So, is the B1G out of the Playoff picture?

2 weeks in and already the B1G is supposedly out of the race. The SEC isn't getting 2 teams in, I seriously doubt any conference is going to be able to get 2 teams in, the committee is too diversified to let that happen and the SEC reps, I don't think can vote on their own teams. MSU gets a lot more respect nationally than they do locally, and after being in MI for a week, I don't see why anyone reads the complete BS that comes out of Detroit. I made the mistake of reading a Sharp column and just stopped after the second paragraph. Yup, right now the B1G looks like a steaming pile of shit. Fortunately I wasn't able to watch many games on Saturday, but the season is still young, and I'm not sure any conference will have an undefeated team. I think for MSU to make the picture though, they will have to blow out most teams left on the schedule and that isn't really a Coach D trait. I just think its too early in the season to declare that the B1G is dead.

If there was already a topic on this subject, I apologize, been gone for a while.

I think there's too much football to be played to really make the call on this right now.

The media will always go for the "hot" story and the dialog changes over time. It's still wide open IMHO.

Just like last year, you just win out from here and let the chips fall where they may. If we run the table like we did last year after the Notre Dame loss, we'll be right back where we were. No doubt. No doubt in my mind.

MSU is the highest ranked 1 loss team. If we could keep that position, we would be in good shape. There will not be four undefeated teams at year end.

Just win and fuck what everyone else says.

I do think we will need a few dominating victories and just completely steam roll a lot of the competition. No close come from behinds wins against sub par opponents like we had against Purdue or Minnesota a few years back.

WBill wrote:MSU is the highest ranked 1 loss team. If we could keep that position, we would be in good shape. There will not be four undefeated teams at year end.

My early guess is it's going to be Oregon, Oklahoma, FSU and the SEC champs.

For us to have a shot to be in I think we need Oklahama or FSU to really crap the bed and for the SEC to really beat up eachother. If the SEC champ has one loss and then the 2nd place team has 2 losses I think we have a shot.

steveschneider wrote:

My early guess is it's going to be Oregon, Oklahoma, FSU and the SEC champs.

For us to have a shot to be in I think we need Oklahama or FSU to really crap the bed and for the SEC to really beat up eachother. If the SEC champ has one loss and then the 2nd place team has 2 losses I think we have a shot.

Those are the favorites, but Oklahoma always seems to somehow lose a game to Iowa State along the way.

steveschneider wrote:Just win and fuck what everyone else says.

I do think we will need a few dominating victories and just completely steam roll a lot of the competition. No close come from behinds wins against sub par opponents like we had against Purdue or Minnesota a few years back.

We need to blow out the competition coming up Wyoming and Eastern, I think by 40+. We need to have our starters sitting against PU in the second half. The scum game needs to be over by the 3rd quarter. Basically if MSU can do the double digit win thing again, I think they put themselves in a good position. If the D comes around where there might be some holes, the committee should see that and forgive a game in Sept against a very good Ducks team. Its kind of frustrating, because the SEC really doesn't play big OOC games, except for a few teams and they won't do Home and Homes, then they get credit for being the best. 

I think PAC 12 is probably the best conference out there right now.

InTenSity wrote:
We need to blow out the competition coming up Wyoming and Eastern, I think by 40+. We need to have our starters sitting against PU in the second half. The scum game needs to be over by the 3rd quarter. Basically if MSU can do the double digit win thing again, I think they put themselves in a good position. If the D comes around where there might be some holes, the committee should see that and forgive a game in Sept against a very good Ducks team. Its kind of frustrating, because the SEC really doesn't play big OOC games, except for a few teams and they won't do Home and Homes, then they get credit for being the best. 

I think PAC 12 is probably the best conference out there right now.

I will say this, regarding your last statement....the Ducks look like the best team in the country IMO and I bet they win it all. They have some really impressive talent on both sides of the ball.

Who cares. The CFB post-season is governed by rules that convolute what should otherwise be a fairly simple process. The four team playoff is not exactly a game changing innovation. So, as has been said throughout, just win and see where that takes you. That is all any school can do.

And for the record, I agree that there is way to much football to be played. But if you forced me to answer, I would say yes based on the following: FSU running the table, the SEC champ getting a bid, and the winner of the Pac 12 and Big 12 having no more than one loss. Somebody from what is now the power five has to get left out.

I'm not worried..

How the F did the USC AD get on the playoff selection committee? Seems like a HUGE conflict of interest. Seeing the way he behaved last weekend arguing with the ref, he's obviously not impartial.

How the F did the USC AD get on the playoff selection committee? Seems like a HUGE conflict of interest. Seeing the way he behaved last weekend arguing with the ref, he's obviously not impartial.

I think each conference sent one AD to be part of the committee. I know that the Arkansas AD is on it and so is Alvarez, who I think is the Wisky AD. I'm not sure how the conferences selected who their reps were.

The USC AD would have to leave the room if they talk about USC, and maybe even the PAC12.

Turtleneck wrote:Who cares. The CFB post-season is governed by rules that convolute what should otherwise be a fairly simple process. The four team playoff is not exactly a game changing innovation. So, as has been said throughout, just win and see where that takes you. That is all any school can do.

And for the record, I agree that there is way to much football to be played. But if you forced me to answer, I would say yes based on the following: FSU running the table, the SEC champ getting a bid, and the winner of the Pac 12 and Big 12 having no more than one loss. Somebody from what is now the power five has to get left out.

Gotta get the Big12 out of it.

NigelUno wrote:

Gotta get the Big12 out of it.

Why did they create a system, that by its very design, would have to exclude a champion from at least one of the best conferences?

Turtleneck wrote:

Why did they create a system, that by its very design, would have to exclude a champion from at least one of the best conferences?

Because it will lead to the 5 power conferences separating from the NCAA, and implementing an 8 team playoff (with conference champs getting automatic bids).

Last year at this time we were still unranked and still had the ND loss yet to come.  After the BTCG, what were we ranked, 5th?  And a lot of people around the country were saying that they think we'd be selected for the playoff if there was one last year.  So yeah, we definitely can.

With the rest of the B1G looking so weak, it is not at all inconceivable that MSU and Wisconsin, both at 11-1 and ranked in the Top 7-8, will face off in the BTCG.  Such a game would probably give the winner a pretty good claim for the Top 4 spot, especially with each team's one loss coming against pretty good teams so early in the season.

I don't know man.... Last year Nebraska didn't squeak by McNeese State, OSU didn't lose at home to VT, Purdue didn't lose to ****ing CMU ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Michigan didn't get date-raped by ND and Northwestern was supposedly good until midway through the season.

Basically strength of schedule makes MSU and Wisconsin essentially Boise State at the end of the year, no matter what happens. Maybe in if they go undefeated, but 1). they better be impressive and 2). Some other teams better stumble.

In other words, I don't think it looks good.

FSU
OREGON
ALABAMA
(???)  A lot of possibles here ahead of MSU.

There is so much more football to be played. It ain't over.

I don't know man.... Last year Nebraska didn't squeak by McNeese State, OSU didn't lose at home to VT, Purdue didn't lose to ****ing CMU ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Michigan didn't get date-raped by ND and Northwestern was supposedly good until midway through the season.

Basically strength of schedule makes MSU and Wisconsin essentially Boise State at the end of the year, no matter what happens. Maybe in if they go undefeated, but 1). they better be impressive and 2). Some other teams better stumble

Nebraska beat Wyoming 37-34, I'd call that squeaking by. Purdue is just outright bad. They lost to Cinci and N. Illinois, and barely beat Indiana State. No excuse for O$U, they shit the bed badly. I think people were expecting um to beat ND because they have the last few years. Northwestern is superfucked this year, them and Purdue would be for the shittiest game of the year, you don't lose two of your best players a month before kickoff and recover. 

I know I'm making excuses, but fuckit, every other conference would have someone writing excuses and defending what is going on, or breaking things down. You fuckers in the midwest just love to tear apart your own and throw them to the wolves. 

FSU will lose at least one game this year, Bama will blow it again somehow.

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:There is so much more football to be played. It ain't over.

Address my point about strength of schedule and tell me why it's wrong. All the big ten will be doing is playing cupcakes and each other from here on out. If they're (rightly) perceived as weak, how does playing nobody considered strong get MSU in over Oklahoma, Missouri/A&M/Baylor/ND etc etc.

I do think the SEC gets 2 in if they both go undefeated and meet each other in the championship and it's competitive.

It MAY be a done deal. That's all I'm saying and I don't think that's an overly pessimistic point of view.

Barrett for osu was so bad. Virginia tech players were alone catching those interceptions. It was unreal.

InTenSity wrote:
Nebraska beat Wyoming 37-34, I'd call that squeaking by. Purdue is just outright bad. They lost to Cinci and N. Illinois, and barely beat Indiana State. No excuse for O$U, they shit the bed badly. I think people were expecting um to beat ND because they have the last few years. Northwestern is superfucked this year, them and Purdue would be for the shittiest game of the year, you don't lose two of your best players a month before kickoff and recover. 

I know I'm making excuses, but fuckit, every other conference would have someone writing excuses and defending what is going on, or breaking things down. You fuckers in the midwest just love to tear apart your own and throw them to the wolves. 

FSU will lose at least one game this year, Bama will blow it again somehow.

Dude, I'm not tearing anything apart, I'm saying MSU does not have much of a chance to rise to the top 4 playing teams that showed that badly last weekend. Where can they make up the difference?

Rocinante wrote:

Dude, I'm not tearing anything apart, I'm saying MSU does not have much of a chance to rise to the top 4 playing teams that showed that badly last weekend.  Where can they make up the difference?

I think this is a valid question. Last year going into the OSU game the perception was that OSU was like an Alabama and supposed to play in the BCS championship game. What was their win streak up to the point of the B10 championship game? Since then they dropped two straight to end the year last year, and just crapped the bed against Virginia.

Wiscosin has lost 2 of their last three, and Michigan looks just awful.

I think Intensity nailed it up above, MSU is going to have to steam roll through the schedule to get in the conversation for the playoff game.

Dude, I'm not tearing anything apart, I'm saying MSU does not have much of a chance to rise to the top 4 playing teams that showed that badly last weekend. Where can they make up the difference?

That comment isn't necessarily directed at you, its directed at Rexrode and Sharp. They are taking the easy way out and jumping on the bandwagon to trash the B1G, rather than dig into other 'favorites' schedule's as well. It isn't going to be easy for MSU to make it, but there are a few things that could happen to get them back up there.

Best case scenario - Oregon goes on to win the PAC12, undefeated and 20 points or whatever the spread was, is the closest anyone came.
MSU goes on to beat every team by double digits again, and against bad teams wins by 30 or more. Plus visibly show that the game against Oregon is an outlier, by keeping most teams in single digits. 

Worst case scenario - Ducks tank, and MSU loses to OSU and Nebraska.

Most likely scenario - MSU probably loses another game, but still makes it to the B1G championship, gets passed over, but goes to one of the other big bowl games.

InTenSity wrote:
That comment isn't necessarily directed at you, its directed at Rexrode and Sharp. They are taking the easy way out and jumping on the bandwagon to trash the B1G, rather than dig into other 'favorites' schedule's as well. It isn't going to be easy for MSU to make it, but there are a few things that could happen to get them back up there.

Best case scenario - Oregon goes on to win the PAC12, undefeated and 20 points or whatever the spread was, is the closest anyone came.
MSU goes on to beat every team by double digits again, and against bad teams wins by 30 or more. Plus visibly show that the game against Oregon is an outlier, by keeping most teams in single digits. 

Worst case scenario - Ducks tank, and MSU loses to OSU and Nebraska.

Most likely scenario - MSU probably loses another game, but still makes it to the B1G championship, gets passed over, but goes to one of the other big bowl games.

Agree. At the very least, there will be nail biters.

Would the season really be lost if we don't make the playoffs? What if we won the big ten again? Went on to win our bowl game again. So we missed the playoffs but it's another 10 plus win season. Another conference championship and another bowl win. I would take that in a second.

Rocinante wrote:

Address my point about strength of schedule and tell me why it's wrong.  All the big ten will be doing is playing cupcakes and each other from here on out.  If they're (rightly) perceived as weak, how does playing nobody considered strong get MSU in over Oklahoma, Missouri/A&M/Baylor/ND etc etc.  

I do think the SEC gets 2 in if they both go undefeated and meet each other in the championship and it's competitive.

It MAY be a done deal.  That's all I'm saying and I don't think that's an overly pessimistic point of view.

2 SEC teams will not get in ahead of any undefeated team from the BigTen, Pac12, Big12, or ACC though.

Stoops21 wrote:Would the season really be lost if we don't make the playoffs? What if we won the big ten again? Went on to win our bowl game again. So we missed the playoffs but it's another 10 plus win season. Another conference championship and another bowl win. I would take that in a second.

me too, but it takes adjusting our expectations for THIS team. A loss to OR (even one closer than the score) and the rest of the conference being dogshit? Gotta prepare to be fucked by the committee. I'm not saying it's abandon ship or anything. Just saying.

NigelUno wrote:

2 SEC teams will not get in ahead of any undefeated team from the BigTen, Pac12, Big12, or ACC though.

So... Nebraska? Penn State? Doubt it.

Rocinante wrote:Stoops21 wrote:“Would the season really be lost if we don't make the playoffs? What if we won the big ten again? Went on to win our bowl game again. So we missed the playoffs but it's another 10 plus win season. Another conference championship and another bowl win. I would take that in a second.”me too, but it takes adjusting our expectations for THIS team. A loss to OR (even one closer than the score) and the rest of the conference being dogshit? Gotta prepare to be fucked by the committee. I'm not saying it's abandon ship or anything. Just saying.

I knew playoffs were possible but was also prepared to miss them. If this team won the big ten and a bowl game again even missing playoffs it's a success in my eyes.

Stoops21 wrote:Would the season really be lost if we don't make the playoffs? What if we won the big ten again? Went on to win our bowl game again. So we missed the playoffs but it's another 10 plus win season. Another conference championship and another bowl win. I would take that in a second.

Yes and no, at least IMO. The goal this year was to do something bigger than the Rose Bowl, which presumably is the Playoffs. I think the exposure from going out west might be good, even though we lost. I think even if we still make one of the 3 big bowls and have a decent opponent, it is disappointing, but still a good season.

Rocinante wrote:I don't know man.... Last year Nebraska didn't squeak by McNeese State, OSU didn't lose at home to VT, Purdue didn't lose to ****ing CMU ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Michigan didn't get date-raped by ND and Northwestern was supposedly good until midway through the season.

Basically strength of schedule makes MSU and Wisconsin essentially Boise State at the end of the year, no matter what happens.  Maybe in if they go undefeated, but 1). they better be impressive and 2). Some other teams better stumble.

Last year MSU squeaked by WMU, squeaked by South Florida (didn't USF get destroyed by McNeese St, or was that someone else?), and then got beat by a very mediocre Notre Dame team.

Last September we looked like the last team that would help anyone's strength of schedule, but by the end of the season, we were the strongest team on the schedule for nearly everyone we faced. We can say something similar about Auburn (it was week 6 before they even got their first votes). Go back 1 year ago and Michigan and Florida were Top 20 teams and helping strength of schedule for their opponents. MSU and Auburn were not in the Top 25 at all. By November it was the opposite.

I'm not saying that any of this year's B1G teams are going to be like we were last year, just that basing an entire season's strength of schedule off one game in September is kind of silly. As MSU fans, we should be aware of this as much as anyone. The B1G did damage to it's reputation, and that perception could hurt us more than the reality, but OSU will be MUCH better by the time we play them than they were Saturday. Same with Nebraska. Both are breaking in new QBs, though Nebraska's did have a couple of starts last year.

Fortunately, if this committee works the way they should, then they will base their decisions on watching actual games, which most pollsters did not do previously. And if they do base it on polls, we still have decent shot, because if we both win out, then MSU and Wisconsin will both be in the Top 10 by November, and probably the top 7-8 by the BTCG. We all know how polls work. We fell a bunch by losing on the road to the #2/#4 team in the country, while Baylor and Notre Dame are now ranked ahead of us because they both beat absolute nobodies at home. As the season goes on, we'll benefit from beating up on the weak while higher ranked teams will fall by losing to tougher teams. It's anyone's guess how much the committee will ultimately take different things into account.

To the OP...No

MiamiSpartan wrote:

7-8 isn't top 4. I'm just being realistic from where I see it now.

7-8 isn't top 4. I'm just being realistic from where I see it now.

I think he's inferring that it will be a top 10 matchup, which could be enough, depending on how other teams perform to boost them to the top 4.

InTenSity wrote:

I think he's inferring that it will be a top 10 matchup, which could be enough, depending on how other teams perform to boost them to the top 4.

I know what he's inferring. I'm just wondering who loses to let either of those 1 loss teams move up at least 3 spots.

Like I said, we can make all sorts of assumptions about who loses and who doesn't but from where I'm sitting it's a tough fuckin road.

What if the committee rewards MSU for going to Autzen to play and the AP has MSU as 7, but they have MSU at #4, over Baylor who is undefeated but has a horrible SOS? I dunno man, lots of time left in the season. I would say, at this point, everything is out of our hands. Was JSU an FCS team?

Rocinante wrote:In other words, I don't think it looks good.FSUOREGONALABAMA(???)  A lot of possibles here ahead of MSU.

Fwiw FSU is in the same boat as us. 1 loss and they are out. No way should they get the nod over us if they falter once