Re: tOfficial Electoral College Predictions Thread

[kingstonlake]

Michigan and Wisconsin have Republicans controlled supreme courts, right?  Have to win the election on Tuesday night. Beyond that anything can happen.

Nah, there are actual laws.  Regardless of what Trump says, votes are never even close to fully counted by election day.  Courts aren't going to just halt the counting on November 4th.  Comparisons to 2000 that people talk about tend ignore what actually happened that year.

And for GRR, Texas and Florida are most likely going to be irrelevant to the outcome, unless either does go Dem, at which point Trump would essentially have zero chance of pulling anything out.  But they're irrelevant in Biden's pursuit of 270.

But they're not back and white. Bring your interpretation of them to the supreme court (state or federal level). They will also interpret that law. Then they will make a decision based on the legitimacy of the arguents made. We'd all be rich if we had a nickel for every "law" that's been broken in the last four years that were a clearly defined violation of law or the Constitution just 12 short years ago. The legal system is more and more a political interpretation apparatus. I'll use Barret as an example. She wasn't nominated for her unbiased legal mind. She was nominated because of the way she personally interprets the Constitution. Many of those in direct opposition to settled law.

[Turtleneck]

Clinton lost the electoral college vote, Bob. There is more hedging in your post than MSU's botanical gardens.

Got it wrong, yet still pats himself on the back. Ludicrously poor self-evaluation.

John L. Smith says he is the winningest coach in MSU history.

[kingstonlake]

[Turtleneck]

Fire Up Chips!

[kingstonlake]

Fire Up Chips!

[MiamiSpartan]

Nah, there are actual laws.  Regardless of what Trump says, votes are never even close to fully counted by election day.  Courts aren't going to just halt the counting on November 4th.  Comparisons to 2000 that people talk about tend ignore what actually happened that year.

And for GRR, Texas and Florida are most likely going to be irrelevant to the outcome, unless either does go Dem, at which point Trump would essentially have zero chance of pulling anything out.  But they're irrelevant in Biden's pursuit of 270.

But they're not back and white. Bring your interpretation of them to the supreme court (state or federal level). They will also interpret that law. Then they will make a decision based on the legitimacy of the arguents made. We'd all be rich if we had a nickel for every "law" that's been broken in the last four years that were a clearly defined violation of law or the Constitution just 12 short years ago. The legal system is more and more a political interpretation apparatus. I'll use Barret as an example. She wasn't nominated for her unbiased legal mind. She was nominated because of the way she personally interprets the Constitution. Many of those in direct opposition to settled law.

Sure things like receiving ballots after election day is gray, but not the counting of ballots that arrive by election day. Theres nothing gray about that, as ballots have always been counted after election day in every election in every state for over 200 years. In Michigan, for instance, the county canvassing boards will begin meeting 11/5 (so already 2 days after the election) and they don't certify the results until 11/17.

[kingstonlake]

But they're not back and white. Bring your interpretation of them to the supreme court (state or federal level). They will also interpret that law. Then they will make a decision based on the legitimacy of the arguents made. We'd all be rich if we had a nickel for every "law" that's been broken in the last four years that were a clearly defined violation of law or the Constitution just 12 short years ago. The legal system is more and more a political interpretation apparatus. I'll use Barret as an example. She wasn't nominated for her unbiased legal mind. She was nominated because of the way she personally interprets the Constitution. Many of those in direct opposition to settled law.

Sure things like receiving ballots after election day is gray, but not the counting of ballots that arrive by election day. Theres nothing gray about that, as ballots have always been counted after election day in every election in every state for over 200 years. In Michigan, for instance, the county canvassing boards will begin meeting 11/5 (so already 2 days after the election) and they don't certify the results until 11/17.

I wonder how deep plans run to challenge votes. Signature matching, mailing address matching voting precincts, etc. I'd imagine the plan is to cast enough doubt on a small percentage of ballots to call into question all of them. I mean you literally had AG Barr say "you're playing with fire" in regards to mail in ballots. There's going to be a challenge.

[MiamiSpartan]

Sure things like receiving ballots after election day is gray, but not the counting of ballots that arrive by election day. Theres nothing gray about that, as ballots have always been counted after election day in every election in every state for over 200 years. In Michigan, for instance, the county canvassing boards will begin meeting 11/5 (so already 2 days after the election) and they don't certify the results until 11/17.

I wonder how deep plans run to challenge votes. Signature matching, mailing address matching voting precincts, etc. I'd imagine the plan is to cast enough doubt on a small percentage of ballots to call into question all of them. I mean you literally had AG Barr say "you're playing with fire" in regards to mail in ballots. There's going to be a challenge.

Oh yeah, there will definitely be challenges. And some may work. But they aren't going to be able to stop counting votes on November 4th, that's what I mean by the laws that are in place. And of course, votes counted on/before election day can also be challenged.

[Robert J Sakimano]

Clinton lost the electoral college vote, Bob. There is more hedging in your post than MSU's botanical gardens.

Got it wrong, yet still pats himself on the back. Ludicrously poor self-evaluation.

annoying, isnt it?

[Cameron]

Got it wrong, yet still pats himself on the back. Ludicrously poor self-evaluation.

annoying, isnt it?

Everything you do is annoying, Bob.

[steveschneider]

annoying, isnt it?

Everything you do is annoying, Bob.

I'm enjoying watching you move on from hating everything I say. I'm not enjoying watching you hate everything that Bob says. I've been saying it for years, take an anger management class and just learn how to chill out. It'll feel like a huge weight off of your spirit and you will soar to new heights.

[Turtleneck]

Shut up, Steve.

[kingstonlake]

You can flip Pennsylvania for me. Trump wins 280 - 258

[Robert J Sakimano]

annoying, isnt it?

Everything you do is annoying, Bob.

I'll send my family, friends and colleagues your condolences.

[Turtleneck]

Everything you do is annoying, Bob.

I'll send my family, friends and colleagues your condolences.

Bob, if you were on top of things, I guess that makes me brilliant. But I would disagree, since I was, you know, wrong.

I was wrong is also an enjoyable Social Distortion song if you’re into that sort of thing.

[Turtleneck]

Just to add, the Social Distortion song, as far as I can tell, is not about electoral college predictions on a message board. But I have been known to be wrong.

[kingstonlake]

Just to add, the Social Distortion song, as far as I can tell, is not about electoral college predictions on a message board. But I have been known to be wrong.

That song is in my all time top ten!

[Floyd Robertson]

Just to add, the Social Distortion song, as far as I can tell, is not about electoral college predictions on a message board. But I have been known to be wrong.

That song is in my all time top ten!

You must have a lot of SD songs in your top top 10 then.

[DWags]

Just to add, the Social Distortion song, as far as I can tell, is not about electoral college predictions on a message board. But I have been known to be wrong.

If you’re wrong, I don’t want to be right.

[WhiteBoyHatcher]

Kingston

[Robert J Sakimano]

I'll send my family, friends and colleagues your condolences.

Bob, if you were on top of things, I guess that makes me brilliant. But I would disagree, since I was, you know, wrong.

I was wrong is also an enjoyable Social Distortion song if you’re into that sort of thing.

love Social Distortion. Saw them most recently (few years back) with Lucero in Detroit. Sweet show.

[kingstonlake]

Kingston

PENNSYLVANIA

[steveschneider]

Cook Political Report moves Texas to a toss up. If Biden wins Texas I will plan my next vacation (when it's safe) to that fine state.

[Turtleneck]

My final prediction



I see a path to victory for Biden without winning Florida. I am not convinced that Florida goes for Biden, but again it is going to be critical to the outcome of the election. I think the Democrats take back what they lost in the midwest in 2016, and flip Iowa as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden picks up a vote in Nebraska via the state's 2nd congressional district.

None of this is all that great because it's a pretty mild rebuke of Trumpism. The only way this is enjoyable is if the country, in massive numbers, repudiates Trump and the current direction of the Republican party. Anything short of that and it's all still a mess...and the socialists are still coming for DWags' shoes.

[Floyd Robertson]

Flip NC/AZ to Blue, IA to Red that's what I think.

[Turtleneck]

Flip NC/AZ to Blue, IA to Red that's what I think.

I just can't do it. I wanted to, especially with NC. Even though the polls show it tight in Arizona, and I think the Democrats win the senate seat up for grabs there, I just feel like Trump sneaks it out again.

[InTenSity]

Buddy of mine went to go vote in Miami this morning. He said he just walked right in. No lines. I think a lot of people have already voted and I'm not sure how big the turnout is going to be.

Tiny tiny miniscule sample size, but if there isn't a huge turnout today in FL, that bodes well for Biden, or Trump. I don't know.

[Turtleneck]

Buddy of mine went to go vote in Miami this morning. He said he just walked right in. No lines. I think a lot of people have already voted and I'm not sure how big the turnout is going to be.

Tiny tiny miniscule sample size, but if there isn't a huge turnout today in FL, that bodes well for Biden, or Trump. I don't know.

I had no lines this morning. I expected otherwise, but walked in and voted with no wait.

[MiamiSpartan]

My final prediction



I see a path to victory for Biden without winning Florida. I am not convinced that Florida goes for Biden, but again it is going to be critical to the outcome of the election. I think the Democrats take back what they lost in the midwest in 2016, and flip Iowa as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden picks up a vote in Nebraska via the state's 2nd congressional district.

None of this is all that great because it's a pretty mild rebuke of Trumpism. The only way this is enjoyable is if the country, in massive numbers, repudiates Trump and the current direction of the Republican party. Anything short of that and it's all still a mess...and the socialists are still coming for DWags' shoes.

Biden has several paths without Florida, while Trump has virtually no realistic paths without Florida. Trump is done if he doesn't win it, but it wouldn't be a blow to Biden's chances if he lost it.

But also flipping a Georgia, or especially Texas, also kills any chance Trump has. It's interesting because there are a few states where if Trump loses just one of them, he's done. On the other hand, there's no single state that is remotely a battleground state, that would sink Biden on it's own.

[steveschneider]

I bet my friend a six pack that Biden wins and I spotted him +10 electoral college votes.

My final prediction



I see a path to victory for Biden without winning Florida. I am not convinced that Florida goes for Biden, but again it is going to be critical to the outcome of the election. I think the Democrats take back what they lost in the midwest in 2016, and flip Iowa as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden picks up a vote in Nebraska via the state's 2nd congressional district.

None of this is all that great because it's a pretty mild rebuke of Trumpism. The only way this is enjoyable is if the country, in massive numbers, repudiates Trump and the current direction of the Republican party. Anything short of that and it's all still a mess...and the socialists are still coming for DWags' shoes.

Not bad, I think Az, Georgia, NC flip blue and it's a coin flip for Ohio and Fl.

[WhiteBoyHatcher]

Current odds as of this morning for swing states (favorite). If you're not familiar with gambling lines, -200 would equate to 2:1, -300 3:1 etc.

AZ D -120
FL R -200
GA R -190
IA R -350
MI D -280
MN D -430
NV D -450
NH D -550
NC R -145
OH R -300
PA D -180
TX R -430
WI D -290

[GRR Spartan]

Kingston,

The long term concern is the Federal Judges and SCOTUS Associate Justices appointed pell mell in the last 42 months are going to be in position to adjudicate every challenge to Biden executive orders to overrule any and all of the 176+ Exceutive orders Trump has issued so far with god knows how many he will issue in the twight of his term should he be officially declared the loser of the November General election.

For example timber and mineral interests will challenge the rollback of Trump's Executive Order to allow logging in Allaska's previously protected Tongass National Forest with Trump appointed lower court judges hearing challenges and probably requiring appeals all the way to the corporation friendly SCOTUS. While the case is crawling through the legal system the logging companies will be cutting down as much as they can before a Biden administration can stop them.

[kingstonlake]

Bovada current

Biden -190
Trump +160

House
Dems -775
R's +450

Senate
Dem's -150
R's +115

[WhiteBoyHatcher]

Bovada current

Biden -190
Trump +160

House
Dems -775
R's +450

Senate
Dem's -150
R's +115

Biden was -165 when I posted the state odds above. At Bovada. I like that.

[Turtleneck]

Bovada current

Biden -190
Trump +160

House
Dems -775
R's +450

Senate
Dem's -150
R's +115

Stop posting sports on the politics board. Take your sports to the other board. We don't want to see it here.

[kingstonlake]

Bovada update

Biden -210
Trump +180

[kingstonlake]

-205 +175

[MiamiSpartan]

Don't the betting odds, and especially the changing of the odds, largely reflect betting that is being placed on them? Or is that just somewhat exaggerated when people say that (I'm not a sports gambler at all)?

[steveschneider]

Don't the betting odds, and especially the changing of the odds, largely reflect betting that is being placed on them? Or is that just somewhat exaggerated when people say that (I'm not a sports gambler at all)?

Yeah, call me crazy but I'm paying attention to 538 over Vegas.

[steveschneider]

Focus on Nate Silver not twitter folks.

This is encouraging numbers for FL

[tw]1323747268990828550?s=21[/tw]

I like Biden’s chances.

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