538 predicting a 50/50 Senate

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Is that something you would bet on?

Can't wait until the wild shift away from the White House at the midterms.

Turtleneck wrote:Is that something you would bet on?

I think they have that possibility at 16%.

My threshold is somewhere around     

I think the R's hold NH, IN and MO.....so 52-48.

Dems get ready for the '18 bloodbath, they're defending like 24 seats including a lot of RedStates.

LooseGoose wrote:I think the R's hold NH, IN and MO.....so 52-48.

Dems get ready for the '18 bloodbath, they're defending like 24 seats including a lot of RedStates.

R's will hold WI as well

LooseGoose wrote:I think the R's hold NH, IN and MO.....so 52-48.

Dems get ready for the '18 bloodbath, they're defending like 24 seats including a lot of RedStates.

I think that would make it 51-49.

CheesySpartan wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:I think the R's hold NH, IN and MO.....so 52-48.

Dems get ready for the '18 bloodbath, they're defending like 24 seats including a lot of RedStates.

R's will hold WI as well

I hope since I like Johnson but an uphill climb there.

NigelUno wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:I think the R's hold NH, IN and MO.....so 52-48.

Dems get ready for the '18 bloodbath, they're defending like 24 seats including a lot of RedStates.

I think that would make it 51-49.

Work on your math skills.

LooseGoose wrote:

CheesySpartan wrote:

R's will hold WI as well

I hope since I like Johnson but an uphill climb there.

Dead heat as of last week. I think he wins by 1-2 points even though Clinton wins by 4-5.

LooseGoose wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

I think that would make it 51-49.

Work on your math skills.

538 shows Indiana and Missouri as red, and NH as blue making it 50/50.

If NH goes red (as you think), that would make it 51-49 (as you would add one to the red, and subtract one from the blue).

Can you explain how you came up with 52-48?

CheesySpartan wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

I hope since I like Johnson but an uphill climb there.

Dead heat as of last week. I think he wins by 1-2 points even though Clinton wins by 4-5.

dude, I PM'd you last week and you're still ignoring me.

it's okay, though. I'm allright.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

CheesySpartan wrote:

Dead heat as of last week. I think he wins by 1-2 points even though Clinton wins by 4-5.

dude, I PM'd you last week and you're still ignoring me.

it's okay, though. I'm allright.

Are you good at math? Am I missing something?

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

CheesySpartan wrote:

Dead heat as of last week. I think he wins by 1-2 points even though Clinton wins by 4-5.

dude, I PM'd you last week and you're still ignoring me.

it's okay, though. I'm allright.

Me? Never got it.

NigelUno wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

Work on your math skills.

538 shows Indiana and Missouri as red, and NH as blue making it 50/50.

If NH goes red (as you think), that would make it 51-49 (as you would add one to the red, and subtract one from the blue).

Can you explain how you came up with 52-48?

WI for Johnson as well?

CheesySpartan wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:dude, I PM'd you last week and you're still ignoring me.

it's okay, though. I'm allright.

Me? Never got it.

maybe I sent it to someone else -

(if that's the case, I only want to share intimacy with CheesySpartan.. not whoever received the PM).

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

CheesySpartan wrote:

Me?  Never got it.

maybe I sent it to someone else -

(if that's the case, I only want to share intimacy with CheesySpartan.. not whoever received the PM).

 

CheesySpartan wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:dude, I PM'd you last week and you're still ignoring me.

it's okay, though. I'm allright.

Me? Never got it.

okay - I resent the request for sexual relations.

(and by "resent", I mean I sent another request. Not that I find the initial request morally offensive).

CheesySpartan wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

538 shows Indiana and Missouri as red, and NH as blue making it 50/50.

If NH goes red (as you think), that would make it 51-49 (as you would add one to the red, and subtract one from the blue).

Can you explain how you came up with 52-48?  

WI for Johnson as well?

538 has that as blue (as part of the 50/50 split) already.  Loose didn't mention Wisconsin flipping (away from the model).

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
maybe I sent it to someone else -

(if that's the case, I only want to share intimacy with CheesySpartan.. not whoever received the PM).

 

hey man, just because I'm easy doesn't mean I'm cheap.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

 

hey man, just because I'm easy doesn't mean I'm cheap.

Watch party at your house is cancelled. :(

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
hey man, just because I'm easy doesn't mean I'm cheap.

Watch party at your house is cancelled. :(

what am I supposed to do with all of the plastic I have to cover the couches, floors and curtains?

and what about the KY?? I've already opened it.. I can't take it back now!!!

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

Watch party at your house is cancelled. :(

what am I supposed to do with all of the plastic I have to cover the couches, floors and curtains?

and what about the KY?? I've already opened it.. I can't take it back now!!!  

I'm sure you and Cheesy can figure something out.

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
what am I supposed to do with all of the plastic I have to cover the couches, floors and curtains?

and what about the KY?? I've already opened it.. I can't take it back now!!!  

I'm sure you and Cheesy can figure something out.

Even without the KY, the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl watch parties at Bob's were frickin' epic!!! (no homo)

CheesySpartan wrote:

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

I'm sure you and Cheesy can figure something out.

Even without the KY, the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl watch parties at Bob's were frickin' epic!!! (no homo)

they were truly epic. I'm still trying to get the smoke damage out of the the inside of the refrigerator.

And the parakeet still thinks he's a three-toed sloth.. but we're working on it.

NigelUno wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

Work on your math skills.

538 shows Indiana and Missouri as red, and NH as blue making it 50/50.

If NH goes red (as you think), that would make it 51-49 (as you would add one to the red, and subtract one from the blue).

Can you explain how you came up with 52-48?

I think Toomey pulls it out in PA. IF he fails and Cheesey is right then Johnson is 52.

I think Ayotte has it won in NH.

LooseGoose wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

538 shows Indiana and Missouri as red, and NH as blue making it 50/50.

If NH goes red (as you think), that would make it 51-49 (as you would add one to the red, and subtract one from the blue).

Can you explain how you came up with 52-48?

I think Toomey pulls it out in PA. IF he fails and Cheesey is right then Johnson is 52.

I think Ayotte has it won in NH.

Got it. So, my math skills were pretty spot on (as you mentioned neither PA or WI before). Thank you for clearing that up.

And this bodes well for Toomey.....even the Washington Post is surprised at how strong Trump's ground game is in PA.

If he does well there, then Toomey wins.

If Trump wins there, welcome him as your President.

Donald Trump’s ground game may be more robust than you think

LooseGoose wrote:And this bodes well for Toomey.....even the Washington Post is surprised at how strong Trump's ground game is in PA.

If he does well there, then Toomey wins.

If Trump wins there, welcome him as your President.

Donald Trump’s ground game may be more robust than you think

That article is from yesterday, and...

"The takeaway

The GOTV efforts of the two campaigns in Pennsylvania were a microcosm of the campaigns on the whole. On the one hand, Donald Trump has a lot of supporters who are actively behind him — but the campaign is making some simple mistakes that is keeping it from being as effective as it could be. Clinton's support is a bit less energetic (at least on this day, in these places), but the campaign itself has a system locked in place.

Early voting numbers suggest that Clinton's team is having some luck in driving turnout among its base. In Pennsylvania, we won't know how effective all that plan-making has been until polls close on Tuesday."

LooseGoose wrote:And this bodes well for Toomey.....even the Washington Post is surprised at how strong Trump's ground game is in PA.

If he does well there, then Toomey wins.

If Trump wins there, welcome him as your President.

Donald Trump’s ground game may be more robust than you think

I'm just thankful you're not pulling for Trump.

Goose is not republican.

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Goose is not republican.

Thanks OTPT, good to see you realizing that reporting the news isn't becoming a member of the party.

And before someone start on the one sided crap, keep in mind there are about 10 of you to provide leftist/socialist updates.

And with that....I think this guy has been in CO with OTPT.

Guy BensonVerified account ‏@guypbenson
FWIW, just chatted with some RNC folks who've combed over lots of data & are feeling bullish in some blue states.

Guy Benson ‏@guypbenson 56m56 minutes ago
Maybe it's polyannish spin, trying to impact narrative to help with turnout. Or maybe they trust their data. Seemed confident.

LooseGoose wrote:And this bodes well for Toomey.....even the Washington Post is surprised at how strong Trump's ground game is in PA.

If he does well there, then Toomey wins.

If Trump wins there, welcome him as your President.

Donald Trump’s ground game may be more robust than you think

LooseGoose wrote:
https://morningconsult.com/2016/11/08/clinton-bests-trump-ground-game-per-exit-poll-data/

CheesySpartan wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

I hope since I like Johnson but an uphill climb there.

Dead heat as of last week. I think he wins by 1-2 points even though Clinton wins by 4-5.

Johnson wins WI and fuckin Trump might win as well...crazy