The 2024 US House & Senate (& Presidential Election) and the Michigan Legislature - Who do you Think Wins?

Cameron wrote:I don't think I qualify as young anymore, but as it stands today, I have no intention of voting for president in 2024.

I don't want Trump to win, but I really want Biden to lose.

I'm definitely not young anymore and, at this point, ya know.. I like my wife and daughter, getting out on my bike and trail running, but maybe a cataclysmic celestial event is what we deserve.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:



https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/gen-z-less-religious-more-liberal-lgbtq

This has to be said, if the younger generations stay away from the polls Trump will win, even though by the polls more baby boomers will vote for Biden.

yeah - my 24 year old daughter is less than enthusiastic about voting for Biden and I suspect she speaks for a large percentage of her demographic.

however, she is astute enough to know that just because Biden is a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, the prospect of 4 more years of the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator spells the end to American democracy, including her most focused issue.. simply being a woman under the rule of white supremacy and christian nationalism.

so.. luckily, she knows better than to not vote out of protest, but I do agree - if the 18-30 demographic stays home on Election Day, I hope they enjoyed an America where they had at least a few freedoms.

I know two early/mid 20s women pretty well like you and they feel and will act the same. Actually, I guess I feel like that too.

I said four years ago that I felt that Biden should have said straight out that he was a one-termer. I'm actually pretty pissed that he didn't do that because the whole point was for us to be in a better position today than we were then. Biden has done well as president, if imperfect, especially under the circumstances. But sometime we need a president or any candidate frankly who feels like they can trust the populace with their honesty and be willing to lose in giving it.

You're not wrong about stupid country etc. Bob, but as a whole the populace is ready for something to do together in a generally positive direction but have not been provided with the circumstances in this election to have that choice.

Rick Saunders wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
yeah - my 24 year old daughter is less than enthusiastic about voting for Biden and I suspect she speaks for a large percentage of her demographic.

however, she is astute enough to know that just because Biden is a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, the prospect of 4 more years of the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator spells the end to American democracy, including her most focused issue.. simply being a woman under the rule of white supremacy and christian nationalism.

so.. luckily, she knows better than to not vote out of protest, but I do agree - if the 18-30 demographic stays home on Election Day, I hope they enjoyed an America where they had at least a few freedoms.

I know two early/mid 20s women pretty well like you and they feel and will act the same. Actually, I guess I feel like that too.

I said four years ago that I felt that Biden should have said straight out that he was a one-termer. I'm actually pretty pissed that he didn't do that because the whole point was for us to be in a better position today than we were then. Biden has done well as president, if imperfect, especially under the circumstances. But sometime we need a president or any candidate frankly who feels like they can trust the populace with their honesty and be willing to lose in giving it.

You're not wrong about stupid country etc. Bob, but as a whole the populace is ready for something to do together in a generally positive direction but have not been provided with the circumstances in this election to have that choice.

I hear ya and I 100% agree about Biden.

He's been amazing given the unprecedented 'amateur hour' chaos he came into. We all knew that the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator was going to be an absolute disaster but I don't think anyone knew the extent to the damage he would cause.

Biden came in, cleaned it up and America, while imperfect and has a long way to go, is on the right track. I agree that I wished he would've handed over the keys to the next generation of Democrats. Pelosi did that in the House and I will forever admire her for doing that. Just an amazing woman in general with her leadership, her commitment to public service and her common decency - for her to recognize that the time had come was absolutely the right thing to do.

I don't think either party's base is overly excited about the general election. With any luck, the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator will be in prison or dead from something.. like, syphilis. The mainstream media is guilty of their usual act, which is to drum up this imaginary support for him.. truth is, if the Democrat ticket was, say, Whitmer/Newsom, the base, including the 18-30 year old demographic, would be so energized, it would be palpable.

instead, the best decent America can hope for is that somehow Biden limps across the finish line not in 'success' but in prison/death and/or utter failure of his pathetic opponent.

Trapper Gus wrote:It confuses me, this dislike for a second Biden term.

To me it looks like Biden has gotten more done in his first term than Trump, Obana (in two), GW Bush (in two), Clinton, (in two), GHW Bush, or Carter did in office.  Reagan, maybe Nixon/Ford & LBJ are the only Presidents since WW2 whose results come close to measuring up to what Biden has gotten done.

It seems likely that he will also get a bipartisan deal of a Child Support tax credit for the poor & middle class and probably the passage of more money to support Ukraine with a bipartisan "fix" on border security/immigration before the end of this term.

He also, pointing directly at the younger generations, has been chipping away at fixing the student loan crisis, at this point he has created direct cancellation of about $130 Billion in student loans and has put the country strongly on track to transition from fossil fuels to green energy.

He has done all this with either slim majorities in the House & Senate (but held back by the filibuster) or with a Republican House, showing tremendous ability to maneuver politically, and with a hostile Supreme Court.

Why would you want someone with less skill, which what, as fine as Newsom(who has a huge blue majority in his legislature) or Whitmer are, would be?

I just think that Biden is on death's doorstep. Beyond his support of genocide, he's a good dude, a good man, a good family. A career public servant who has always put America first.

It's the same reason I sit in department meetings for an hour and half and never say a word. I've had my time, I've had my say.. I've chaired high level committees, done a lot of the process work, development, implementation, etc - I just think it's time for youthful energy and I like to see my younger colleagues guide ideas, conversations and look to me if they need any sort of institutional wisdom or historical context.

plus I'm not really paying attention to whatever is going on, anyway.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
I just think that Biden is on death's doorstep. Beyond his support of genocide, he's a good dude, a good man, a good family. A career public servant who has always put America first.

It's the same reason I sit in department meetings for an hour and half and never say a word. I've had my time, I've had my say.. I've chaired high level committees, done a lot of the process work, development, implementation, etc - I just think it's time for youthful energy and I like to see my younger colleagues guide ideas, conversations and look to me if they need any sort of institutional wisdom or historical context.

plus I'm not really paying attention to whatever is going on, anyway.

That was literally me at today's department meeting. We have an outstanding crop of young faculty (30s and 40s, ok 50s too) in our department and it is their show now. I am still active and my experienced opinion is worthwhile information I am happy to provide but I shouldn't be a primary force shaping their careers when I've only got 8 years left in me.

Plus, my dad is sharp but he's 83. My mom is sharp but she's 82. My mother in law is bright but she's 85. In each and every one of them the difference of a year is way noticeable. The difference from five years ago is striking. They may each have another 10 years left in them. But what will those 10 years look like. Will they look like the last 5? I don't like overlaying my feelings about that on the presidency (or a seat in the house or senate for that matter either and your point about Pelosi is well taken).

Trapper Gus wrote:It confuses me, this dislike for a second Biden term.

To me it looks like Biden has gotten more done in his first term than Trump, Obana (in two), GW Bush (in two), Clinton, (in two), GHW Bush, or Carter did in office.  Reagan, maybe Nixon/Ford & LBJ are the only Presidents since WW2 whose results come close to measuring up to what Biden has gotten done.

It seems likely that he will also get a bipartisan deal of a Child Support tax credit for the poor & middle class and probably the passage of more money to support Ukraine with a bipartisan "fix" on border security/immigration before the end of this term.

He also, pointing directly at the younger generations, has been chipping away at fixing the student loan crisis, at this point he has created direct cancellation of about $130 Billion in student loans and has put the country strongly on track to transition from fossil fuels to green energy.

He has done all this with either slim majorities in the House & Senate (but held back by the filibuster) or with a Republican House, showing tremendous ability to maneuver politically, and with a hostile Supreme Court.

Why would you want someone with less skill, which what, as fine as Newsom(who has a huge blue majority in his legislature) or Whitmer are, would be?

Because they (to the best of my knowledge) have not publicly declared themselves Zionists and are both likely to be alive in 2028. Not really all that complicated.

But then they can't claim to be serving their country, they can only claim to be serving their own ego. AKA the Ruth Bader Ginsberg.

I generally also think single issue voting is dumb. When that issue is genocide, it has a bit more merit. There's also his age, so technically 2 issues, both of which he is on the wrong side of. I could find more if I felt the need to further justify myself, but those 2 seem like plenty for now.

Give any Democratic president supermajorities everywhere and they should be able to get all kinds of great stuff done.

Shit in one hand and hope in the other...

Rick Saunders wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
I just think that Biden is on death's doorstep. Beyond his support of genocide, he's a good dude, a good man, a good family. A career public servant who has always put America first.

It's the same reason I sit in department meetings for an hour and half and never say a word. I've had my time, I've had my say.. I've chaired high level committees, done a lot of the process work, development, implementation, etc - I just think it's time for youthful energy and I like to see my younger colleagues guide ideas, conversations and look to me if they need any sort of institutional wisdom or historical context.

plus I'm not really paying attention to whatever is going on, anyway.

That was literally me at today's department meeting. We have an outstanding crop of young faculty (30s and 40s, ok 50s too) in our department and it is their show now. I am still active and my experienced opinion is worthwhile information I am happy to provide but I shouldn't be a primary force shaping their careers when I've only got 8 years left in me.

Plus, my dad is sharp but he's 83. My mom is sharp but she's 82. My mother in law is bright but she's 85. In each and every one of them the difference of a year is way noticeable. The difference from five years ago is striking. They may each have another 10 years left in them. But what will those 10 years look like. Will they look like the last 5? I don't like overlaying my feelings about that on the presidency (or a seat in the house or senate for that matter either and your point about Pelosi is well taken).

exactly.

I regularly have colleagues stopping by my office to discuss their options, issues they're experiencing, challenges, possible advancements, does a lateral move to another department/college equal potential for an upward move at some point? I love those conversations and appreciate their respect.

I value them and their younger, more progressive ideas and views. Their thoughts and experiences that are significantly different from my own. That is what 'diversity' is all about. I feel like we need to honor that, regardless of our field.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Cameron wrote:Give any Democratic president supermajorities everywhere and they should be able to get all kinds of great stuff done.

Shit in one hand and hope in the other...

Depends on the person, still.  Joe Manchin might not get what needs to be done, done. Biden with 52 Senators and the House might get the Voting Rights Act, which would be a BFD.  With 62 Senators it would be a done BFD.

A comment on age, where I disagree with using a number.

There are virtuoso musicians who play at a very high level well into their mid to upper 90's.  Biden is a virtuoso politician and with that he has political skills that are "muscle memory", just like a musician has on an instrument.  Based on his current virtuoso performance there is no reason to think he cannot keep going at the same skill level well into his 90's.

Trump, OTOH is a mess, at 78.

Your definition of virtuoso is extremely sad. The musician comparison is nonsense.

Well it’s pretty much a given Trump will be the nominee. The Haley dream is dead. Buckle up.

It’s incredible to watch SC voters being interviewed (CNN). These are, on the surface, well educated, articulate, reasonable people. All felt Haley was a good governor. And 12 of the 13 raised their hand that they would support Trump for President if he were a convicted felon. His crimes are serious. And they just don’t care. I want their brains preserved for study. This country is so fucked. But hey. Let’s all sit on our hands and pretend being reasonable middle of the road “America will do the right thing” simps will win the day.

Cameron wrote:I don't think I qualify as young anymore, but as it stands today, I have no intention of voting for president in 2024.

I don't want Trump to win, but I really want Biden to lose.

^This is the definition of stupid American.^

Trapper Gus wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:It’s incredible to watch SC voters being interviewed (CNN). These are, on the surface, well educated, articulate, reasonable people. All felt Haley was a good governor. And 12 of the 13 raised their hand that they would support Trump for President if he were a convicted felon. His crimes are serious. And they just don’t care. I want their brains preserved for study. This country is so fucked. But hey. Let’s all sit on our hands and pretend being reasonable middle of the road “America will do the right thing” simps will win the day.

[tw]1749949719705424023[/tw]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/22/new-hampshire-primary-voter-00136850?utm_source=pocket_reader

BEDFORD, N.H. — “This,” Ted Johnson told me, “is what I hope.” We were here the other day at a bar not far from his house, and we were talking about Donald Trump and the possibility he could be the president again by this time next year. “He breaks the system,” he said, “he exposes the deep state, and it’s going to be a miserable four years for everybody.”

“You’re a veteran,” I told him. “You are somebody who doesn’t trust the system that in the broadest sense you served.”

“I have no trust,” he said.

“The system you served,” I said again.

“That’s right. I swore an oath,” he said. “I believed in that oath.”

“When did you stop believing?” I asked Ted Johnson.

“About when Trump became president,” he answered.

Then of course he's going to vote for Trump again.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Cameron wrote:

Citation needed.

The United States, Israel’s closest ally, has provided strong military and political support for the campaign, but has increasingly called on Israel to scale back its assault and take steps toward establishing a Palestinian state after the war — a suggestion Netanyahu has soundly rejected.

Speaking during a nationally televised news conference Thursday, Netanyahu reiterated his longstanding opposition to a two-state solution, saying Israel “must have security control over the entire territory west of the Jordan River.”

On Friday, President Joe Biden and Netanyahu spoke by phone after a glaring, almost four-week gap in direct communication amid fundamental differences over their visions for Gaza once the war ends.

Biden, for his part, in Friday’s call reaffirmed his commitment to work toward helping the Palestinians move toward statehood.

In his interview, Eisenkot also confirmed that a preemptive strike against Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia was called off at the last minute during the early days of the war. He said he was among those arguing against such a strike in an Oct. 11 Cabinet meeting that he said left him hoarse from shouting.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-1-19-2024-e5f45fb7b14d3dc8ff64b0aee4b473aa

A month ago, The Wall Street Journal, reporting on the dramatic events of Oct. 11, said intervention by President Joe Biden was key to averting the strike. Israeli warplanes were in the air, awaiting orders, when Biden called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and told him to stand down, the report said, citing people familiar with the call.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hezbollah-preemptive-strike-averted-oct-11-a3c94f1e39485445e13f4af23b6b1e19

Finally got 'round to reading your links. Keep going.

A month ago, The Wall Street Journal, reporting on the dramatic events of Oct. 11, said intervention by President Joe Biden was key to averting the strike. Israeli warplanes were in the air, awaiting orders, when Biden called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and told him to stand down, the report said, citing people familiar with the call.

Eisenkot said loud objections raised by him and others during the Cabinet session were key to calling off the strike. At the time, he and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, both opposition lawmakers, had just joined Netanyahu to help lead the war. Asked if their presence prevented a bad decision, he said: “Unequivocally.”

Sounds to me like Biden's people told the WSJ Biden averted the strike, while in actuality it was the moderate Israelis in the room who deserve most of the credit.

Biden didn't even talk to Netanyahu at all for the better part of a month, so to say that he was the one who talked them into a more sensible position seems like a bit of a stretch. None of that will stop you from giving Biden 100% of the credit and 0% of the blame of course, so carry on.

Trapper Gus wrote:Joe got a higher percentage of the vote as a write-in than Don did with his name on the ballot.

Penn, this is for you.

If Don is the Red candidate, then:

Joe is going to win the general. easily & pull the House Blue.  The Senate will go Red, however.

Sorry Trap, Biden is not going to win, unless there is some significant event like Trump being thrown in jail. I appreciate you carrying the Biden torch for me. There are simply too many people like the one I singled out above who would like to see Joe lose so they can say “I told you so”. Six months into the next Trump regime you will see these same people screaming about all of the Democratic Party accomplishments being taken away, and of course blaming Boomers. LOL. If Hillary has won in 2016 Roe would still be law, but you’ll never hear a Bernie supporter admit that. We’re still feeling the Bern, he’s the gift that keeps on giving (to MAGA).

It remains to be seen whether or not this ends up in larger regional conflict. I don't consider the trends to be promising. If we reach some sort of resolution before everything blows up, then maybe we can look into apportioning some credit to Biden. Until then, his grade is incomplete at best.

Putin wins and gives China and Iran the blueprint to beat the US. Just pay Republicans and disenfranchise younger liberals, giving those they can buy off an easier time to block aid. We're fucked.

Trapper Gus wrote:

PennSpartan wrote:
Sorry Trap, Biden is not going to win, unless there is some significant event like Trump being thrown in jail. I appreciate you carrying the Biden torch for me. There are simply too many people like the one I singled out above who would like to see Joe lose so they can say “I told you so”. Six months into the next Trump regime you will see these same people screaming about all of the Democratic Party accomplishments being taken away, and of course blaming Boomers. LOL. If Hillary has won in 2016 Roe would still be law, but you’ll never hear a Bernie supporter admit that. We’re still feeling the Bern, he’s the gift that keeps on giving (to MAGA).

Trump is having trouble getting above 50% in the Republican primaries with no real opposition, other than Republicans who don't want him as their candidate.

In NH over 25% of the people voting in the Republican primary said there was no way they would vote for Trump in the general.

OTOH, Biden, who wasn't on the ballot, won with a higher percentage of Democratic votes than Trump got with Republican votes.

Talking to the people on this board who don't want Biden to run, they are all saying they will "hold their nose" and vote for Biden if Trump is the other choice. They understand, this time, the insanity of voting third party, so the No-Labels push will fail, badly, and anyway, most polling has shown No-labels hurts Trump more than Biden.

I'm considering sending Nikki Haley $20 just to get on Trump's shitlist

Trapper Gus wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:It’s incredible to watch SC voters being interviewed (CNN). These are, on the surface, well educated, articulate, reasonable people. All felt Haley was a good governor. And 12 of the 13 raised their hand that they would support Trump for President if he were a convicted felon. His crimes are serious. And they just don’t care. I want their brains preserved for study. This country is so fucked. But hey. Let’s all sit on our hands and pretend being reasonable middle of the road “America will do the right thing” simps will win the day.

[tw]1749949719705424023[/tw]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/22/new-hampshire-primary-voter-00136850?utm_source=pocket_reader

BEDFORD, N.H. — “This,” Ted Johnson told me, “is what I hope.” We were here the other day at a bar not far from his house, and we were talking about Donald Trump and the possibility he could be the president again by this time next year. “He breaks the system,” he said, “he exposes the deep state, and it’s going to be a miserable four years for everybody.”

He doesn't know why he's mad or who he's mad at...he's just mad. Stunning.

Biden, Yellen tout their administration’s ‘invest in America’ economic gains

“That’s our economic plan — invest in America, invest in American products, build in America. That’s what we call Bidenomics,” Biden said. “My predecessor, he chose a different course; trickle-down economics, cut taxes for the very wealthy and big corporations, increasing the deficit significantly.”