The 2024 US House & Senate (& Presidential Election) and the Michigan Legislature - Who do you Think Wins?

AvgMSUJoe wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Certainly, you have made that case, however, successful presidential campaigns take years to set up and execute.  No one was willing to take Joe on a year or two ago when it would have been possible to challenge him, thus we are stuck with the horse we started on.  Sure, a big name, if there is one, could start now, but history, Humphry in 1968, Reagan in 1976, Kennedy in 1980, suggests that is a good way to lose the presidential election.  Obama in 2008 could be pointed at, however he started his campaign way earlier than now and was a force by this time in the cycle.  It really isn't the voting in the election either, it is the damage in time and money done during the primaries.

Really, for fresh candidates we need to be looking at 2028.  Trump will be the Republican candidate if he isn't dead, so who do like as the Democratic one.

Right now, I would like our governor to run.  She will have two years after her term ends to campaign, so the timing is about right.  I used to believe she was a light weight, but I have changed my mind.

There's a dude doing this... sounds like he's ostracized by the party and his major talking points are ageist at best.

You are talking about Dean Phillips I believe.

No one is quite sure what he is trying to do. Politically it is senseless.

kingstonlake wrote:I think the elephant in the room is Democrats are definitely anti anything Trump.  We all despise anything about him or the MAGA movement.  But a lot of democrats aren’t all warm and fuzzy with the inclusion or issues the huge umbrella stops from getting wet.

When it comes to voters and issues it is a mixed bag, of course.

Before the Republicans were turned into the anti-government party there were domestic issues where there was across the aisle agreements.

Now the aisle is mostly within the Democratic Party.

There are still a significant number of neoliberal free market believers in the Democratic ranks & there are there are a significant number of progressives, who are less trusting of markets.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:I’ll vote for whoever the democrat is, if you give a shit, but I don’t think that democrat should be Joe Biden.

Same here.

Joe was about my 5th-6th choice in the Democratic primary in 2020, but because I value democracy, families, women, and traditional American values, I am firmly in the Biden camp vs the racist, bigoted, drug addicted, bloated sack of rapist christian filth.

Traps that was a really long essay but I’m just going to kick off by pointing out that many many people VASTLY underestimate the way that the internet has changed our lives. It’s the most revolutionary technology ever invented, running circles around the printing press, and we’re still in the early stages of fully understanding the new world it’s going to usher in. You’re vastly underestimating it, but it’s okay, we regularly do that because you don’t realize that you’re in the middle of a revolutionary time when you’re in the middle of it. Historians will let you know when you’re dead.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Traps that was a really long essay but I’m just going to kick off by pointing out that many many people VASTLY underestimate the way that the internet has changed our lives. It’s the most revolutionary technology ever invented, running circles around the printing press, and we’re still in the early stages of fully understanding the new world it’s going to usher in. You’re vastly underestimating it, but it’s okay, we regularly do that because you don’t realize that you’re in the middle of a revolutionary time when you’re in the middle of it. Historians will let you know when you’re dead.

Not sure I would put it up with the printing press, or for that matter electricity.  Sure it has had an effect on how work gets done, but the pandemic probably did more to create work from home, socially, than better communication, aka the internet.  BTW I think we have already had this conversation, about the effect of the internet, or I had it with someone else. Again, depending on your age you likely never worked in the era of no laptops, no cellphones, and everything being typed by secretaries as we called them then. The PC itself created huge changes in work, but we still did the same tasks, so to speak, just differently. Same with the internet, the same tasks are done for campaigns, just differently.

Floyd Robertson wrote:Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign, in His Own Menacing Words

That's a hoot. Scary AF. Really.

For some reason i can't get over this imagery that Donald Trump is the Baron Harkonnen of our time

Trapper Gus wrote:

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Traps that was a really long essay but I’m just going to kick off by pointing out that many many people VASTLY underestimate the way that the internet has changed our lives. It’s the most revolutionary technology ever invented, running circles around the printing press, and we’re still in the early stages of fully understanding the new world it’s going to usher in. You’re vastly underestimating it, but it’s okay, we regularly do that because you don’t realize that you’re in the middle of a revolutionary time when you’re in the middle of it. Historians will let you know when you’re dead.

Not sure I would put it up with the printing press, or for that matter electricity.  Sure it has had an effect on how work gets done, but the pandemic probably did more to create work from home, socially, than better communication, aka the internet.  BTW I think we have already had this conversation, about the effect of the internet, or I had it with someone else.  Again, depending on your age you likely never worked in the era of no laptops, no cellphones, and everything being typed by secretaries as we called them then.  The PC itself created huge changes in work, but we still did the same tasks, so to speak, just differently.  Same with the internet, the same tasks are done for campaigns, just differently.

The internet in general is bigger and more revolutionary than the printing press.
The printing press allowed information to be transmitted across continents, oceans, etc.
The internet has made information ubiquitous. Ubiquitous information is extremely powerful both from a living stand point and from a technological stand point. It's quickly evolving and we are beginning to see crazy new things emerging (AI, etc).

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Not sure I would put it up with the printing press, or for that matter electricity.  Sure it has had an effect on how work gets done, but the pandemic probably did more to create work from home, socially, than better communication, aka the internet.  BTW I think we have already had this conversation, about the effect of the internet, or I had it with someone else.  Again, depending on your age you likely never worked in the era of no laptops, no cellphones, and everything being typed by secretaries as we called them then.  The PC itself created huge changes in work, but we still did the same tasks, so to speak, just differently.  Same with the internet, the same tasks are done for campaigns, just differently.

The internet in general is bigger and more revolutionary than the printing press.
The printing press allowed information to be transmitted across continents, oceans, etc.
The internet has made information ubiquitous.  Ubiquitous information is extremely powerful both from a living stand point and from a technological stand point.  It's quickly evolving and we are beginning to see crazy new things emerging (AI, etc).

It's been a minute, hasn't it Mav...

In a world where "books" were handwritten (and most people couldn't read) and there were very few, the printing press made them available, eventually to everyone.  As in the western world this caused the Bible to be available to the masses this caused a religious revolt.

The internet made some information, which was available to everyone already, easier to locate.  Effective the best card catalog for the human library, ever, though the humans must know how to use critical thinking to separate the BS from real information.

Show of hands for how many posters who are on this board, worked in professional occupations before PC's became common, about 1990, or the internet, in about 2000.

I did, the only difference is the productivity due to the speed of locating information.

IMO you guys don't have the experience to know how the internet has changed things and thus are parroting what the talking heads are telling you, but what they are saying is not true.

If we go deeper into this I was tasked with investigating AI in the mid 1990's, and it hasn't changed all that much.  The ability to do pattern recognition using neural nets or non linear logic sets still uses training data and is only as good as the training data.  The difference you are seeing is that Wall Street  now believes it is the next big thing.  In 5 years something else will be "the next big thing", and I say that because I am a neural net based system using past data sets as a training tool.

edit - you guys shouldn't spring this BS on me after two glasses of wine and three shots of whiskey.

Just in case any of you live in this douchebag's district:
Michigan Republican supports death penalty for gay people

He sounds like a fine upstanding church going pro life christian.

Jake from State Farm wrote:Just in case any of you live in this douchebag's district:
Michigan Republican supports death penalty for gay people

He sounds like a fine upstanding church going pro life christian.

It is sickening how so many conservatives want to limit the right to life for others.

Jake from State Farm wrote:Just in case any of you live in this douchebag's district:
Michigan Republican supports death penalty for gay people

He sounds like a fine upstanding church going pro life christian.

Wow. This guy needs to be removed/censured/whatevered.

Crazy won't do it, but not bringing in enough money means you're gone.

Michigan Republicans call for meeting to consider removing chairperson Karamo amid fundraising woes

State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) on Wednesday morning announced she would be running for Congress in Michigan’s 8th District, currently held by retiring U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint).

Kildee announced in November that he would not seek reelection in 2024. His vacant seat — which is considered critical for control of Congress this election — includes Genesee, Bay and Saginaw counties and parts of Midland County.

https://michiganadvance.com/blog/mcdonald-rivet-enters-race-for-kildees-congressional-seat/

You are correct, Bob, they are nuts.

Trapper Gus wrote:

You are correct, Bob, they are nuts.

and no matter how sad it makes them to hear it out loud, they whine, scream obscenities and call me names here, I will never stop saying it.

On the other hand, we have a fighter in Joe Biden

deeper into this I was tasked with investigating AI in the mid 1990's, and it hasn't changed all that much.

the speed at which information is available and just how widespread it is basically the improvement.

Think: accelerated decision making, accelerated research.

Sure the internet does what was already available so it's not revolutionary in THAT way, but because of the internet i'm sure we've quickly accelerated so many other areas as a side effect but it isn't exactly credited just because it was used.

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

deeper into this I was tasked with investigating AI in the mid 1990's, and it hasn't changed all that much.

the speed at which information is available and just how widespread it is basically the improvement.

Think: accelerated decision making, accelerated research.

Sure the internet does what was already available so it's not revolutionary in THAT way, but because of the internet i'm sure we've quickly accelerated so many other areas as a side effect but it isn't exactly credited just because it was used.

Okay - yes it spead information up, and it sped up disinformation.

It lacks the damping that a stable system requires.

It doesn't make it a revolution; it is an evolution.

We are learning to deal with the speed.

Time for an update:

TP wrote:Listing the possibles in order with strikeouts for ones not in the running & bold for those declared.

Democratic:
1 - Joe Biden

26 - Marianne Williamson
NB - Dean Phillips

1 - Vice President Kamala Harris
2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom
3 - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
4 - Senator Bernie Sanders
5 - Senator Elizabeth Warren
6 - Senator Raphael Warnock
7 - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
8 - Beto O’Rourke
9 - Stacey Abrams
10 - Senator Cory Booker
11 - Senator Amy Klobuchar
12 - Maryland Governor Wes Moore
13 - Senator Mark Kelly
14 - Senator Tammy Baldwin
15 - Colorado Governor Jared Polis
16 - North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
17 - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
18 - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
19 - Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
20 - Rep. Tim Ryan
21 - Ex - Montana Governor Steve Bullock
22 - Senator John Fetterman
24 - US House Representative Ro Khanna
23 - Ex - Judge Cheri Beasley
25 - Gina Raimondo
27 - Robert F Kennedy Jr


Republican:
1 - Donald Trump

3 - Ex Governor Nikki Haley

16 - Ex US Representative Liz Cheney

1a - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
2 - Ex-VP Mike Pence
4 - Georgia Governor Brian Kemp
5 - Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin
6 - New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu
7 - South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
8 - Ex Maryland Governor Larry Hogan
9 - Ex Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson
10 - Mike Pompeo
11 - Senator Ted Cruz
13 - Senator Tim Scott
12 - Senator Marco Rubio
14 - Ex New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
15 - John Bolton
17 - Larry Elder
18 - Vivek Ramaswamy
ND - Miami Mayor Francis Suarez
ND - Ex US Representative Will Hurd
ND - North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum

No-Lable Party:

1 - Joe Manchin
2 - Joe Lieberman?
3 - Liz Cheney?
4 - Mitt Romney?

Green Party:

1 - Jill Stein

2 - Cornel West

Independent:

1 - Cornel West

1 - Robert F Kennedy Jr

Here is an important story...

The GOP campaign arm focused on House races is already dumping millions of dollars into swing districts, pushing for volunteers to be on the ground and door-knocking early as they try to save their majority.

Why it matters: In spite of former President Trump's alarm over absentee ballots in 2020, Republicans have come to terms with the national pivot toward early voting. And they're trying to limit what they view as a Democratic advantage there.

"Election Day is no longer one day, it's 30 or 40 days in a lot of these states," one House Republican strategist told Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/11/swing-district-gop-election-2024-nrcc

In one sense this is the Republican Party moving beyond the Trump years where their ground game was ignored.

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Just 23% of Nikki Haley supporters say they would vote for Donald Trump in a rematch with Joe Biden, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows right before the Iowa Caucuses

Just 23% of Haley supporters say they would vote for Trump in a matchup with Biden. The plurality of Haley supporters, 43%, would vote for Biden instead.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2024/01/14/iowa-poll-nikki-haley-supporters-more-likely-vote-joe-biden-over-donald-trump-november-2024-election/72193795007/

https://apnews.com/article/vivek-ramaswamy-ends-2024-presidential-campaign-4b794ed3fbb41cc7f2a6a95d20458843

https://apnews.com/article/asa-hutchinson-drops-out-republican-race-a450d5e669df0f341586b21c51dfe858

Michigan U.S. Senate race

Republican field includes

1 - U.S. Reps. Mike Rogers
2 - U.S. Reps. Peter Meijer
3 - Detroit police chief James Craig
4 - U.S. Rep. Justin Amash
5 - State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder
6 - Sandy Pensler
7 - Michael Hoover
8 - Sherry O'Donnell
9 - Alexandria Taylor
10 - J.D. Wilson


Democratic field features

1 - U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin
2 - Hill Harper
3 - Nasser Beydoun
4 - Zack Burns

5 - Leslie Love
6 - Pamela Pugh

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/whos-running-us-senate-michigan-justin-amash-considers-bid

ANN ARBOR - Congresswoman Debbie Dingell, Democrat, announced Tuesday that she has filed reelection in Michigan's Sixth Congressional District, according to her campaign

.

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Talk about biden spinning  

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An article on a form that took place with a few of the people running for the Michigan US Senate seat.

Pretty much what you might expect, I guess.

Just to note that the Republicans favored continuing to use line 5 & the Democratics opposed it.

https://michiganadvance.com/2024/01/19/in-traverse-city-u-s-senate-candidates-spar-on-line-5-gaza-and-immigration/

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All the kids used to attack the boomers about voting for Trump, this suggests something else.

On the other hand, I find this cartoon somewhat amusing---

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Time for an update:

TP wrote:Listing the possibles in order with strikeouts for ones not in the running & bold for those declared.

Democratic:
1 - Joe Biden

26 - Marianne Williamson
NB - Dean Phillips

1 - Vice President Kamala Harris
2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom
3 - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
4 - Senator Bernie Sanders
5 - Senator Elizabeth Warren
6 - Senator Raphael Warnock
7 - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
8 - Beto O’Rourke
9 - Stacey Abrams
10 - Senator Cory Booker
11 - Senator Amy Klobuchar
12 - Maryland Governor Wes Moore
13 - Senator Mark Kelly
14 - Senator Tammy Baldwin
15 - Colorado Governor Jared Polis
16 - North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
17 - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
18 - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
19 - Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
20 - Rep. Tim Ryan
21 - Ex - Montana Governor Steve Bullock
22 - Senator John Fetterman
24 - US House Representative Ro Khanna
23 - Ex - Judge Cheri Beasley
25 - Gina Raimondo
27 - Robert F Kennedy Jr


Republican:
1 - Donald Trump

3 - Ex Governor Nikki Haley

16 - Ex US Representative Liz Cheney

1a - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
2 - Ex-VP Mike Pence
4 - Georgia Governor Brian Kemp
5 - Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin
6 - New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu
7 - South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
8 - Ex Maryland Governor Larry Hogan
9 - Ex Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson
10 - Mike Pompeo
11 - Senator Ted Cruz
13 - Senator Tim Scott
12 - Senator Marco Rubio
14 - Ex New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
15 - John Bolton
17 - Larry Elder
18 - Vivek Ramaswamy
ND - Miami Mayor Francis Suarez
ND - Ex US Representative Will Hurd
ND - North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum

No-Lable Party:
1 - Joe Manchin
2 - Joe Lieberman?
3 - Liz Cheney?
4 - Mitt Romney?

Green Party:
1 - Jill Stein

2 - Cornel West

Independent:
1 - Cornel West
1 - Robert F Kennedy Jr

DeathSantis was all about staying in the other day. I figure the GOP pressured him to drop out, as he and Nimarata Randhawa were splitting the non-racist,bigoted christian sexual predator GOP vote.

Yes, but: A poll released last month by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School found that young Americans appear less likely to vote in 2024 than they did in 2020, a record-setting year for young-voter turnout.

Before the 2020 election, 57% of Americans ages 18 to 29 said they were planning to vote. The number is now 49%, a figure many analysts say reflects disinterest in the likelihood of a Biden-Trump rematch.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/gen-z-less-religious-more-liberal-lgbtq

This has to be said, if the younger generations stay away from the polls Trump will win, even though by the polls more baby boomers will vote for Biden.

Haley shuts out Trump, 6-0, in Dixville Notch, N.H.  

The first votes of the New Hampshire primary have been cast.

Residents of the small town of Dixville Notch voted right after midnight, and it was a sweep for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. She received all six votes; and Donald Trump got a big goose egg — zero votes.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Yes, but: A poll released last month by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School found that young Americans appear less likely to vote in 2024 than they did in 2020, a record-setting year for young-voter turnout.

Before the 2020 election, 57% of Americans ages 18 to 29 said they were planning to vote. The number is now 49%, a figure many analysts say reflects disinterest in the likelihood of a Biden-Trump rematch.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/gen-z-less-religious-more-liberal-lgbtq

This has to be said, if the younger generations stay away from the polls Trump will win, even though by the polls more baby boomers will vote for Biden.

yeah - my 24 year old daughter is less than enthusiastic about voting for Biden and I suspect she speaks for a large percentage of her demographic.

however, she is astute enough to know that just because Biden is a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, the prospect of 4 more years of the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator spells the end to American democracy, including her most focused issue.. simply being a woman under the rule of white supremacy and christian nationalism.

so.. luckily, she knows better than to not vote out of protest, but I do agree - if the 18-30 demographic stays home on Election Day, I hope they enjoyed an America where they had at least a few freedoms.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:



https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/gen-z-less-religious-more-liberal-lgbtq

This has to be said, if the younger generations stay away from the polls Trump will win, even though by the polls more baby boomers will vote for Biden.

yeah - my 24 year old daughter is less than enthusiastic about voting for Biden and I suspect she speaks for a large percentage of her demographic.

however, she is astute enough to know that just because Biden is a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, the prospect of 4 more years of the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator spells the end to American democracy, including her most focused issue.. simply being a woman under the rule of white supremacy and christian nationalism.

so.. luckily, she knows better than to not vote out of protest, but I do agree - if the 18-30 demographic stays home on Election Day, I hope they enjoyed an America where they had at least a few freedoms.

Bob, I'm just as uninformed as the next guy, that would be you, however Biden is not a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, he just doesn't have a better option in the Mideast other than to support Israel. Been reading up on the situation as best I can, and it sounds like Irael wanted to go all out against everyone in the Mideast right after October 7th and Biden talked them down to "just" Gaza and tried to talk them into a more sensible response there.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
yeah - my 24 year old daughter is less than enthusiastic about voting for Biden and I suspect she speaks for a large percentage of her demographic.

however, she is astute enough to know that just because Biden is a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, the prospect of 4 more years of the racist, bigoted christian sexual predator spells the end to American democracy, including her most focused issue.. simply being a woman under the rule of white supremacy and christian nationalism.

so.. luckily, she knows better than to not vote out of protest, but I do agree - if the 18-30 demographic stays home on Election Day, I hope they enjoyed an America where they had at least a few freedoms.

Bob, I'm just as uninformed as the next guy, that would be you, however Biden is not a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, he just doesn't have a better option in the Mideast other than to support Israel. Been reading up on the situation as best I can, and it sounds like Irael wanted to go all out against everyone in the Mideast right after October 7th and Biden talked them down to "just" Gaza and tried to talk them into a more sensible response there.

meh.. maybe, but the people in Gaza matter, too.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Bob, I'm just as uninformed as the next guy, that would be you, however Biden is not a willing supporter of genocide in Gaza, he just doesn't have a better option in the Mideast other than to support Israel.  Been reading up on the situation as best I can, and it sounds like Irael wanted to go all out against everyone in the Mideast right after October 7th and Biden talked them down to "just" Gaza and tried to talk them into a more sensible response there.

meh.. maybe, but the people in Gaza matter, too.

Of course they do, however, an escalation into an all-out Mideastern war, which is what some in Israel's government want, would be a very bad thing.  To just look at one part of a hugely complex situation as the only thing that matters is short sighted, thus the US is stuck with accepting pain in the short term for a hoped for more permanent solution in the longer term.  It wasn't that many years ago when all the "Arab" states were in on destroying Israel, now a number of major states, Egypt & the Saudis accept the existence of Israel in a two-state solution, now we need Israel to accept that, too.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
meh.. maybe, but the people in Gaza matter, too.

Of course they do, however, an escalation into an all-out Mideastern war, which is what some in Israel's government want, would be a very bad thing.  To just look at one part of a hugely complex situation as the only thing that matters is short sighted, thus the US is stuck with accepting pain in the short term for a hoped for more permanent solution in the longer term.  It wasn't that many years ago when all the "Arab" states were in on destroying Israel, now a number of major states, Egypt & the Saudis accept the existence of Israel in a two-state solution, now we need Israel to accept that, too.

I know, man - I ain't arguing with you. Israel ain't accepting anything, other than genocide, because they don't have to.

we just need to keep a convicted rapist, christian, white supremacist out of the Oval Office.