Re: US Price Inflation Year-to-Year Prediction - Reset after Mid-Term - December 2022 Title Update

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-09-15, 13:15

kingstonlake wrote:I need to let Meijer know that inflation is being driven by the housing market and they can bring that flat iron steak down from $10.99 a lb to the $6.99 it use to be.

Think I’ll write a letter.

We bought porterhouse at $7.99/lb last week, its called shopping, and it is what private markets are supposed to, but don't without active shoppers, do.

Why would Meijer, or anyone else drop their prices when people are buying? Remember Meijer is controlling the supply too, which is why we need new policies in Washington.

by Zurn 2023-09-15, 18:13

Trapper Gus wrote:]

We bought porterhouse at $7.99/lb last week, its called shopping, and it is what private markets are supposed to, but don't without active shoppers, do.

Why would Meijer, or anyone else drop their prices when people are buying? Remember Meijer is controlling the supply too, which is why we need new policies in Washington.

An $8/lb porterhouse. Tough as a 2 dollar steak factoring in inflation.

And you want the feds to be telling Meijer how many steaks to put in their butcher counter? My god ...

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-09-15, 18:36

Zurn wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:]

We bought porterhouse at $7.99/lb last week, its called shopping, and it is what private markets are supposed to, but don't without active shoppers, do.

Why would Meijer, or anyone else drop their prices when people are buying? Remember Meijer is controlling the supply too, which is why we need new policies in Washington.

An $8/lb porterhouse. Tough as a 2 dollar steak

factoring in inflation.

And you want the feds to be telling Meijer how many steaks to put in their butcher counter? My god ...

Jealous no doubt, they were very good.

No. I want competition in the markets instead of big box stores and the 8 big food companies setting prices and availability.

by AvgMSUJoe 2023-09-16, 09:47

So like 30 min away there is this 4 way stop town with a grocery store, people travel just to buy... places like this used to be in every town. Competition used to be a thing.
Cheap(er).
https://www.nixonsgrocery.com/

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-10-12, 09:27

Trapper Gus wrote:
TG wrote:Here are my guesses for the year-to-year for the next 12 months. (Remember the report in January is for December, in February for January ...)

6.7% (a 0.4% drop) Dec - 2022 --- actual 6.5%
6.3% (a 0.4% drop) Jan - 2023 --- actual 6.4%
5.8% (a 0.5% drop) Feb - 2023 --- actual 6.0%
4.8% (a 1.0% drop) Mar - 2023 --- actual 5.0%
4.7% (a 0.1% drop) Apr - 2023 --- actual 4.9%
4.0% (a 0.7% drop) May - 2023 --- actual 4.0%
3.0% (a 1.0% drop) Jun - 2023 --- actual 3.0%
3.1% (a 0.1% increase) Jul - 2023 --- actual 3.2%
2.9% (a 0.2% drop) Aug - 2023 --- actual 3.7%
2.8% (a 0.1% drop) Sep - 2023 --- actual 3.7%
2.6% (a 0.2% drop) Oct - 2023
2.5% (a 0.1% drop) Nov - 2023

TG wrote: So second miss, & it is huge, off by 0.9%. Better luck next month, maybe. (Best excuse I have is there was a time, before 2008, when 3.7% year-to-year was considered outstanding) Probably going to be off by at least 0.9% in the last two predictions, too. The month to month of a 0.1% drop is very close, however.

CPI Report wrote:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, the same increase as the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending September, and the food index increased 3.7 percent over the last year.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

As some of you will know, a significant part of these increases are profit gouging by big business, because they can.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-10-12, 09:58

WASHINGTON (AP) — Measures of U.S. inflation in September showed that the pace of price increases is still grinding lower, though at a slow and uneven pace.

Consumer prices in the United States increased 0.4% from August to September, below the previous month’s 0.6% pace. Thursday’s report from the Labor Department also showed that year-over-year inflation in September was unchanged from a 3.7% rise in August.

And underlying inflation declined a bit last month: So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, climbed 4.1% in September from 12 months earlier, down from a 4.3% annual pace in August. That is the smallest such increase in the core measure in two years.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-interest-rates-economy-federal-reserve-8ab5c75e191a31942f2fcf1eeb8fa44c

Odd that AP has put a completely different spin on these numbers, showing how the media is as much of the perceptions of the people as the numbers themselves.

AP published this chart yesterday, shows where prices are dropping, too.

US Price Inflation Year-to-Year Prediction - Reset after Mid-Term - December 2022 Title Update - Page 4 Scree186

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-14, 08:44

TG wrote:Here are my guesses for the year-to-year for the next 12 months. (Remember the report in January is for December, in February for January ...)

6.7% (a 0.4% drop) Dec - 2022 --- actual 6.5%
6.3% (a 0.4% drop) Jan - 2023 --- actual 6.4%
5.8% (a 0.5% drop) Feb - 2023 --- actual 6.0%
4.8% (a 1.0% drop) Mar - 2023 --- actual 5.0%
4.7% (a 0.1% drop) Apr - 2023 --- actual 4.9%
4.0% (a 0.7% drop) May - 2023 --- actual 4.0%
3.0% (a 1.0% drop) Jun - 2023 --- actual 3.0%
3.1% (a 0.1% increase) Jul - 2023 --- actual 3.2%
2.9% (a 0.2% drop) Aug - 2023 --- actual 3.7%
2.8% (a 0.1% drop) Sep - 2023 --- actual 3.7%
2.6% (a 0.2% drop) Oct - 2023 --- actual 3.2%
2.5% (a 0.1% drop) Nov - 2023

It will be interesting so see what November comes in at given the drop in fuel prices during the last few weeks...

The 0.5% drop is helpful to the numbers more closely matching my predictions.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in October, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index and resulting in the seasonally adjusted index being unchanged over the month. The energy index fell 2.5 percent over the month as a 5.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.2 percent in September. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in September. Indexes which increased in October include rent, owners' equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation, and personal care. The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, communication, and airline fares were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index rose 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a smaller increase than the 3.7-percent increase for the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month change since the period ending in September 2021. The energy index decreased 4.5 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 3.3 percent over the last year.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 6.7 percent over the last year, accounting for over 70 percent of the total increase in the all items less food and energy index.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-interest-rates-economy-federal-reserve-1f83d45fc6e30c6864d1b02913ec60c6

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. wholesale prices fell sharply last month as inflationary pressure continued to ease after a year and a half of higher interest rates.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — dropped 0.5% in October from September, the first decline since May and biggest since April 2020. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices rose 1.3% from October 2022, down from 2.2% in September and the smallest gain since July.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core consumer prices were unchanged from September to October and rose 2.4% from a year earlier. The year-over-year gain in core producer prices was the smallest since January 2021.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-producer-prices-federal-reserve-f1e6dbcf56e45b3bc43022bb0fa94307

by Zurn 2023-11-15, 10:57

Does Vegas take bets on the inflation rate?

by **GRR Spartan** 2023-11-15, 14:47

Show the poster currently calling themselves Zurn facts and there’s a pivot to betting and free market.

Keep on trying multi-named poster.

by Zurn 2023-11-15, 16:37

Fun fact: groceries cost 20% more than they did in December 2020.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-15, 19:29

Zurn wrote:Fun fact: groceries cost 20% more than they did in December 2020.

But only 2.1% higher than they were in October 2022.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-15, 19:34

Zurn wrote:Does Vegas take bets on the inflation rate?

My predictions, from December 2022, were done to show that the Fed rate increases have very little to do with controlling inflation. They were very simple to make.

The inflation we have seen since 2021 are simply price gouging done by the owners of businesses, some of which was done to try to create political pressure to facilitate the election of Republicans. It was beyond simple to subtract that gouging from the year to year numbers, which was all I did.

Most of the current inflation is a real estate bubble created by billionaires cornering the residential housing marker because they have too much capital with no place to spend it.

The Fed has been panting in the traces to increase interest rates ever since 2016, and now they have. Billionaires now have a safe place to get almost a 5% return on unused capital.

by Zurn 2023-11-15, 19:53

Trapper Gus wrote:

Most of the current inflation is a real estate bubble created by billionaires cornering the residential housing marker because they have too much capital with no place to spend it.

Residential housing prices are not a part of the CPI.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-15, 19:58

Zurn wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

Most of the current inflation is a real estate bubble created by billionaires cornering the residential housing marker because they have too much capital with no place to spend it.

Residential housing prices are not a part of the CPI.

They are factored in as equivalent rent, so yes they are.

Also, many of the residential housing owned by billionaires is being rented and those rents are more directly part of the CPI. If my memory serves about 40% of the CPI is "housing"

by AvgMSUJoe 2023-11-15, 21:27

Zurn wrote:Fun fact: groceries cost 20% more than they did in December 2020.

Ok, what would trump or any R do about this? Fix prices? Socialism?

I don't understand the bitching about this.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-16, 08:23

AvgMSUJoe wrote:
Zurn wrote:Fun fact: groceries cost 20% more than they did in December 2020.
Ok, what would trump or any R do about this? Fix prices? Socialism?

I don't understand the bitching about this.

Oh, I understand the bitching, people will bitch about it being sunny and 75 degrees.

It does suck that the business owners raised prices with no justification other than huge profits, but that is what Reagan et al created.

Biden has taken some actions, releasing oil from the strategic reserve, opening up the ports 247, but the Billionaire Republican owners saw the chance to rob the country with the added benefit of getting to blame the Democratics and they took it. As Bob says, most people are too stupid to know what happened.

by Zurn 2023-11-19, 08:12

Trapper Gus wrote:

They (residential housing prices) are factored in as equivalent rent, so yes they are.

Also, many of the residential housing owned by billionaires is being rented and those rents are more directly part of the CPI. If my memory serves about 40% of the CPI is "housing"

My statement stands. Home prices are not a part of the CPI. In fact the CPI would likely be lower if they were. My house is paid for. My housing expense is no greater than it was 5 years ago. The government using some artificially calculated "rent equivalent" to determine my housing expense is a great example of "garbage in, garbage out". Furthermore rent and housing prices do not move lockstep. Also I am unaware of any billionaires buying up the houses in my neighborhood although I wish they would make me an offer.

by Zurn 2023-11-19, 08:20

AvgMSUJoe wrote:
Zurn wrote:Fun fact: groceries cost 20% more than they did in December 2020.
Ok, what would trump or any R do about this? Fix prices? Socialism?

I don't understand the bitching about this.

The way to fix inflation is to address the root cause. Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. That's econ 101. Trump is as much to blame for this as Biden. There are a few Republicans that are speaking to the spending problem, there are no Democrats who desire to address this that I am aware of.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-19, 09:02

Zurn wrote:
AvgMSUJoe wrote:Ok, what would trump or any R do about this? Fix prices? Socialism?

I don't understand the bitching about this.

The way to fix inflation is to address the root cause. Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. That's econ 101. Trump is as much to blame for this as Biden. There are a few Republicans that are speaking to the spending problem, there are no Democrats who desire to address this that I am aware of.

It is more complex than "too much money chasing too few goods", (goods & services to be more correct).

It depends on which part of the population has the money as to where prices will increase. It also depends on the availability of goods & services and the amount of power over maintaining control of those prices the sellers have.

In general the sellers will charge as much as they can, which in markets, like the US, where the sellers are in defacto cartels, the sellers control the supply to increase the prices, or simply raise the prices because they control most of the market, and they can price at whatever they want to price, regardless of real supply. This is a significant part of the "covid" inflation.

The consolidation of sellers is partly due to too much capital (money) in the hands of the billionaires, aka the Reagan/Bush/Trump tax cuts.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-19, 09:12

Zurn wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

They (residential housing prices) are factored in as equivalent rent, so yes they are.

Also, many of the residential housing owned by billionaires is being rented and those rents are more directly part of the CPI. If my memory serves about 40% of the CPI is "housing"

My statement stands. Home prices are not a part of the CPI. In fact the CPI would likely be lower if they were. My house is paid for. My housing expense is no greater than it was 5 years ago. The government using some artificially calculated "rent equivalent" to determine my housing expense is a great example of "garbage in, garbage out". Furthermore rent and housing prices do not move lockstep. Also I am unaware of any billionaires buying up the houses in my neighborhood although I wish they would make me an offer.

Technically yes (and no)

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/how-wall-street-bought-single-family-homes-and-put-them-up-for-rent.html

With the billionaires buying up housing stock to rent it out they are able to rent at rents high enough to pay for their payments on their investments. They are buying a significant percentage of new homes, and they are outbidding individuals to do so, thus increasing home prices. I haven't checked, but it wouldn't be surprising if they are turning these mortgages into MBB's and selling them to pension funds. In any case the rents they charge are part of what is used to calculate equivalent rents. So their domination of the markets is part of what is causing the CPI increases.

by AvgMSUJoe 2023-11-19, 09:30

Zurn wrote:
AvgMSUJoe wrote:Ok, what would trump or any R do about this? Fix prices? Socialism?

I don't understand the bitching about this.

The way to fix inflation is to address the root cause. Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. That's econ 101. Trump is as much to blame for this as Biden. There are a few Republicans that are speaking to the spending problem, there are no Democrats who desire to address this that I am aware of.

Uh yeah... post pandemic "high" is roughly 1 point higher then target? That's a tweak.

The real issue is the inflation that happened during the pandemic from supply issues and greedflation... that won't go back without proper competition to push it down. Not one R would support that as a policy.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-20, 08:24

https://apnews.com/article/economy-inflation-prices-jobs-income-recession-unemployment-e9e96643d8a1eb3ab2f57810219b8324

This article says the issue isn't inflation overall, just food & gas prices, both of which are highly manipulated by the suppliers and food is susceptible to supply issues, such as the bird flu requiring a mass slaughter of all the egg bearing chickens & the dry weather in the west reducing the cattle herds.

Blaming any one politician for those is stupid, but as Bob says...

While inflation, overall, generally, unless the bank's do something bizarre, like Germany in the early 1920's, and honestly that was in reaction to an idiotic Treat of Versailles which imposed impossible terms on Germany for war fines, isn't caused by is the money supply. The problem with prices being labeled inflation is the volatility of prices due to other factors.

[tw]1725178489282650134[/tw]

[tw]1725870707244998844[/tw]

by AvgMSUJoe 2023-11-20, 09:36

But the local news says prices are rising and no one can have thanksgiving, so everyone has to hate biden. (not fox)

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-26, 08:34

Americans now expect prices to rise to an annual pace of 4.5% over the next year, up from 4.2% in October and from 3.2% in September, the University of Michigan's consumer survey revealed Wednesday.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumers-inflation-expectations-rise-2nd-month-umich-2023-11-22/#:~:text=American%20households%20see%20inflation%20accelerating,the%20highest%20rate%20since%20April.

Personally, I think that estimate is high. Without any analysis and not much thought I would expect inflation to come in just above 2%, maybe lower.

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-11-30, 08:56

Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department said prices were unchanged from September to October, down from a 0.4% rise the previous month. Compared with a year ago, prices rose 3% in October, below the 3.4% annual rate in September. It was the lowest year-over-year inflation rate in more than 2 1/2 years.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-federal-reserve-rates-economy-spending-7556d8c45993a0fee9dedb3765407468

edit december 12th

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-interest-rates-economy-federal-reserve-e6c70e11671a5803eac13cb8a55f1f3a

by **Trapper Gus** 2023-12-12, 08:39

TG wrote:Here are my guesses for the year-to-year for the next 12 months. (Remember the report in January is for December, in February for January ...)

6.7% (a 0.4% drop) Dec - 2022 --- actual 6.5% --- actual change a 0.6% drop*
6.3% (a 0.4% drop) Jan - 2023 --- actual 6.4% --- actual change a 0.3% drop*
5.8% (a 0.5% drop) Feb - 2023 --- actual 6.0% --- actual change a 0.4% drop*
4.8% (a 1.0% drop) Mar - 2023 --- actual 5.0% --- actual change a 1.0% drop
4.7% (a 0.1% drop) Apr - 2023 --- actual 4.9% --- actual change a 0.1% drop
4.0% (a 0.7% drop) May - 2023 --- actual 4.0% --- actual change a 0.9% drop*
3.0% (a 1.0% drop) Jun - 2023 --- actual 3.0% --- actual change a 1.0% drop
3.1% (a 0.1% increase) Jul - 2023 --- actual 3.2% --- actual change a 0.2% increase*
2.9% (a 0.2% drop) Aug - 2023 --- actual 3.7% --- actual change a 0.5% increase
2.8% (a 0.1% drop) Sep - 2023 --- actual 3.7% --- actual change a 0.0% change*
2.6% (a 0.2% drop) Oct - 2023 --- actual 3.2% --- actual change a 0.5% drop
2.5% (a 0.1% drop) Nov - 2023 --- actual 3.1% --- actual change a 0.1% drop --- The PCE was 2.6%

* I did included a +/- 0.2% range for monthly changes.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - NOVEMBER 2023

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in November, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index. The energy index fell 2.3 percent over the month as a 6.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, after rising 0.2 percent in October. Indexes which increased in November include rent, owners' equivalent rent, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. The indexes for apparel, household furnishings and operations, communication, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index rose 3.1 percent for the 12 months ending November, a smaller increase than the 3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending October. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, as it did for the 12 months ending October. The energy index decreased 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending November, while the food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 6.5 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the total increase in the all items less food and energy index.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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