fourth quarter to do it like Iowa did.

**

They’ll try Ridley vs Hicks. But Saban, as a rule, prefers to try to test his best WR against a safety.

They’ll put No. 3 Ridley in the slot. They’ll formation and route-combination to hold the corner, and to try to make it hard for MSU’s LBs to get a re-route. And it will be Ridley with his excellent quickness and acceleration vs a safety such as Demetrious Cox, or Montae Nicholson or RJ Williamson.

There might be times when MSU will be better off to clutch and hold and grab and get a pass interference than try to recover and run with him. Hicks was smart to do this vs Iowa the second time they tried to burn him deep with a double move. He just grabbed the WR. Smart move. Might need more of that.

So are Cox and Nicholson ready to match up one on one vs No. 3 Ridley? Probably not. Those guys are good athletes, and I’m sure they have been repping to try to get ready for the deep verticals that they WILL see vs. No. 3.

MSU considers all deep passes to be low-percentage plays, and they feel they can survive them.

If Bama connects with a deep one, then the beaten DB MUST at least be able to make a tackle and give the defense a chance to play some red zone defense. Against Iowa, Hicks didn’t get beaten by the deep route, he was beaten in failing to play the ball, and then compounded that problems by not making the tackle and allowing the TD.

Ridley deep vs the MSU secondary? It’s something MSU will see four or five times, maybe a little more. The game could be decided by one or more of these four or five plays.

8. So what about MSU’s offense. Get first downs? That sounds simple .But how do you do it?

Well, getting something going on the ground will be very hard.

Bama will two-gap on first-down. That means the d-linemen will plow into the o-lineman across from them rather than trying to slant quickly into the gaps.

We have explained two-gapping in Plus before. You should probably know what it is by now.

Bama prefers to two-gap, and allow the big LBs to roam free behind a dominant, mammoth d-line that is good at moving the line of scrimmage back a yard or two.

Okay, so what do you do about that? You can pound your head against the wall and try to run against it like LSU.

Or you can do what MSu did against Michigan, which is what I think we’ll see in this game.

I expect MSU to take the game out of the phone booth on first downs. MSU can play-action pass on first-downs.

With Bama two-gapping, that makes their pass rush not quite as quick and athletic.

So you can play action, half-roll, shoot around some intermediate passes.

That’s what MSU did against UM. Get some first downs. Move the chains, run some clock, get away from the field position avalanche.

What About MSU’s Base Run Plays?

Well, I wouldn’t expect much. Bama usually holds good running offenses to about 95 yards or less.

MSU rushed for only 58 yards vs Michigan. MSU needs a better figure than that. MSU passed for 328 vs Michigan and although I think UM’s cornerbacks are better than Alabama’s, I don’t think MSU can expect to throw for 328 against Alabama.

* The x-factor for MSU’s run game is Jim Bollman. He always has a new subtle little wrinkle for the run game. It might not deliver the 40-yard explosive play. But it’s enough to crack a decent little run on first-down once in a while. I’m not sure what he’ll have, but I look forward to monitoring it.

Sometimes it’s just a little guard trap that they haven’t shown all year. Or a fake wham and fold to the outside on a sweep. I could list several things over the years.

I have no idea what he might try against Bama’s two-gapping dline on first down, or the upfield pressure they see on third-and-long. But Bollman will have some wild cards for his old boss, and Saban knows it.

For instance, LSu had a little wrinkle that went for a 16-yard gain on a QB zone read keeper. The zone read wasn’t the strange part. The strange wrinkle was that they optioned the DT, big freshman No. 94 on this play. They left him unblocked, the QB drew him upfield and went around him for a gain of 16.

Zone read option keepers by the QB isn’t something you want to do a lot vs Bama, but you might spring one here or there on a drive that can help keep you in the game.

What About MSU’s Pass Game?

Cook was great vs the man-to-man coverages of Michigan and Rutgers. Michigan was very good in coverage and Cook was as good or better at placing the ball in areas where Cook’s frisbee-catching dawgs could go up and snag high passes and back-shoulder fades and the like.

However, he could bank on UM playing man-to-man most of the time. It was somewhat easy to read.

Bama is harder to read at pre-snap.

And if a CB is pressing at the line of scrimmage, you can’t be sure it’s going to be man-to-man.

For instance, if a Bama CB is pressing, and you run a short fade to Burbridge, and Cook gets into his trigger to throw the ball to the back shoulder and then, boom, the CB stops in his tracks and is playing cover-two zone instead of man. That means he releases Burbridge to a safety over the top. That means the CB is in position to INT that back-shoulder fade.

MSU knows this. They’ve been into the film. Whether or not Cook and MSU feels they can read man vs cover-two, I don’t know. They’ll look for tendencies, postures and tells. Saban has coached his guys not to tip off with tendencies, postures and tells.

But Bama is usually man-to-man on third down, and in key situations of games.

MSU can attack with back shoulder fades against tight coverage in this game, and MSU’s WRs might find it just a little bit easier to work against these CBs than Michigan’s, believe it or not. But there will be some risk, due to the changing pictures of Bama’s secondary.

O’Connor on Bama: (I’m using O’Connor quotes because he knows the game plan and sometimes gives up a little more info than Connor Cook):

Will the windows be as tight as they were against Iowa?

“Alabama changes way more,” O’Connor said. “They throw so many things coverage-wise. Usually you can come out and say, ‘The other team’s base defense is this.’ But Alabama does everything. They try to stay cover-four. Some two-man (two-deep man-to-man underneath). They will go middle closed cover-one, some cover-zero. They do it all.

“The thing will be to really slow down before the snap and really see what’s going on and really analyze what the defense is doing. But there are big-play opportunities. One of the stats that we noticed is the yards per pass play is very high, like 13th worst in the (SEC) and like No. 111 in the FBS.

“So we know we have to get the ball out, we’ve got to make plays and put it downfield and take some shots downfield.”

Alabama looks like they prefer man-to-man on third down. That’s somewhat comforting to know what they’ll probably do. But they keep two safeties deep when doing it, right?

“A lot of two-man, similar to what Iowa did. With press. We haven’t done well against two-man so we are expecting more of it. So we have some routes ready for that.”

**

As stated, “two-man” is two deep safeties, man-to-man underneath. Cook has said this is his least-favorite coverage to throw against, and he has seen a lot of it in recent games.

Cook has grown to like throwing vs one-deep man-to-man (also known as cover-one). The defense usually sends a blitzer when playing cover-one. Cook is fine with that. He trusts his protection.

More than that, Cook is comfortable in his ability to look the safety one way and then throw the other way.

The problem with two-man is that there are two safeties back there and it’s harder to direct that level of defense with your eyes. There’s more traffic. It’s a problem.

O’Connor said MSU will have some new stuff to go against Bama’s two-man. I don’t know what it will be, or how it will do. We’ll be monitoring it.

**

Here’s the overall problem Bama presents:

They stop the run with the standard 7.

They get pressure on the QB with the standard 4.

This means they can always keep two safeties back, if they wish. This makes it harder to go deep for big plays and harder to hit intermediate routes to move the chains. You’re outnumbered back there.

Alabama can and will send an extra rusher from time to time, but they haven’t been a blitz-heavy team. Haven’t needed to be.

**

WHAT BAMA DOES: Offense

* Inside zone runs, usually out of shot gun.

* They will be in shot gun or pistol way more than you remember from Alabama.

In the first half vs LSU, Bama was in shot gun or pistol on 33 snaps, and under center only eight times.

* They’ll run the jet sweep stuff.

* They’ll run the cutback zone run stuff.

* They try to establish threats to the perimeter early in the game, stretch you out of the box, stretch you horizontally away from the inside zone. Against Auburn, they began the game with a jet sweep, then bubble screens. And their WR blocking on those bubble screens was shoddy:

(By the way, when i look at the video below again, on the first highlight, maybe No. 16’s crack block wasn’t as bad as I initially thought. It was more functional than I thought. But the shaky WR blocking in the rest of the film remains less than Saban-like).

* Their offense is not dynamic. They have the pounding inside zone stuff that most teams can’t deal with. But MSU can.

From there, Alabama has TRIED to become balanced with shot gun tempo stuff. They will run hurry-up. They will do some zone read, but it ends up looking like a knockoff version of what OSU and Oregon can do.

Bama’s QB can run with the ball a little bit, a little less than Iowa’s Beathard, but not nearly the run threat that OSU and Oregon have for their tempo zone read stuff.

It’s as if Saban wanted to add some of those elements to his program and he hired Kiffin to do it but I’m not sure that’s Kiffin’s strength. I’m not sure what Kiffin’s strength is. But their attempt to do zone read option passing to the perimeter isn’t great. The QB’s throws to the outside are often sprayed around, which is a killer to the timing of a zone read bubble.

But Bama will probably try to do some of that zone read bubble screen. They haven’t been all that good at it, and MSU has become quite good at defending it, with Darien Harris quicker, smarter and physical than what MSU has had in the slot in the past. That’s where the defending of those plays begins.

Secondly, their QB isn’t the threat to keep the ball that a JT Barrett or Braxton Miller or the QB from Oregon is or was, so that allows Harris to cheat away from the box just a bit if he reads bubble screen than he would vs OSU.

* Maybe Bama will add some dynamic layers to their offense for this game. If they can’t get the inside zone run going, they will need to. And if they don’t hit the deep ball to Ridley, their offense could begin looking ordinary. I said the same thing about OSU. I think Bama is playing with more vigor than OSU. But I think there’s a solid chance Bama’s offensive production will get cut down a bit in this game.

* Bama has worn down defenses in the second half of games.
Henry’s run production increases dramatically after 25 or 30 carries.

But MSU might not fall prey to this dynamic. MSU has the chops to get off the field on three-and-outs, or short drives. This keeps their d-line fresh. And MSU can rotate a good two-deep of DTs, better than Bama has seen, and they are surrounded by teammates who will play square and sound.

Get off the field, make Bama punt, stay fresh, and Bama’s penchant for wearing down a defense might not take hold as easily against this MSU team.

And by the way, statistically, this is the worst offense of the Saban era. They piled a lot of stats in to the RB Henry and he won the big trophy. But Bama’s overall ground offense ranks just around No. 25 in the country. If MSU stops Bama cold, there will be stats that would suggest that we should have known this was coming.

From there, does Bama’s QB have the ability to hang in there and carry the team? His numbers are okay. He seems to go 16 of 25 for about 200 yards every week. But he’s nervous type of guy.

Check out these films:

Things To Do

* Bama went with a 4-3 ‘under’ defense vs LSU’s I formation.

The 4-3 under brings an OLB up to the line of scrimmage, up into the tight end. It creates a 5-2 look. It’s the same defense Saban used as the base defense at MSU in the mid-to-late ‘90s, and the same one Dantonio used at Ohio State in 2002. But the 5-2 look with the Sam LB up on the TE went out of style when spread formations became the rage.

Bama’s Sam LB dominated LSU’s TE blocking all night and set the edge vs RB Fournette.

MSU’s best TE (Lang) will get a good fight vs the Sam LB when MSU goes with its offset I, but Lang will be as good or better blocker than than what the Bama Sam has seen. That doesn’t mean the Bama Sam (Dillon Lee) will lose, it will just be another indication to Bama that they are up against a quality opponent.

So what can MSU do in a situation like this? MSU’s chances of running the ball vs Bama’s front seven might not be good with a two-back look. But before MSU even tries it, don’t be surprised if MSU play-action passes the first time MSU shows the off-set I, if Bama goes with the 5-2 under.

Here’s the Bama ‘under’ defense stacking up LSU’s I formation:

* Bama allowed just 13 drives to reach the red zone since their loss to Mississippi.

* Alabama has faced only one Top 30 scoring offense, Ole Miss, gave up 43 points

* Bama has four pick-sixes, tied for second most in the NCAA (key vs Texas AM).

vs LSU: LSU threw an INT on first play of the second half when down 13-10. Bama is often in a tight game at halftime. Bam trailed Arkansas 7-3 at halftime and Bama led just 10-7 after three quarters.

* What worked: Tennessee TD drive to tie it at 7-7. Tennessee completed a crossing route vs cover-one. Threw a TD pass vs cover two when the safety didn’t get over to the sideline in time on third and goal from the 11.

* Gary Danielson: “For the last six or seven years that I’ve been talking to teams that are matched up against Saban, they all say the same thing: We feel more confident running the ball out of the spread against Alabama than with
backs and a TE. LSU played out of two-back.”

* Bama blitzes about six times per game.

BAMA PERSONNEL

* Copmleting 65 pct of his passes, 17 TDs, 8 Ints.

Bellotti calls him Bama’s most improved player since September.

Throws a decent deep ball.

Is more inaccurate on short throws to the flat that most QBs you would see on a stage like this.

He will make mistakes, like the near pick-six he had against Auburn in the second quarter that could have turned that game.

* Overall, he is a guy that Bama wants to be functional, wants to manage the game. Saban seems to spend a lot of time trying to manage Coker. Coker doesn’t seem like the most confident guy.

If MSU is going to win, a mediocre game by Coker is probably needed. And that’s possible.

Some observations:

+ Eluded a sack, twisting and near-falling, got outside on a third-and-8, scrambled and dove for a gain of 7. Picked up fourth-and-1 late in the 3Q. A couple of plays later, spun and slipped out of a sack, got to the perimeter and threw deep to 13 Stewart for 34 yard TD. That was a good throw on the run, one of his better ones. Put Alabama up 19-6 with 5:14 to go in the third quarter of a game that was played a lot more closely than that score.

- Late with ball vs Tennessee when he had an open WR on a skinny post. Completed it, but late - even Saban said so on an edition of SEC Film Room.

* Saban said again he was late with the ball on a third-and-11 conversion vs Tennessee in the fourth quarter vs Vols 2/man.

* Stays on first read a little too long, not comfortable getting to his second read quickly.
(I made this observation about staying on one read too long and then heard Rick Neuheisal say on the radio that Kiffin signals to the QB which WR to throw to before the snap, and Coker stays on that WR the whole route. After hearing that, and then watching him stare down receivers, I think Neuheisal is right. This is very uncommon and I would think dangerous. He stares down receivers).

* Allowed a coverage sack on 2-7 in the third quarter vs LSU. Not good at coming off to his second read.

* I’m not impressed with his brain. Slid the protection the wrong way vs Florida on the first drive, ended up with an unblocked DE hitting him blind and clean for a sack/fumble.

* Late with an over route to Ridley on the first play of the second drive vs Florida. DB got a good break on it, under cut the route, broke it up.

+ Good play on third-and-8 conversion for 12 to Ridley on a switch-release crossing route vs blitz man-to-man, backing up and taking a hit to make the throw. Not the greatest throw, but a good read. That was with Bama up 20-10 late in the third quarter.

+ pretty good deep pass to 3 late firs half firs play of the drive completed to the 2. gain of 54.

- Terrible throw on a slot out route to Ridley on third and goal at the 5-yard line. High school level throw. Missed it low and inside.

+ Hit Stewart in the cover-two hole to the short side for 19 late in the 1h vs LSU.

- Terrible throw late in the 1H vs Auburn, to the bunch on an angle route, telegraphed it, WR 16 slipped but that wasn’t the problem. Countess the safety walked it, hit him in the numbers, should have been a pick six to give Auburn a 13-9 lead. Instead Alabama’s Griffith hit the field goal to give Alabama a 12-6 lead.

* My takeaway: Alabama’s QB is going to make some mistakes. Will he miss low and outside to the ground for INCs? Or late and into the hands of a DB. If and when he misses into the hands of a DB, MSU obviously needs to secure the INT and not let a pick-six drop through his hands like it did vs Auburn in the 2Q.

“He is the most improved player on that team from the start of t e season to the finish,” Mike Bellotti said. “The game manager phrase is over-used. He will make some throws down the field, just don’t make the mistakes that cause turnovers that can take you out of the game.”

Will Coker be the choker?

“If his deficiencies result in a punt, so be it. If his deficiencies result in a turnover, now you’ve got problems. As this playoff unfolds, the teams facing Alabama need make big plays and they need Alabama to do something uncharacteristic,” - said ESPN’s Tom Luginbill. “It’s okay to take a chance on the 50-50 ball when you consider Steward and Ridley. Those guys can go up and make a difference for you. The calculated risk on the 50-50 ball? Yes. Making bad decisions with the ball over the middle of the field or to the sideline late? No. You can’t do it in double- and triple-coverage where it’s an ill-advised throw.”

RB DERRICK HENRY (6-3, 242, Jr.. Yulee, Fla.)

* The only defense in the country that can shut down Alabama’s Derrick Henry is probably Alabama. The second most equipped defense to do it has become Michigan State.

* He had 65 yards on 19 carries vs Florida in the first half.

* 71 yards on 22 carries through the midway point of the third quarter vs florida.

*Averaging 209 yards in Alabama’s last six games against SEC teams.

* Henry 5.8 on first 30. 6.5 yards per carry after 30th carry.

ZONE COUNTER
* They like the zone counter step to the outside to the TE side and 88 will hold to hook the edge.

+ Gain of 30 on first run play vs Auburn on silver inside zone, cutback right. (CB for Auburn didn’t contain the outside gap). SEE FILMS

* A little more wiggle than you think, deceptively agile. Just agile enough. One wiggle and go.

* Very good fall-forward yardage, through the tackle.

Vs Auburn
first half: 16 rushes, 102 yards
Next 16 rushes: 74 yards
Last 14 rushes: 95 yards, last 14 offensive plays for bam a

RB 17 KENYAN DRAKE (6-1, 202, Sr., Powder Spring, Ga.)

* Injured last year, struggled most of the beginning of this season.

* He could be a factor in this game, has some explosiveness but hasn’t played much this year.

+ Play action circle route when for 22 exciting yards inside the 5-yard line on their first play of the 2H after an INT. Slip screen.

* Has plenty of talent. Coaches have been telling him he has been trying to do too much, tried to dial him down.

* Arm injury vs Ole Miss. Was back late in the year.

Drake has 72 carries for 380 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and a touchdown, and 24 catches for 250 yards and a score.

WR 3 CALVIN RIDLEY

* Ridley deep streak slot TD speed vs Georgia.

* Ridley 140 yards receiving vs Arkansas when Ark loaded up to stop the run (Henry had 97 yards rushing).

+ Very nice 17 yard out, comeback. “His ability to break down quickly and come back to the ball is innate,” Danielson said. “That is impossible to teach.” Can come back to the ball so quickly, but is the QB on time and in tune with it at all times? Would be so much better with a plus QB.

* Very good speed. Great speed. Went deep vs Hargraves of Fla. vs press.
* Good catch in traffic, on deep 54 yarder had to wait on the ball. under thrown.
* Second-team All-SEC

* Dangerous on fly sweeps. They use it a lot.
* In the first four games of the year had just 17 catches for 125 yards, and then in the next four games had 28 catches for 400 yards.

* They love to use him in the slot on third downs on shallow crossing routes.
+ Deep route on a 1-10 between the 40s vs Auburn vs off quarters. Max pro, two-man route. Slant and go started of slow, speed cut to the outside Corner had him covered. Threw him open. Split the coverage into the seam. vs true freshman CB.

"So we're going to have to make sure we mix in our play calls and have a feel for when we make sure they're not able to isolate corners or safeties,” said Mike Tressel. “Because there's going to be times they're definitely going to try to suck everybody in and isolate. So there's going to be a little bit of a chess match going on."

WR 13 ARDARIUS STEWART (6-0, 193, Soph. Fultondale, Ala.)

* 54 catches on the year, 600 yards, 4 TDs.

* Keith Mumphery type of guy.

+ Quality block on the safety on counter to Henry for 15 yard TD late in the Tennessee game. (jet sweep fake, counter power)

- Dropped pass on deep crosser vs LSU in the first quarter.

+ Had three catches for 70 yards in the fourth quarter vs Tennessee.

+ Went high to catch an accurate pass on a 15-yard corner route late in the first half against Auburn. Seems to play bigger than his size.

TE 84 HALE HENTGES (6-5, 325, Jefferson City, Mo).
* 1 catch on the year.
+ Quality blocker. They ran a power pulling the guard behind him and he cleared the area vs DE 95 of Auburn for Henry to gain 7 yards.

* Good block, moving his feet to get to the perimeter and hook the outside LB on a jet sweep to Ridley for a gain of 7 in the third quarter v Auburn.

TE 88 OJ HOWARD (6-6, 242, Jr., Prattville, Ala.)

* 13 catches on the year.
+ Gian of 15 on a simple counter boot TE out. Lane Kiffin likes the boot to the field. They call it a sneak route. Opposite side back out in the fist level on that route on a 2 on 1 on an OLB in tha area.
* Good looking guy who doesn’t seem to do anything all that well right now.

FB Mike Nysewander (6-1, 237, Sr., Hoover. Ala.)
* Functional FB. Not spectacular.

OFFENSIVE LINE
(Since 2009 Alabama has had 47 players drafted, 10 were o-linemen)

LT 74 ROBINSON
* First team All SEC
* Moves real well laterally in pass protection. Moves like an NFL player.

LG 71 ROSS PIERSCHBACHER (6-4, 298, Fr., Cedar Falls, Iowa)
- Got beat by a DT slanting inside by Auburn on a goal line play by Dontavious Russell. “That has been the problem for Alabama, they have been allowing penetration all year,” said Gary Danielson. Loss of 8 on first-and-goal at the 1 (TE 88 got pancaked by 55).

74/71 double team on an inside zone
- Got not movement vs Auburn DE 95 on an inside zone gain of 1 in the first quarter.

C 70 RYAN KELLY (6-5, 300, Sr.)
Rimington Award Winner
* First-team All SEC
Projected as a second- or third-round NFL Draft choice by Senior Bowl director Phil Savage.
* SEC Scholar Athlete of the Year.
* Earned his master’s
- Beaten back by a half yard by two-gapping Auburn nose guard 94 on an inside zone gain of 1 in the first quarter.
* I’m not sure he’s better than Iowa’s center, Blythe. Not sure he’s better than Jack Allen. Good player, not great.

RG 50 ALPHONSE TAYLOR (6-5, 325, Jr., Mobile, Ala.)
* A bigger, slightly better version of Donavon Clark.
+ Good vision and excellent change of direction as a pull guard, looking for a jersey, turning and finding and clobbering a LB.
- Missed a block on the LSU MLB on an inside zone in the second quarter against LSU.
+ Good width. Gets out to a LB low and under control and with power.
+ Good pull and arc block on a short-side sweep late in the first half against Auburn, finding the MLB and pancaking him.
+ Excellent arc block to the short side, TE side, shot gun on sweep right late in the 1H vs Auburn. Turned the corner and got out to the play-side LB and belted him. Henry turned the corner for a gain of 16. Auburn had taken their LBs out of the box. Had no one scraping over the top.

C/RG Double team
+ Moved Auburn DT MOntravius Adams off the line, late into the play on an inside zone for a gain of 4.

RT 76 DOMINICK JACKSON (6-7, 320, Sr., Cupertino, Calif, San Mateo CC)
* Second-team All-SEC
* Long arms, moves pretty well in pass pro, solid with the kick set, keeping his hands cocked and ready to punch. Doesn’t have to flail to cover ground laterally.

TE 89 Brandon Green, offensive tackle playing TE
* Blown up by Auburn DE to blow up play at the 1-yard line.

DEFENSIVE LINE

* They are the best in the country at two-gapping, knocking the line back, reading and disengaging to come off either shoulder to make the tackle WITH the linebacker arriving at the same time.

* There IS a drop-off from the first-string DTs to the second-string. It was a pronounced difference vs Auburn.

LB/DE 30 DENZELL DEVALL (6-2, 243, Sr., Bastrop, La)
* Will play up or down.
+ Good job slanting inside on second-and-4 in the second quarter vs Auburn, taking on the RT, shock and get off, made the tackle. Explosive, strong play. That was a case of one-gapping. They do that occasionally, especially on third down.

(DE 93 JONATHAN ALLEN, 6-3, 272, Leesburg, Va.)
* Quick take off, hit QB late on an INC. When he hurries you, he’ll bury you.
* Quickest take-off I’ve seen from a DT all year. Trap him.
* First-team All-SEC
* Big sack in the last two minutes vs Tennessee, protecting a 19-14 lead. Ran a simple DT/DT stunt inside. He went through the C, put the C on this back, got the sack. 93 hit the C a split second before the C knew what was coming.
+ Rock-solid firm vs pull guard power at POA vs Auburn.

DE 86 A’SHAWN ROBINSON (6-4, 320, Jr. Fort Worth, Texas)
* First-team All-SEC

DE 90 JARRAN REED (6-4, 315, Sr., Goldsboro, NC)
- Beaten back by Auburn RG one-on-one on an Auburnpower for a gain of 13 in the first quarter.
+ Very good vs C/RG double team vs Auburn on a 1-10 in the first quarter, gain of 1.

************
second string:

NG 95 DARREN LAKE (6-3, 323, Jr., York, Ala.)
* plays nose in goal line situations.

(DT 94 DARON PAYNE 6-2, 315, Fr., Birmingham, Ala.)
- Driven back while trying to two-gap on a 1-10 run in the 2Q vs Auburn. Driven back two yards by the center. QB kept it on a zone read option, gain of 6.
- 94 beaten back by the center, gain of 6. (Bama replaced him with the starting four on the next play and one-gap slanted.

(DE 54 Dalvin Tomlinson, 6-2, 290, Jr., McDonaugh, Ga.)
+ Beat the LSU LG back on a 1-10, shoving him back back a yard and diseganged and sent the FB into Fournett for a loss of 2. He beat two blockers and beat them into the RB.
- Beaten back a yard vs double team vs Auburn in the red zone at the point of attack on a trap. Gain of 2. Edge blitzer chased the play down from the backside.

DE 57 DJ Pettway (6-2, 270, Sr., Pensacola, Fla./East Mississippi CC)
+ pretty good quickness to the outside in pursuit of a zone read handoff, laying out and pursuing. Looked kind of athletic, but he’s a DE. Reasonably athletic for a DE.
= Average at POA vs Auburn TE on outside zone in second quarter. Gain of 4.
- Beaten back on the next play by Auburn left tackle, Gain of 6.

DE 56 DPR TIM WILLIAMS (6-4, 230, Jr., Baton Rouge, La.)
take off! FAST take-off.

* he is a problem on third down. Very, very good pass rusher. He only plays on third down passing situations.

* Has slippery shoulders.
* 7.5 sacks.
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 4 in Louisiana and No. 113 in the nation. Also visited Miami and Florida State.
On third down passing situations, watch for Alabama to put No. 56 Tim Williams at right defensive end.

He is what Saban used to call a DPR - a designated pass rusher. He takes it to the nth power for the Crimson Tide.

He has 9.5 sacks on the year, while usually playing (I would estimate) fewer than 15 plays per game. That is a ridiculous level of productivity.

He is a 6-4, 230, Jr., from Baton Rouge. He was a 4-star recruit, ranked No. 4 in Louisiana and No. 113 in the nation.

He is super quick with his take-off. His take-off is faster than Joey Bosa, I would say.

He doesn't transition to power as well as Bosa, isn't the all-around player that Bosa is, but I think he's quicker at the outset then a step faster as he gets into it. Then he has the ankle and hip flex to turn the corner at a high speed like a sports car.

AND he has this upper body jelliness about him. He can dip his shoulder, make himself small. He gets his shoulders moving and his hands moving WHILE his feet are churning.

It's hard to get hand placement on him, among other things.

In the film below, it's a rare occasion in which he is late off the ball. I'm not sure what happened. He didn't see the snap or something. Usually he is ultra quick with his take-off, but I don't have that on film. Sorry about that, but you can imagine.

The film below shows the ghostliness of his shoulder movement in ducking under an o-lineman's attempt to pass protect against him.

LSU put in a sixth offensive lineman for extra pass protection on this play, specifically for him. But he just moved out wider to a wider nine technique and took on that extra o-lineman in one-on-one fashion. (Might this have left Alabama a gap short vs an inside run? Maybe. I didn't bother to do the math. But it was third-and-long, so they weren't concerned).

Anyway, trust me when I say this guy is super quick. Then look at this subtle upper body move in this film:

What Auburn did to take advantage of Williams’ upfield attitude:

DPR 32 RASHON EVANS
+ Chased downy the Auburn scrambling QB with a shoulder tackle for a gain of 6 on third-and-8. Had rushed from right DE in the passing situation.

*******

LINEBACKERS

starting LBs vs Aub: 19, 10, 30

MLB 19 REGGIE RAGLAND (6-2, 254, Madison, Ala.)

* First-team All-SEC
* Big thumper who also runs well. Like a faster version of Taiwan Jones.

LB 10 REUBEN FOSTER (6-1, 244, Jr., Auburn, Ala.)
* Can run, brings power.
* NFL player.

“Foster and Rangland run sideline-to-sideline as good as any pair in college football,” said Gary Danielson.

LB 22 RYAN ANDERSON (6-2, 249, Jr., Daphne, Ala.)
* Back-up LB. Would probably start for most teams in the country.
* Sack vs Fla, his fifth of the year, two-point stance, speed rush, hip flex to the outside sack his fifth of the year.
* vs LT of LSU, shock and control, got off, TFL on a 1-10 in the second quarter, off tackle run right at him.

“Their linebackers are big, but they run so well horizontally across the field,” O’Connor said. “If we’re running drag routes or wide routes with our backs, their linebackers will run with them. They’re 6-2, 240 or 250 but they run very well. And they are very physical, the back four.”

SAM LB 25 DILLON LEE (6-4, 243, Buford, Ga.)
* Occasional starter LB, blew the TE back in moving the line in stuffing Fournette early in the LSU game.
* He plays the Sam vs I formations.

As for the size and speed and power of the Bama LBs, Price said:

“Ohio State’s got a couple of those guys too. Josh Perry is a pretty big dude and he runs around and flies out there. They’re a great team with a lot of good talent. It’ll be a good matchup. We’re excited. It’ll be a fun matchup for us.”

DEFENSIVE BACKS

*******

CB 5 CYRUS JONES (5-10, 194, Sr., Baltimore)
* MSU has a height advantage vs him. LSU tried to throw at him inside the 5-yard line on a fade while in heavy personnel vs a 5-man d-line. Drew pass interference.
- Beaten deep in press on a switch release go route by Auburn’s No. 5. WR was open by a step but the ball was under thrown and Cyrus hung on to barely make the play and avoid interference. That was on third-and-2, a surprise deep route vs a blitz. And Auburn missed a field goal on the next play that would have tied the game at 9-9 before halftime.
- Beaten on inside release slant and go on third and long in the third quarto rvs Florida, but the QB missed him.
- Allowed a 14-yard out vs cover three bail in the second quarter vs LSU.
- Tested him deep on the very next play, was open, under thrown, hit him in the back, called for face guarding pass interference, involuntary.

CB 26 MARLON HUMPHREY (6-1, 186, Fr., Hoover, Ala.)
- Beaten deep by LSU’s Travin Dural (6-2, 203, Jr) on third-and-18 from their own 1-yard line for a 37 yard gain,
+Solid, physical tackle vs the run vs Fournett on a 1-10 in the second quarter.
+ Good job getting of a WR block to make tack o jet sweep for 2 yards, loading up and hitting WR hard to get off the block.

S 4 EDDIE JACKSON
* First-team All-SEC
- Was targeted six times LAST YEAR vs Auburn, giving up 144 yards and 2 TDs. Sammy Coates beat him twice for TDs, and was pulled. Moved to safety during the off-seson.
+ Good hit in deep middle cover three vs Auburn WR, as you would expect. Completed, though, vs a five-man rush for about 22 yards.

S 24 MATIAS-SMITH
- Beaten deep for a 40-yard TD pass by Dural vs a corner blitz on 2-12 in the second quarter to cut the lead to 10-7.
+ hard hitter on a toss sweep in the second quarter vs LSU.
* Good hitter for a former corner.

N 29 MICA FITZPARICK
+ Plays slot nickel star in nickel. Very good pass break up on slant on third down vs Auburn in the 1Q.

* Bama gives up the second-most passes of plus-20 yards in the SEC.

DRAKE
* kick returner
* fumbled a kickoff vs Ole Miss. Almost fumbled vs Florida. Has a pin in his surgerically-repaired right hand.

SPECIAL Teams
* Punter averaged 48 yards per punt last year as a freshman, started out slowly this season but has been picking it up.

* Fitzpatrick 29 nickel back very good gunner, fast.

* Nysewander tough guy on kickoff coverage, FB.

* Kicker Adam Griffith hit 55 yarder at the end of the first half vs LSU to give Alabama a 13-10 lead.

* Kicker 5 for 5 vs Auburn. Hit a 50-yarder at the end of the first half against Auburn to make it 12-6.

* Blocked a punt vs Fla. Then had a block on and allowed a punt return for TD. That was the first punt return for a TD Alabama has allowed since 2008.

* Cyrus Jones, three straight punt returns for TD in late November. Vs Charleston Southern had punt returns for TD of 43, 43 and 72 yards.

ADD IT ALL UP

* Bama gives up the second-most passes of plus-20 yards in the SEC. I haven’t figured out why that is. Cook needs to be great in this game, everyone agrees with that.

* MSU is loose. Too loose? Last year they say Bama was loose and OSu was tight and focused. Now Bama claims to be tight and focused and ready to reset the football universe.

MSU has seen the film. They know Bama is good but MSU has faced good. They think they can contain the run. Overall, I think they see Bama as being less dynamic than OSU, Oregon, Baylor.

They think they can stop what Bama does well and does the most, the inside zone. if they do that and they don’t give up the big pass plays on deep passes, then does Bama have the ability to mix in intermediate passing when necessary? MSu will take that challenge. MSU feels good about that challenge.

See the video below of Jon Reschke from a couple of weeks ago talking about Derrick Henry. I didn’t run this video on SpartanMag for good reason.

They’re loose, they’re confident. I’m not sure what that will add up to, but they think they can match up with these guys.

MSU is going to need to be error free in pass defense and special teams.

Cook’s arm is apparently pretty healthy and looked good, according to what Herbstreit said after watching a practice. (Not sure Dantonio is happy with that intel getting out).

Cook has said all week that he feels good. But that’s what he always says.

Cook threw ground balls vs Baylor early last year and vs Oregon. I would think he’s past that now.

Cook carried MSU at mid-season when injuries hurt MSu’s run game and defense. Then the run game and defense flourished late in the year when Cook was hurt.

MSU hasn’t played a game all year with the current run offense, and defense AND a healthy Cook. I’m not sure what it will look like. It might look like a championship.

I would lean toward picking Bama, at like 55 percent. Their ability to stuff the run and get a field position avalanche going will lead to some points here and there, but probably not a full-game blowout. I would be concerned about the deep pass being the difference, like it almost was against Iowa. And Bama has an edge at field goal kicker.

MSU could very well win this game. It would be an upset, but not the magnitude of upset that everyone is or would make it out to be.
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Do him and Rocky get paid by the word?

DWags wrote:Do him and Rocky get paid by the word?

I thought it was a WBH post

tl:dr

does Comp say Spartans win or not?

Thanks tTy.

Pretty much what most thought. MSU's margin for error is much smaller than Alabama's.

The biggest advantage MSU has is close game experience. If MSU is within 8 points in the closing minutes it's same shit different day.

If Alabama is in a close game it more of a Holy Shit panic.

Jesus fuck. It'll take me half the game to read all of that.