Notable Early MSU Football Spreads

by CrazySparty 2014-06-13, 16:35

@justcoverblog 1m
Michigan St is +13.5 at Oregon, but at home they are -1 against OSU, -8 against Nebraska and -7.5 against UM.

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** 2014-06-13, 16:39

Lock at Oregon, wouldn't touch OSU, -8 Lock MSU, -7.5 SUPER SUPER LOCK

by CrazySparty 2014-06-13, 16:42

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Lock at Oregon, wouldn't touch OSU, -8 Lock MSU, -7.5 SUPER SUPER LOCK

+13.5 at Oregon is easy money. Even when you factor 3 points as road team, you're still saying Oregon -10.5 neutral site. Don't see it.

by dubie7006 2014-06-13, 16:43

Oregon:

Notable Early MSU Football Spreads Post-2617-Where-has-all-the-money-in-the-gGt3

OSU:

Notable Early MSU Football Spreads Attachment

Nebraska:

scUM:

BTW: OP, do you know where they got these lines from? I'm in the market...

by **WhiteBoyHatcher** 2014-06-13, 16:45

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Lock at Oregon, wouldn't touch OSU, -8 Lock MSU, -7.5 SUPER SUPER LOCK

First rule of handicapping. Never ever ever use the "L" word.

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** 2014-06-13, 16:47

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:

First rule of handicapping. Never ever ever use the "L" word.

Oh, I know. You're talking to someone who lost a lot of $ on that fucking UCONN basketball game.

by CrazySparty 2014-06-13, 16:48

dubie7006 wrote:

BTW: OP, do you know where they got these lines from? I'm in the market...

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/12/t/965376.aspx

Oh, and...

jamie mac @justcoverblog · 9m
Dont go spending *all* your summer cash on that +13.5 line against the Ducks, MSU fans. Budget wisely. At least leave a Faygo Fund.

Notable Early MSU Football Spreads 502811600

Notable Early MSU Football Spreads 502811600

by dubie7006 2014-06-13, 16:54

CrazySparty wrote:

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/12/t/965376.aspx

Oh, and...

jamie mac @justcoverblog · 9m
Dont go spending *all* your summer cash on that +13.5 line against the Ducks, MSU fans. Budget wisely. At least leave a Faygo Fund.

Damn...so I have to figure out a way to get to Vegas pronto. Might be doable.

by **Wally Fairway** 2014-06-13, 16:56

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:

First rule of handicapping. Never ever ever use the "L" word.

troof

and I'm waiting for Dell Dude to make his picks as that always helps me decide

by dubie7006 2014-06-13, 16:57

Wally Fairway wrote:

troof

and I'm waiting for Dell Dude to make his picks as that always helps me decide

Who?

by Stoops21 2014-06-13, 17:00

How are we 2 td underdogs?

by **Wally Fairway** 2014-06-13, 17:03

dubie7006 wrote:
Who?

https://spartanswill.forumotion.com/u278

by SpartanMikey 2014-06-13, 17:04

Wow, 13.5?! That's absolutely nuts.

by Rodeo Burger 2014-06-13, 17:31

I'd bet Oregon, OSU and UM at these lines. I think Nebraska might have something this year, I wouldn't touch that game until I saw how much Pelini is going to go Pelini this year.

by JEK 2014-06-13, 19:59

I like the Oregon and UM action. Wouldn't touch the other two.

by **SeeRockCity** 2014-06-13, 22:53

I guess I get to play devils advocate.

Wouldn't touch Oregon, we ALWAYS start slow and that's a long way to go plus three time zones. No way.

I'll take all three home games.

by CrazySparty 2014-06-14, 01:20

SeeRockCity wrote:I guess I get to play devils advocate.

Wouldn't touch Oregon, we ALWAYS start slow and that's a long way to go plus three time zones. No way.

I'll take all three home games.

I somewhat understand not touching Oregon. I do not understand you're willingness to go anywhere near that OSU line.

by dubie7006 2014-06-14, 01:33

CrazySparty wrote:

I somewhat understand not touching Oregon. I do not understand you're willingness to go anywhere near that OSU line.

Just talked to my buddy that is going to be putting money in for me on his upcoming Vegas trip, and he said he's taking that one, too. I'm all for confidence, but there's definitely a possibility we come up short there. I can see both angles.

by RBW Spartan 2014-06-14, 07:38

The MSU ML for the Oregon game is an insane value bet.

I only think we have about a 40% chance of winning, but you should be able to get at least +300 on that.

by CrazySparty 2014-06-14, 09:43

dubie7006 wrote:

Just talked to my buddy that is going to be putting money in for me on his upcoming Vegas trip, and he said he's taking that one, too. I'm all for confidence, but there's definitely a possibility we come up short there. I can see both angles.

I somewhat understand not touching the Oregon line since we lost several key starters on defense, it's on the road, on the west coast, early in the season(Meaning our new starters' only experience will be against Jacksonville State).

With OSU, you're basically calling the game a toss-up. It's a toss-up because they've lost as much on offense as we have on defense. However, both coaching staffs have proven they reload more than they rebuild on those respective sides of the ball. Too many unknowns for me to even consider betting on it.

by **SeeRockCity** 2014-06-14, 10:42

CrazySparty wrote:
dubie7006 wrote:

Just talked to my buddy that is going to be putting money in for me on his upcoming Vegas trip, and he said he's taking that one, too. I'm all for confidence, but there's definitely a possibility we come up short there. I can see both angles.

I somewhat understand not touching the Oregon line since we lost several key starters on defense, it's on the road, on the west coast, early in the season(Meaning our new starters' only experience will be against Jacksonville State).

With OSU, you're basically calling the game a toss-up. It's a toss-up because they've lost as much on offense as we have on defense. However, both coaching staffs have proven they reload more than they rebuild on those respective sides of the ball. Too many unknowns for me to even consider betting on it.

With the exception of the Charlie Brown year, we always seem to find a way to win close games at home.

by Punisher98 2014-06-14, 11:28

SeeRockCity wrote:I guess I get to play devils advocate.

Wouldn't touch Oregon, we ALWAYS start slow and that's a long way to go plus three time zones. No way.

I'll take all three home games.

Basically for that spread to make any sort of sense it would have to be a 35-21 type of game.

I just don't see them running wild on our defense.

I just don't see them keeping our offense low scoring.

by Sponge Worthy 2014-06-14, 12:32

Punisher98 wrote:

Basically for that spread to make any sort of sense it would have to be a 35-21 type of game.

I just don't see them running wild on our defense.

I just don't see them keeping our offense low scoring.

I concur..also, why din't Indian Casinos have sports books!!??

by JEK 2014-06-14, 12:52

RBW Spartan wrote:The MSU ML for the Oregon game is an insane value bet.

I only think we have about a 40% chance of winning, but you should be able to get at least +300 on that.

I agree. I would rather place a small amount on the ML than a larger amount on the spread.

It's just so tough to win on the road in college football, especially in unfamiliar territory. Autzen will be tough as hell.

by Jethro Bodeen 2014-06-15, 13:02

Why is Oregon seen as such hot shit? Defensive coordinators are catching up to their offense.

by RBW Spartan 2014-06-15, 14:42

JEK wrote:

I agree. I would rather place a small amount on the ML than a larger amount on the spread.

It's just so tough to win on the road in college football, especially in unfamiliar territory. Autzen will be tough as hell.

According to google, at 13.5, you could get +480 on MSU, or basically 5:1 odds.

I have MSU at a 40%. but even if you say 25%, it's still a good value bet.

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2014-06-16, 10:35

CrazySparty wrote:@justcoverblog 1m
Michigan St is +13.5 at Oregon, but at home they are -1 against OSU, -8 against Nebraska and -7.5 against UM.

I'm going to book MSU with the points at Oregon now - I don't think it will cross 14. I will take MSU and give the points to OSU, Nebraska and UM.

Then come back later and try to middle it when the lines are adjusted. I could easily see MSU -3.5 vs OSU and double digit favs over Nebraska and UM.

The opportunity for teasing to hit the middles are also in play.

I think the Oregon line will probably end at Oregon -11.

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2014-06-16, 11:21

SeeRockCity wrote:I guess I get to play devils advocate.

Wouldn't touch Oregon, we ALWAYS start slow and that's a long way to go plus three time zones. No way.

I'll take all three home games.

Michigan State in regular season west of the Rockies (in my lifetime):

Games I could find lines for:
August 30, 2008 at Cal. MSU +6.5 (OTS and SU LOSS) 38-31
December 4, 2004 at Hawaii. MSU -7 (OTS and SU LOSS) 41-38
September 5, 1998 at Oregon. MSU -2.5 (OTS and SU LOSS) 48-14. I remember that game line moved from Oregon -1 to MSU favored that morning. I took the Ducks.
September 13, 1986 at Arizona State. MSU +4.5 (OTS WIN / SU LOSS) 20-17

1-3 OTS and 0-4 SU

No spread available:
September 8, 1984 at Colorado: MSU 24 Colorado 21 (Colorado was terrible - it was Perles' second year it was probably a pick em game - I'll give MSU at cover)
September 20, 1980 at Oregon: Oregon 48 MSU 14 (I'm going to say Oregon covered)
September 29, 1978 at Southern Cal: USC 30 MSU 9 (MSU's third game Ed Smith was hurt and USC was loaded and won the national title that year. It was probably USC -22 - I will give MSU cover)
September 28, 1974 at UCLA: UCLA 56 MSU 14 (I'm going to say UCLA covered)
September 30, 1972 at Southern Cal: USC 51 MSU 6 (I'm going to say USC covered)
September 19, 1970 at Washington: Washington 42 MSU 16 (I'm going to say Washington covered)

1-5 SU and probably 2-4 OTS

Total 1-9 SU and 3-7 OTS
So what does this prove? Not much except for the fact MSU doesn't go West in the regular season very often and when they do they tend to lose (and lose badly).

by Guest 2014-06-16, 12:39

CrazySparty wrote:@justcoverblog 1m
Michigan St is +13.5 at Oregon, but at home they are -1 against OSU, -8 against Nebraska and -7.5 against UM.

MSU Oregon tops Stewart Mandel's list of must see non conference games.

1. Michigan State at Oregon (Sept. 6, 6:30 p.m., FOX): The only thing better than an intersectional game between preseason top-10 teams is a contrast of polar opposite styles. Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Ducks' blur offense will face off with coordinator Pat Narduzzi's perennially stingy defense, which ranked No. 1 nationally following last season's Rose Bowl triumph. Meanwhile, underrated Spartans quarterback Connor Cook could provide a nice litmus test for an Oregon defense that loses longtime coordinator Nick Aliotti but returns All-America cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olumu.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20140616/most-anticipated-nonconference-games/#ixzz34oyBX8KA

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20140616/most-anticipated-nonconference-games/

by **Blanch32** 2014-06-16, 14:01

SeeRockCity wrote:I guess I get to play devils advocate.

Wouldn't touch Oregon, we ALWAYS start slow and that's a long way to go plus three time zones. No way.

I'll take all three home games.

To win? You betcha! No not lose by more than 2 TDs your insane!!

Roushar is no longer the oc and we got a tested qb. That alone makes this one a two possession game. Keep in mind I believe our offensive strategy will be to eat clock.

by **Giant Moose** 2014-06-16, 14:06

Dr. Strangelove wrote:So what does this prove? Not much except for the fact MSU doesn't go West in the regular season very often and when they do they tend to lose (and lose badly).

I see that most of the games were in our 40-year string of mediocrity. I'd be willing to guess that most of those MSU teams lost a lot in the Midwest, too.

by JEK 2014-06-16, 14:27

Blanch32 wrote:

To win? You betcha! No not lose by more than 2 TDs your insane!!

Roushar is no longer the oc and we got a tested qb. That alone makes this one a two possession game. Keep in mind I believe our offensive strategy will be to eat clock.

Cook is the key to winning this game. They say Autzen is the loudest stadium in the country by decibel. Can't afford many false starts and penalties on offense. He has to stay poised in that environment. I agree that Warner will look to pound the ball as much as possible but Cook will need to make big throws on 3rd down...which is his specialty. This could be a big game for Price and Lyles. Oregon's LBs are smallish and inexperienced.

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** 2014-06-16, 14:31

Is there anyway to bet ML on Oregon game right now or?

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2014-06-16, 14:46

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Is there anyway to bet ML on Oregon game right now or?

Doubtful.

These are classified as "Games of the Year" lines - yes there are about 50 "games of the year" - it's betting logic. Like 5 star diamond platinum locks.

Anyway, these games are capped with max bets (probably $1000) but I'm not 100 percent on that and only on the spread being offered.

Moneylines are generally only offered in the week prior to the game being played.

by CrazySparty 2014-06-19, 19:17

Bump. Bovada has money lines up for 4-team playoff chances.

MSU +225 to make the playoff, -350 to miss out.

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/college-football-team-props.jsp

Connor Cook also 28/1 odds to win the Heisman

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2014-06-19, 21:17

I play at sportsbook.ag

MSU +3000 for natl title

Connor Cook +2800 for Heisman

They can be slow in putting futures up there but I like the interface and never had a problem getting paid

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