No one knows how advanced AI works

by **Watch Out Pylon!** 2017-05-15, 08:59

Countdown to Judgement Day. No one knows how advanced AI works 3775540924

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/?set=607864

by SawGreen 2017-05-15, 10:33

That is frightening.

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 15:58

Putting on the tinfoil hat...

Google Industry 4.0.

There are major changes coming that I think most people are completely oblivious to. And the autonomous vehicle (and it's technology) is one of the big drivers. If you don't plan on retiring in the next 10-15 you better understand what Industry 4.0 is and how it will impact you. Because the job you are doing right now, will probably be done by a computer in the near future.

Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth. So if you just graduated from college with an accounting degree and think you're going to retire as a CPA... you might want to rethink that. And you can pretty much do this exercise for just about every profession.

The smart degrees right now are computer programming, engineers, robotics and medical. Even medical will be taken over by artificial thinkers at some point (maybe not in our lifetimes).

If you have kids, they will probably be the last generation to get a drivers license. And if you have kids <5, odds are they will probably never drive car. Autonomous vehicles are coming faster than people think. Uber and Lyft didn't set their business model on hiring human drivers. Google is getting into this space for a reason as well. Kids now-a-days don't want to drive and soon won't have to. They are also not driven by status symbols like cars and money as much as they are by electronics and being connected. The auto industry is one of the main drivers for Industry 4.0. The technology being developed will start to spill over into every profession... and not just truck drivers, forklift drivers, package delivery, etc. Can a computer do your job or task? The answer is probably yes, even if you don't want to admit it.

If you really want to go down the worm hole, check out this guys predictions. Skip down to 2099 section where your grand kids will part cyborg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil

Krazy Kurzweil wrote:
Kurzweil writes (in 1999) that by 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence[39] and "by around 2020" this same capacity will be available "for one thousand dollars".[12] After that milestone he expects human brain scanning to contribute to an effective model of human intelligence "by the mid-2020s".[40] These two elements will culminate in computers that can pass the Turing test by 2029.[41] By the early 2030s the amount of non-biological computation will exceed the "capacity of all living biological human intelligence"......

Kurzweil says that a machine will pass the Turing test by 2029, and that around 2045, "the pace of change will be so astonishingly quick that we won't be able to keep up, unless we enhance our own intelligence by merging with the intelligent machines we are creating". Kurzweil states that humans will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological intelligence that becomes increasingly dominated by its non-biological component.

by **DWags** 2017-05-15, 16:51

Nordic wrote:Putting on the tinfoil hat...

Google Industry 4.0.

There are major changes coming that I think most people are completely oblivious to. And the autonomous vehicle (and it's technology) is one of the big drivers. If you don't plan on retiring in the next 10-15 you better understand what Industry 4.0 is and how it will impact you. Because the job you are doing right now, will probably be done by a computer in the near future.

Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth. So if you just graduated from college with an accounting degree and think you're going to retire as a CPA... you might want to rethink that. And you can pretty much do this exercise for just about every profession.

The smart degrees right now are computer programming, engineers, robotics and medical. Even medical will be taken over by artificial thinkers at some point (maybe not in our lifetimes).

If you have kids, they will probably be the last generation to get a drivers license. And if you have kids <5, odds are they will probably never drive car. Autonomous vehicles are coming faster than people think. Uber and Lyft didn't set their business model on hiring human drivers. Google is getting into this space for a reason as well. Kids now-a-days don't want to drive and soon won't have to. They are also not driven by status symbols like cars and money as much as they are by electronics and being connected. The auto industry is one of the main drivers for Industry 4.0. The technology being developed will start to spill over into every profession... and not just truck drivers, forklift drivers, package delivery, etc. Can a computer do your job or task? The answer is probably yes, even if you don't want to admit it.

If you really want to go down the worm hole, check out this guys predictions. Skip down to 2099 section where your grand kids will part cyborg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil

Krazy Kurzweil wrote:
Kurzweil writes (in 1999) that by 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence[39] and "by around 2020" this same capacity will be available "for one thousand dollars".[12] After that milestone he expects human brain scanning to contribute to an effective model of human intelligence "by the mid-2020s".[40] These two elements will culminate in computers that can pass the Turing test by 2029.[41] By the early 2030s the amount of non-biological computation will exceed the "capacity of all living biological human intelligence"......

Kurzweil says that a machine will pass the Turing test by 2029, and that around 2045, "the pace of change will be so astonishingly quick that we won't be able to keep up, unless we enhance our own intelligence by merging with the intelligent machines we are creating". Kurzweil states that humans will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological intelligence that becomes increasingly dominated by its non-biological component.

Glad I'm 55. I don't get how it's all going to work. Put enough people out of jobs with a computer and who buys the driverless cars? Who needs accountants if nobody has jobs? I don't get this so I'm hopi g somebody can theorize how this all works.

by **Watch Out Pylon!** 2017-05-15, 16:56

DWags wrote:
Nordic wrote:Putting on the tinfoil hat...

Google Industry 4.0.

There are major changes coming that I think most people are completely oblivious to. And the autonomous vehicle (and it's technology) is one of the big drivers. If you don't plan on retiring in the next 10-15 you better understand what Industry 4.0 is and how it will impact you. Because the job you are doing right now, will probably be done by a computer in the near future.

Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth. So if you just graduated from college with an accounting degree and think you're going to retire as a CPA... you might want to rethink that. And you can pretty much do this exercise for just about every profession.

The smart degrees right now are computer programming, engineers, robotics and medical. Even medical will be taken over by artificial thinkers at some point (maybe not in our lifetimes).

If you have kids, they will probably be the last generation to get a drivers license. And if you have kids <5, odds are they will probably never drive car. Autonomous vehicles are coming faster than people think. Uber and Lyft didn't set their business model on hiring human drivers. Google is getting into this space for a reason as well. Kids now-a-days don't want to drive and soon won't have to. They are also not driven by status symbols like cars and money as much as they are by electronics and being connected. The auto industry is one of the main drivers for Industry 4.0. The technology being developed will start to spill over into every profession... and not just truck drivers, forklift drivers, package delivery, etc. Can a computer do your job or task? The answer is probably yes, even if you don't want to admit it.

If you really want to go down the worm hole, check out this guys predictions. Skip down to 2099 section where your grand kids will part cyborg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil

Glad I'm 55. I don't get how it's all going to work. Put enough people out of jobs with a computer and who buys the driverless cars? Who needs accountants if nobody has jobs? I don't get this so I'm hopi g somebody can theorize how this all works.

No one knows how advanced AI works Neo-wakes-up

We'll be super efficient batteries someday.

by **Floyd Robertson** 2017-05-15, 17:18

The people going down this road really haven't thought it through, DWags. They just want To be the first to get there, damn the consequences to the human race.

by **Rocinante** 2017-05-15, 17:46

I'd rather have AI in charge than Trump. All Hail Skynet mitherfuckers.

by **DWags** 2017-05-15, 17:49

Floyd Robertson wrote:The people going down this road really haven't thought it through, DWags. They just want To be the first to get there, damn the consequences to the human race.

I agree. It will fuck with the economy not always in a positive way.

by **The Pantry** 2017-05-15, 18:26

Build a kill switch into every AI computer/machine No one knows how advanced AI works 2599972566

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 19:50

The Pantry wrote:Build a kill switch into every AI computer/machine

Machine learning, which is already happening (see the link in the OP). What if they learn how to disable the kill switch?

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 19:56

DWags wrote:
Nordic wrote:Putting on the tinfoil hat...

Google Industry 4.0.

There are major changes coming that I think most people are completely oblivious to. And the autonomous vehicle (and it's technology) is one of the big drivers. If you don't plan on retiring in the next 10-15 you better understand what Industry 4.0 is and how it will impact you. Because the job you are doing right now, will probably be done by a computer in the near future.

Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth. So if you just graduated from college with an accounting degree and think you're going to retire as a CPA... you might want to rethink that. And you can pretty much do this exercise for just about every profession.

The smart degrees right now are computer programming, engineers, robotics and medical. Even medical will be taken over by artificial thinkers at some point (maybe not in our lifetimes).

If you have kids, they will probably be the last generation to get a drivers license. And if you have kids <5, odds are they will probably never drive car. Autonomous vehicles are coming faster than people think. Uber and Lyft didn't set their business model on hiring human drivers. Google is getting into this space for a reason as well. Kids now-a-days don't want to drive and soon won't have to. They are also not driven by status symbols like cars and money as much as they are by electronics and being connected. The auto industry is one of the main drivers for Industry 4.0. The technology being developed will start to spill over into every profession... and not just truck drivers, forklift drivers, package delivery, etc. Can a computer do your job or task? The answer is probably yes, even if you don't want to admit it.

If you really want to go down the worm hole, check out this guys predictions. Skip down to 2099 section where your grand kids will part cyborg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil

Glad I'm 55. I don't get how it's all going to work. Put enough people out of jobs with a computer and who buys the driverless cars? Who needs accountants if nobody has jobs? I don't get this so I'm hopi g somebody can theorize how this all works.

I like to think what we do will evolve. Our jobs will be different, more technical and complex.

I'm on that edge. I understand it now, but it will pass me by quickly. I know it and my goal is to be retired in 10 years so I don't have to worry about it. That should be right about the time shit gets weird.

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 19:59

Spooky...

As I was typing the last post a commercial for Year Million on NatGeo @ 9pm. Supposed to be about AI and or transformation into bots.

by **The Pantry** 2017-05-15, 20:01

Nordic wrote:
The Pantry wrote:Build a kill switch into every AI computer/machine

Machine learning, which is already happening (see the link in the OP). What if they learn how to disable the kill switch?

Get what you're saying but will probably be a very long time before an electrical device is smart enough to prevent itself from being unplugged from its consciousness.

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 20:07

The Pantry wrote:
Nordic wrote:

Machine learning, which is already happening (see the link in the OP). What if they learn how to disable the kill switch?
Get what you're saying but will probably be a very long time before an electrical device is smart enough to prevent itself from being unplugged from its consciousness.

See the second paragraph in my initial post.

by **The Pantry** 2017-05-15, 20:15

Nordic wrote:
The Pantry wrote:Get what you're saying but will probably be a very long time before an electrical device is smart enough to prevent itself from being unplugged from its consciousness.

See the second paragraph in my initial post.

Not sure what you're getting at. Googled "Google Industry 4.0" but didn't find anything incriminating. Should I try using Bing?

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 20:38

The Pantry wrote:
Nordic wrote:

See the second paragraph in my initial post.
Not sure what you're getting at. Googled "Google Industry 4.0" but didn't find anything incriminating. Should I try using Bing?

Sorry, I meant this one....

...Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth.....

by **The Pantry** 2017-05-15, 22:10

Nordic wrote:
The Pantry wrote:
Not sure what you're getting at. Googled "Google Industry 4.0" but didn't find anything incriminating. Should I try using Bing?

Sorry, I meant this one....

...Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth.....

Do you have a link or is this your own proclamation?

There are major changes coming that I think most people are completely oblivious to. And the autonomous vehicle (and it's technology) is one of the big drivers. If you don't plan on retiring in the next 10-15 you better understand what Industry 4.0 is and how it will impact you. Because the job you are doing right now, will probably be done by a computer in the near future.

Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth. So if you just graduated from college with an accounting degree and think you're going to retire as a CPA... you might want to rethink that. And you can pretty much do this exercise for just about every profession.

The smart degrees right now are computer programming, engineers, robotics and medical. Even medical will be taken over by artificial thinkers at some point (maybe not in our lifetimes).

If you have kids, they will probably be the last generation to get a drivers license. And if you have kids <5, odds are they will probably never drive car. Autonomous vehicles are coming faster than people think. Uber and Lyft didn't set their business model on hiring human drivers. Google is getting into this space for a reason as well. Kids now-a-days don't want to drive and soon won't have to. They are also not driven by status symbols like cars and money as much as they are by electronics and being connected. The auto industry is one of the main drivers for Industry 4.0. The technology being developed will start to spill over into every profession... and not just truck drivers, forklift drivers, package delivery, etc. Can a computer do your job or task? The answer is probably yes, even if you don't want to admit it.

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 22:36

Nordic wrote:Spooky...

As I was typing the last post a commercial for Year Million on NatGeo @ 9pm. Supposed to be about AI and or transformation into bots.

Yikes. That show was exactly what I was talking about.

by **Nordic** 2017-05-15, 22:42

The Pantry wrote:
Nordic wrote:

Sorry, I meant this one....

...Processing power doubles with respect to cost every 18 months. By 2050 (or before) a single computer will be able to perform the task of all the humans on the Earth.....
Do you have a link or is this your own proclamation?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page70.html

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/moore-s-law-keeps-going-defying-expectations/

by **By-Tor** 2017-05-16, 12:01

How will the simple things in life be affected? An ice cream cone on a Sunday afternoon. The sound of a baseball hitting a wooden bat. A hometown parade. The softness of a woman's inner thigh. That's the kind of stuff I care more about as I hit middle age. If any of that mumbo jumbo above is true then I will seek a small town Main Street America lifestyle in my golden years. Where everybody knows your name.

by **Rocinante** 2017-05-16, 13:16

I could not be less worried about something than I am about AI.

by **DWags** 2017-05-16, 13:31

By-Tor wrote:How will the simple things in life be affected? An ice cream cone on a Sunday afternoon. The sound of a baseball hitting a wooden bat. A hometown parade. The softness of a woman's inner thigh. That's the kind of stuff I care more about as I hit middle age. If any of that mumbo jumbo above is true then I will seek a small town Main Street America lifestyle in my golden years. Where everybody knows your name.

Thing is, how do we do all that with no jobs?

by **Watch Out Pylon!** 2017-05-16, 13:32

Rocinante wrote:I could not be less worried about something than I am about AI.

Well, he has been retired since something like 2010.

by **Rocinante** 2017-05-16, 14:16

DWags wrote:
By-Tor wrote:How will the simple things in life be affected? An ice cream cone on a Sunday afternoon. The sound of a baseball hitting a wooden bat. A hometown parade. The softness of a woman's inner thigh. That's the kind of stuff I care more about as I hit middle age. If any of that mumbo jumbo above is true then I will seek a small town Main Street America lifestyle in my golden years. Where everybody knows your name.

Thing is, how do we do all that with no jobs?

We're already rapidly approaching a need for a basic income. Capitalism is failing man.

by **Nordic** 2017-05-16, 14:23

Rocinante wrote:I could not be less worried about something than I am about AI.

Old people need not worry. We'll be dead and it will be up to the Millennials and their kids to figure out.

We will probably be the last generation to actually die (that kinda sucks...we just missed immortality).

by **Watch Out Pylon!** 2017-05-16, 14:33

Nordic wrote:
Rocinante wrote:I could not be less worried about something than I am about AI.

Old people need not worry. We'll be dead and it will be up to the Millennials and their kids to figure out.

We will probably be the last generation to actually die (that kinda sucks...we just missed immortality).

Don't worry. Our kids will be able to reboot us.

by **Floyd Robertson** 2017-10-28, 07:12

Watch a couple of Zeynep Tufekci's TED talks and it underscores that no one knows how the black boxes of neural network/logistic regression we're building actually work in the age of so many data points

We're building a dystopia just to make people click on ads

The unintended consequences are alarming.

She's a pretty good follow on Twitter.

by **Turtleneck** 2017-10-28, 08:01

That’s really fascinating, Floyd. Thanks for posting the link.

by **Floyd Robertson** 2017-10-28, 08:23

Turtleneck wrote:That’s really fascinating, Floyd. Thanks for posting the link.

My pleasure. Watch some of her other stuff from the past 3-4 years. She's pretty damn smart and a good presenter.

by Clarett's Folly 2017-10-28, 09:29

I'd better start prepping the kids for a Butlerian Jihad now.

by **Turtleneck** 2017-10-28, 09:35

Floyd Robertson wrote:
Turtleneck wrote:That’s really fascinating, Floyd. Thanks for posting the link.

My pleasure. Watch some of her other stuff from the past 3-4 years. She's pretty damn smart and a good presenter.

I'm think I know what book I'm reading next.

by **Floyd Robertson** 2017-11-06, 15:26

Turtleneck wrote:
Floyd Robertson wrote:

My pleasure. Watch some of her other stuff from the past 3-4 years. She's pretty damn smart and a good presenter.

I'm think I know what book I'm reading next.

Zeynep on Risky Biz with Patrick Grey

Risky Biz is a pretty good weekly Infosec podcast and Zeynep was on there last week.

by Bill Cain 2017-11-07, 17:53

The question is, what can humans do that AI can't do?

by **tGreenWay** 2017-11-07, 19:29

I knew an Al once. He didn't seem too advanced, except in age.

Hi-oh!!!

by **Turtleneck** 2017-11-07, 19:32

tGreenWay wrote:I knew an Al once. He didn't seem too advanced, except in age.

Hi-oh!!!

No one knows how advanced AI works GIF--Not-Impressed-Eww-Euw-Awful-Bad-Clint-Eastwood-disgust-GIF

by **tGreenWay** 2017-11-07, 21:22

Turtleneck wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:I knew an Al once. He didn't seem too advanced, except in age.

Hi-oh!!!

Bad example, Turtleneck. That geezer thinks chairs have ears.

by **Turtleneck** 2017-11-07, 21:40

tGreenWay wrote:
Turtleneck wrote:

Bad example, Turtleneck. That geezer thinks chairs have ears.

He would fit right in at your EL Shuffleboard gatherings. When do you leave for Florida?

by **y2kMgrad** 2017-11-07, 21:40

This shit blows my mind.

by **Turtleneck** 2017-11-07, 21:47

y2kMgrad wrote:This shit blows my mind.

It's just a .gif y2k.

by **y2kMgrad** 2017-11-07, 22:28

Turtleneck wrote:
y2kMgrad wrote:This shit blows my mind.

It's just a .gif y2k.

Those things blow my mind too, with all their loops and stuff. Sometimes I'll watch them for hours to see if they ever get tired of playing.

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