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Inflation continues on record pace.

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Post by Travis of the Cosmos 2023-12-28, 17:52

Zurn wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Also, you’re getting extra shit, which is what I said in the post. You really are the worlds worst at this shit aren’t you

No, this is what you said:

I just went to subways site and the only way I can get a foot long sub (too much food) to be over $15 is if I get double meat (gross) and add shit like bacon and pepperoni.

Yes, if you get extras it costs $15. You got extras. This is not hard.
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Post by sεяεηιτλ 2023-12-28, 20:28

Zurn wrote:
sεяεηιτλ wrote:

The funny thing is these price hikes will be short lived as competition will re-drive prices down.  .

What's the timeline for my Subway footlong to be less than $15?    I appreciate your confidence in free market economics but even the free market has to deal with a devalued dollar.

Don't like it? don't eat at subway and you'll be doing your part to drive the subway footlong back down to earth from their price gouging ways. Teach those suits a lesson, man, Make america great again.
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Post by sεяεηιτλ 2023-12-28, 20:33

Zurn wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:I just went to subways site and the only way I can get a foot long sub (too much food) to be over $15 is if I get double meat (gross) and add shit like bacon and pepperoni. Maybe the cost of your subway order is a you problem.

Inflation continues on record pace.   - Page 10 Image_10

What ever happened to the 5 dollar footlong?

Why would you pay anything near 15 dollars for any subway sandwich? They are disgusting. Teach them a capitalist lesson and avoid.
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Post by AvgMSUJoe 2023-12-28, 22:14

[tw]1740564234008699126[/tw]
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Post by Turtleneck 2023-12-28, 22:41

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
Zurn wrote:

No, this is what you said:

I just went to subways site and the only way I can get a foot long sub (too much food) to be over $15 is if I get double meat (gross) and add shit like bacon and pepperoni.

Yes, if you get extras it costs $15. You got extras. This is not hard.

It's not your fault that you didn't specify cheese. Who thinks a person orders even more of the stale cheese Subway puts on their sandwiches?
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Post by Zurn 2023-12-28, 22:53

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
Zurn wrote:

No, this is what you said:

I just went to subways site and the only way I can get a foot long sub (too much food) to be over $15 is if I get double meat (gross) and add shit like bacon and pepperoni.

Yes, if you get extras it costs $15. You got extras. This is not hard.

I guess in your world a turkey and ham with added fresh mozzarella is same as double meat PLUS shit like bacon and pepperoni (and that would be the ONLY way to get over $15). Understandable why you would think inflation is simply excess profit.
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Post by Travis of the Cosmos 2023-12-28, 23:00

Zurn wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
Yes, if you get extras it costs $15. You got extras. This is not hard.

I guess in your world a turkey and ham with added fresh mozzarella is same as double meat PLUS shit like bacon and pepperoni (and that would be the ONLY way to get over $15).   Understandable why you would think inflation is simply excess profit.  
You know I don’t even know how much the double meat was, but I don’t think it was four dollars. I guess you’re right zurn, there was a different way, you could get a different extra added to the sandwich. Ya got me, good job.

You know you sound incredibly stupid, right? Like, you could just not stick to your guns on this silly $15 thing and just move on.
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Post by Turtleneck 2023-12-28, 23:09

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
Zurn wrote:

I guess in your world a turkey and ham with added fresh mozzarella is same as double meat PLUS shit like bacon and pepperoni (and that would be the ONLY way to get over $15).   Understandable why you would think inflation is simply excess profit.  
You know I don’t even know how much the double meat was, but I don’t think it was four dollars. I guess you’re right zurn, there was a different way, you could get a different extra added to the sandwich. Ya got me, good job.

You know you sound incredibly stupid, right? Like, you could just not stick to your guns on this silly $15 thing and just move on.

You new here?
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Post by Travis of the Cosmos 2023-12-29, 00:00

Turtleneck wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
You know I don’t even know how much the double meat was, but I don’t think it was four dollars. I guess you’re right zurn, there was a different way, you could get a different extra added to the sandwich. Ya got me, good job.

You know you sound incredibly stupid, right? Like, you could just not stick to your guns on this silly $15 thing and just move on.

You new here?
I keep trying to tell people that they can just let it go and no one will remember that one stupid post. But they just keep insisting on doubling and tripling down. Help me turtleneck. Get them to just not do it.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2023-12-29, 09:01

In 1776, British economist Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations, a book that laid out the principles that modern economies have operated under for centuries (with the exception of the Reagan Revolution years of 1981-2021). In addition to arguing for a strong domestic manufacturing base and high taxes on the wealthy...

https://hartmannreport.com/p/once-public-schools-are-largely-dead-ec4
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Post by Zurn 2023-12-29, 14:58

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
Zurn wrote:

I guess in your world a turkey and ham with added fresh mozzarella is same as double meat PLUS shit like bacon and pepperoni (and that would be the ONLY way to get over $15).   Understandable why you would think inflation is simply excess profit.  
You know I don’t even know how much the double meat was, but I don’t think it was four dollars. I guess you’re right zurn, there was a different way, you could get a different extra added to the sandwich. Ya got me, good job.

You know you sound incredibly stupid, right? Like, you could just not stick to your guns on this silly $15 thing and just move on.

What is your actual point Travis?   It seems like you are trying to deny the reality of inflation.  Why?  Because it reflects poorly on Biden?    I used the simple example of a sandwich now costing $15.   Somehow you felt it was necessary to not only deny that fact but to also accuse me of being some kind of double meat, bacon and pepperoni eating fat slob.   Just to be clear, I have nothing against pepperoni or bacon, I just wouldn't eat them together.
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Post by Turtleneck 2023-12-29, 15:25

Zurn wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
You know I don’t even know how much the double meat was, but I don’t think it was four dollars. I guess you’re right zurn, there was a different way, you could get a different extra added to the sandwich. Ya got me, good job.

You know you sound incredibly stupid, right? Like, you could just not stick to your guns on this silly $15 thing and just move on.

What is your actual point Travis?   It seems like you are trying to deny the reality of inflation.  Why?  Because it reflects poorly on Biden?    I used the simple example of a sandwich now costing $15.   Somehow you felt it was necessary to not only deny that fact but to also accuse me of being some kind of double meat, bacon and pepperoni eating fat slob.   Just to be clear, I have nothing against pepperoni or bacon, I just wouldn't eat them together.

But the sandwich was not a hypothetical, actually exists, and does not cost $15. Thus, invalidating all of your life's work.
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Post by Travis of the Cosmos 2023-12-29, 16:03

Zurn wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
You know I don’t even know how much the double meat was, but I don’t think it was four dollars. I guess you’re right zurn, there was a different way, you could get a different extra added to the sandwich. Ya got me, good job.

You know you sound incredibly stupid, right? Like, you could just not stick to your guns on this silly $15 thing and just move on.

What is your actual point Travis?   It seems like you are trying to deny the reality of inflation.  Why?  Because it reflects poorly on Biden?    I used the simple example of a sandwich now costing $15.   Somehow you felt it was necessary to not only deny that fact but to also accuse me of being some kind of double meat, bacon and pepperoni eating fat slob.   Just to be clear, I have nothing against pepperoni or bacon, I just wouldn't eat them together.
I’m calling you a liar, liar.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-01, 10:12

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
Zurn wrote:

What is your actual point Travis?   It seems like you are trying to deny the reality of inflation.  Why?  Because it reflects poorly on Biden?    I used the simple example of a sandwich now costing $15.   Somehow you felt it was necessary to not only deny that fact but to also accuse me of being some kind of double meat, bacon and pepperoni eating fat slob.   Just to be clear, I have nothing against pepperoni or bacon, I just wouldn't eat them together.
I’m calling you a liar, liar.

The sad thing is that he has a point if he would stop trying to overstate it.

The numbers say that the bottom groups in the workforce made out okay from 2020 to now, with the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic creating wage increases which outpaced inflation over that time. However, the upper levels, except for maybe the top 10% or so, saw inflation outpacing their wage increases. Overall, since the upper-level wages are a much higher percentage of the wage total it looks like inflation outpaced wages, but the nuance says it is a mixed bag.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-02, 08:20

This blog explores the interplay of wages, employment, and prices to unpack this dynamic. We offer four key conclusions:

Real wages have risen since before the pandemic across the income distribution. In particular, middle-income and lower-income households have seen their real earnings rise especially fast. And in the past 12 months, real wages overall have grown faster than they did in the pre-pandemic expansion.

Household purchasing power has increased as a result. In 2023, the median American worker can afford the same goods and services as they did in 2019, plus an additional $1,000 to spend or save—because median earnings rose faster than prices.

The U.S. economy now has over 2 million more jobs than pre-pandemic forecasters expected. Therefore, more and more workers are benefitting from increased purchasing power, thanks to the strong and resilient labor market.

This pattern of rising purchasing power is particularly American: other advanced economies have generally seen lower, and in many cases negative, real wage growth.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-purchasing-power-of-american-households
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-06, 10:04

Inflation continues on record pace.   - Page 10 Scree203

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/06/chart-wage-growth-beating-inflation

Judging by the chart a significant number of workers all through this bout of inflation have been outpacing inflation with their wages.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-11, 09:30

An underlying gauge of inflation, core CPI — which excludes energy and food costs — rose 0.3%, matching the prior month's pace. In the year through December, it's up 3.9% — down from the 4% rise in November.

Inflation is well below the peak reached in 2022. But a complete return to normal — with mild price increases that defined pre-pandemic times — might not happen as quickly as policymakers would like.

Bottom line - core inflation is still falling & the media is still comparing inflation today with inflation during the period from 2010 to 2020 when the neoliberal economics were suppressing the growth of the economy.  Prior to that period an inflation rate of 3% to 4% was normal.

eidt - this report breaks down where the inflation is happening and includes an explanation of one of the more controversial (disconnected from reality) parts of the CPI, equivalent housing costs.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-interest-rates-economy-federal-reserve-cf51946cbd00f89509a97ea041b515e6

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, though, so-called core prices rose just 0.3% month over month, unchanged from November’s increase. Core prices were up 3.9% from a year earlier — the mildest such pace since May 2021. Economists pay particular attention to core prices because, by excluding costs that typically jump around from month to month, they are seen as a better guide to the likely path of inflation.

Thursday’s figures reflected the outsize role that housing plays in the U.S. consumer price index — roughly a third of the index. A measure of homeownership alone makes up roughly 25% of it. The government measures homeownership costs by calculating how much rent a homeowner would likely charge if that home were actually being rented — a figure seen as equivalent to the cost of owning the property. Overall housing prices rose 0.5% from November to December. Rents were up 0.4%, homeownership 0.5%.

Over the past year, consumers have enjoyed some price declines for some individual items. Furniture and bedding prices are down 4%, for example. Men’s suits and coats are down 6%, televisions 10%, sporting goods nearly 3%, sausages nearly 4%.

The Federal Reserve, which began aggressively raising interest rates in March 2022 to try to slow the pace of price increases, wants to reduce year-over-year inflation to its 2% target level. And there are solid reasons for optimism that inflationary pressure will continue to recede in the coming months.

edit - the link below is even a more detailed breakdown of the inflation numbers but is TLTR

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/11/beneath-the-skin-of-cpi-inflation-december-not-in-the-mood-to-just-go-away/

edit - PPI fell in December

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

edit - price deflation...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/12/deflation-heres-where-prices-fell-in-december-2023-in-one-chart-.html

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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-15, 09:04

[tw]1746554059035742448[/tw]
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-17, 08:48

Americans overall have a surprising degree of satisfaction with their economic situation, according to findings from the Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.

Why it matters: That's in spite of dour views among certain subsets of the country — and in contrast to consumer sentiment polls that remain stubbornly weak, partly because of the lingering effects of 2022's inflation.

The Axios Vibes poll has found that when asked about their own financial condition, or that of their local community, Americans are characteristically optimistic.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances

...political affiliation influences the responses that Republicans, in particular, give when they're asked about the economy.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-18, 09:09

This probably will have an effect on material goods pricing.

PANAMA CITY (AP) — A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes.

https://apnews.com/article/panama-canal-global-trade-routes-drought-climate-change-bd76a77825a2e8e751a24346f8fd54a9
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Post by GRR Spartan 2024-01-18, 10:30

There has been wage inflation so those folks making and serving your subs, making your cheeseburgers, frying your chicken sandwiches are making $12-$15 instead of the $7.5 -$10 per hour.

Labor rates in the service industry especially the fast food sector expose a disconnect between consumers and the companies along with their franchisees who have depended on low wage labor for decades.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-20, 09:09

GRR Spartan wrote:There has been wage inflation so those folks making and serving your subs, making your cheeseburgers, frying your chicken sandwiches are making $12-$15 instead of the $7.5 -$10 per hour.

Labor rates in the service industry especially the fast food sector expose a disconnect between consumers and the companies along with their franchisees who have depended on low wage labor for decades.

Most restaurants aim for labor cost percentage somewhere between 25%-35% of sales, but that goal may vary by restaurant industry segment:

https://www.restaurant365.com/blog/how-to-calculate-labor-cost-percentage/#:~:text=Most%20restaurants%20aim%20for%20labor%20cost%20percentage%20somewhere,depending%20on%20in-house%20food%20production%20and%20service%20components

The current minimum wage in Michigan is $9.65. Tipped wages in the state are calculated at 38% of its standard minimum wage, making the minimum wage for tipped workers $3.67. Michigan plans to increase tipped workers' minimum wage to $4.58 by the year 2030.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-20, 09:10

[tw]1748360019085529181[/tw]



Last edited by Trapper Gus on 2024-02-07, 10:52; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-26, 09:32

Speaking of rising numbers, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported yesterday that gross domestic product grew by 3.3 percent in the last three months of 2023, faster than many anticipated and largely driven by energetic consumer spending, a strong job market and and rising wages.

As The Washington Post put it, this offers “fresh evidence that federal policymakers have managed to bring down inflation and secure a ‘soft landing’ without major repercussions for workers or the economy.” The BEA also reported that the annualized inflation rate dropped to 1.7 percent in the last three months of the year, the lowest rate since the second quarter of 2020.

https://america.substack.com/p/joe-biden-had-a-very-good-week
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-01-26, 09:46

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled further last month even as the economy kept growing briskly, a trend sure to be welcomed at the White House as President Joe Biden seeks re-election in a race that could pivot on his economic stewardship.

Friday’s government report showed that prices rose just 0.2% from November to December, a pace consistent with pre-pandemic levels and barely above the Fed’s 2% annual target. Measured from a year earlier, prices increased 2.6%.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called “core” prices rose just 0.2% from month to month and 2.9% from a year earlier — the smallest such rise since March 2021. Economists consider core prices a better gauge of the likely path of inflation.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-election-federal-reserve-rates-economy-8cdc8d09320bdaf6101033a9c13957cf

If corporations would drop their prices back to the percentage profit levels they had during the Trump administration then inflation would turn into deflation.

Also - Suprise ... Suprise ... Suprise

Inflation levels are right about where I guessed they would be over a year ago. Pat ... Pat ... Pat Razz
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Post by Floyd Robertson 2024-02-02, 15:33

Not all the inflation news is good news...

The latest inflation scourge: Car insurance

Like a multicar pileup, COVID triggered a chain reaction of supply and demand distortions in the automotive industry that’s still uncoiling. Supply chain snafus and a semiconductor shortage caused a dearth of new vehicles in 2021 and 2022. The result was the usual outcome when demand exceeds supply: soaring prices. The average cost of a new car spiked by 22% from March 2021 through December 2022, according to Cox Automotive. Americans were paying nearly $50,000 on average for a new car.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-02, 17:09

Floyd Robertson wrote:Not all the inflation news is good news...

The latest inflation scourge: Car insurance

Like a multicar pileup, COVID triggered a chain reaction of supply and demand distortions in the automotive industry that’s still uncoiling. Supply chain snafus and a semiconductor shortage caused a dearth of new vehicles in 2021 and 2022. The result was the usual outcome when demand exceeds supply: soaring prices. The average cost of a new car spiked by 22% from March 2021 through December 2022, according to Cox Automotive. Americans were paying nearly $50,000 on average for a new car.

No there are a bunch of higher priced items which the greedy corporations will not lower prices on until they can't sell the product.

New cars are seeing dealer discounts to move product, but not lower prices, yet.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-07, 11:36

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in January to 114.8 (1985=100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021, and marked the third straight monthly increase. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—surged to 161.3 (1985=100) from 147.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 83.8 (1985=100) in January, up from a revised reading of 81.9 in December.

Inflation continues on record pace.   - Page 10 Scree217

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Jan-2024
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-07, 12:50

Here is a FRED graph showing some things. Real wages are now above where they were pre-pandemic, however, with the pandemic relief funding real wages shot through the roof in 2020 and then fell all the way until June of 2022, when they were 99.2% of the wages in October of 2019.  Since then, they have gradually recovered back to the 102.5% of what they were in Oct 2019 at the end of December 2023.

Inflation continues on record pace.   - Page 10 Scree218

This performance is all due to what the government did to mitigate the shock to the economy during the pandemic, with the wages shooting up due to relief funds and the dropping almost as fast as the relief funds ended.  Intellectually some people get this, but others don't and emotionally the drop in wages was probably felt more after Trump left office by everyone.

The present uptick in how people feel about the economy is a combination of slightly higher real wages and the prices not bouncing up so rapidly in some areas. and coming down is some, too.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-09, 20:21

The prices consumers pay in the marketplace rose at an even slower pace than originally reported, according to closely watched revisions the government released Friday.

Updates to the consumer price index showed that the broad basket of goods and services measured increased 0.2% on the month, less than the originally reported 0.3%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

While the change is only modest, it helped confirm that inflation was moderating as 2023 ended, giving more leeway to the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates later this year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/-inflation-in-december-was-even-lower-than-first-reported-the-government-says.html

I also found this amusing...

Inflation-battered grocery shoppers are poised to get a much-needed break in meat prices — thanks to the emerging renewable fuel industry boom.

As it becomes increasingly popular to produce sustainable fuel from processing soybeans, there is a massive amount of a co-product called soymeal produced.

As a result, soymeal — the main ingredient in animal feed — has become more readily available, and thus cheaper, for meat purveyors, according to Bloomberg.

https://nypost.com/2024/01/29/business/us-shoppers-set-to-see-meat-prices-fall-thanks-to-renewable-energy/
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Post by AvgMSUJoe 2024-02-12, 09:31

[tw]1757035058198675484[/tw]
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-12, 09:52

The issue with what Krugman is saying is that he didn't include the graph of how Democratics react, which is not nearly as partisan.

Thus, this question is useless with one side seeing it completely through a partisan lens and the other side not near so much.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-13, 08:40

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Down year-to-year from 3.4% in December.  Economists were predicting 2.9% last I saw.

Housing & food are still the big drivers of inflation.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-biden-federal-reserve-539b662f32a3cea4a514407ae4389174
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-14, 10:43

CHEERS to taming the beast. The monthly inflation report is out, and it shows that prices continue to "slow markedly" and "amount to a positive sign for the Fed ahead of its next rate decision in March." For more in-depth analysis, let's turn it over to the corporate media via yesterday’s evening newscasts:

"Yes, but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but..."

Link just for Bob
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Post by Zurn 2024-02-14, 13:47

[quote="Trapper Gus"]
CHEERS to taming the beast. The monthly inflation report is out, and it shows that prices continue to "slow markedly" and "amount to a positive sign for the Fed ahead of its next rate decision in March." ]

So Trapper and the DailyKos thought the inflation number of 3.1% was good news. What did the markets think? Oh ... they tanked.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano 2024-02-14, 14:29

Trapper Gus wrote:
CHEERS to taming the beast. The monthly inflation report is out, and it shows that prices continue to "slow markedly" and "amount to a positive sign for the Fed ahead of its next rate decision in March." For more in-depth analysis, let's turn it over to the corporate media via yesterday’s evening newscasts:

"Yes, but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but but..."

Link just for Bob
Inflation continues on record pace.   - Page 10 3493939353
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-14, 14:36

Zurn wrote:

So Trapper and the DailyKos thought the inflation number of 3.1% was good news.  What did the markets think?   Oh ... they tanked.  

Short term reaction yesterday, today so far they are having a dead cat bounce day.

Everyone, except perhaps you, knew the markets were over extended and due for some profit taking.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-22, 08:13

Folks who changed jobs in 2022 saw their wages rise a stunning 16.4%, per ADP data, compared to 5% gains for those who stayed in the same job.

If you can change jobs for a 16% pay increase you should do it.

Most of this article is about something else but this caught my eye.

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/22/adp-data
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Post by Motown Spartan 2024-02-22, 08:16

Trapper Gus wrote:
Zurn wrote:

So Trapper and the DailyKos thought the inflation number of 3.1% was good news.  What did the markets think?   Oh ... they tanked.  

Short term reaction yesterday, today so far they are having a dead cat bounce day.

Everyone, except perhaps you, knew the markets were over extended and due for some profit taking.

I’m not sure the term dead cat bounce applies when we’re just off of record highs.
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Post by Trapper Gus 2024-02-22, 08:30

Motown Spartan wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

Short term reaction yesterday, today so far they are having a dead cat bounce day.

Everyone, except perhaps you, knew the markets were over extended and due for some profit taking.

I’m not sure the term dead cat bounce applies when we’re just off of record highs.

Okay, my amateur analysis says the PE rations are over the moon, and that the S&P plus Dow are being propped up by a few really big stocks in their portfolio while more stocks in their indexes are going down every day than going up, so unless the Fed unexpectedly signals more rate cuts eventually, in the next few months, stocks indexes will fall some.

Of course, in stocks my analysis is almost always wrong, so there is that.

Therefore, I am expecting a pull back with "bounces" on the way down.
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