Stagflation - looks like we have it.

Bad GDP number and inflation at a 30 year high. Yep, looks like we have stagflation.

Thanks President Xiden.

You’re living in your own private Idaho

Jesus, like any r has had a handle on economics for the last 40 years... bizzaro-world.

Rocinante wrote:You’re living in your own private Idaho

What's wrong with Idaho?

AvgMSUJoe wrote:Jesus, like any r has had a handle on economics for the last 40 years... bizzaro-world.

Inflation under the last president (R)?
Inflation under the current president (D)?

RQA wrote:

AvgMSUJoe wrote:Jesus, like any r has had a handle on economics for the last 40 years... bizzaro-world.

Inflation under the last president (R)?
Inflation under the current president (D)?

As I said, bizzaro world... like fucking inflation during a worldwide pandemic is something we can even study prior to the last two years... you're paying like the old R playbook is relevant.
Inflation used to be a function of the amount of cash in the economy... this one is due to supply chain issues based on demand from the pandemic....
So... throwing out terms and numbers that are irrelevant and incapable of being manipulated by the govt is just looking for an excuse to bicker. Unless you want to discus trumps employment numbers after his shitty stimulus payoff to the billionaires...

AvgMSUJoe wrote:

RQA wrote:

Inflation under the last president (R)?
Inflation under the current president (D)?

As I said, bizzaro world... like fucking inflation during a worldwide pandemic is something we can even study prior to the last two years... you're paying like the old R playbook is relevant.
Inflation used to be a function of the amount of cash in the economy... this one is due to supply chain issues based on demand from the pandemic....
So... throwing out terms and numbers that are irrelevant and incapable of being manipulated by the govt is just looking for an excuse to bicker. Unless you want to discus trumps employment numbers after his shitty stimulus payoff to the billionaires...

There has been about a 5% one time jump in the CPI.  However, since the most frequently reported CPI number is one which compares prices from one year ago with prices this month, for each month forward from the 5% jump until 12 months have passed the yearly price increase is reported as  a 5% increase.

Thus, RQA gets all hot and bothered each month about a price jump which happened in the first quarter of 2021.

As for the third quarter GDP, annualized to a 2% increase, well a 2% increase is about what the economy has averaged over the last 20 years, so it is about average. Economists were expecting much more earlier in the year before the supply couldn't keep up with the demand.

GDP, annualized, increase in Q1 was 6.4%
GDP, annualized, increase in Q2 was 6.7%
GDP, annualized, increase in Q3 was 2.0%

Those three quarters together have an annualized GDP of just over 5%, which is a really high, and probably unsustainable, growth rate.

RQA wrote:

AvgMSUJoe wrote:Jesus, like any r has had a handle on economics for the last 40 years... bizzaro-world.

Inflation under the last president (R)?
Inflation under the current president (D)?

RQA, this is really not a place you want to get into.  

By many measures such as employment Trump was a disaster due to covid.

Furthermore, until Biden has a complete term the comparison is meaningless.

CPI under Trump increased by 7.5%, and the number is lower than it might have been, due to covid

AvgMSUJoe wrote:

RQA wrote:

Inflation under the last president (R)?
Inflation under the current president (D)?

As I said, bizzaro world... like fucking inflation during a worldwide pandemic is something we can even study prior to the last two years... you're paying like the old R playbook is relevant.
Inflation used to be a function of the amount of cash in the economy... this one is due to supply chain issues based on demand from the pandemic....
So... throwing out terms and numbers that are irrelevant and incapable of being manipulated by the govt is just looking for an excuse to bicker. Unless you want to discus trumps employment numbers after his shitty stimulus payoff to the billionaires...

So you are admitting that we have stagflation under the current (D) president that we didn't have under the last (R) president?

Baby steps........

TrapperGus wrote:

RQA wrote:

Inflation under the last president (R)?
Inflation under the current president (D)?

CPI under Trump increased by 7.5%, and the number is lower than it might have been, due to covid

Trump was president for 4 years. Under President Xiden the CPI is up at least 7.5% in 9 months!

You say inflation was low under Trump due to Covid. Your buddy AveJoe says inflation is high under Xiden due to Covid. Get together and agree on your story.

RQA wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

CPI under Trump increased by 7.5%, and the number is lower than it might have been, due to covid

Trump was president for 4 years.  Under President Xiden the CPI is up at least 7.5% in 9 months!

You say inflation was low under Trump due to Covid.  Your buddy AveJoe says inflation is high under Xiden due to Covid.   Get together and agree on your story.  

I gave you the numbers for the price increase during Trump but didn't call it high or low.

RQA has a long history of claiming deficits are bad when a Democrat is in The White House and don’t matter when it’s a Republican.

TrapperGus wrote:

RQA wrote:

Trump was president for 4 years.  Under President Xiden the CPI is up at least 7.5% in 9 months!

You say inflation was low under Trump due to Covid.  Your buddy AveJoe says inflation is high under Xiden due to Covid.   Get together and agree on your story.  

I gave you the numbers for the price increase during Trump but didn't call it high or low.

Less than 2% per year. I would venture to say that most would call that low.

GRR Spartan wrote:RQA has a long history of claiming deficits are bad when a Democrat is in The White House and don’t matter when it’s a Republican.

Dishonest posting comes naturally to you GRR.

RQA wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

I gave you the numbers for the price increase during Trump but didn't call it high or low.

Less than 2% per year.   I would venture to say that most would call that low.  

Did you run a poll to determine that?

Try to not just make stuff up, please.

GW Bush - 3.1% yearly average
B Obama - 1.8% yearly average
D Trump - 1.9% yearly average

So Trump was the same as Obama, and Bush was higher.

Biden we just don't know, yet, we have to wait another 7 years and 3 months.

However, right now the CPI is up 4.5% from the day he was sworn in, so you are incorrect in your statement comparing his number right now to the total CPI increase during Trump's rule.

RQA wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:RQA has a long history of claiming deficits are bad when a Democrat is in The White House and don’t matter when it’s a Republican.

Dishonest posting comes naturally to you GRR.

I had hoped you would leave Wells over on the RCMB.

TrapperGus wrote:

RQA wrote:



Dishonest posting comes naturally to you GRR.  

I had hoped you would leave Wells over on the RCMB.

Sorry, if someone lies about my posting history I am going to call them out on it.

RQA wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

I had hoped you would leave Wells over on the RCMB.

Sorry, if someone lies about my posting history I am going to call them out on it.

So what is your excuse with your attack of GRR?

You have shown the tendency, on Wells, he noted.

Turn the other cheek, turn over a new leaf, whatever, but don't bring your Wells posting style over here.

Cameron wrote:Not to take sides, but if someone is being called out for their posting history on Wells, it's unreasonable to accuse them of being the ones not leaving Wells behind.

I disagree, because ...

GRR's post was a factual opinion about RQA's posting content on Wells.

RQA responded with a personal attack on GRR.

The response to a comment with a personal attack is totally Wells, while the comment on posting style is also a Wells meme the "call and response" which devolves into a thread of trading insults back and forth (internet message board masturbation) is driven by the poster who starts the personal insults.

That said I did call out GRR in a different thread about what he is doing.

Cameron wrote:"GRR's post was a factual opinion"

Weak sauce, Gus.

Perhaps - I tend to understate the situation in arguments.

IMO GRR's post was correct, however, to be fair to RQA I tempered that.

Not sure if you spent much time on Wells, so if you are commenting on my hedging or the situation on Wells itself.

The Average CPI for a few more President Administrations ...

Trump  - 1.9%
Obama - 1.8%
G Bush - 3.1%
Clinton - 2.8%
GHWB  - 4.4%
Reagan - 4.8%
Carter - 11.8%
Ford     - 7.0%
Nixon   - 7.4%
LBJ      - 2.6%
JFK      - 1.1%
Ike      - 1.5%

In CPI order

JFK      - 1.1%
Ike      - 1.5%
Obama - 1.8%
Trump  - 1.9%
LBJ      - 2.6%
Clinton - 2.8%
G Bush - 3.1%
GHWB  - 4.4%
Reagan - 4.8%
Ford     - 7.0%
Nixon   - 7.4%
Carter - 11.8%

Probably should split into before and after Nixon floated the dollar.

With Carter as the outlier the Republicans seem to dominate the higher CPI increases.

Stagflation was pretty much all of the 1970's, so Nixon, Ford & Carter. (and who knew that Ford's WIN effort actually had an effect?)

Just to point out, real GDP (inflation adjusted) averaged 3.85% in the 1970's

The GDP growth was mostly zero during 1974 & 1975

Stagflation really wasn't very stagnate.

TrapperGus wrote:

RQA wrote:

Sorry, if someone lies about my posting history I am going to call them out on it.

So what is your excuse with your attack of GRR?

You have shown the tendency, on Wells, he noted.

Turn the other cheek, turn over a new leaf, whatever, but don't bring your Wells posting style over here.

My "attack" on GRR was in response to his lie about my posting history.

I think the massive runup in public debt will become problematic at some point if it is not already. I have no (that would be ZERO) history of supporting deficit spending under any president (R or D). I support a balanced budget amendment as the only way to fix this problem.

If you want to attack, dispute or argue with my views, have at it. But don't lie about what they are and then expect some sort of milk toast response from me

RQA wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

So what is your excuse with your attack of GRR?

You have shown the tendency, on Wells, he noted.

Turn the other cheek, turn over a new leaf, whatever, but don't bring your Wells posting style over here.

My "attack" on GRR was in response to his lie about my posting history.    

I think the massive runup in public debt will become problematic at some point if it is not already.   I have no (that would be ZERO) history of supporting deficit spending under any president (R or D).    I support a balanced budget amendment as the only way to fix this problem.

If you want to attack, dispute or argue with my views, have at it.   But don't lie about what they are and then expect some sort of milk toast response from me

This isn't Wells, it wasn't a lie, and you need to chill and fit in a little better. I agree that GRR shouldn't be pushing your buttons, but it takes two being assholes to fuck things up on a message board.

As for your view on public debt, well perhaps at some point it might be an issue, however advanced countries have run with debt levels over 200% of GDP for decades without significant issues so the US has a way to go before it might be an issue.

TrapperGus wrote:

RQA wrote:

My "attack" on GRR was in response to his lie about my posting history.    

I think the massive runup in public debt will become problematic at some point if it is not already.   I have no (that would be ZERO) history of supporting deficit spending under any president (R or D).    I support a balanced budget amendment as the only way to fix this problem.

If you want to attack, dispute or argue with my views, have at it.   But don't lie about what they are and then expect some sort of milk toast response from me

This isn't Wells, it wasn't a lie, and you need to chill and fit in a little better.

It is an outright LIE. I argued against massive deficit spending no matter the political party of the president. Sad that you choose to join GRR attributing views to me that I don't hold.

If there is some badness drifting into this board from WH it is coming from posters like GRR and you who just can't be satisfied with a honest debate.

I am not going to "chill" about dishonest posters. If that is what you expect it would be best that you choose not to engage with me.

RQA wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

This isn't Wells, it wasn't a lie, and you need to chill and fit in a little better.  

It is an outright LIE.   I argued against massive deficit spending no matter the political party of the president.   Sad that you choose to join GRR attributing views to me that I don't hold.

If there is some badness drifting into this board from WH it is coming from posters like GRR and you who just can't be satisfied with a honest debate.  

I am not going to "chill" about dishonest posters.    If that is what you expect it would be best that you choose not to engage with me.

Your silence as the Republicans passed their massive, deficit & debt explosion of a tax cuts during the G Bush & D Trump administrations was clearly seen.  You appear to be actively against debt and deficits only when Democratic Presidents are in office.  You should have been screaming on Wells during Bush and Trump to toss them and all the Republicans out of office because of their debt busting ways but you were not.

To the point of this thread -

Stagflation wasn't really what people make it out to have been, as the data I have been posting shows.  Higher inflation, but much higher GDP growth (stagflation is high inflation with low GDP growth, which only happened for 2 years, 1974/75)

And, even if you just want to talk about inflation, looking at a one time bump back in the spring of 2021, and the year to year numbers are higher due to the 2020 CPI numbers being below the trend for those months, and panicking like you are is silly as is comparing 9 months of performance to 4 or 8 years.

RQA wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:RQA has a long history of claiming deficits are bad when a Democrat is in The White House and don’t matter when it’s a Republican.

Dishonest posting comes naturally to you GRR.

Calling others dishonest is so Trumpian..

TrapperGus wrote:

RQA wrote:

It is an outright LIE.   I argued against massive deficit spending no matter the political party of the president.   Sad that you choose to join GRR attributing views to me that I don't hold.

If there is some badness drifting into this board from WH it is coming from posters like GRR and you who just can't be satisfied with a honest debate.  

I am not going to "chill" about dishonest posters.    If that is what you expect it would be best that you choose not to engage with me.

Your silence as the Republicans passed their massive, deficit & debt explosion of a tax cuts during the G Bush & D Trump administrations was clearly seen.  You appear to be actively against debt and deficits only when Democratic Presidents are in office.  You should have been screaming on Wells during Bush and Trump to toss them and all the Republicans out of office because of their debt busting ways but you were not.

Continued lying about my posting history. Is that all you've got?

My position about deficit spending has been clear. No matter the party of the president and no matter how much the revenue, the feds will spend more than they take in. The only way to stop this is a balanced budget amendment.

RQA wrote:

TrapperGus wrote:

Your silence as the Republicans passed their massive, deficit & debt explosion of a tax cuts during the G Bush & D Trump administrations was clearly seen.  You appear to be actively against debt and deficits only when Democratic Presidents are in office.  You should have been screaming on Wells during Bush and Trump to toss them and all the Republicans out of office because of their debt busting ways but you were not.

Continued lying about my posting history.   Is that all you've got?

My position about deficit spending has been clear.   No matter the party of the president and no matter how much the revenue, the feds will spend more than they take in.    The only way to stop this is a balanced budget amendment.

All you have as a poster is provocational posting accusing others of what you yourself do.

You seldom engage in a rational discussion to support the positions you advocate.

The point about your posting style being made is that if you believed in your heart that the BBA was the most important policy then you would have attacked, with vigor, the Republican Tax Cut Bills, and conversely, you would support, with vigor, the times when the Democratic Bills have Paygo as the BBB does.

My opinion of the BBA as a concept is that it is fool's gold put forth by Conservatives to try to stop progress they don't like  in the country, much like a commodity based (gold) monetary system. It also lacks any economic understanding, especially about what money is and how a government should manage it.

I'll never forgive Biden for the last four budgets and corporate tax breaks he signed into law. Bastard.

Same people that predicted a stock market crash 2 months into Bidens presidency. Cool that seems to be going well.

The Delta variant’s impact on the economy is receding into the past — business activity surged in October, per a closely watched index.

Driving the news: The ISM Services PMI, an index that measures all nonmanufacturing activity, jumped by a record 4.8 points to a reading of 66.7 (also an all-time record high).

https://www.axios.com/business-activity-economy-delta-variant-effects-a4be74f4-0984-4428-aef5-8d801c032efe.html

I love when people parrot the Fox News talking points that turn out to be complete trash.

Motown Spartan wrote:I love when people parrot the Fox News talking points that turn out to be complete trash.

Inflation is a Fox News talking point?

The faux Christian schtick whose calls himself RQA here and Wells before it shut down loves the philandering thrice married real estate mogul who couldn’t make money owning casinos and whose 2017 Tax Act created huge deficits.

But Trump toadies want to put him back in The White House so he can get more Russian investment money