Can we talk about the supply chain for a moment?

Shortages are becoming more prevalent.  Groceries, prescription medicine, and dry goods have all been affected.  Cargo ships are stacked at port in both China and the U.S.  Shipping companies claim there aren’t enough transport workers.  Food costs are through the roof.  Retailers are starting to ration the sale of goods.  

During the first half of this year, many economic optimists assured us that the U.S. economy would be “booming” by this point.  Rather, our economic infrastructure is being shaken on a very basic level, and we are facing enormous price hikes and very painful shortages throughout the rest of this year and into next year.

The Vice President, herself, as much as told the public that holiday items may be scarce and to buy early.

Have events have begun to slide out of control?  Or is this just more media induced panic such as the Great Toilet Paper Panic of 2020?

Thoughts?

The statistics show that the amount of goods purchased in the US increased significantly during covid, while the spending on services dropped.  This is not going "back to normal" until covid is no longer a threat.  The logistics business, and other business is leery of adding capacity because of being unsure of what will happen when "back to normal" occurs.

Yes - do your Christmas shopping now.

I guess my point was that despite the reassurances from the administration and the media, it appears that things are going to get worse, not better, in the near future.

It’s not a matter of fixing one problem. A cascade of failures in raw materials, production, shipping, staffing, labor, and weather disasters has gummed up the supply chain with problems that may last for years.

Our society is wholly dependent upon an operational supply chain. The lives of billions of people depend on goods being transported around the world.

Yes, people hording toilet paper is annoying, but makes for some fun late night television comedy. Yes, everyone has heard about the "microchip" problem and it means you might have to hold off on purchasing that new F-150. But we're now seeing shortages in things that matter. Pharmaceuticals. Does your life depend on medication or healthcare? Can you survive without your meds for a week? A month? A year or more? Oh sure, it might be easy to mock the lazy lifestyle of the average American, and blame them for being dependent upon Lipitor or insulin. But what about penicillin or other medications that have brought us out of the dark ages? Those, too, are now becoming scarce.

It should go without saying that the disruption of the supply chain is also a tremendous threat to America’s economic health. The White House has acknowledged that experts forecast these shocks cost companies 42% of one year’s earnings every decade due to the recurring problem. So, you would think that there should be a solution already in place. One would think with this threat to the economy - especially after the PPE shortages at the onset of the COVID pandemic - a detailed plan would be implemented to address the areas of immediate need causing the greatest disruption. Addressing the labor shortage in the trucking industry would make tremendous strides toward alleviating much of the current crisis. But this type decisive action is just as lost as a cargo container waiting on a dock somewhere on the coast of Asia.

The average American is going to get hurt - badly - by this problem. It's not just going to be that your favorite restaurant is closed or that you can't find a Playstation for little Billy in December. Most people in the United States have lived their entire lives without ever having to be concerned about shortages. Just a year or two ago you could have things delivered to your door in two days or less. It would have seemed crazy to suggest that we were on the verge of widespread shortages here in the United States.

The problem is real, and it is a Private Enterprise problem.

Three words: Just In Time.  (or JIT)

For the last 30 years JIT (and the associated "right sizing" of production capacity) has been the defining value for all business, and it has worked very well at reducing costs for manufactured goods.  However, as it is now being experienced, it is not very good in markets where there has been a sudden increase in demand.

So the question that private businesses are asking themselves is, "Is this increase in demand temporary or permanent and how can we gain the most profit from the situation?".  Based on how they are answering that question different forms are taking different actions.  This is how the "free market" system works, and it is what most people believe in.

The answer to the first part of the question is strongly related to how people react to covid going forward.

The answer to the second part of the question is different for different firms.  Selling fewer goods at higher profits can often earn more profit than selling more goods at lower profits.

Since the Conservative Policies of semi Laissez-faire capitialisum have created effective monopoly like conditions in some markets, and in a monopoly fewer goods at higher prices often create higher overall profits there are multiple factors at play in how firms will react.

As to what the government can do about it, not much in the short term.  In the long term the creation of more competitive markets, which means, counterintuitively, much stronger regulation of the firms to create a true "free market" condition for the economy.  Many more firms supply the same goods so that it is much harder for the firms to control the markets.

As noted, this situation is unique, maybe the last time the US economy saw something remotely like this was at the end of WW2, when there was a sudden over supply of labor with an increase in demand at the same time.  At that time much of the labor was shunted aside into education via the GI Bill.  

This time there is an undersupply of labor, due to the "great reset" of people's personal expectations for their lives along with a rush to retirement by older workers.  Automation is part of the answer to that, however changes like take take time and cost profits in the short term.

So to answer your question directly, the belief that things will go back to normal depend mostly on how people react to all these factors and if the demand for goods drops back to what it was and the demand for services increase back to what it was.  

Personally I am not optimistic, however, I do not fault the experts who are predicting things will go there, nor the politicians who are saying and acting as though they will, as they have no history of this type of event to work with.  I also think that the proposed Infrastructure Bills, both the Bipartisan and the Reconciliation are the right policy for if the economy does not return to what it was, and/or if it does. (For why the latter, the addition of lower cost Child Care will cause some additional labor to reenter the labor market and thus push it closer to the mix of goods and services it had before)

I don't think it's as simple as "increased demand."

The US has 20 container ports located along the East and West coasts, as well the Gulf of Mexico. Ports are where 70% of all US-international trade enters, accounting for 26% of the GDP. An intricate system of rails, barges, and trucks transport the goods to factories, distribution centers, stores, and consumers. Trucking alone moves 71% of all this freight in America, requiring a functioning system of roads, highways, and bridges  in an aging infrastructure vulnerable to extreme weather events from climate change. Moving cargo by water is efficient. So clothing from Bangladesh, electronics from Taiwan, or consumer goods from China arrive at ports via cargo vessels. This summer, typhoons off the coast of China led to record costs of moving a 40 foot container from Asia. Shipping to the US East coast skyrocketed in the last year more than 500%. Rising costs added to the delays, as companies hoped to contract for better rates, or simply to find available space on a sailing vessel. Adding to those problems is a shortage of shipping containers which is expected to last well into 2022. The largest ships can carry more than 10,000 containers, and when things run smoothly, about 25 million are in use on some 6,000 ships sailing around the globe. But the supply chain disruptions are causing backlogs in transporting all this cargo. About 40% of all US container traffic flows through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Currently, there are 65 ships waiting to unload thousands of containers. It’s a complicated problem due mostly to a separate host of issues in the trucking industry. Hurricane Ida didn’t help matters, either. Barge traffic transporting goods on inland waterways have not fully recovered following the August storm. The Port of South Louisiana, the largest grain port in the US, handling more than 50% of the nation’s grain exports, sought federal assistance in recovery efforts following the devastation from Ida. While severe weather impacts the Gulf states, the trucking industry grapples with a shortage of workers. It’s not just drivers, either. Recovery is expected to take much longer, as the industry lost 1.52 million workers throughout the pandemic. Experts now forecast a shortage of 330,000 drivers through 2024.

We're dealing with the effects of industry consolidation, a worker "shortage," unusual consumer demand, a logistics nightmare, global climate change, outsourcing to overseas workers, willfully ignorant political leaders, hyperinflation, and a myriad of other issues.

Bredo Morstoel wrote:I don't think it's as simple as "increased demand."

The US has 20 container ports located along the East and West coasts, as well the Gulf of Mexico. Ports are where 70% of all US-international trade enters, accounting for 26% of the GDP. An intricate system of rails, barges, and trucks transport the goods to factories, distribution centers, stores, and consumers. Trucking alone moves 71% of all this freight in America, requiring a functioning system of roads, highways, and bridges  in an aging infrastructure vulnerable to extreme weather events from climate change. Moving cargo by water is efficient. So clothing from Bangladesh, electronics from Taiwan, or consumer goods from China arrive at ports via cargo vessels. This summer, typhoons off the coast of China led to record costs of moving a 40 foot container from Asia. Shipping to the US East coast skyrocketed in the last year more than 500%. Rising costs added to the delays, as companies hoped to contract for better rates, or simply to find available space on a sailing vessel. Adding to those problems is a shortage of shipping containers which is expected to last well into 2022. The largest ships can carry more than 10,000 containers, and when things run smoothly, about 25 million are in use on some 6,000 ships sailing around the globe. But the supply chain disruptions are causing backlogs in transporting all this cargo. About 40% of all US container traffic flows through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Currently, there are 65 ships waiting to unload thousands of containers. It’s a complicated problem due mostly to a separate host of issues in the trucking industry. Hurricane Ida didn’t help matters, either. Barge traffic transporting goods on inland waterways have not fully recovered following the August storm. The Port of South Louisiana, the largest grain port in the US, handling more than 50% of the nation’s grain exports, sought federal assistance in recovery efforts following the devastation from Ida. While severe weather impacts the Gulf states, the trucking industry grapples with a shortage of workers. It’s not just drivers, either. Recovery is expected to take much longer, as the industry lost 1.52 million workers throughout the pandemic. Experts now forecast a shortage of 330,000 drivers through 2024.

We're dealing with the effects of industry consolidation, a worker "shortage," unusual consumer demand, a logistics nightmare, global climate change, outsourcing to overseas workers, willfully ignorant political leaders, hyperinflation, and a myriad of other issues.

Well first, I agree, it isn't just increased demand.  All the factors you are listing play a part.  They are, however, all, or at least for the most part, private enterprise issues, not government policy issues. JIT has created a system where logistics are a critical path, and all factors which lower the logistics verses the supply or demand are now also critical.

Demand is the one factor that people discussing this don't see, which is why I pointed it out.

Here is a link to show how demand has been a major driver in the situation and why, going back to normal, meaning going back to pre-covid levels, would reduce the effects of all the factors you listed.

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1421451220137517060

I am afraid I have to disagree with you that these are private enterprise issues.

Setting aside larger issues such as free trade agreements and the laws that allow and/or make it advantageous for large scale offshoring of labor, there are immediate actions the administration could take to ease the problems being seen at the ports.

The International Chamber of Shipping yesterday issued a letter to the UN stating that unless governments restore freedom of movement to transport workers, and give them priority to receive vaccines recognized by the WHO, there will be a "global transport system collapse." The letter has also been signed by the International Air Transport Association, the International Road Transport Union, and the International Transport Workers' Federation. Together they represent 65 million transport workers globally.

Gene Seroka, the Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, said he has just started a new program called “Accelerate Cargo LA” and he’s asking for the Federal Reserve System to step in and help.

I know it's very trendy to blame the corporate oligarchs these days. Do you think oil executives are pleased that they can't sell petrol in the UK at the moment? Do you think the Waltons are rubbing their hands together in glee that their Super WalMart grocery store shelves are empty of certain products? FedEx Chief Operating Officer Raj Subramaniam said during an earnings call this week that there have been “widespread inefficiencies” in its operation due to “constrained labor markets,” which have ultimately forced the company to divert packages. There are more than 600,000 packages a day being rerouted across the entire FedEx Ground network, according to Subramaniam. Do you think that makes the wealthy who own FedEx stock happy? Is that all going to some 1% world domination reset for the lizard people? Of course not!

The administration is asleep at the wheel on this issue, and unless they wake up, it's going to get bad, and people will die.

I don't have thoughts, but would you like some prayers?

Bredo Morstoel wrote:I am afraid I have to disagree with you that these are private enterprise issues.

Setting aside larger issues such as free trade agreements and the laws that allow and/or make it advantageous for large scale offshoring of labor, there are immediate actions the administration could take to ease the problems being seen at the ports.

The International Chamber of Shipping yesterday issued a letter to the UN stating that unless governments restore freedom of movement to transport workers, and give them priority to receive vaccines recognized by the WHO, there will be a "global transport system collapse." The letter has also been signed by the International Air Transport Association, the International Road Transport Union, and the International Transport Workers' Federation. Together they represent 65 million transport workers globally.

Gene Seroka, the Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, said he has just started a new program called “Accelerate Cargo LA” and he’s asking for the Federal Reserve System to step in and help.

I know it's very trendy to blame the corporate oligarchs these days. Do you think oil executives are pleased that they can't sell petrol in the UK at the moment? Do you think the Waltons are rubbing their hands together in glee that their Super WalMart grocery store shelves are empty of certain products? FedEx Chief Operating Officer Raj Subramaniam said during an earnings call this week that there have been “widespread inefficiencies” in its operation due to “constrained labor markets,” which have ultimately forced the company to divert packages. There are more than 600,000 packages a day being rerouted across the entire FedEx Ground network, according to Subramaniam. Do you think that makes the wealthy who own FedEx stock happy? Is that all going to some 1% world domination reset for the lizard people? Of course not!

The administration is asleep at the wheel on this issue, and unless they wake up, it's going to get bad, and people will die.

Well first the amount of goods purchased have increased by 20% to 30% from prior to covid, which is a huge number, without talking about how they are shipped, and a huge increase in shipping containers if we are talking about how they are shipped.

Next, the operation of ports, and all shipping is a private business. Reading up on "Accelerate Cargo LA" it is all about actions taken by private companies to extend the hours of operation. Didn't see anything about an appeal for help to the Fed Bank so maybe you could enlighten us on what that is all about. As an aside the port director seems to be pretty pleased with the actions taken by the government. So not asleep at the wheel in that case.

https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2021/09/21/california-port-congestion-new-measures-to-speed-up-cargo-throughput-as-congestion-builds/

If private companies cannot hire workers at the wage they are offering the solution, according the people who believe in free markets, is to increase wages. Have they done that? If there are not "qualified" workers the private solution is to hire people and train them, are they doing that?

So other than saying covid protections are creating longer shipping times, in which government's must decide between fewer restrictions or public health, and most have found a middle ground between those competing "goods", this is still due to covid and not governments at all. Which is what I have said from the start about when things can get "back to normal". It is covid, not the governments which are causing the issues you are highlighting.

IMO your post appears to be focused on one "good", lower shipping times, but want to ignore another "good' public health. The balance between them due to covid is what is causing some of the issues, but more issues are being caused by a huge increase, probably over 30% in the US, in demand and shipping

That's an odd assertion, TrapperGus. Yes, some items are in greater demand, but others have lagged. To make a blanket "20-30%" claim is over simplifying things far too greatly.

And yes, obviously Covid was the trigger event. The question is what will resolve the issue? I don't believe we're going to be eliminating Covid anytime soon, so how does the supply chain fix itself? Will it just take time to unclog like a bad traffic jam on an interstate, or will it take government intervention? I have my opinions, but I'd be interested to hear yours.

Bredo Morstoel wrote:That's an odd assertion, TrapperGus.  Yes, some items are in greater demand, but others have lagged.  To make a blanket "20-30%" claim is over simplifying things far too greatly.

And yes, obviously Covid was the trigger event.  The question is what will resolve the issue?  I don't believe we're going to be eliminating Covid anytime soon, so how does the supply chain fix itself?  Will it just take time to unclog like a bad traffic jam on an interstate, or will it take government intervention?  I have my opinions, but I'd be interested to hear yours.

Open up the Krugman link.  He has a chart in it showing the increase, which is why I posted it.

As to what will unclog the issue, well for logistics, if the demand remains at these elevated levels eventually more parts of the logistic chain will hire more people and buy more equipment.

btw - one of the other causes within the covid situation which overloaded the supply chain was the increase in buying on line and having the purchases delivered.

Talking about somewhere in the supply chain where I agree that Biden could and should be doing something!

Today marks DeJoy's brilliant plan to slow down mail delivery—almost as good as removing mailboxes

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/10/1/2055473/-Today-marks-DeJoy-s-brilliant-plan-to-slow-down-mail-delivery-almost-as-good-as-removing-mailboxes

Bredo Morstoel wrote:That's an odd assertion, TrapperGus. Yes, some items are in greater demand, but others have lagged. To make a blanket "20-30%" claim is over simplifying things far too greatly.

And yes, obviously Covid was the trigger event. The question is what will resolve the issue? I don't believe we're going to be eliminating Covid anytime soon, so how does the supply chain fix itself? Will it just take time to unclog like a bad traffic jam on an interstate, or will it take government intervention? I have my opinions, but I'd be interested to hear yours.

I think I have been posting my opinions?

Are there other opinions you have that you have not expressed?

No, not really. I just find it very concerning that society is possibly heading towards some serious shortages of critical items, but I've already covered that.

We can probably wrap this one up, I guess. Good luck to you and yours moving forward.

Bredo Morstoel wrote:No, not really. I just find it very concerning that society is possibly heading towards some serious shortages of critical items, but I've already covered that.

We can probably wrap this one up, I guess. Good luck to you and yours moving forward.

Okay - I remain hopeful that regulated free markets will properly react. Peace.

You guys are much smarter than me.

Mainstream media now openly reporting on the topic.

Of course, this piece makes it seem like it's all BS nonessential consumers goods. Wait until they have to report on food or medicine shortages. That will amp up the public panic.

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

Mainstream media now openly reporting on the topic.

Of course, this piece makes it seem like it's all BS nonessential consumers goods. Wait until they have to report on food or medicine shortages. That will amp up the public panic.

Why are you rooting for panic?

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

Mainstream media now openly reporting on the topic.

Of course, this piece makes it seem like it's all BS nonessential consumers goods. Wait until they have to report on food or medicine shortages. That will amp up the public panic.

American consumers seek a safe, diverse, and abundant food supply that is simultaneously affordable and available throughout the year. To help meet these consumer demands, the United States imports about 15 percent of its overall food supply. Today more than 200 countries or territories and roughly 125,000 food facilities plus farms supply approximately 32 percent of the fresh vegetables, 55 percent of the fresh fruit, and 94 percent of the seafood that Americans consume annually.

https://www.fda.gov/food/importing-food-products-united-states/fda-strategy-safety-imported-food#:~:text=To%20help%20meet%20these%20consumer%20demands%2C%20the%20United,percent%20of%20the%20seafood%20that%20Americans%20consume%20annually.

https://classroom.synonym.com/list-of-foods-that-grow-in-mexico-12363490.html

Looking at the second article it looks like the big importing sources are Canada & Mexico, more likely issues with trucking than with sea shipping. The one outlier is seafood, from China.

Like nearly all countries in South America and North America, the United States is a net exporter of food, exporting $1.28 in food for every dollar it imports...

Sorry but the article is poorly proofread, it says "net importer" but the numbers show a "net exporter" so I corrected the mistake.

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2012/06/a_map_of_farmers_in_the_u_s_and_world_.html?query=Hillary%20Clinton,%20Donald%20Trump&view=histogram

TrapperGus wrote:

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

Mainstream media now openly reporting on the topic.

Of course, this piece makes it seem like it's all BS nonessential consumers goods. Wait until they have to report on food or medicine shortages. That will amp up the public panic.

American consumers seek a safe, diverse, and abundant food supply that is simultaneously affordable and available throughout the year. To help meet these consumer demands, the United States imports about 15 percent of its overall food supply. Today more than 200 countries or territories and roughly 125,000 food facilities plus farms supply approximately 32 percent of the fresh vegetables, 55 percent of the fresh fruit, and 94 percent of the seafood that Americans consume annually.

https://www.fda.gov/food/importing-food-products-united-states/fda-strategy-safety-imported-food#:~:text=To%20help%20meet%20these%20consumer%20demands%2C%20the%20United,percent%20of%20the%20seafood%20that%20Americans%20consume%20annually.

https://classroom.synonym.com/list-of-foods-that-grow-in-mexico-12363490.html

Looking at the second article it looks like the big importing sources are Canada & Mexico, more likely issues with trucking than with sea shipping. The one outlier is seafood, from China.

Like nearly all countries in South America and North America, the United States is a net exporter of food, exporting $1.28 in food for every dollar it imports...

Sorry but the article is poorly proofread, it says "net importer" but the numbers show a "net exporter" so I corrected the mistake.

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2012/06/a_map_of_farmers_in_the_u_s_and_world_.html?query=Hillary%20Clinton,%20Donald%20Trump&view=histogram

I guess all those empty shelves are figments of people's imaginations, then?

Nothing to see here, folks, Some Slate article from 2012 says we're all good. Play on.

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

American consumers seek a safe, diverse, and abundant food supply that is simultaneously affordable and available throughout the year. To help meet these consumer demands, the United States imports about 15 percent of its overall food supply. Today more than 200 countries or territories and roughly 125,000 food facilities plus farms supply approximately 32 percent of the fresh vegetables, 55 percent of the fresh fruit, and 94 percent of the seafood that Americans consume annually.

https://www.fda.gov/food/importing-food-products-united-states/fda-strategy-safety-imported-food#:~:text=To%20help%20meet%20these%20consumer%20demands%2C%20the%20United,percent%20of%20the%20seafood%20that%20Americans%20consume%20annually.

https://classroom.synonym.com/list-of-foods-that-grow-in-mexico-12363490.html

Looking at the second article it looks like the big importing sources are Canada & Mexico, more likely issues with trucking than with sea shipping. The one outlier is seafood, from China.

Like nearly all countries in South America and North America, the United States is a net exporter of food, exporting $1.28 in food for every dollar it imports...

Sorry but the article is poorly proofread, it says "net importer" but the numbers show a "net exporter" so I corrected the mistake.

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2012/06/a_map_of_farmers_in_the_u_s_and_world_.html?query=Hillary%20Clinton,%20Donald%20Trump&view=histogram

I guess all those empty shelves are figments of people's imaginations, then?

Nothing to see here, folks, Some Slate article from 2012 says we're all good. Play on.

All the empty shelves! Didn't see that many in the grocery store yesterday.

Seems like you have a narrative and want to see it play out.

NigelUno wrote:

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

I guess all those empty shelves are figments of people's imaginations, then?

Nothing to see here, folks, Some Slate article from 2012 says we're all good. Play on.

All the empty shelves! Didn't see that many in the grocery store yesterday.

Seems like you have a narrative and want to see it play out.

Oh, you didn't see that many? Further confirmation we have nothing to worry about. Nigel Uno says it's all good, folks.

No, I don't want to see any "narratives" play out. But to ignore the obvious is just ignorant.

The toilet paper shortage or hiccup vendor’s supply line was obvious at a local Meijer on Tuesday Oct 5.

90% of the shelves for toilet paper were empty. Had a some Meijer and Northern left in 24 “mega roll” packages and that was it.

I do think it’s panic buying because other items more specific to cleaning like disinfectant wipes were in supply with no limits.

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

All the empty shelves! Didn't see that many in the grocery store yesterday.

Seems like you have a narrative and want to see it play out.

Oh, you didn't see that many? Further confirmation we have nothing to worry about. Nigel Uno says it's all good, folks.

No, I don't want to see any "narratives" play out. But to ignore the obvious is just ignorant.

Am I supposed to imagine empty shelves? I mean...you're claiming they're obviously empty? Maybe I didn't go down the right aisles.

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

American consumers seek a safe, diverse, and abundant food supply that is simultaneously affordable and available throughout the year.  To help meet these consumer demands, the United States imports about 15 percent of its overall food supply. Today more than 200 countries or territories and roughly 125,000 food facilities plus farms supply approximately 32 percent of the fresh vegetables, 55 percent of the fresh fruit, and 94 percent of the seafood that Americans consume annually.

https://www.fda.gov/food/importing-food-products-united-states/fda-strategy-safety-imported-food#:~:text=To%20help%20meet%20these%20consumer%20demands%2C%20the%20United,percent%20of%20the%20seafood%20that%20Americans%20consume%20annually.

https://classroom.synonym.com/list-of-foods-that-grow-in-mexico-12363490.html

Looking at the second article it looks like the big importing sources are Canada & Mexico, more likely issues with trucking than with sea shipping.  The one outlier is seafood, from China.

Like nearly all countries in South America and North America, the United States is a net exporter of food, exporting $1.28 in food for every dollar it imports...

Sorry but the article is poorly proofread, it says "net importer" but the numbers show a "net exporter" so I corrected the mistake.

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2012/06/a_map_of_farmers_in_the_u_s_and_world_.html?query=Hillary%20Clinton,%20Donald%20Trump&view=histogram

I guess all those empty shelves are figments of people's imaginations, then?

Nothing to see here, folks,  Some Slate article from 2012 says we're all good.  Play on.

I'm just pointing out that in a country which is a net exporter of food that food security is a failing of the free markets internal to the country, and not some supply chain snafu reaching overseas.

I will point out what you have not acknowledged from my other posts, that the issue is a huge increase in demand, for which the trucks, boats and unloading capacity was not equipped to handle.

So the root cause of the issues are the huge increases in demand, not the supply chain. The experts who are telling you this is a supply chain issue are being disingenuous, they are not exactly incorrect but the supply chain is not the root cause of the issue.

GRR Spartan wrote:The toilet paper shortage or hiccup vendor’s supply line was obvious at a local Meijer on Tuesday Oct 5.

90% of the shelves for toilet paper were empty. Had a some Meijer and Northern left in 24 “mega roll” packages and that was it.

I do think it’s panic buying because other items more specific to cleaning like disinfectant wipes were in supply with no limits.

Had to look it up. Most of the TP in the US is made in the US & over 90% of the raw materials for TP is also from the US. About 10% of raw pulp stock is from overseas.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/america-is-choking-under-an-everything-shortage/620322/

Bredo Morstoel wrote:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/america-is-choking-under-an-everything-shortage/620322/

This is what is called a lets throw mud at that wall and see what sticks article. While there is some truth in it the author has taken every little grievance and tried to turn it into a crisis.

TrapperGus wrote:

Bredo Morstoel wrote:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/america-is-choking-under-an-everything-shortage/620322/

This is what is called a lets throw mud at that wall and see what sticks article. While there is some truth in it the author has taken every little grievance and tried to turn it into a crisis.

Are the saplings not also part of the forest?

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

This is what is called a lets throw mud at that wall and see what sticks article.  While there is some truth in it the author has taken every little grievance and tried to turn it into a crisis.

Are the saplings not also part of the forest?

I have yet to see honest comparisons between the before and after on product availability and the real causes of the issues, and it isn't one issue, there are many.  The "I went down to my local store and their were empty shelves" narratives are pure mudslinging.  Without some serious investigative reporting, which as of yet I haven't seen, these reports are useless.

As one example, the author noted they couldn't buy covid home tests, which has nothing to do with supply chain issues, the author was just throwing mud.

As another example, vehicle production, hampered by a shortage of IC's, is due to the car companies drastically cutting orders at the start of the pandemic, which caused the IC manufactures to shift that manufacturing to other products, which were exploding in demand.  When the car companies came back with higher orders the IC manufactures had committed the plants to other IC's, which btw they make a higher profit on, and the IC manufactures told the car companies they would have to wait in line.  This is not a supply chain issue, it is a manufacturing capacity issue caused by the huge increase in demand for products other than cars.

TrapperGus wrote:

Bredo Morstoel wrote:

Are the saplings not also part of the forest?

I have yet to see honest comparisons between the before and after on product availability and the real causes of the issues, and it isn't one issue, there are many. The "I went down to my local store and their were empty shelves" narratives are pure mudslinging. Without some serious investigative reporting, which as of yet I haven't seen, these reports are useless.

As one example, the author noted they couldn't buy covid home tests, which has nothing to do with supply chain issues, the author was just throwing mud.

And any paper towel shortages are most likely just the result of people hoarding paper towels.

Not to mention, people can survive without paper towels.

NigelUno wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

I have yet to see honest comparisons between the before and after on product availability and the real causes of the issues, and it isn't one issue, there are many.  The "I went down to my local store and their were empty shelves" narratives are pure mudslinging.  Without some serious investigative reporting, which as of yet I haven't seen, these reports are useless.

As one example, the author noted they couldn't buy covid home tests, which has nothing to do with supply chain issues, the author was just throwing mud.

And any paper towel shortages are most likely just the result of people hoarding paper towels.  

Not to mention, people can survive without paper towels.

I did the basic research on TP and found that it is mostly made in the US, so it isn't a port shipping holdup.  A quick search for where paper towels are made seems to be showing they are mostly made in the US also.

https://whocaresaboutcustomers.wordpress.com/2014/03/15/made-in-the-usa-paper-towels/

So you guys don't believe there are any shortages, or if there are, they are solely demand-based shortages and will be resolved within the free market by increased production?


Or do you just enjoy hitting things back over the net so much you'll argue any point?

Bredo Morstoel wrote:So you guys don't believe there are any shortages, or if there are, they are solely demand-based shortages and will be resolved within the free market by increased production?  


Or do you just enjoy hitting things back over the net so much you'll argue any point?

There is an imbalance between supply and demand right now.  As a product for which there is over supply right now in the US look a covid vaccines.  Of course no one is really pointing at all the products where there is over supply.

The reasons for the lack of supply for various products where there are shortages varies by product.  It is lazy or dishonest reporting to blame it all on "supply chain issues".

All of this is due to the economic shock of the pandemic combined with a lack of robustness for sudden demand changes built into the JIT systems of supply management. It could, just as easily and as lazily be blamed on poor planning and management by businesses,

Kinda funny if you look at each of the pics captured in the Tweet.

[tw]1447669826520948743[/tw]

Cameron wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:This is not a supply chain issue, it is a manufacturing capacity issue

Is a manufacturing capacity issue not also a supply chain issue? "That's not a rectangle, it's a square."

If you follow that the trail of that argument long enough then not ordering material 5 years ago is a "supply chain" issue.

Or another way to say that, the people who want the new cars didn't buy them when they were on the lots...

The processing of material in a factory is a manufacturing issue, not a supply chain issue.

I'm sticking with the supply chain being the movement of material from point A to point B, meaning the shipping of material.

Some of these issues are due to a huge increase in demand, some are not.  Root cause for the ones where demand increase is the issue are demand issues, not supply chain issues, the supply chain in these is a bottleneck due to sudden demand.

All of it then comes back to running everything with JIT means there is no robustness to sudden changes in demand.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-los-angeles-health-48ff262b882a37308e4a3f15934b2ee4

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House said Wednesday it has helped broker an agreement for the Port of Los Angeles to become a 24-hour, seven-days-a-week operation, part of an effort to relieve supply chain bottlenecks and move stranded container ships that are driving prices higher for U.S. consumers.

Ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, account for 40% of all shipping containers entering the United States.

TrapperGus wrote:https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-los-angeles-health-48ff262b882a37308e4a3f15934b2ee4

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House said Wednesday it has helped broker an agreement for the Port of Los Angeles to become a 24-hour, seven-days-a-week operation, part of an effort to relieve supply chain bottlenecks and move stranded container ships that are driving prices higher for U.S. consumers.

Ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, account for 40% of all shipping containers entering the United States.

Awesome. Fredo can get his paper towels now.

NigelUno wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-los-angeles-health-48ff262b882a37308e4a3f15934b2ee4

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House said Wednesday it has helped broker an agreement for the Port of Los Angeles to become a 24-hour, seven-days-a-week operation, part of an effort to relieve supply chain bottlenecks and move stranded container ships that are driving prices higher for U.S. consumers.

Ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, account for 40% of all shipping containers entering the United States.

Awesome. Fredo can get his paper towels now.

LOL