B1G mailbag: Is playoff worth it for Penn State if it means 'Bama?

kingstonlake wrote:

gHost Spartan wrote:It's much easier to make it to the NCAA Final Four than to the CFP, there is absolutely no dispute. First, a non-P5 team can go undefeated and not even sniff the playoff. For a large number of D1 teams there is literally no chance whatsoever - before the season even begins - to make the CFP. That simply isn't the case in hoops. In hoops, everyone is invited to what are essentially the playoffs and, as we've seen in the past, many Cindarellas like George Mason have made it to the Final Four. I really don't see the argument here. NCAA basketball is much more inclusive and provides an equal platform for teams to advance. In hoops you also don't need as many "good" players to get to the Final Four. A mid-major could have a couple of late bloomers who weren't heavily recruited on their team as seniors and that may be all it takes, whereas in football that's simply not the case.

So really the power 5 conferences are the only ones getting in, which narrows the field even further, and it harder to make the final four in football?  

Herbie Green wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

Interesting.

If you had to bet, Final Four or CFP...which one would we get to first?  And why?

How do you think a Penn State fan would bet right now?

Herbie Green wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

These are all good points ghost.

Basketball has 5 starters.  Football has 22.  It's also easier from that perspective.  

So how many bonus final four teams do you think this will all yield?  You might have to reduce it a little because basketball is played indoors and you don't have the weather as a potential  neautralizer.

NigelUno wrote:Since 1985, these seeds have reached the Final Four (with number of times):

11 - 3
10 - 1
9 - 1
8 - 5
7 - 2
6 - 3
5 - 6
4 - 13
3 - 14
2 - 28

So, 76 times a team other than a 1 seed has made the Final Four (since 1985).

Those teams would have reached the CFP a grand total of ZERO times, because the CFP only has 4 teams.

76 marbles > 0 marbles.  

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

So really the power 5 conferences are the only ones getting in, which narrows the field even further, and it harder to make the final four in football?  

Wait...you mean a shitload of teams are eliminated from the CFP because they aren't in a Power 5 conference or don't even play D1 football?

So, it's easier for ALL those teams to make a Final Four, right?

Not to mention at least 1/2 of the Power 5 teams...

kingstonlake wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

Wait...you mean a shitload of teams are eliminated from the CFP because they aren't in a Power 5 conference or don't even play D1 football?

So, it's easier for ALL those teams to make a Final Four, right?

Not to mention at least 1/2 of the Power 5 teams...

I'm assuming we are discussing this from an MSU perspective and how hard it is for them to reach the final four.

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

I'm assuming we are discussing this from an MSU perspective and how hard it is for them to reach the final four.

Sure. We can do that.

Is it easier for MSU to reach the Final Four or the CFP?

NigelUno wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:

How do you think a Penn State fan would bet right now?

You...ummm...kind of dodged the Michigan State question.

Penn State?  

I guess that's a step up from using Kansas, Purdue, and MSU.  Took you awhile though.

OK.  Let's address your epiphany Penn State and the rest of the Big Ten (using "right now"):

CFP:
OSU
UM
Penn State
Wisconsin
Nebraska (I'll even give you that one)

Final Four:
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan State
Rutgers
Minnesota
Iowa
Northwestern
Illinois
Purdue

Herbie Green wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

You...ummm...kind of dodged the Michigan State question.

Penn State?  

I guess that's a step up from using Kansas, Purdue, and MSU.  Took you awhile though.

OK.  Let's address your epiphany Penn State and the rest of the Big Ten (using "right now"):

CFP:
OSU
UM
Penn State
Wisconsin
Nebraska (I'll even give you that one)

Final Four:
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan State
Rutgers
Minnesota
Iowa
Northwestern
Illinois
Purdue

You can't really say "right now" when the football season is almost over but I will do this for entertainment purposes.

CFP
OSU .5
UM .25
Penn State .25
Wisconsin .25
Nebraska (I'll even give you that one) .01

Expected number of final four teams = 1.26  

Final Four:
Indiana .15
Maryland .05
Michigan State .1
Rutgers .01
Minnesota .01
Iowa .01
Northwestern .01
Illinois .01
Purdue .13
Wisconsin .15 (you forgot them)

Expected # of final four teams = 0.63

Thus, it is twice as hard for a Big Ten team to make it in basketball as football "right now"

Herbie Green wrote:
How do you think a Penn State fan would bet right now?

Herbie Green wrote:
You can't really say "right now" when the football season is almost over....

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:

You can't really say "right now" when the football season is almost over but I will do this for entertainment purposes.

CFP
OSU .5
UM .25
Penn State .25
Wisconsin .25
Nebraska (I'll even give you that one) .01

Expected number of final four teams = 1.26  

Final Four:
Indiana .15
Maryland .05
Michigan State .1
Rutgers .01
Minnesota .01
Iowa .01
Northwestern .01
Illinois .01
Purdue .13
Wisconsin .15 (you forgot them)

Expected # of final four teams = 0.63

Thus, it is twice as hard for a Big Ten team to make it in basketball as football "right now"

#MathGenius

NigelUno wrote:

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

#MathGenius

The reality is it's easier for ALL of the little guys (as Herbie admitted) to make the Final Four.  That includes ALL of the podunk conference teams who don't even play D1 football, and all of the mid-major conference teams.

The same is true for at least 1/2 of the Power 5 teams.  1/2 is being generous.  2/3 or 3/4 is probably closer.

No amount of marble math talk can change reality.

Herbie Green wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

The reality is it's easier for ALL of the little guys (as Herbie admitted) to make the Final Four.  That includes ALL of the podunk conference teams who don't even play D1 football, and all of the mid-major conference teams.

The same is true for at least 1/2 of the Power 5 teams.  1/2 is being generous.  2/3 or 3/4 is probably closer.

No amount of marble math talk can change reality.

I think you are starting to catch on. This is basically why it is harder in basketball because of the larger field. This is especially true for power 5 teams as you have now reduced the field to about 30 teams.
In basketball you have to compete against all 351 teams, or maybe only half of them since the requirement is that they are .500 teams.

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

DWags wrote:It's fucking hard to get to the final four in either sport. I can't imagine one school ever getting to both in one calendar year.

optimist. We suck at everything now. Join reality!

Herbie Green wrote:Try this: Make two bags of marbles. In the first pile put in 347 red marbles and 4 blue ones. In the 2nd one put in 124 red marbles and 4 blue ones. From which pile do you think you would have a better chance of picking a blue one? Try hundreds/thousands of trials to see if you guessed right.
You can even simulate what the college basketball tournament is like and first blindly pick 64 marbles from the bag of 351 marbles and then pick a marble. Will this increase your chances of getting a blue marble?

BleacherSwill wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:Try this: Make two bags of marbles. In the first pile put in 347 red marbles and 4 blue ones. In the 2nd one put in 124 red marbles and 4 blue ones. From which pile do you think you would have a better chance of picking a blue one? Try hundreds/thousands of trials to see if you guessed right.
You can even simulate what the college basketball tournament is like and first blindly pick 64 marbles from the bag of 351 marbles and then pick a marble. Will this increase your chances of getting a blue marble?

This is so dumb a remark you should be ashamed.

Herbie Green wrote:Moving the discussion along, I took a stab at assigning the odds of making a final four based on a couple of sub-groups:

Football
The top 64 - 8/128, 6.25%   (the "power 5")
The bottom 64 - 0/128, 0.00%

Basketball
The top 100 - 8/351, 2.28% (the power 5 + Big East, A10,etc)
The next 51 - 4/351, 1.14% (West Coast, Mtn West, etc)
The bottom 200 - 2/351, 0.57%

....Obviously this is not going to be "accurate" but maybe gives a decent rough idea.  You can assign whatever odds you want to each team, just remember that in the end it has to add up to exactly 4.0/128 and 4.0/351, the average odds of all teams making the final four.

Clarett's Folly wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:Moving the discussion along, I took a stab at assigning the odds of making a final four based on a couple of sub-groups:

Football
The top 64 - 8/128, 6.25%   (the "power 5")
The bottom 64 - 0/128, 0.00%

Basketball
The top 100 - 8/351, 2.28% (the power 5 + Big East, A10,etc)
The next 51 - 4/351, 1.14% (West Coast, Mtn West, etc)
The bottom 200 - 2/351, 0.57%

....Obviously this is not going to be "accurate" but maybe gives a decent rough idea.  You can assign whatever odds you want to each team, just remember that in the end it has to add up to exactly 4.0/128 and 4.0/351, the average odds of all teams making the final four.

You are bound and determined to beat this flawed analogy into the ground, aren't you?

Herbie Green wrote:Moving the discussion along, I took a stab at assigning the odds of making a final four based on a couple of sub-groups:

Football
The top 64 - 8/128, 6.25%   (the "power 5")
The bottom 64 - 0/128, 0.00%

Basketball
The top 100 - 8/351, 2.28% (the power 5 + Big East, A10,etc)
The next 51 - 4/351, 1.14% (West Coast, Mtn West, etc)
The bottom 200 - 2/351, 0.57%

....Obviously this is not going to be "accurate" but maybe gives a decent rough idea.  You can assign whatever odds you want to each team, just remember that in the end it has to add up to exactly 4.0/128 and 4.0/351, the average odds of all teams making the final four.

Clarett's Folly wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:Moving the discussion along, I took a stab at assigning the odds of making a final four based on a couple of sub-groups:

Football
The top 64 - 8/128, 6.25%   (the "power 5")
The bottom 64 - 0/128, 0.00%

Basketball
The top 100 - 8/351, 2.28% (the power 5 + Big East, A10,etc)
The next 51 - 4/351, 1.14% (West Coast, Mtn West, etc)
The bottom 200 - 2/351, 0.57%

....Obviously this is not going to be "accurate" but maybe gives a decent rough idea.  You can assign whatever odds you want to each team, just remember that in the end it has to add up to exactly 4.0/128 and 4.0/351, the average odds of all teams making the final four.

You are bound and determined to beat this flawed analogy into the ground, aren't you?

Herbie Green wrote:

Clarett's Folly wrote:

You are bound and determined to beat this flawed analogy into the ground, aren't you?

I think it is actually an interesting discussion.  I am trying to move on from the "flawed analogy" (mathematical given) that was beaten into the ground.

Do you have anything to add to the discussion?

I will help you - earlier you said I was an idiot for saying Western had 0% odds, which I gave them again here. What do you think their odds really should be?

Herbie Green wrote:Update - One Big ten team made the football final four and zero Big Ten teams made the basketball final four

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:Update - One Big ten team made the football final four and zero Big Ten teams made the basketball final four

Thanks!

I don't get it. But thanks!

DWags wrote:

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Thanks!

I don't get it. But thanks!

Me either. But hey, one big ten basketball team crashed in a plane and not one big ten football team crashed in a plane all season.