tSwill's Comprehensive Monday Morning Breakdown for the Big Ten Battle for Places 2-11 (with Remaining Schedule Difficulty)

(Copyright tSwill 2023)

(1.  12-4 Purdue )

2. 10-5 Northwestern  H4 Pur, IU, Iowa, PSU / A4 OSU, ILL, MD, RU
3. 10-6 Indiana  H4 RU, ILL, Iowa, UM / A4 UM,NW, MSU, Pur    
4. 9-6 Maryland  H4 PSU, Pur, Minn, NW / A4 MSU, Neb, OSU, PSU  
4. 9-6 Iowa  H3 OSU, MSU, Neb / A5 Pur, Minn, NW, Wis, IU
6. 9-7 Rutgers  H3 Neb, UM, NW / A5 IU, ILL, Wis, PSU, Minn   
6. 9-7 UM  H4 Neb, IU, MSU, Wis / A4 Wis, RU, ILL, IU  
8. 8-7 Illinois  H4 RU, Minn, NW, UM / A4 PSU, IU, OSU, Pur  
8. 8-7 MSU  H4 MD, Minn, IU, OSU / A4 OSU, UM, Iowa, Neb  
10. 7-9 Wisconsin  H4 UM, RU, Iowa, Pur / A4 PSU, Neb, UM, Minn
10. 7-9 Penn State  H4 Wis, ILL, RU, MD / A4 MD, Minn, OSU, NW


Toughest Home Schedule by Opponent's (Big Ten) records:
Wisconsin  33-16
Northwestern 30-19
Indiana  29-19
Penn State  27-21
Rutgers  18-19
Maryland  24-25
Illinois  23-25
Michigan  22-27
MSU  18-29
Iowa  13-23

Toughest Road Schedule:
Indiana  31-18
Michigan  27-21
Illinois  26-22
Northwestern 25-22
Iowa  31-30
MSU  21-27
Rutgers  25-35
Penn State  18-29
Maryland  18-30
Wisconsin  17-32

Toughest Overall Schedule:
Indiana  60-37
Northwestern  55-41
Illinois  49-47
Wisconsin  50-48
Michigan  49-48
Penn State  45-50
Rutgers  43-54
Iowa  44-53
Maryland  42-55
MSU  39-56

Nigel is bringing it strong. Good stuff.

We're currently in 9th, but a game out of (a tie for) 3rd.

Sure looks like we have a decent path to finish in the top 4. Gotta win on Tuesday to get it going.

2 (of the contending) teams have played Purdue twice already. MSU and Penn State.

1 team has played both Purdue and Rutgers twice already MSU.

NigelUno wrote:(Copyright tSwill 2023)

8-4 Rutgers  H3 Neb, UM, NW / A5 IU, ILL, Wis, PSU, Minn
7-5 Illinois  H4 Minn, RU, NW, UM / A4 PSU, IU, OSU, Pur
7-5 Indiana  H4 RU, ILL, Iowa, UM / A4 UM, NW, MSU, Pur
7-5 Maryland  H4 PSU, Pur, Minn, NW / A4 MSU, Neb, OSU, PSU
7-5 Northwestern  H3 IU, Iowa, PSU / A5 OSU, Pur, ILL, MD, RU
7-5 Iowa  H3 OSU, MSU, Neb / A5 Pur, Minn, NW, Wis, IU
7-5 UM  H4 Neb, IU, MSU, Wis / A4 Wis, RU, ILL, IU
6-6 MSU  H4 MD, Minn, IU, OSU / A4 OSU, UM, Iowa, Neb
5-7 Penn State  H4 Wis, ILL, RU, MD / A4 MD, Minn, OSU, NW
5-7 Wisconsin  H4 UM, RU, Iowa, Pur / A4 PSU, Neb, UM, Minn

Toughest Home Schedule by Opponent's (Big Ten) records:
Wisconsin  33-16
Indiana  29-19
Penn State  27-21
Northwestern  19-17
Rutgers  18-19
Maryland  24-25
Illinois  23-25
Michigan  22-27
MSU  18-29
Iowa  13-23

Toughest Road Schedule:
Indiana  31-18
Northwestern  36-24
Michigan  27-21
Illinois  26-22
Iowa  31-30
MSU  21-27
Rutgers  25-35
Penn State  18-29
Maryland  18-30
Wisconsin  17-32

Toughest Overall Schedule:
Indiana  60-37
Northwestern  55-41
Illinois  49-47
Wisconsin  50-48
Michigan  49-48
Penn State  45-50
Rutgers  43-54
Iowa  44-53
Maryland  42-55
MSU  39-56

man, that's impressive.

Wonder what I could do if I didn't spend all of my spare time taking naps?

I'd take 5-3 right now. Unless one of the three was to U of M

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

NigelUno wrote:(Copyright tSwill 2023)

8-4 Rutgers  H3 Neb, UM, NW / A5 IU, ILL, Wis, PSU, Minn
7-5 Illinois  H4 Minn, RU, NW, UM / A4 PSU, IU, OSU, Pur
7-5 Indiana  H4 RU, ILL, Iowa, UM / A4 UM, NW, MSU, Pur
7-5 Maryland  H4 PSU, Pur, Minn, NW / A4 MSU, Neb, OSU, PSU
7-5 Northwestern  H3 IU, Iowa, PSU / A5 OSU, Pur, ILL, MD, RU
7-5 Iowa  H3 OSU, MSU, Neb / A5 Pur, Minn, NW, Wis, IU
7-5 UM  H4 Neb, IU, MSU, Wis / A4 Wis, RU, ILL, IU
6-6 MSU  H4 MD, Minn, IU, OSU / A4 OSU, UM, Iowa, Neb
5-7 Penn State  H4 Wis, ILL, RU, MD / A4 MD, Minn, OSU, NW
5-7 Wisconsin  H4 UM, RU, Iowa, Pur / A4 PSU, Neb, UM, Minn

Toughest Home Schedule by Opponent's (Big Ten) records:
Wisconsin  33-16
Indiana  29-19
Penn State  27-21
Northwestern  19-17
Rutgers  18-19
Maryland  24-25
Illinois  23-25
Michigan  22-27
MSU  18-29
Iowa  13-23

Toughest Road Schedule:
Indiana  31-18
Northwestern  36-24
Michigan  27-21
Illinois  26-22
Iowa  31-30
MSU  21-27
Rutgers  25-35
Penn State  18-29
Maryland  18-30
Wisconsin  17-32

Toughest Overall Schedule:
Indiana  60-37
Northwestern  55-41
Illinois  49-47
Wisconsin  50-48
Michigan  49-48
Penn State  45-50
Rutgers  43-54
Iowa  44-53
Maryland  42-55
MSU  39-56

man, that's impressive.

Wonder what I could do if I didn't spend all of my spare time taking naps?

I need a nap.

DWags wrote:[tw]1622643431830097922?s=46&t=iwLCtZJK6ITo8Dd4Qs64UA[/tw]

3 of the 4 worst teams in the conference.

NigelUno wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote: man, that's impressive.

Wonder what I could do if I didn't spend all of my spare time taking naps?

I need a nap.

took two today. I currently have at least one scheduled for tomorrow.

Tonight's Matchups. Go IU?

Rutgers 8-4
@Indiana 7-5

Maryland 7-5
@MSU 6-6

Tonight's Match ups with MSU at 7-6:

Iowa 7-5 @ Purdue 11-2 (Purdue -8)
Northwestern 7-5 @ OSU 3-9 (OSU -5)

The Weekend:

Saturday:
Penn State 5-8 @ Maryland 7-6
Rutgers 8-5 @ Illinois 7-5
Wisconsin 6-7 @ Nebraska 4-10
Indiana 8-5 @ Michigan 8-5

Sunday:
Iowa 7-6 @ Minnesota 1-11
MSU 7-6 @ OSU 3-10
Purdue 12-2 @ Northwestern 8-5

Go Lions
Go Gophers

I would have preferred a Northwestern loss to Purdue.

But good for them.

Toughest Remaining Schedules

All teams have 3 home/3 away remaining, except for:
Illinois 3 home/4 away
Wisconsin 4 home/2 away
Michigan 2 home/4 away

Toughest Home Schedule:
Wisconsin (6-8)  36-21
Indiana (9-5)  24-17
Penn State (5-9)  24-17
Northwestern (9-5)  22-20
Maryland (8-6)  22-20
Rutgers (8-6)  22-21
Michigan (8-6)  14-14
Illinois (8-5)  18-23
Iowa (8-6)  16-27
MSU (8-6)  13-28

Toughest Road Schedule:
Indiana (9-5)  29-14
Northwestern (9-5)  24-17
Iowa (8-6)  24-18
Michigan (8-6)  31-24
Illinois (8-5)  29-28
MSU (8-6)  21-22
Wisconsin (6-8)  9-18
Penn State (5-9)  13-28
Maryland (8-6)  13-30
Rutgers (8-6)  12-29

Toughest Total Schedule:
Indiana (9-5)  53-31 (does not play a team with a losing record)
Northwestern (9-5)  46-37 (easiest game is Penn State)
Michigan (8-6)  45-38 (4 road games) (plays Wisconsin twice)
Wisconsin (6-8)  45-39 (4 home games)
Illinois (8-5)  47-51 (4 road games)
Iowa (8-6)  40-45
Penn State (5-9)  37-45
Maryland (8-6)  35-50
Rutgers (8-6)  34-50
MSU (8-6)  34-50

Standings with toughest schedule of these 10 teams:

Indiana 9-5 #1
Northwestern 9-5 #2

Illinois 8-5 #5

MSU 8-6 #10
Rutgers 8-6 #9
Maryland 8-6 #8
Iowa 8-6 #6
Michigan 8-6 #3

Wisconsin 6-8 #4

Penn State 5-9 #7

This is the kind of content I pay the Travis' donate for.

Seems like there will be a huge log jam at 11-9, at the end of the season.

We have the easiest path to get there (11-9) with games against OSU, Minnesota, and Nebraska.

The 2 teams a game ahead of us have the 2 toughest schedules. 12-8 should get us to a Top 4 seed. A win over IU, @UM, or @Iowa does that. Winning 2 of those 3 gets us to 13-7. I think that would lock up 2nd.

Pretty sure Michigan is going to be a tough game, so Iu or @ Iowa...

Penn State bringing Illinois to the 8-6 party.

Nebraska wins @ Rutgers!

And down goes UM.

Juwan gets a T, and Dicky booed every touch.

DWags wrote:Hoiberg coach of the year?

Collins

DWags wrote:Hoiberg coach of the year?

Collins. As long as Northwestern doesn't blow up down the stretch.

Painter?

InTenSity wrote:The game against Minny is postponed. Are we going to play tomorrow and then Saturday, or would they do it next Thursday? I don't see a spot left in the schedule to make this game up. The B1G tournament starts on Wed, now right?

If they don't play tomorrow, they're going to have to move some other games around (or either MSU or Minny will have to play back to back).

Tournament starts on Wednesday. Could play that Monday I guess, but Minnesota plays on Sunday. And Minnesota is already playing a postponed game with Illinois.

Northwestern jumps into 2nd place all alone. 3-0 since tOfficial Swill Battle began. Only other undefeated team in that timeframe is MSU at 2-0.

Separation Saturday/Sunday

Saturday, February 18, 2023
Illinois 8-6 @ Indiana 9-6
12:00 PM
ESPN

Rutgers 8-7 @ Wisconsin 7-8
12:00 PM
BTN

Michigan State 8-6 @ Michigan 8-7
8:00 PM
FOX

Penn State 6-9 @ Minnesota 1-12
9:00 PM
BTN

Sunday, February 19, 2023
Ohio State 3-12 @ Purdue 12-4
1:00 PM
CBS

Maryland 9-6 @ Nebraska 6-10
5:00 PM
FS1

Iowa 9-6 @ Northwestern 10-5
6:30 PM
BTN

(Copyright tSwill 2023 - through 2/18)

Would like to see Maryland and Iowa lose today.

(1.  12-4 Purdue )

2. 10-5 Northwestern  H4 Pur, IU, Iowa, PSU / A4 OSU, ILL, MD, RU
3. 10-6 Indiana  H4 RU, ILL, Iowa, UM / A4 UM,NW, MSU, Pur    
4. 9-6 Maryland  H4 PSU, Pur, Minn, NW / A4 MSU, Neb, OSU, PSU  
4. 9-6 Iowa  H3 OSU, MSU, Neb / A5 Pur, Minn, NW, Wis, IU
6. 9-7 Rutgers  H3 Neb, UM, NW / A5 IU, ILL, Wis, PSU, Minn   
6. 9-7 UM  H4 Neb, IU, MSU, Wis / A4 Wis, RU, ILL, IU  
8. 8-7 Illinois  H4 RU, Minn, NW, UM / A4 PSU, IU, OSU, Pur  
8. 8-7 MSU  H4 MD, Minn, IU, OSU / A4 OSU, UM, Iowa, Neb  
10. 7-9 Wisconsin  H4 UM, RU, Iowa, Pur / A4 PSU, Neb, UM, Minn
10. 7-9 Penn State  H4 Wis, ILL, RU, MD / A4 MD, Minn, OSU, NW

(Copyright tSwill 2023 - through 2/22)


(1.  13-4 Purdue )

2. 11-5 Northwestern  H4 Pur, IU, Iowa, PSU / A4 OSU, ILL, MD, RU
3. 10-7 Indiana  H4 RU, ILL, Iowa, UM / A4 UM,NW, MSU, Pur      
3. 10-7 Maryland  H4 PSU, Pur, Minn,  NW / A4 MSU, Neb, OSU, PSU    
5. 9-7 MSU  H4 MD, IU, OSU, (Minn) / A4 OSU, UM, Iowa, Neb
5. 9-7 Rutgers  H3 Neb, UM, NW / A5 IU, ILL, Wis, PSU, Minn   
5. 9-7 UM  H4 Neb, IU, MSU, Wis / A4 Wis, RU, ILL, IU  
5. 9-7 Illinois  H4 RU, Minn, NW, UM / A4 PSU, IU, OSU, Pur  
9. 9-8 Iowa  H3 OSU, MSU, Neb / A5 Pur, Minn, NW, Wis, IU  
10. 8-9 Wisconsin  H4 UM, RU, Iowa, Pur / A4 PSU, Neb, UM, Minn
11. 7-9 Penn State  H4 Wis, ILL, RU, MD / A4 MD, Minn, OSU, NW

Home Record of 2-11 teams 18-4 (in time frame of Super Swill Analysis)
Away Record of 2-11 teams 7-15

My prediction of anywhere from 2-11th place appears spot on.

I don't think the Minnesota @ MSU game gets played.

Toughest Home Schedule Left:
Wisconsin 22-11
Rutgers 20-12
Indiana 18-14
Penn State 18-14
Iowa 15-17
Illinois 21-25
Northwestern 7-9
Michigan 7-9
MSU 13-19 (without Minnesota)
Maryland 12-18
MSU 14-32 (with Minnesota)

Toughest Road Schedule:
Indiana 21-11
UM 27-20*
Northwestern 26-21*
Iowa 17-15
Illinois 16-17
MSU 16-17
Penn State 14-18
Wisconsin 10-20
Maryland 10-22
Rutgers 8-22
*(3 Road Games)

Toughest Overall Schedule:
Indiana 39-25
UM 34-29
Northwestern 33-30
Wisconsin 32-31
Iowa 32-32
Penn State 32-32
Illinois 37-42
Rutgers 28-34
MSU 29-36 (without Minnesota)
MSU 30-49 (with Minnesota)
Maryland 22-40

Thursday, February 23, 2023

Penn State @ Ohio State
6:30 PM
FS1

Michigan 9-7 @ Rutgers 9-7
8:30 PM
FS1

Northwestern 11-5 @ Illinois 9-7
9:00 PM
BTN

Go Rutgers. Go Cats.

Nigel needs some sort of Nobel Prize for his work on this..

maybe the Nigel Prize.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:Nigel needs some sort of Nobel Prize for his work on this..

maybe the Nigel Prize.

Subscription only being considered!

Illinois came back and beat Northwestern. Dang. Down 18 at half.

(Copyright tSwill 2023 - through 2/23)


(1.  13-4 Purdue )

2. 11-6 Northwestern  H4 Pur, IU, Iowa, PSU / A4 OSU, ILL, MD, RU  
3. 10-7 Indiana  H4 RU, ILL, Iowa, UM / A4 UM,NW, MSU, Pur      
3. 10-7 Maryland  H4 PSU, Pur, Minn,  NW / A4 MSU, Neb, OSU, PSU    
3. 10-7 Illinois  H4 RU, Minn, NW, UM / A4 PSU, IU, OSU, Pur  
3. 10-7 UM  H4 Neb, IU, MSU, Wis / A4 Wis, RU, ILL, IU  
7. 9-7 MSU  H4 MD, IU, OSU, (Minn) / A4 OSU, UM, Iowa, Neb
8. 9-8 Rutgers  H3 Neb, UM, NW / A5 IU, ILL, Wis, PSU, Minn   
8. 9-8 Iowa  H3 OSU, MSU, Neb / A5 Pur, Minn, NW, Wis, IU  
10. 8-9 Wisconsin  H4 UM, RU, Iowa, Pur / A4 PSU, Neb, UM, Minn
10. 8-9 Penn State  H4 Wis, ILL, RU, MD / A4 MD, Minn, OSU, NW

Home Record of 2-11 teams 19-5 (in time frame of Super Swill Analysis - Rutgers has 2 of the losses)
Away Record of 2-11 teams 9-16