B1G mailbag: Is playoff worth it for Penn State if it means 'Bama?

There's a long list of teams that have been destroyed by Nick Saban's Alabama squad, we aren't the only program this has happened to.

I'd rather make it to the playoffs than not.

NigelUno wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:

This doesn't make any sense because you are arbitrarily picking a point at the end of the season.
I can do that.  Let me know when one of the top four ranked teams in college football in the final playoff committee's ranking doesn't make the final four.  Does a #1 seed in the basketball tournament guarantee a final four?

Again...that argument proves my point.

If a #1 seed guaranteed a spot in the Final Four, then it would be just like the CFP.

So it is harder to make the final four if you have a 100% chance of making it?

Ok. Let's make this easy.

How many teams play football at the college football playoff eligible level, Nigel?

List of teams that have been embarrassed by Nick Saban's Crimson Tide:

ND
USC
UofM
Auburn
LSU
Florida

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

So what your saying is it's very hard to make the final four in basketball if you're a one seed?

I think what I'm saying is that teams other than 1 seeds can make the Final Four. I think I've been pretty clear in saying that.

How many teams does MSU football compete against to make the final four football playoff?

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

How many teams does MSU football compete against to make the final four football playoff?

MSU had to win the Big Ten to make the CFP. A requirement which obviously does not exist to get to the Final Four.

How many teams does MSU football compete against to get to the final four playoff?

Outcome of a single game;
Win =0.5
Win or lose (lose) = 1.00
Minimum number of games needed to reach goal (CFP or FF);
Football = 11
(0.5)^11 = 0.0004
Basketball = 8 (4 conference tourney, 4 NCAA tourney)
(0.5)^8 = 0.0039
It's easier to make the basketball FF than the CFP.

Clarett's Folly wrote:Outcome of a single game;
Win =0.5
Win or lose (lose) = 1.00
Minimum number of games needed to reach goal (CFP or FF);
Football = 11
(0.5)^11 = 0.0004
Basketball = 8 (4 conference tourney, 4 NCAA tourney)
(0.5)^8 = 0.0039
It's easier to make the basketball FF than the CFP.

You left out the base line amount of regular season wins required to get in the tournament

NigelUno wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:

So it is harder to make the final four if you have a 100% chance of making it?

Wut?

If the Final Four only had 4 teams, then (comparably) those teams would have be conference champs (like in football). That requirement obviously doesn't exist with respect to basketball, which is why .500 teams can make the Final Four.

Real world. Not marbles.

It is all marbles. You can line them up, give them weights, put them in conferences, have early picks to declare conference champions or field 64 team tournaments. Nothing is going to change the fact that there will be exactly four teams in a final four every single time.

Clarett's Folly wrote:Outcome of a single game;
Win =0.5
Win or lose (lose) = 1.00
Minimum number of games needed to reach goal (CFP or FF);
Football = 11
(0.5)^11 = 0.0004
Basketball = 8 (4 conference tourney, 4 NCAA tourney)
(0.5)^8 = 0.0039
It's easier to make the basketball FF than the CFP.

You don't even have to win the conference tournament, so the odds of making it are 0.5^4 =.0625, which by some crazy coincidence is exactly equal to 4 divided by 64.

kingstonlake wrote:

Clarett's Folly wrote:Outcome of a single game;
Win =0.5
Win or lose (lose) = 1.00
Minimum number of games needed to reach goal (CFP or FF);
Football = 11
(0.5)^11 = 0.0004
Basketball = 8 (4 conference tourney, 4 NCAA tourney)
(0.5)^8 = 0.0039
It's easier to make the basketball FF than the CFP.

You left out the base line amount of regular season wins required to get in the tournament

You can get in with zero regular season wins provided you win your conference tourney. Granted it's never happened before but the possibility does exist.

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

How many teams does MSU football compete against to get to the final four playoff?

The other 13 teams in the Big Ten.  If they win the Big Ten, they get in the CFP.

When did that rule go into effect?

Ok, lets assume there are only four conferences to make things simple.

Problem A

In your football marble pile you have 128 marbles representing each school. Divide them into 4 equal piles of 32 marbles. Pick one marble from each of your 4 piles and these will be your four conference champions and final four.

Now for your basketball pile you have 357 marbles, representing each school. Randomly pick a new pile of 64 marbles. Now pick four marbles from the 64 marbles and this will be your basketball final four.

How many marbles did you end up with in each case? What are the chances of an individual marble making the final four under each of these scenarios?


Problem B (extra credit)

Take your football pile of 128 marbles and instead of dividing it into four conferences, split the pile in half by randomly picking 64 marbles to represent a 64 team tournament. Now randomly pick four marbles from this pile of 64 marbles.

How many marbles did you end up with?

How did the odds of making it to the final four marbles change when you took away the conference championship requirement and formed a 64 team tournament for which half of the marbles were elgible?

InTenSity wrote:

Clarett's Folly wrote:

You can get in with zero regular season wins provided you win your conference tourney. Granted it's never happened before but the possibility does exist.

If Calipari were a good coach, he should tank teh whole season, go 0-28 or however many games there are, then win the SEC Championship, and go on as a 13 seed to win the whole thing.

I would love that. It would be the ultimate "fuck you" to the NCAA.
UK fans have #eightgameseason trending on Twitter all season long. It would be beautiful.

Herbie Green wrote:Ok, lets assume there are only four conferences to make things simple.

Problem A

In your football marble pile you have 128 marbles representing each school. Divide them into 4 equal piles of 32 marbles. Pick one marble from each of your 4 piles and these will be your four conference champions and final four.

Now for your basketball pile you have 357 marbles, representing each school. Randomly pick a new pile of 64 marbles. Now pick four marbles from the 64 marbles and this will be your basketball final four.

How many marbles did you end up with in each case? What are the chances of an individual marble making the final four under each of these scenarios?


Problem B (extra credit)

Take your football pile of 128 marbles and instead of dividing it into four conferences, split the pile in half by randomly picking 64 marbles to represent a 64 team tournament. Now randomly pick four marbles from this pile of 64 marbles.

How many marbles did you end up with?

How did the odds of making it to the final four marbles change when you took away the conference championship requirement and formed a 64 team tournament for which half of the marbles were elgible?

Admit it, you're just a marble salesman and this is one big act.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
Don't ever bring something so stupid to my feet again.

Don't hold your breath, considering who the OP is.

Clarett's Folly wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:Ok, lets assume there are only four conferences to make things simple.

Problem A

In your football marble pile you have 128 marbles representing each school. Divide them into 4 equal piles of 32 marbles. Pick one marble from each of your 4 piles and these will be your four conference champions and final four.

Now for your basketball pile you have 357 marbles, representing each school. Randomly pick a new pile of 64 marbles. Now pick four marbles from the 64 marbles and this will be your basketball final four.

How many marbles did you end up with in each case? What are the chances of an individual marble making the final four under each of these scenarios?


Problem B (extra credit)

Take your football pile of 128 marbles and instead of dividing it into four conferences, split the pile in half by randomly picking 64 marbles to represent a 64 team tournament. Now randomly pick four marbles from this pile of 64 marbles.

How many marbles did you end up with?

How did the odds of making it to the final four marbles change when you took away the conference championship requirement and formed a 64 team tournament for which half of the marbles were elgible?

Admit it, you're just a marble salesman and this is one big act.

It will be very difficult to keep track of 357 different marbles, so I highly recommend the full set of Division 1 custom team embroidered marbles.

NigelUno wrote:

Herbie Green wrote:Ok, lets assume there are only four conferences to make things simple.

Problem A

In your football marble pile you have 128 marbles representing each school. Divide them into 4 equal piles of 32 marbles. Pick one marble from each of your 4 piles and these will be your four conference champions and final four.

Now for your basketball pile you have 357 marbles, representing each school. Randomly pick a new pile of 64 marbles. Now pick four marbles from the 64 marbles and this will be your basketball final four.

How many marbles did you end up with in each case? What are the chances of an individual marble making the final four under each of these scenarios?

You've lost your marbles.

You're assuming each team has an equal chance. That's not a real world scenario.

Well, the idea of my example is to simplify things to make the real world example easier to understand. If you want to add unequal odds then you are going to need millions of marbles. You could make a spreadsheet and give each of the 128 teams odds of making the final four. Just make sure that in the end that it adds up to a 100% chance of getting exactly four teams.

Nigel,

If I put $1,000,000 check wrote out to you in two baskets, one basket contained 128 other blank pieces of equal sized paper, the other contained 351 equal sized blank pieces of paper, and i said you get one chance and you can keep the check if you draw it out, which basket would you choose to draw from and why?

kingstonlake wrote:Nigel,

If I put $1,000,000 check wrote out to you in two baskets, one basket contained 128 other blank pieces of equal sized paper, the other contained 351 equal sized blank pieces of paper, and i said you get one chance and you can keep the check if you draw it out, which basket would you choose to draw from and why?

Are CFP and FF teams drawn from random out of the entire pool of participants?

kingstonlake wrote:Nigel,

If I put $1,000,000 check wrote out to you in two baskets, one basket contained 128 other blank pieces of equal sized paper, the other contained 351 equal sized blank pieces of paper, and i said you get one chance and you can keep the check if you draw it out, which basket would you choose to draw from and why?

"I would pick from the pile of 351 because there are more pieces of paper that could be winners"

Clarett's Folly wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:Nigel,

If I put $1,000,000 check wrote out to you in two baskets, one basket contained 128 other blank pieces of equal sized paper, the other contained 351 equal sized blank pieces of paper, and i said you get one chance and you can keep the check if you draw it out, which basket would you choose to draw from and why?

Are CFP and FF teams drawn from random out of the entire pool of participants?

No, in football you pick your own schedule, make it as hard or easy as you like, play maybe 2-3 real games and then are voted in. In basketball its kinda the same way except you actually play 4 games in a row against real opponents in order to make the final four. (in addition to your regular season schedule)

Clarett's Folly wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:Nigel,

If I put $1,000,000 check wrote out to you in two baskets, one basket contained 128 other blank pieces of equal sized paper, the other contained 351 equal sized blank pieces of paper, and i said you get one chance and you can keep the check if you draw it out, which basket would you choose to draw from and why?

Are CFP and FF teams drawn from random out of the entire pool of participants?

In effect, yes, on average.

For a Big Ten team the odds are better in football than in basketball. For a non-power 5 team the odds are better in basketball. Western Michigan is going to prove they had a zero percent chance of making the football final four.

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

No, in football you pick your own schedule, make it as hard or easy as you like, play maybe 2-3 real games and then are voted in. In basketball its kinda the same way except you actually play 4 games in a row against real opponents in order to make the final four. (in addition to your regular season schedule)

Do any .500 teams have a chance to play in the CFP? Do any .500 teams not only have a chance to make the Final Four, but actually make the Final Four?

Are you saying MSU didn't play a real opponent in the Big Ten Championship Football Game last year? Or a real opponent in Ohio State?

Do you understand what "2-3 real opponents a year" means?

Do any of the 4 teams in the CFP play the 5th, 9th, 13th, and 17th, ranked teams in consecutive games in order to play their way into the final 4?

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

How many teams does MSU football compete against to get to the final four playoff?

The other 13 teams in the Big Ten. If they win the Big Ten, they get in the CFP.

So MSU's odds were then 1/14 of making the final four.

Note that there are 16 teams in a region of the basketball tournament which you have to qualify for by being one of the top 64 out of 357 teams.

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

Do you understand what "2-3 real opponents a year" means?

Do any of the 4 teams in the CFP play the 5th, 9th, 13th, and 17th, ranked teams in consecutive games in order to play their way into the final 4?  

If the MSU football team loses to 2-3 real opponents a year, they're not making the CFP.

And last year MSU played Oregon, UM, OSU, and Iowa.  Both OSU and Iowa were Top 4 when MSU played them.

If MSU Basketball loses to Arizona, Kentucky, and Duke...they still have a chance at the Final Four.  

And your second question has an implication of an expanded playoff for football.  If it was an 8 team playoff, or a 16 team playoff...would teams (other than the Top 4) have a better chance of making the CFP Final Four?

Thus proving how hard it is to actually make it to the final four.  You actually have to play 4 games against quality opponents to get into the final four.  You can't rely on a weak non conference schedule, play 2-3 real opponents, and get in.  The tournament is brutal.  You have 24 hours in 2 of the 4 games to put a game plan together to beat phenomenal teams.  Not seven days or in the case of the CFP, a month.

Your own words were that all State has to do is be better than the other 11 in the conference and theyre in. lol

NigelUno wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:

How many teams does MSU football compete against to get to the final four playoff?

The other 13 teams in the Big Ten. If they win the Big Ten, they get in the CFP.

Would MSU football's chances of making the final four been better last year if they had to go into a 16 team tournament?

How did the Big Ten basketball champion, Indiana, do in the field of 64 teams? They must have made it to the final four easily because all those .500 teams can do it.