In reality, Arnett was NOT open all night, and Valenti was WRONG

Get as mad as you want, but Valenti was talking out of his ass regarding Arnett, at least if The Dude correctly represented what Mike said.  

I generally like Valenti, but I know enough to take his claims with a grain of salt, as his first priority is to generate discussion.  And relative to the number of snaps he's taken, who on MSU's team has generated more outrage/discussion/controversy than Arnett over the last few years?  Maybe The Dude and others shouldn't be so quick to follow Mike blindly and accept his claims as fact.  It's interesting because in that thread, The Dude said, "No....its just not hard to decipher when a statement is made for shock jock purposes or when its a legit point.  Arnett being open all game and Cook missing him for the most part isnt one of those 'shock' statements."  Well, Dude, apparently it is hard for you to decipher that.  But the point here isn't to call you out, but rather to give some facts, so let's start.

None of the below is to take a shot at Arnett or any other player, it's just the facts that I observed.

First the TL; DR: Cook had 16 incompletions.  Arnett was on the field for 6 of those (maybe 7...one time there is a receiver off screen the entire play).  Maybe 1 or 2 you could argue that Arnett was open and not thrown to, but there looked to be help defenders in either case.  Arnett was also on the field for 5 of Cook's completions, including the two that Arnett caught, as well as the 54 yarder and the 28 yarder to Burbridge (is Valenti going to complain about not throwing to Arnett on those?).  The other was a swing pass to London where that was the designed read.  Arnett was running deep to take his defender with him, but did not appear to be a potential receiver.  If he was, he would have been covered as the defender was right with him until Cook threw the ball at which point he broke off Arnett to play the ball.  Arnett may have appeared to be open on that play, but only after Cook threw to London.  

So let's look at the incompletions in which Arnett was on the field:

Q1:  Cook's third pass attempt of the game, was a quick back shoulder fade to Troup or Kings (I didn't note who, but it seemed like he should have caught it).  So it was a quick snap and throw, not really a "read through the progressions" type of play.  Arnett's route was just to go out about 5 yards and curl.  By the time Cook was in his throwing motion, Arnett was only just getting to his turn and the DB was right on him.  Cook could have waited for Arnett's route and probably fired it in there and Arnett may have shielded the defender with his body enough, but the defender also could have gotten a hand in there.  Either way, the play was not designed for that unless something blew up with the primary read, and regardless it hardly constitutes Arnett being wide open or Cook missing him.

Q1:  Cook's 7th pass attempt.  Arnett was lined up on the left, but the play was designed as a QB rollout to the right (naked bootleg, I think).  Arnett's route looked to go at an diagonal left to right, but he was off camera about 5 yards into the route, so you can't tell if he broke open or whether there was safety coverage in the area.  However, a defender was closing on Cook and he threw it on the move.  Even if Arnett was open, by that point he likely would have been about 15+ yards down field and around the middle of the field (based on the angle he started his route), so Cook would have had to stop and plant his feet to make the throw, and he would have been sacked if he took time to do that.  The other option would have been to throw 15+ yards down field across his body while on the move away from Arnett.  Either option would have been very stupid by Cook.

Q1:  Cook's 9th pass attempt.  Arnett was in the slot, Burbridge was outside of him.  Both ran short in routes.  Both came open about the same time.  All being equal in terms of openness, who are you going to throw it to, based on their last 4 years?  Cook threw to AB, but overthrew him.  Also, looking at the routes, it may not have been possible to pass to Arnett.  I've posted a picture below.  Look at the OL/DL battle, basically right in the throwing lane between Cook and where he would lead Arnett to.  It was too short of a pass to loft over the OL/DL.  Additionally, notice number 45 moving toward Arnett.  If Cook waited for Arnett to clear the OL/DL battle, he'd be leading him right into #45.


Q2:  Arnett was not on the field for any official pass attempts in the 2nd quarter.  He was on for a fade to Burbridge where the DB got called for a PI.  Both Arnett and AB ran the same route with the DBs close to each of them at the time of the throw. So if you're Cook do you throw the fade to the 6'1 WR with 80 catches and 900 yards for MSU or the 5'11 WR with 6 catches and 87 yards for MSU?  And Burbridge was pulling away from the DB with the ball in the air, leading to the PI.  Arnett was also on the field for Cook's sack/fumble.  He was getting no separation, so Cook held on to the ball and moved around a little before being sacked.  Arnett was held on the play, and I believe that's why MSU kept the ball (though I don't think the announcers had a clue about it).  In any event, Arnett looked to be the primary read, and Cook wanted to throw to him, but had to abandon that because he wasn't open (due to the hold).

Q3:  Arnett had the catch and the TD.  Just before the TD, Cook threw incomplete to the TE near the goal line on a little corner route.  Arnett, lined up in the slot, was beating his defender on a post route (I think), but there was a safety right in the area he was headed.  The safety was watching Cook, likely waiting to react if Cook passed it to the TE or to Arnett.  As soon as Cook started his commitment to the throw, the safety headed that way.  This may have led Valenti to think Arnett was open, but if Cook threw to Arnett he would have been throwing right at the safety.  That's not being open.  I have a photo that kind of shows what I'm talking about if anyone is interested.

Q4:  Arnett was lined up wide right on the pass to Burbridge where he was out of bounds in the back of the endzone.  Arnett was doing a little out or maybe a curl route, but his DB was all over him.  Not remotely open.  AB was open, but Cook lead him too far/high so he couldn't keep his foot down.  I have a photo showing this if interested.

Q4:  Later in the 4th, there was an incomplete pass, where the wide left player was never shown (he was cut off at the bottom of the screen).  Might have been Arnett, might not have been.  Might have been open, might not have been.  But one thing is for sure, there is absolutely no way in hell that Valenti could tell that from re-watching the game, unless someone sent him the coaches' wide-angle footage.

If this was discussed on tRCMB and someone wants to link me to it, that's fine.  I don't remember seeing a recent Valenti thread there, and don't feel like searching.

But Mikey is the voice for MSU on the radio ! He can't be wrong, can he ?

Good job Miami

Valenti was wrong? No way. I do not believe you.

MiamiSpartan wrote:Get as mad as you want, but Valenti was talking out of his ass regarding Arnett, at least if The Dude correctly represented what Mike said.  

I generally like Valenti, but I know enough to take his claims with a grain of salt, as his first priority is to generate discussion.  And relative to the number of snaps he's taken, who on MSU's team has generated more outrage/discussion/controversy than Arnett over the last few years?  Maybe The Dude and others shouldn't be so quick to follow Mike blindly and accept his claims as fact.  It's interesting because in that thread, The Dude said, "No....its just not hard to decipher when a statement is made for shock jock purposes or when its a legit point.  Arnett being open all game and Cook missing him for the most part isnt one of those 'shock' statements."  Well, Dude, apparently it is hard for you to decipher that.  But the point here isn't to call you out, but rather to give some facts, so let's start.

None of the below is to take a shot at Arnett or any other player, it's just the facts that I observed.

First the TL; DR: Cook had 16 incompletions.  Arnett was on the field for 6 of those (maybe 7...one time there is a receiver off screen the entire play).  Maybe 1 or 2 you could argue that Arnett was open and not thrown to, but there looked to be help defenders in either case.  Arnett was also on the field for 5 of Cook's completions, including the two that Arnett caught, as well as the 54 yarder and the 28 yarder to Burbridge (is Valenti going to complain about not throwing to Arnett on those?).  The other was a swing pass to London where that was the designed read.  Arnett was running deep to take his defender with him, but did not appear to be a potential receiver.  If he was, he would have been covered as the defender was right with him until Cook threw the ball at which point he broke off Arnett to play the ball.  Arnett may have appeared to be open on that play, but only after Cook threw to London.  

So let's look at the incompletions in which Arnett was on the field:

Q1:  Cook's third pass attempt of the game, was a quick back shoulder fade to Troup or Kings (I didn't note who, but it seemed like he should have caught it).  So it was a quick snap and throw, not really a "read through the progressions" type of play.  Arnett's route was just to go out about 5 yards and curl.  By the time Cook was in his throwing motion, Arnett was only just getting to his turn and the DB was right on him.  Cook could have waited for Arnett's route and probably fired it in there and Arnett may have shielded the defender with his body enough, but the defender also could have gotten a hand in there.  Either way, the play was not designed for that unless something blew up with the primary read, and regardless it hardly constitutes Arnett being wide open or Cook missing him.

Q1:  Cook's 7th pass attempt.  Arnett was lined up on the left, but the play was designed as a QB rollout to the right (naked bootleg, I think).  Arnett's route looked to go at an diagonal left to right, but he was off camera about 5 yards into the route, so you can't tell if he broke open or whether there was safety coverage in the area.  However, a defender was closing on Cook and he threw it on the move.  Even if Arnett was open, by that point he likely would have been about 15+ yards down field and around the middle of the field (based on the angle he started his route), so Cook would have had to stop and plant his feet to make the throw, and he would have been sacked if he took time to do that.  The other option would have been to throw 15+ yards down field across his body while on the move away from Arnett.  Either option would have been very stupid by Cook.

Q1:  Cook's 9th pass attempt.  Arnett was in the slot, Burbridge was outside of him.  Both ran short in routes.  Both came open about the same time.  All being equal in terms of openness, who are you going to throw it to, based on their last 4 years?  Cook threw to AB, but overthrew him.  Also, looking at the routes, it may not have been possible to pass to Arnett.  I've posted a picture below.  Look at the OL/DL battle, basically right in the throwing lane between Cook and where he would lead Arnett to.  It was too short of a pass to loft over the OL/DL.  Additionally, notice number 45 moving toward Arnett.  If Cook waited for Arnett to clear the OL/DL battle, he'd be leading him right into #45.


Q2:  Arnett was not on the field for any official pass attempts in the 2nd quarter.  He was on for a fade to Burbridge where the DB got called for a PI.  Both Arnett and AB ran the same route with the DBs close to each of them at the time of the throw. So if you're Cook do you throw the fade to the 6'1 WR with 80 catches and 900 yards for MSU or the 5'11 WR with 6 catches and 87 yards for MSU?  And Burbridge was pulling away from the DB with the ball in the air, leading to the PI.  Arnett was also on the field for Cook's sack/fumble.  He was getting no separation, so Cook held on to the ball and moved around a little before being sacked.  Arnett was held on the play, and I believe that's why MSU kept the ball (though I don't think the announcers had a clue about it).  In any event, Arnett looked to be the primary read, and Cook wanted to throw to him, but had to abandon that because he wasn't open (due to the hold).

Q3:  Arnett had the catch and the TD.  Just before the TD, Cook threw incomplete to the TE near the goal line on a little corner route.  Arnett, lined up in the slot, was beating his defender on a post route (I think), but there was a safety right in the area he was headed.  The safety was watching Cook, likely waiting to react if Cook passed it to the TE or to Arnett.  As soon as Cook started his commitment to the throw, the safety headed that way.  This may have led Valenti to think Arnett was open, but if Cook threw to Arnett he would have been throwing right at the safety.  That's not being open.  I have a photo that kind of shows what I'm talking about if anyone is interested.

Q4:  Arnett was lined up wide right on the pass to Burbridge where he was out of bounds in the back of the endzone.  Arnett was doing a little out or maybe a curl route, but his DB was all over him.  Not remotely open.  AB was open, but Cook lead him too far/high so he couldn't keep his foot down.  I have a photo showing this if interested.

Q4:  Later in the 4th, there was an incomplete pass, where the wide left player was never shown (he was cut off at the bottom of the screen).  Might have been Arnett, might not have been.  Might have been open, might not have been.  But one thing is for sure, there is absolutely no way in hell that Valenti could tell that from re-watching the game, unless someone sent him the coaches' wide-angle footage.

If this was discussed on tRCMB and someone wants to link me to it, that's fine.  I don't remember seeing a recent Valenti thread there, and don't feel like searching.

I applaud your efforts. That's a ton of work to prove what we were sure was true. It's like putting money on a 1-9 favorite. Low rate of return. But a sure thing.

kingstonlake wrote:

I applaud your efforts. That's a ton of work to prove what we were sure was true. It's like putting money on a 1-9 favorite. Low rate of return. But a sure thing.

Yeah, good point about the odds.  But it's fun for me (and not all that much work/time to just skim through to find the pass plays).  I enjoy going back through games and looking at certain positions or matchups and see how some things played out that I didn't watch as closely live.

GET OUTTA HERE WITH YOUR FACTY THINGAMABOBS!!!

Seems Valenti was at least successful in sparking a discussion. Also I wonder if he was at the game in person. Isn't it usually hard to see any routes on tv where the ball wasn't thrown?