Basketball. Next season. Your thoughts?

Snake Plissken wrote:

Oh Jesus Fucking Christ give it a break man. Seriously. Why make this board into the Tanfan hates tRCMB board? It's not necessary.

Dude. We should pass kidney stones and gas together.

Tanfan! wrote:

Don't forget 2002! Come on Duffy. You are slipping.

Yeah, I forgot how bad we sucked in 2002.

Tanfan! wrote:

Dude. We should pass kidney stones and gas together.

Deal   

NigelUno wrote:"18.  Michigan State Spartans: Our first offseason ranking of Michigan State essentially assumed that Gary Harris would leave, which he did. Branden Dawson's return is crucial, and if Denzel Valentine has a big year, Tom Izzo's team might not take as big a step back as everyone is predicting."

    

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/98690/revised-top-25-post-deadline-edition

Ruckus index will be coming soon. Have MSU 4th.

Love rooting for an Izzo team with low expectations. Generally results in profit.

Duffy. I got my rose bowl. I saw two national championships in hoops. I'm not greedy. I'm very happy. I'm happy the football program has finally after 40 years of mediocrity righted the ship. I'm Happy Hollis and md demanded excellence and didn't settle for 500 level football. No carrying off the field 3 and 9 coaches and celebrating their mediocrity. When last season started it looked like it was going to be another long year with your boy maxwell leading the team to a 500 year. Banning people for expressing their anger over shity qb play wasn't the answer. But you and the tea blowers got control of the board. Here. You have no control. It's great. Flame away. I can respond with out a rod banning me and then bragging about it.

Snake Plissken wrote:

Deal   

Honestly passing stones is the worst. Feel better.

When MSU teams have low expectations Izzo usually does his best coaching jobs

I think the league next year has a clear cut favorite, a likely 2nd best team, a clear group at the bottom and a total shit show in the middle. It should be fun.

My thoughts on the order of teams:

1. Wisconsin - Return everyone but Brust. They'll miss Brust at the beginning of the season, but I think by the end Koenig will have filled his shoes pretty well. No recruits or RS Frosh that will likely contribute.

2. Nebraska - Return everyone but Gallegos, but his role was dimished this year and I'm sure they have someone else that can do nothing but jack up threes and make them at a mediocre percentage. Doesn't look like any recruits or RS Frosh are likely contribute much. They are adding a big man grad transfer from G'Town (Moses Ayegba) who will provide some frontcourt depth.

3 - 10 but interchangeable:

MSU - I think Costello takes a large step and brings 8-10 PPG and 8-10 RPG. He has the ability to make a 15 footer even though he hasn't quite shown it yet, and his back to the basket moves were fairly high %. I think he was dead at the end of the year after trying to recover from mono all season. I think Ellis has a good year and brings 7-10 PPG. If he doesn't then I think all that means is that Javon Bess passes him in the rotation. I think the key is Kaminski. If he can provide 10-12/game and improve his defense just a little (his biggest errors were mental by the end of the season) I think this team could challenge for the 2nd spot.

Maryland - Not extremely familiar with their roster, but they return their top 4 scorers/rebounders (including our old friend EVAN SMOTRZXZX). They also have a pretty good recruiting class coming in. However, Mark Turgeon has done shit with this team each of the last three years, only even making the NIT once.

UofM - Hit hard by early entries/graduation/transfers, but Beilein gets the benefit of the doubt. I'm not sure if LeVert will be as good as some people think as he benefited greatly from the floor being spread out by Stauskas' shooting and Robinson's ability to drive from the wing against the opposing 4, but I'm sure he'll give them 15-17 a game. Their big issue will be inside, but Beilein's system will mitigate that somewhat and they might just play more 1-3-1. They have one RS Frosh big man (Donnal) and one true frosh (Chatman) that will likely play big minutes.

OSU - Shanon Scott looked like their best player at times near the end of the year, but they will need a TON of help from their freshmen (who are ranked pretty highly). They have basically 0 scoring in the post and will have to play small to win games. I think they'll likely struggle in the Non-Con, but Matta will have them in the middle to upper tier by the end of the season.

Illinois - Return pretty much everyone (besides Ekey who was pretty terrible). They also have an undersized, but highly ranked PF recruit coming in (Leron Black) that will likely give them some immediate toughness/rebounding inside. They played much better down the stretch and I think they could be a tournament team if they continue playing that type of defense.

Minnesota - They lose Austin Hollins but return quite a bit from their NIT championship team. It looks like they have a big man transfer from Drake coming in and may pickup a pretty good grad transfer from Xavier who could replace Hollins. Not a ton coming in, but shouldn't need much to finish in this tier.

Iowa - I'm not as high on Iowa as some people. They lose their best player, by far, in Devyn Marble, as well as Basabe and their glue guy/fouling machine Zach McCabe. They do have a couple of Juco guys coming in that I'm sure will be expected to contribute.

11-14: Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Penn State - They suck.

SawGreen wrote:Love rooting for an Izzo team with low expectations.   Generally results in profit.

If by profit you mean we overachieve, I agree.

If by profit you mean a deep tourney run, I disagree. Izzo's teams that have made deep tourney runs have all had big expectations that year, ie all 6 Final Fours teams were ranked in top 10 to start the year.

I Still Hate Weber State wrote:I think the league next year has a clear cut favorite, a likely 2nd best team, a clear group at the bottom and a total shit show in the middle.  It should be fun.

My thoughts on the order of teams:

1. Wisconsin - Return everyone but Brust. They'll miss Brust at the beginning of the season, but I think by the end Koenig will have filled his shoes pretty well. No recruits or RS Frosh that will likely contribute.

2. Nebraska - Return everyone but Gallegos, but his role was dimished this year and I'm sure they have someone else that can do nothing but jack up threes and make them at a mediocre percentage. Doesn't look like any  recruits or RS Frosh are likely contribute much. They are adding a big man grad transfer from G'Town (Moses Ayegba) who will provide some frontcourt depth.

3 - 10 but interchangeable:

MSU - I think Costello takes a large step and brings 8-10 PPG and 8-10 RPG. He has the ability to make a 15 footer even though he hasn't quite shown it yet, and his back to the basket moves were fairly high %. I think he was dead at the end of the year after trying to recover from mono all season. I think Ellis has a good year and brings 7-10 PPG. If he doesn't then I think all that means is that Javon Bess passes him in the rotation. I think the key is Kaminski. If he can provide 10-12/game and improve his defense just a little (his biggest errors were mental by the end of the season) I think this team could challenge for the 2nd spot.

Maryland - Not extremely familiar with their roster, but they return their top 4 scorers/rebounders (including our old friend EVAN SMOTRZXZX). They also have a pretty good recruiting class coming in. However, Mark Turgeon has done shit with this team each of the last three years, only even making the NIT once.

UofM - Hit hard by early entries/graduation/transfers, but Beilein gets the benefit of the doubt. I'm not sure if LeVert will be as good as some people think as he benefited greatly from the floor being spread out by Stauskas' shooting and Robinson's ability to drive from the wing against the opposing 4, but I'm sure he'll give them 15-17 a game. Their big issue will be inside, but Beilein's system will mitigate that somewhat and they might just play more 1-3-1. They have one RS Frosh big man (Donnal) and one true frosh (Chatman) that will likely play big minutes.

OSU - Shanon Scott looked like their best player at times near the end of the year, but they will need a TON of help from their freshmen (who are ranked pretty highly). They have basically 0 scoring in the post and will have to play small to win games. I think they'll likely struggle in the Non-Con, but Matta will have them in the middle to upper tier by the end of the season.

Illinois - Return pretty much everyone (besides Ekey who was pretty terrible). They also have an undersized, but highly ranked PF recruit coming in (Leron Black) that will likely give them some immediate toughness/rebounding inside. They played much better down the stretch and I think they could be a tournament team if they continue playing that type of defense.

Minnesota - They lose Austin Hollins but return quite a bit from their NIT championship team. It looks like they have a big man transfer from Drake coming in and may pickup a pretty good grad transfer from Xavier who could replace Hollins. Not a ton coming in, but shouldn't need much to finish in this tier.

Iowa - I'm not as high on Iowa as some people. They lose their best player, by far, in Devyn Marble, as well as Basabe and their glue guy/fouling machine Zach McCabe. They do have a couple of Juco guys coming in that I'm sure will be expected to contribute.

11-14: Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Penn State - They suck.

Pretty good assessment. I'm not as high on Nebraska as many people are - they caught some lightning in a bottle this season and I'll be really impressed if they can repeat it.

I do think Maryland has a great opportunity to make noise right out of the gate. As you note, they essentially return everyone and have a Top 10 recruiting class coming in. There will be some adjustment needed to B10 style, but at the same time that difference between our conference and others isn't as big as it used to be thanks to the refs. The B10 is a tough league, but a lot of the really physical play has been taken out of the game, so MD's transition might not be as tough as it would have been say 10 years ago.

Bizarro Fletch wrote:

Pretty good assessment.  I'm not as high on Nebraska as many people are - they caught some lightning in a bottle this season and I'll be really impressed if they can repeat it.

I do think Maryland has a great opportunity to make noise right out of the gate.  As you note, they essentially return everyone and have a Top 10 recruiting class coming in.  There will be some adjustment needed to B10 style, but at the same time that difference between our conference and others isn't as big as it used to be thanks to the refs.  The B10 is a tough league, but a lot of the really physical play has been taken out of the game, so MD's transition might not be as tough as it would have been say 10 years ago.  

I think Miles is a really good coach and they'll be better than they were this year, when they finished 11-7 in a league that was likely better than it will be next year. That was my primary reasoning, as I think 12-6 will be good enough for 2nd. I think we'll see a bunch of teams between 8-10 - 11-7. Maryland could definitely jump ahead of that big pack of teams, I just didn't give them the benefit of the doubt based on how mediocre they've been under Turgeon.

-I have my doubts about Travis' ability to handle so much ball handling responsibility on a game in and game out basis but I look forward to him trying to dribble pass the test and prove the doubters wrong.

-BJ and Zel are a great foundation to build the team around. Both are primed for massive breakout seasons. If Branden ever finds a 15 foot jumper, he becomes a pro almost immediately and I anticipate Denzel finally taking on the kind of leadership role that Izzo craves.

-Costello will be given every opportunity to show everyone what he wanted to show this year but either wasn't able/ready to or wasn't given the green light to. I've seen him practice (and yes I know we've had many "practice shooters" in the past as well) but the kid can truly shoot with range to 20+. I think he'll open more than a few eyes as long as he puts in the work this summer. A major role on a top 25 team is his for the taking.

-The frosh. I like all four of them. Tum Tum is the kind of blur that takes little to no time getting up to speed at the high major level. I don't think he'll get it but he will challenge Travis for starting status within a month or two of the season tip off. Javon is Alan Anderson redux. His smooth all around game will find a key role somewhere on the roster very quickly. Clark is a bit of a mystery man but very solidly built 6'7" athletes who can dribble and shoot...it's hard to imagine him not being in the rotation, especially if Byrd is indeed going to be out of the picture. And Goins, a redshirt is probable barring injury or an early season disappointment from someone like Schilling but Kenny's long term potential is much higher than his PWO status would suggest. A nicely sized athlete like that with his level of motor and intelligence is pretty rare.

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:

Kaminski, but I did forget about him. Maybe it was his lack of defense or anything remotely close to defense. If he can figure some type of defense out and hit some clutch 3s, then he will be a factor also.

Kaminsky's defense improved consistently as the season went on. As did his rebounding. With another season of experience and conditioning under his belt, there's no reason to think he won't be improved even further. And as long as he remains in possession of what will arguably be the best perimeter shot in the Big Ten, he will be a weapon for us.

As always, looking forward to an exciting season and seeing the new recruits.

I think we have a chance to be solid. I think the backcourt should be OK, especially considering the vets and the awesome press Tum and Bess are getting.

Dawson will be awesome. Hoping that Costello and Kaminski make big strides off season.