US Price Inflation Year-to-Year Prediction - Reset after Mid-Term - December 2022 Title Update

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-01-24, 09:55

Just for fun ...

Looking at inflation (CPI) for the past year I expect that between January 2022 and June 2022, if there are no unexpected events like Russia invading Ukraine, that year-to-year CPI numbers will drop back down into the 2% to 3% range, and between October to December 2022 they will drop into the 1% to 2% range.

Putting this on this board as a marker.

We will see ...

by **DWags** 2022-01-24, 10:13

Ten bucks on the over.

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-01-24, 10:28

I'm going to have to define what the word "range means to me for betting purposes ...

Range is the 1 sigma number - about 70% of the time

So, sigma is 0.5%

3 sigma is around 99% then is then 1.5% (1% to 4% - June / ( -0.5% to 3% - December)

So not as bold a prediction as it seems I guess ...

Still, I would be somewhat surprised to see it at 4% June or 3% December .... we had a one-time year-to-year increase last spring, partly due to very low rates in 2020, which flattened pretty much to zero in the summer and then another increase in the fall.

btw - I never bet on the internet, or anywhere else but my 401k .... other than pride and reputation that is .... so, this is a bet on those.

Your 10 bucks will be strictly imaginary.

by **kingstonlake** 2022-01-24, 11:09

Trapper, I don’t understand your obsession with try to tell us how Trumps economy isn’t really that bad.

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-01-24, 12:00

Well, in many ways in the first three years it wasn't.

He wasn't doing much to help the economy, but he didn't do anything too stupid, either, well the flip on China and other US first moves should have been more gradual and more measured, but at least as far as China it was the right idea.

He totally jumped the shark in his fourth year, but as he was an incompetent nincompoop that wasn't much of a surprise. As long as he didn't have to deal with a crisis and could just tinker around the edges of what Obama had done, he did okay, once one showed up, he sank beneath the waves.

This isn't really a thread about that.

This is strictly a thread about the math involved in the year-to-year CPI numbers.

by **kingstonlake** 2022-01-24, 13:28

Trapper Gus wrote:Well, in many ways in the first three years it wasn't.

He wasn't doing much to help the economy, but he didn't do anything too stupid, either, well the flip on China and other US first moves should have been more gradual and more measured, but at least as far as China it was the right idea.

He totally jumped the shark in his fourth year, but as he was an incompetent nincompoop that wasn't much of a surprise. As long as he didn't have to deal with a crisis and could just tinker around the edges of what Obama had done, he did okay, once one showed up, he sank beneath the waves.

This isn't really a thread about that.

This is strictly a thread about the math involved in the year-to-year CPI numbers.

Well we live in 2022, not 2017 anymore. Ask any economist what he thinks about cutting taxes (personal or corporate) in a strong economy. Or take a trip to the grocery store, dealership, rent a hotel for a week, buy a house, rent a house, or buy some lumber. .

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-01-24, 18:02

kingstonlake wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:Well, in many ways in the first three years it wasn't.

He wasn't doing much to help the economy, but he didn't do anything too stupid, either, well the flip on China and other US first moves should have been more gradual and more measured, but at least as far as China it was the right idea.

He totally jumped the shark in his fourth year, but as he was an incompetent nincompoop that wasn't much of a surprise. As long as he didn't have to deal with a crisis and could just tinker around the edges of what Obama had done, he did okay, once one showed up, he sank beneath the waves.

This isn't really a thread about that.

This is strictly a thread about the math involved in the year-to-year CPI numbers.

Well we live in 2022, not 2017 anymore. Ask any economist what he thinks about cutting taxes (personal or corporate) in a strong economy. Or take a trip to the grocery store, dealership, rent a hotel for a week, buy a house, rent a house, or buy some lumber. .

The economists said in 2017 that cutting taxes wasn't needed and that the tax cut would boost the economy.

Turns out they were half right. There wasn't much of an economic boost.

The economists will (and are) telling us now that the rising prices are because of a huge increase in demand. They say this is partly because the Millennial generation is finally buying stuff, houses muchly, and partly because business guessed wrong in 2020 and cut back way too much. There are some supply factors, such as the oil producers trying to rack in bucks instead of suppling what the market needs, and some poor crops and farmers not getting the loans needed to increase output, those are more on the edges ...

by **Motown Spartan** 2022-02-10, 08:53

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-02-10, 09:01

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-02-10, 09:29

Right where it should be.

Prices went up last year in March - April - May - June. In January the year-to-year was at 1.36%. By June it had reached 5.34%. So, an increase in prices of ~ 4%. It stayed there, flat month to month until is started climbing in October. It has climbed from 5.34% to 7.5%. So, another increase in prices of ~2.2%.

Since the 4% was over the four months leading up to June, by June that number will no longer be counted, and the year-to-year headline inflation number will drop by 4%. Since the year-to-year is now at 7.5%, if there was no further inflation the year-to-year would drop to about 3.5% by June. Since there will be an underlying inflation rate of between 2% to 3% the number in June is likely to be in the 5% range. Higher than I originally thought, and I guess we will see what happens.

Of course, all bets are off if there is a global crisis such as a shooting war in Ukraine.

by RQA 2022-02-10, 15:25

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-price-index-cpi-inflation-january-2022-210344769.html

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday morning registered a 7.5% annual gain in January. Consensus economists were looking for a 7.3% rise, according to Bloomberg data. This represented the fastest rise since 1982, as well as an acceleration from the 7.0% year-over-year increase seen in December.

by **kingstonlake** 2022-02-10, 15:45

Trapper Gus wrote:Right where it should be.

Prices went up last year in March - April - May - June. In January the year-to-year was at 1.36%. By June it had reached 5.34%. So, an increase in prices of ~ 4%. It stayed there, flat month to month until is started climbing in October. It has climbed from 5.34% to 7.5%. So, another increase in prices of ~2.2%.

Since the 4% was over the four months leading up to June, by June that number will no longer be counted, and the year-to-year headline inflation number will drop by 4%. Since the year-to-year is now at 7.5%, if there was no further inflation the year-to-year would drop to about 3.5% by June. Since there will be an underlying inflation rate of between 2% to 3% the number in June is likely to be in the 5% range. Higher than I originally thought, and I guess we will see what happens.

Of course, all bets are off if there is a global crisis such as a shooting war in Ukraine.

Can I let the cashier at Meijer know that and have her take 4% off my total? I mean we're not counting it anymore, right?

by **Nordic** 2022-02-10, 17:35

Trapper Gus wrote:Just for fun ...

Looking at inflation (CPI) for the past year I expect that between January 2022 and June 2022, if there are no unexpected events like Russia invading Ukraine, that year-to-year CPI numbers will drop back down into the 2% to 3% range, and between October to December 2022 they will drop into the 1% to 2% range.

Putting this on this board as a marker.

We will see ...

How? You ain't putting 30% labor increases and 20%+ raw material increases back in the bottle.

Edit: I'm not a CPA and have no idea how CPI is calculated (inputs, lag, etc.). But we are still seeing increases and in turn passing them on to our customers. I do think this will slow, but the damage from the cumulative effect has been done
And in many cases haven't been passed onto the customer yet.

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-02-10, 17:53

Nordic wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:Just for fun ...

Looking at inflation (CPI) for the past year I expect that between January 2022 and June 2022, if there are no unexpected events like Russia invading Ukraine, that year-to-year CPI numbers will drop back down into the 2% to 3% range, and between October to December 2022 they will drop into the 1% to 2% range.

Putting this on this board as a marker.

We will see ...

How? You ain't putting 30% labor increases and 20%+ raw material increases back in the bottle.

Edit: I'm not a CPA and have no idea how CPI is calculated (inputs, lag, etc.). But we are still seeing increases and in turn passing them on to our customers. I do think this will slow, but the damage from the cumulative effect has been done
And in many cases haven't been passed onto the customer yet.

Prices don't need to fall for the year-to-year inflation number to drop. They just need to not rise as fast as they did last year. One of the reasons the year-to-year went up so much is that prices rose slowly the year before, thus we are seeing two years' work of cost increases in the number.

edit - I'm thinking you are overstating the increases in materials and labor. The price in materials defiantly can fall as quickly as it rises. Labor prices are "sticky" that is true. Prices would fall if demand fell. The increase in demand is what allowed businesses to start making larger profits during the last year.

by **Nordic** 2022-02-10, 19:02

Trapper Gus wrote:
Nordic wrote:

How? You ain't putting 30% labor increases and 20%+ raw material increases back in the bottle.

Edit: I'm not a CPA and have no idea how CPI is calculated (inputs, lag, etc.). But we are still seeing increases and in turn passing them on to our customers. I do think this will slow, but the damage from the cumulative effect has been done
And in many cases haven't been passed onto the customer yet.

Prices don't need to fall for the year-to-year inflation number to drop. They just need to not rise as fast as they did last year. One of the reasons the year-to-year went up so much is that prices rose slowly the year before, thus we are seeing two years' work of price increases in the number.

Yeah, like I said, I don't know how CPI is calculated. We are at the tailend (hopefully) of the largest price increases I've seen in 25+ years in my business. To say it is going to level off is not really saying much. And I would guess it will be 6-12 months before it returns to normal (whatever that is). Price increases are still working up through tier 2/3s to tier 1s to OEs and eventually consumers.

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-02-10, 19:15

Nordic wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

Prices don't need to fall for the year-to-year inflation number to drop. They just need to not rise as fast as they did last year. One of the reasons the year-to-year went up so much is that prices rose slowly the year before, thus we are seeing two years' work of price increases in the number.

Yeah, like I said, I don't know how CPI is calculated. We are at the tailend (hopefully) of the largest price increases I've seen in 25+ years in my business. To say it is going to level off is not really saying much. And I would guess it will be 6-12 months before it returns to normal (whatever that is). Price increases are still working up through tier 2/3s to tier 1s to OEs and eventually consumers.

United States Corporate Profits. Corporate profits in the United States jumped 9.7 percent to a record high of USD 2.42 trillion in the second quarter of 2021, following a 4.5 percent rise in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. Undistributed profits climbed 19.2 percent to USD 1.01 trillion and net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment, the internal funds available to corporations for investment, surged 7.2 percent to USD 3.06 trillion.

As the death toll from the pandemic continued to mount, US corporations enjoyed the widest profit margins in more than 70 years during the second and third quarters of 2021.

US corporate profits before adjustments rose to a record high of $3.14 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter of 2021. After tax and adjustments for inventory, profits rose to a record high $2.74 trillion, according to the most recent figures reported by the US Commerce Department.

I hear what you are saying, however, if costs were the driving factor, we wouldn't be seeing record profits.

by AvgMSUJoe 2022-02-10, 19:38

RQA wrote:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-price-index-cpi-inflation-january-2022-210344769.html

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday morning registered a 7.5% annual gain in January. Consensus economists were looking for a 7.3% rise, according to Bloomberg data. This represented the fastest rise since 1982, as well as an acceleration from the 7.0% year-over-year increase seen in December.

and....?

by **Nordic** 2022-02-10, 20:29

Trapper Gus wrote:
Nordic wrote:

Yeah, like I said, I don't know how CPI is calculated. We are at the tailend (hopefully) of the largest price increases I've seen in 25+ years in my business. To say it is going to level off is not really saying much. And I would guess it will be 6-12 months before it returns to normal (whatever that is). Price increases are still working up through tier 2/3s to tier 1s to OEs and eventually consumers.

United States Corporate Profits. Corporate profits in the United States jumped 9.7 percent to a record high of USD 2.42 trillion in the second quarter of 2021, following a 4.5 percent rise in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. Undistributed profits climbed 19.2 percent to USD 1.01 trillion and net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment, the internal funds available to corporations for investment, surged 7.2 percent to USD 3.06 trillion.

As the death toll from the pandemic continued to mount, US corporations enjoyed the widest profit margins in more than 70 years during the second and third quarters of 2021.

US corporate profits before adjustments rose to a record high of $3.14 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter of 2021. After tax and adjustments for inventory, profits rose to a record high $2.74 trillion, according to the most recent figures reported by the US Commerce Department.

I hear what you are saying, however, if costs were the driving factor, we wouldn't be seeing record profits.

I don't know why profits are up. Shooting from the hip, I would say demand and consumer spending are up. People have money, nothing to do, so they are buying shit. Whether its moar shit from Amazon (guilty as charged) or houses. The port delays are partially covid/labor/trucking related and partialy because Travis keeps installing more LED lights in his pit

Whatever the reason is, I don't know. I can tell you from firsthand experience costs are up. Companies can't absorb all the increases and stay in business.

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-02-10, 20:42

Nordic wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

United States Corporate Profits. Corporate profits in the United States jumped 9.7 percent to a record high of USD 2.42 trillion in the second quarter of 2021, following a 4.5 percent rise in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. Undistributed profits climbed 19.2 percent to USD 1.01 trillion and net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment, the internal funds available to corporations for investment, surged 7.2 percent to USD 3.06 trillion.

As the death toll from the pandemic continued to mount, US corporations enjoyed the widest profit margins in more than 70 years during the second and third quarters of 2021.

US corporate profits before adjustments rose to a record high of $3.14 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter of 2021. After tax and adjustments for inventory, profits rose to a record high $2.74 trillion, according to the most recent figures reported by the US Commerce Department.

I hear what you are saying, however, if costs were the driving factor, we wouldn't be seeing record profits.

I don't know why profits are up. Shooting from the hip, I would say demand and consumer spending are up. People have money, nothing to do, so they are buying shit. Whether its moar shit from Amazon (guilty as charged) or houses. The port delays are partially covid/labor/trucking related and partialy because Travis keeps installing more LED lights in his pit

Whatever the reason is, I don't know. I can tell you from firsthand experience costs are up. Companies can't absorb all the increases and stay in business.

I'm guessing your suppliers are corporations, or the suppliers of your suppliers are ...

Yes, the corporations raised their prices because demand increased and because there is no penalty to them for raising prices just for higher profits.

by RQA 2022-02-13, 17:19

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/pelosi-inflation-low-unemployment-manchin-not-right-bbb

Nancy blaming inflation on the fact the people have jobs. US Price Inflation Year-to-Year Prediction - Reset after Mid-Term - December 2022 Title Update 2803167989

US Price Inflation Year-to-Year Prediction - Reset after Mid-Term - December 2022 Title Update 2803167989

by AvgMSUJoe 2022-02-13, 17:42

RQA wrote:https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/pelosi-inflation-low-unemployment-manchin-not-right-bbb

Nancy blaming inflation on the fact the people have jobs.

Pelosi touted the COMPETES Act, which passed the House earlier this month by a 222-210 largely partisan vote and addressed supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. The bill includes a $52 billion "chips" fund to bring semiconductor fabrication back to the U.S. and a $45 billion investment to ensure critical goods are made in the U.S. rather than relying on China.

Ok. Why are you giggling?

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-02-14, 08:02

https://www.axios.com/steel-prices-hit-lowest-level-year-922ee741-78fd-4b5f-9c7c-89ecbdf2b05b.html

The price of rolled steel is falling

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-03-01, 09:20

Trapper Gus wrote:Just for fun ...

Looking at inflation (CPI) for the past year I expect that between January 2022 and June 2022, if there are no unexpected events like Russia invading Ukraine, that year-to-year CPI numbers will drop back down into the 2% to 3% range, and between October to December 2022 they will drop into the 1% to 2% range.

Putting this on this board as a marker.

We will see ...

All predictions on inflation are wastepaper, now, with the invasion of Ukraine.

by spartanwill 2022-03-01, 12:13

Trapper Gus wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:Just for fun ...

Looking at inflation (CPI) for the past year I expect that between January 2022 and June 2022, if there are no unexpected events like Russia invading Ukraine, that year-to-year CPI numbers will drop back down into the 2% to 3% range, and between October to December 2022 they will drop into the 1% to 2% range.

Putting this on this board as a marker.

We will see ...

All predictions on inflation are wastepaper, now, with the invasion of Ukraine.

Public Service Announcement: US Treasury Direct is selling US Savings I-Bonds which adjust for inflation on October 1 and April 1. Currently yielding 7.12% Some limitations apply but you can actually get your tax refund in an I-Bond up to 5K. Great for cash laying around in savings account and minimal penalty if withdrawn after 1 year and no penalty after 5 years. Invest in America "Build Back Bestest"

by **Floyd Robertson** 2022-03-10, 09:11

Interesting rates of inflation in some categories, many of which don't hit most people every year (suits, furniture, appliances).

[tw]1501918306005135362[/tw]

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-03-10, 09:30

LBS Press Release wrote:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

LBS CPI Press Release

Because the year-to-year CPI has become distorted due to the fluctuations in the economy from covid, the month to month numbers also should be examined.

At 0.8% from January to February if multiplied by 12 the rate would be 9.6%

Taking the addition of the month-to-month for the last 12 months the rate would be about 7.65%

Looking at all items less food and energy, a fav for economists to do, the month-to-month is 0.5% from January to February, if multiplied by 12 the rate would be 6%

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-03-11, 08:19

Axios wrote:One tiny ray of light for consumers in Thursday's inflation report was a 0.2% dip in used vehicle prices in February, compared to the prior month.

State of play:

A forward-looking gauge of wholesale used car prices also declined roughly 2% in February.

The big picture: The Consumer Price Index showed headline prices up 7.9% compared to the prior year, the fastest increase since 1982.

Used cars and trucks were a major driver of last year's sky-high inflation, as disruptions to auto-making — yes, it's supply chains again — kept new cars from making it onto lots.

Frustrated buyers turned to used cars instead, driving up demand. The surge in used vehicle prices over the last year is still an eye-watering 41.2%.

Yes, but: While the February dip signals that bottlenecks may have been thawing, the supply chain could always seize up again as a result of the war in Ukraine, which has upended global commodity markets.

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-03-15, 23:00

Data wrote:The Producer Price Index (PPI), showed prices at the wholesale level in February rose 0.8% month-over-month (m/m), below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a 0.9% gain, and south of January's unrevised 1.0% increase. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, gained 0.2% m/m, below estimates of a 0.6% rise and below the prior month's unadjusted 0.8% rise. Y/Y, the headline rate was 10.0% higher, just above the prior month's 9.7% rise, and right in line with expectations. The core PPI increased 8.4% y/y last month, below estimates of 8.7% and slightly above January's 8.3%.

by RQA 2022-04-05, 17:29

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/04/05/grocery-food-prices-inflation/9468067002/

"Pretty soon, you'll be paying even more for just about everything when it comes to eating in or dining out, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

"All food prices are now predicted to increase," the USDA's Food Prices Outlook for 2022 March report said.

The increases are the highest in decades as grocery prices got more expensive and are up nearly 9% for the year."

by **NigelUno** 2022-04-05, 18:34

RQA wrote:https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/04/05/grocery-food-prices-inflation/9468067002/

"Pretty soon, you'll be paying even more for just about everything when it comes to eating in or dining out, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

"All food prices are now predicted to increase," the USDA's Food Prices Outlook for 2022 March report said.

The increases are the highest in decades as grocery prices got more expensive and are up nearly 9% for the year."

Which grocery store stock do you own?

by RQA 2022-04-05, 23:21

NigelUno wrote:

Which grocery store stock do you own?

AMZN

by RQA 2022-04-06, 08:52

San Francisco Fed study proves Biden owns US inflation

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2022-07.pdf

by **NigelUno** 2022-04-06, 08:57

RQA wrote:San Francisco Fed study proves Biden owns US inflation

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2022-07.pdf

What impact do higher gas prices (which you celebrate) have on any sector which involves transportation of goods?

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-04-06, 09:07

RQA wrote:San Francisco Fed study proves Biden owns US inflation

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2022-07.pdf

No, it doesn't.

However, I gave you an up vote for linking to the actual study verses linking to some media site hyping a point of view.

by AvgMSUJoe 2022-04-06, 13:12

RQA wrote:San Francisco Fed study proves Biden owns US inflation

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2022-07.pdf

Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic’s economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation

Huh... looks like Trump is more to blame....(if your "blaming" the feds for not allowing the collapse of the economy)

https://www.investopedia.com/government-stimulus-efforts-to-fight-the-covid-19-crisis-4799723

Of course this doesn't slot into your skewed version of reality where a D MUST be the problem...

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-04-07, 07:46

After months of moving gingerly to withdraw monetary stimulus, the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign now looks set to enter a rapid new phase.

That's the conclusion to draw from new minutes the central bank released Wednesday that spell out the Fed's plans. It aims to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet nearly twice as fast as it did the last time it undertook "quantitative tightening" — while simultaneously raising short-term interest rates more quickly.

The Fed is saying to all the corporations who are screwing us by raising prices to reap huge profits, "Oh no you don't, no more stock buy backs funded by the purchase of your bonds for you!".

What the Fed is Doing

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-04-12, 10:04

The month to month core inflation, March to April, came in at 0.3%. (Yes it is really Feb to March but this is how everyone reports it)

If that would hold for the next year the core inflation for the year would be 3.6%

The year to year core inflation was 6.5%, below expectations, most of that was in May/June/July & November/December/January

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-04-14, 08:07

Axios wrote:In an interview with Axios, CEA Chair Cecilia Rouse noted that private economists have a wide range of estimates of how much of a role the ARP played. (A San Francisco Fed study put the contribution at around 0.3% of 2021 inflation, while other economists' estimates are higher, in the 2 to 3 percentage point range).

The White House economists also argue that the Biden administration's fiscal actions helped fuel a more robust recovery in growth and jobs, making the American economy better able to weather the challenges ahead.

U.S. GDP was 3% above its pre-pandemic level in the fourth quarter, by the CEA's calculations, but had shown no gain in Canada, the Eurozone, or Britain.

The economists who have the president's ear see robust economic activity as the most important legacy of the pandemic aid spending, and inflation as a secondary effect.

https://www.axios.com/biden-economists-inflation-growth-stimulus-288d6163-4438-4880-a71c-39ded77cccac.html

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-04-23, 09:33

So the Fed's plan is to raise the costs for businesses to do business by raising the cost to borrow money and cutting back its bond purchases.

Not seeing how that relieves what is a supply side problem where businesses say they cannot meet demand and are raising prices to get windfall profits.

Also the Fed thinks low employment, where businesses can no longer pay slave wages to low wage workers is a problem. ???

Seems to me the Fed has it all backward. Busnesses not investing and increasing supply is the basic problem.

by **Trapper Gus** 2022-04-23, 13:05

Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the [non-financial corporate] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8% price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019,” EPI’s Josh Bivens writes. “Strikingly, over half of this increase (53.9%) can be attributed to fatter profit margins, with labor costs contributing less than 8% of this increase. This is not normal. From 1979 to 2019, profits only contributed about 11% to price growth and labor costs over 60%.”

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/4/22/2093390/-When-you-talk-about-inflation-definitely-talk-about-corporate-profits

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