The 1st test - April 18th - Georgia

LooseGoose wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:Its not a bellweather distrct.  Price ran to the right of Trump and won by over 10 points.  

If anything the GOP voters will want the next GOP representative to be at least as far right as Price was to help keep Trump from straying.

I'd agree it's not a bellweather but odd things happen in special elections.

This one has a Democrat that's never run for office and doesn't live in the district, yet he's raised $2 million to run.

Newcomer with war chest gives Democrats hope in Georgia’s 6th District

NigelUno wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

I'd agree it's not a bellweather but odd things happen in special elections.

This one has a Democrat that's never run for office and doesn't live in the district, yet he's raised $2 million to run.

Newcomer with war chest gives Democrats hope in Georgia’s 6th District

From your link:

"If history is a guide, there will be no upset. The last time a Georgia congressional seat flipped in a special election was in 1872, according to an analysis by University of Minnesota political scientist Eric Ostermeier, and few of the 30 races since then have even been close."

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

From your link:

"If history is a guide, there will be no upset. The last time a Georgia congressional seat flipped in a special election was in 1872, according to an analysis by University of Minnesota political scientist Eric Ostermeier, and few of the 30 races since then have even been close."

LooseGoose wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Nedgo Uno is quite good at contradicting predictions I never made. I predicted the R by 10 and somehow his brain interpreted that as me predicting an upset by a democrat. Amazing projection once again. He's spent this entire thread arguing a prediction I never made was wrong.

LooseGoose wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Nedgo Uno is quite good at contradicting predictions I never made. I predicted the R by 10 and somehow his brain interpreted that as me predicting an upset by a democrat. Amazing projection once again. He's spent this entire thread arguing a prediction I never made was wrong.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

Nedgo Uno is quite good at contradicting predictions I never made. I predicted the R by 10 and somehow his brain interpreted that as me predicting an upset by a democrat. Amazing projection once again. He's spent this entire thread arguing a prediction I never made was wrong.

meh - knuckle-draggers will vote for the republican.

not sure how that can be spun as a referendum on the sexual predator for his supporters.. though I've never claimed to fully understand his supporters anyway.

LooseGoose wrote:A referendum on Trump in Newt's old district

Thankfully, a ruby-red Republican House district once held by Newt Gingrich — one that Republicans have consistently won ever since by 60 percentage points, but that surprisingly went for Trump only narrowly over Hillary Clinton — is about to let us know. Between April and June, the Georgia congressional district will be the first real test of whether these congressional town-hall meetings, capturing so many national headlines and so much airtime during Congress's winter recess, are real and meaningful where it counts, at the ballot box.

I don't even know who is running but I'll say the R by 10+ points.

But this will be one to watch.

NigelUno wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:meh - knuckle-draggers will vote for the republican.

not sure how that can be spun as a referendum on the sexual predator for his supporters.. though I've never claimed to fully understand his supporters anyway.

Trump didn't have great support in the district. I said that leading into the fall election. Didn't see a lot of bumper stickers or yard signs, and this is a heavily Republican district (did I mention that?).

The election in April will have nothing to do with Trump. His name isn't on the ballot. Republicans will vote Republican. Price won by over 20% points.

Again...the idea that this election has significance or is a referendum on Trump is laughable.

Some people seem to only believe what they read on the internet though.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:A referendum on Trump in Newt's old district




I don't even know who is running but I'll say the R by 10+ points.

But this will be one to watch.

Goose, just so we're clear since I know that nigel isn't always as eloquent as he'd like to be, (I'm just teasing nigel I think you're eloquent as fuck) I don't think he's taking issue with the prediction part. I think he's taking issue with the bolded part.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:A referendum on Trump in Newt's old district




I don't even know who is running but I'll say the R by 10+ points.

But this will be one to watch.

Goose, just so we're clear since I know that nigel isn't always as eloquent as he'd like to be, (I'm just teasing nigel I think you're eloquent as fuck) I don't think he's taking issue with the prediction part. I think he's taking issue with the bolded part.

NigelUno wrote:

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Goose, just so we're clear since I know that nigel isn't always as eloquent as he'd like to be, (I'm just teasing nigel I think you're eloquent as fuck) I don't think he's taking issue with the prediction part. I think he's taking issue with the bolded part.

Even the prediction part is silly. There isn't a singular "the R" candidate. There are 18 people running...11 are Republicans. "the R" candidate isn't going to win by 10 points on April 18th. It's possible the leading Democrat in polls could "win" with the most votes on April 18th (but not get 50%) and still easily lose a run off election in June.

LooseGoose wrote:

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Goose, just so we're clear since I know that nigel isn't always as eloquent as he'd like to be, (I'm just teasing nigel I think you're eloquent as fuck) I don't think he's taking issue with the prediction part. I think he's taking issue with the bolded part.

That could be, but I didn't write it.    My point on weird things happening in Specials has been proven time and time again - e.g. Scott Brown in Massachusetts.  

Another that happened long before most of you - 1974 in the Thumb of Michigan.  A house district that had elected a Dem for 8 of the previous 100 years had a special election.  A district so "Red" that Nixon actually came in and campaigned - his last such appearance - and Bob Traxler won for the Dems.   The 1st win for them since the FDR Wave elections of 1932 and 1934.   I remember the disbelief well since I was a teenager living in that district.   This was in April of '74, Nixon had roughly the same approval numbers nationally as Trump has now.

LooseGoose wrote:

I don't even know who is running but I'll say the R by 10+ points.

But this will be one to watch.

LooseGoose wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

Even the prediction part is silly.  There isn't a singular "the R" candidate.  There are 18 people running...11 are Republicans.  "the R" candidate isn't going to win by 10 points on April 18th.  It's possible the leading Democrat in polls could "win" with the most votes on April 18th (but not get 50%) and still easily lose a run off election in June.

There will eventually be a singular winner you ninny.  My prediction is that that winner will be an R by 10.  Just as I said in post #1.   There, now go argue with yourself for another 40 posts.   Make sure to remind us that since you live in the district that you can't be wrong.

NigelUno wrote:Handel will probably end up winning in June. She has the most name recognition.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

NigelUno wrote:Handel will probably end up winning in June. She has the most name recognition.

she's a messiah.

NigelUno wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

That could be, but I didn't write it.    My point on weird things happening in Specials has been proven time and time again - e.g. Scott Brown in Massachusetts.  

Another that happened long before most of you - 1974 in the Thumb of Michigan.  A house district that had elected a Dem for 8 of the previous 100 years had a special election.  A district so "Red" that Nixon actually came in and campaigned - his last such appearance - and Bob Traxler won for the Dems.   The 1st win for them since the FDR Wave elections of 1932 and 1934.   I remember the disbelief well since I was a teenager living in that district.   This was in April of '74, Nixon had roughly the same approval numbers nationally as Trump has now.

You didn't write this?  

LooseGoose wrote:

I don't even know who is running but I'll say the R by 10+ points.

But this will be one to watch.

NigelUno wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

There will eventually be a singular winner you ninny.  My prediction is that that winner will be an R by 10.  Just as I said in post #1.   There, now go argue with yourself for another 40 posts.   Make sure to remind us that since you live in the district that you can't be wrong.

In post #1 of a thread you started referring to April 18th...you think "the R" candidate will win by 10...on April 18th.

I'm curious...what do you think I'm wrong about?

And why will this be one to watch? You believe this district vote will be a referendum of Trump...because you read that on the internet?

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:A referendum on Trump in Newt's old district




I don't even know who is running but I'll say the R by 10+ points.

But this will be one to watch.

Goose, just so we're clear since I know that nigel isn't always as eloquent as he'd like to be, (I'm just teasing nigel I think you're eloquent as fuck) I don't think he's taking issue with the prediction part. I think he's taking issue with the bolded part.

LooseGoose wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

You didn't write this?  

Jeezus you're stupid.   I was telling Travis that i didn't write what HE highlighted.   Your reading comprehension seems to be on about a "Fun with Dick and Jane" level.   It's why I generally avoid responding to you.

NigelUno wrote:And why will this be one to watch? You believe this district vote will be a referendum of Trump...because you read that on the internet?

LooseGoose wrote:

NigelUno wrote:And why will this be one to watch?  You believe this district vote will be a referendum of Trump...because you read that on the internet?  

And in addition to adding "quotes" to me that I didn't say you ignore the things I do type.   The combination is maddening and I think once again I'll put you back on ignore.   I've cited 2 examples in this thread of special elections yielding weird results - Traxler '74 and Scott Brown '09.   There are many more examples to be found if it were important to do so.

In special elections last night in Connecticut, Democrats easily held on to one of their own state House seats and a state Senate seat as well.

And they came up short in trying to take over a Republican-held seat, leaving the state Senate in a tie that the Democratic lieutenant governor can break. But as in the Delaware special election over the weekend, Democratic turnout was a lot stronger than you would have expected.

The secretary of state doesn't have the official totals yet. But the unofficial tally confirms the recent surge in Democratic interest in voting and activism. Whereas the Republican candidate in Connecticut Senate District 32 got about one-third of GOP November turnout, the Democrat got more than half of his party's general election turnout. That allowed the Democrat to lose with a respectable 45 percent of the vote in a district that has gone 60-plus percent for a Republican every election since the current boundaries were first used in 2012.

This difference in turnout suggests a huge enthusiasm gap in the early Trump era, and that should alarm Republicans. The headwind the party will face in the 2018 midterm is already howling, and they need to start doing whatever they can to adjust for it.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:hey Goose - quick favor..

whenever this historically consequential election occurs, will you be sure to let us know who wins?? Please?

Robert J Sakimano wrote:hey Goose - quick favor..

whenever this historically consequential election occurs, will you be sure to let us know who wins?? Please?

LooseGoose wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:hey Goose - quick favor..

whenever this historically consequential election occurs, will you be sure to let us know who wins?? Please?

I'll be sure to do so. Though as with most elections over the last 6 years it'll likely be a Republican winning so you're bound to be disappointed.

LooseGoose wrote:

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

Many have tried before but trying to have a conversation with you is like talking to a brick wall.

Let's get back to the topic of this thread instead of talking about approval ratings or why viewing politics as right vs. left is shortsighted at best.

How does one house seat in Georgia = a referendum on Trump?

Again, I didn't say that. More words put into my mouth.  That was the headline on the article linked.   My prediction was the R by 10.  The only way the election would be a tell is if we see a narrow R win or a loss.

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:

Again, I didn't say that. More words put into my mouth.  That was the headline on the article linked.   My prediction was the R by 10.  The only way the election would be a tell is if we see a narrow R win or a loss.

You didn't say that. OK. So what? Are you now saying you don't believe that link you posted? Why post it then? The mental gymnastics you attempt are mind boggling.

Or maybe you're trying to back off this statement now that people who know the situation more than you are calling it bullshit.

LooseGoose wrote:

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:

You didn't say that. OK. So what? Are you now saying you don't believe that link you posted? Why post it then? The mental gymnastics you attempt are mind boggling.

Or maybe you're trying to back off this statement now that people who know the situation more than you are calling it bullshit.

No "gymnastics" at all, I'll stick to my prediction of the R by 10 and that if it's close or a D wins that it'll be a tell on Trump's popularity.
The only people attempting to do gymnastics are those doing the Twist with my words.

As far as believing my link is that now that standard here?   That you have to fully support/believe everything in anything you link?
If that's the case I'll be happy to point out positions that others link as "their" statements, whether they made them or not.

GRR Spartan wrote:I'll go out on a limb and predict every Republican on the ballot will win in Ottawa County in 2018 and 2020.

That's about as daring as the GOP carrying Georgia's 6th by 10 points

GRR Spartan wrote:I'll go out on a limb and predict every Republican on the ballot will win in Ottawa County in 2018 and 2020.

That's about as daring as the GOP carrying Georgia's 6th by 10 points

LooseGoose wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:I'll go out on a limb and predict every Republican on the ballot will win in Ottawa County in 2018 and 2020.

That's about as daring as the GOP carrying Georgia's 6th by 10 points

LOL.....and nowhere did I say I was being daring or bold. But carry on.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Nigel you all registered for #thefirsttest? I heard today was the last day to register. So I hope so. Anyway, I heard a democrat candidate Jon Ossoff on this podcast I listen to and he seemed like a pretty decent dude. I dunno. You should listen, guy who lives there. It's called pod save America, it's several former obama staff members (speech writers, national security spokesman, etc) that give an interesting perspective on the news which goose will call stupid stupid bullshit but the rest of you might be interested. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify.

NigelUno wrote:

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Nigel you all registered for #thefirsttest? I heard today was the last day to register. So I hope so. Anyway, I heard a democrat candidate Jon Ossoff on this podcast I listen to and he seemed like a pretty decent dude. I dunno. You should listen, guy who lives there. It's called pod save America, it's several former obama staff members (speech writers, national security spokesman, etc) that give an interesting perspective on the news which goose will call stupid stupid bullshit but the rest of you might be interested. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify.

I am a registered voter.  I don't need to listen to a podcast about my district.  I can just go outside, look around, and see if there's a storm brewing.  I'll let you know in about 10-20 minutes. Looks like a sunny, no clouds in the sky, Republican day just by glancing out the windows.