Over / Under B1G win totals discussion

sports gambling .. if i could make $ gambling for a living that's all i would do. No sex, no nothing. Anyways ... thoughts on the totals posted by Betus. Regular season only. Lots of respect for MSU and OSU ... not much for SCum.

MSU 9 1/2

SCum 7 1/2 (surprised that it wasn't 8)

O$U 10 1/2

Wiscy 9 1/2

Iowa 8

'braska 8
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9 1/2 ... basically a loss vs. Oregon and then you can only afford one more loss to still cover. I like the bet still but i was hoping that it was set at 9.

Honestly does not seem like a good bet. You figure you are starting out with almost 2 losses between Oregon and then OsU and @ PSU. Not saying that will happen but more from a probabilistic standpoint. MSU has to come pretty close to repeating last year's glory to win that. I will be rooting for that but wouldn't bet on it.

Herbie Green wrote:Honestly does not seem like a good bet.  You figure you are starting out with almost 2 losses between Oregon and then OsU and @ PSU.  Not saying that will happen but more from a probabilistic standpoint.  MSU has to come pretty close to repeating last year's glory to win that.  I will be rooting for that but wouldn't bet on it.

  

Michigan over 7.5 looks good. I hope I'm wrong.

What is the big joke? Asking ANY team in a major conference to go 7-1 is a lot to ask. Things are looking good but it is not like we can just poop out another undefeated season. If MSU covers that they will be one of the biggest powers in college football. 8.5 to 9.0 is a more realistic number.

steveschneider wrote:Michigan over 7.5 looks good. I hope I'm wrong.

Agreed. They play well against ND but even 5-3 looks like a shoe in. Anything worse than 8-4 and the coach is fired or should be. Basically you are talking about a 50% chance of a disaster scenario. Actually that sounds about right.

Why the hell do people think psu will be a tough game? That's a four to five win team that can't run the ball and can't play defense. They have a really good qb with no one to throw to. Sounds like purdue but a little bit better.

Hackenberg is a great player, but msu will be paying for something that day and psu won't even have their students there. Easy win in my book.

Ass Dan wrote:Why the hell do people think psu will be a tough game? That's a four to five win team that can't run the ball and can't play defense. They have a really good qb with no one to throw to. Sounds like purdue but a little bit better.

Hackenberg is a great player, but msu will be paying for something that day and psu won't even have their students there. Easy win in my book.

These experts must buy into all the bull shit that new coach has been spewing.

steveschneider wrote:

These experts must buy into all the bull shit that new coach has been spewing.

People tend to see @Penn state and poop their pants, psu has been a middling team since joepa and in their one game against a good team lost 63-7 last year. They gave up 40 to Michigan and went to overtime against Illinois at home last year. Plus they lose a ton of depth this year. They're bad.

Couple that with cmd's record in November, no way that's a loss

Ass Dan wrote:

People tend to see @Penn state and poop their pants, psu has been a middling team since joepa and in their one game against a good team lost 63-7 last year. They gave up 40 to Michigan and went to overtime against Illinois at home last year. Plus they lose a ton of depth this year. They're bad.

Couple that with cmd's record in November, no way that's a loss

like what you're saying. Students are out for the game? msu wasn't on the student ticket??

green night wrote:

like what you're saying. Students are out for the game? msu wasn't on the student ticket??

I went to the Wisconsin psu game couple years ago at happy Valley, gf is a psu fan and I had always wanted to go. Student section was about half full and didn't get to that point until the second quarter.

Wisco kept the fans in the game by playing shitty but it was colder than hell and if they were down by two or three scores, we were getting out of there. It was a tight game and about a quarter of the fans had left by the start of overtime.

Ass Dan wrote:

I went to the Wisconsin psu game couple years ago at happy Valley, gf is a psu fan and I had always wanted to go. Student section was about half full and didn't get to that point until the second quarter.

Wisco kept the fans in the game by playing shitty but it was colder than hell and if they were down by two or three scores, we were getting out of there. It was a tight game and about a quarter of the fans had left by the start of overtime.

That game was after thanksgiving, same as this upcoming one

I remember being at the game over thanksgiving when one of Saban’s shit pile teams beat PSU 49-14.

steveschneider wrote:Michigan over 7.5 looks good. I hope I'm wrong.

agree with this, cake schedule for the most part, hope those douchers **** up though

Ass Dan wrote:Why the hell do people think psu will be a tough game? That's a four to five win team that can't run the ball and can't play defense. They have a really good qb with no one to throw to. Sounds like purdue but a little bit better.

Hackenberg is a great player, but msu will be paying for something that day and psu won't even have their students there. Easy win in my book.

I've heard this doom and gloom prediction for Penn State the last two years, and it has yet to happen.

They've won 8 and 7 games respectively despite their sanctions. If their FG kicker was remotely competent, they might have had even more. They now have a coach who succeeded in the SEC despite being at Vanderbilt.

As for the line about MSU "playing for something", you don't think PSU will be playing for something as well? We're their bowl game for crying out loud. You don't think PSU would get up to potentially kill MSU's chances of going to Indy?

I wonder if that sort of mentality is what Wisconsin had each of the last two years when they lost o PSU to end their regular season.

CrazySparty wrote:

I've heard this doom and gloom prediction for Penn State the last two years, and it has yet to happen.

They've won 8 and 7 games respectively despite their sanctions. If their FG kicker was remotely competent, they might have had even more. They now have a coach who succeeded in the SEC despite being at Vanderbilt.

As for the line about MSU "playing for something", you don't think PSU will be playing for something as well? We're their bowl game for crying out loud. You don't think PSU would get up to potentially kill MSU's chances of going to Indy?

I wonder if that sort of mentality is what Wisconsin had each of the last two years when they lost o PSU to end their regular season.

So much for those sanctions being like "a slow death penalty"   

green night wrote:sports gambling .. if i could make $ gambling for a living that's all i would do.   No sex, no nothing.   Anyways ... thoughts on the totals posted by Betus.  Regular season only.   Lots of respect for MSU and OSU ... not much for SCum.  

MSU 9 1/2

SCum 7 1/2 (surprised that it wasn't 8)  

O$U  10 1/2

Wiscy 9 1/2

Iowa 8

'braska 8
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9 1/2 ... basically a loss vs. Oregon and then you can only afford one more loss to still cover.   I like the bet still but i was hoping that it was set at 9.  

Over on MSU. Easy money (saying we have a 50/50 chance of winning zero of UNL, OSU, Oregon)
Over on Michigan (but I'm not convinced, and I wouldn't bet on it)
Over on OSU (season is one game)
Stay away from Wisky. I would probably take over if forced, but it's a perfect line
OVER on Iowa - this is the easiest money in the world
Over on Nebraska. They're not going 7-5; so it's a push or a win.

As for PSU, this is the year the sanctions are going to hurt; they have little depth, and that's going to be exploited by the end of the season. I'm still worried, but I like us in that game.

CrazySparty wrote:

I've heard this doom and gloom prediction for Penn State the last two years, and it has yet to happen.

They've won 8 and 7 games respectively despite their sanctions. If their FG kicker was remotely competent, they might have had even more. They now have a coach who succeeded in the SEC despite being at Vanderbilt.

As for the line about MSU "playing for something", you don't think PSU will be playing for something as well? We're their bowl game for crying out loud. You don't think PSU would get up to potentially kill MSU's chances of going to Indy?

I wonder if that sort of mentality is what Wisconsin had each of the last two years when they lost o PSU to end their regular season.

If you look at their line depth on both ends, your fears of psu upsetting anyone are quick to subside. They have serious trouble defending the pass and their offensive guru of a head coach, who I thought was fantastic in his two years there, is gone.

Franklin beats bunch of nobodies in the sec and didn't win shit. Don't get too concerned. Also, Ohio state is their "bowl game". That'll be their white out, night game, blow your load game for them.

They'll get up for a good opponent but the team won't be competitive on the level you're expecting and when msu goes up by two scores they'll come back down to earth.

I've watched a lot of psu football over the past few years, they're just going to really struggle this year, then ascend back to 8-9 win seasons.

Three_Putt_Par wrote:

So much for those sanctions being like "a slow death penalty"   

yep .... the whole this is nearly as bad as death penalty was total bs. I will say this ... bill O' did a great job keeping those players when they could have transferred the first year. That was big. The other thing with bill is he was a good coach. Won some close games (minus the FG kicker) ... team played hard.