Re: Nate update: 92%

by **NigelUno** Mon 23 Nov 2015 - 18:29

Herbie Green wrote:So is Nigel going to be offering 100-1 odds on an 8% bet this week. How about just 50-1 now that the odds are lower of making it with one loss than zero.

Do you want to bet?

by Herbie Green Mon 23 Nov 2015 - 18:36

NigelUno wrote:
Herbie Green wrote:So is Nigel going to be offering 100-1 odds on an 8% bet this week. How about just 50-1 now that the odds are lower of making it with one loss than zero.

Do you want to bet?

I don’t know, is this another one of your sucker bets?

by **NigelUno** Mon 23 Nov 2015 - 19:23

Herbie Green wrote:
NigelUno wrote:

Do you want to bet?

I don’t know, is this another one of your sucker bets?

Looking back on it...would you say the last one was?

by **Vlad** Mon 23 Nov 2015 - 21:05

NigelUno wrote:
Herbie Green wrote:

I don’t know, is this another one of your sucker bets?

Looking back on it...would you say the last one was?

Nigel, you lost that bet the moment you offered it. The terms of the bet were such that even by winning you would've lost. You offered $10,000 in exchange for nothing, fool.

by **NigelUno** Mon 23 Nov 2015 - 21:22

Vlad wrote:
NigelUno wrote:

Looking back on it...would you say the last one was?

Nigel, you lost that bet the moment you offered it. The terms of the bet were such that even by winning you would've lost. You offered $10,000 in exchange for nothing, fool.

Every sucker bet needs a sucker.

You want to bet at 12.5/1 odds? Let me know.

by **Vlad** Mon 23 Nov 2015 - 21:27

NigelUno wrote:
Vlad wrote:

Nigel, you lost that bet the moment you offered it. The terms of the bet were such that even by winning you would've lost. You offered $10,000 in exchange for nothing, fool.

Every sucker bet needs a sucker.

You want to bet at 12.5/1 odds? Let me know.

Don't quit your day job, fool.

And don't make bets where you have to take out an insurance policy to cover your losses, fool.

by **NigelUno** Tue 24 Nov 2015 - 9:33

Vlad wrote:
NigelUno wrote:

Every sucker bet needs a sucker.

You want to bet at 12.5/1 odds? Let me know.

Don't quit your day job, fool.

And don't make bets where you have to take out an insurance policy to cover your losses, fool.

That's the thing about a sucker bet. The sucker thinks he can win. Thanks for playing that role.

You want in at 12.5/1?

by **StylesGShmooth** Tue 24 Nov 2015 - 15:14

Wait, 13%? Where'd that come from? We're at 8% with a loss. Our odds were worse a couple weeks ago if we didn't lose?

by **Vlad** Tue 24 Nov 2015 - 16:55

StylesGShmooth wrote:Wait, 13%? Where'd that come from? We're at 8% with a loss. Our odds were worse a couple weeks ago if we didn't lose?

Yes according to the statisticians, because there were so many possible outcomes still in play back then.

by **DWags** Tue 24 Nov 2015 - 18:12

Vlad wrote:
StylesGShmooth wrote:Wait, 13%? Where'd that come from? We're at 8% with a loss. Our odds were worse a couple weeks ago if we didn't lose?

Yes according to the statisticians, because there were so many possible outcomes still in play back then.

A significant difference in that "13%" was the plethora of possibilities that might happen. That is what MIGHT happen. All of the foolish betting was on the basis of MSU winning out and going 13-0.

Give those statisticians the "what if" possibilities of MSU running the table with victories at OSU and at Indy and what would their percentage be if they plugged that into their computers.

I admit the math they use to get the 13% is way over my pay grade.

by **Vlad** Tue 24 Nov 2015 - 19:13

DWags wrote:
Vlad wrote:

Yes according to the statisticians, because there were so many possible outcomes still in play back then.

A significant difference in that "13%" was the plethora of possibilities that might happen. That is what MIGHT happen. All of the foolish betting was on the basis of MSU winning out and going 13-0.

Give those statisticians the "what if" possibilities of MSU running the table with victories at OSU and at Indy and what would their percentage be if they plugged that into their computers.

I admit the math they use to get the 13% is way over my pay grade.

Agree.

by **DWags** Tue 24 Nov 2015 - 19:31

Vlad wrote:
DWags wrote:

A significant difference in that "13%" was the plethora of possibilities that might happen. That is what MIGHT happen. All of the foolish betting was on the basis of MSU winning out and going 13-0.

Give those statisticians the "what if" possibilities of MSU running the table with victories at OSU and at Indy and what would their percentage be if they plugged that into their computers.

I admit the math they use to get the 13% is way over my pay grade.

Agree.

Yours too. Obviously.

by **NigelUno** Tue 24 Nov 2015 - 20:26

Vlad? You getting back to me on 12.5/1?

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