Stagflation - looks like we have it.

AvgMSUJoe wrote:Huh... those "in the know" seem to be over it all....

[tw]1471168696336982022[/tw]

Paul Krugman bragging about the inflation during President Trump's administration! He knows that the average leftie is too dumb to realize this.

RQA wrote:

Paul Krugman bragging about the inflation during President Trump's administration! He knows that the average leftie is too dumb to realize this.

Apparently, you think that 21 days of rising inflation numbers when Trump had tanked the economy with his piss poor response to covid are the numbers for the entirety of his term.

Trapper Gus wrote:

RQA wrote:

Paul Krugman bragging about the inflation during President Trump's administration! He knows that the average leftie is too dumb to realize this.

Apparently, you think that 21 days of rising inflation numbers when Trump had tanked the economy with his piss poor response to covid are the numbers for the entirety of his term.

Krugman's chart is a 5-year aggregate.

RQA wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Apparently, you think that 21 days of rising inflation numbers when Trump had tanked the economy with his piss poor response to covid are the numbers for the entirety of his term.

Krugman's chart is a 5-year aggregate.  

Sure, expectations of future inflation rates, which provide no information about the actions during the Trump administration at on rates at all, so you claiming they do is even more odd.  As is typical when people look at the estimates of the markets, they want to confuse cause and effect timeframes.  All the graph shows are that the markets expect the inflation to be transitory.

edit - also like many graphs of this sort, the scale causes confusion.  The expected inflation starts at 1.8% (below the Fed target) and peaks as 3.2% before dropping down to 2.6%.  Not exactly inflation rates to have a cow over.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-inflation-gauge-hits-fresh-39-year-high-as-prices-soar-higher

Inflation at a 39 year high.

Trapper and AveJoe? "But Dr. Krugman....."

RQA wrote:https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-inflation-gauge-hits-fresh-39-year-high-as-prices-soar-higher

Inflation at a 39 year high.

Trapper and AveJoe?   "But Dr. Krugman....."

You are talking about the same numbers, is a slightly different form, which were reported a couple of weeks ago.  This is basically fish wrap.

Year to year price numbers is pretty meaningless following a year of price deflation.

A fact that many don't understand.  The Fed has to act because they act partly on public perception.  That and they are looking at the month-to-month numbers.

Here is a much better link - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-latest-read-on-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-11640265116

Since wages, year-to-year, for the lower earners have increased at above 10% since April, until October when they were above 9.5% higher, inflation really isn't as big economically as it might seem.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

The spike in inflation justifies the Fed’s pivot earlier this month away from its dovish policy stance, analysts said. Economists don’t think inflation will peak until after several more months. The Fed has penciled in three rate hikes for 2022.

I would guess the year-to-year numbers drop in April/May, which is when they jumped last year due to the deflation in prices the year before.

What we are seeing is two years of inflation reported as one year of inflation because of how the numbers are reported.

TrapperGus wrote:The Average CPI for a few more President Administrations ...

Trump  - 1.9%
Obama - 1.8%
G Bush - 3.1%
Clinton - 2.8%
GHWB  - 4.4%
Reagan - 4.8%
Carter - 11.8%
Ford     - 7.0%
Nixon   - 7.4%
LBJ      - 2.6%
JFK      - 1.1%
Ike      - 1.5%

In CPI order

JFK      - 1.1%
Ike      - 1.5%
Obama - 1.8%
Trump  - 1.9%
LBJ      - 2.6%
Clinton - 2.8%
G Bush - 3.1%
GHWB  - 4.4%
Reagan - 4.8%
Ford     - 7.0%
Nixon   - 7.4%
Carter - 11.8%

Probably should split into before and after Nixon floated the dollar.

With Carter as the outlier the Republicans seem to dominate the higher CPI increases.

Stagflation was pretty much all of the 1970's, so Nixon, Ford & Carter. (and who knew that Ford's WIN effort actually had an effect?)

Think I should bump this as a certain poster is hung up on CPI per President.

Seems like we are having the same discussion over and over, just like trying to converse with a certain set of posters in the past, where they ignore anything deeper than a click bait headline.

Trapper you are a leftist propagandist pure and simple.

The truth is that we have the highest inflation rate in almost 40 years.

You are alternating between denying this fact or claiming it doesn't matter.

RQA wrote:Trapper you are a leftist propagandist pure and simple.

The truth is that we have the highest inflation rate in almost 40 years.

You are alternating between denying this fact or claiming it doesn't matter.

And it’s not affecting anyone because jobs are plentiful and stimulus funds have compensated for the rise in prices. It’s a nothingburger.

RQA wrote:Trapper you are a leftist propagandist pure and simple.  

The truth is that we have the highest inflation rate in almost 40 years.

You are alternating between denying this fact or claiming it doesn't matter.

I've stopped trying to teach you math since in your mind if we start at point A, go 2 miles west, then 5 miles east we are 5 miles further east than we have ever been.

edit - furthermore, if we report we are 5 miles further east on tuesday, and repeat that report on wednesday, thursday & friday, you seem to think we are 20 miles further east when we haven't moved since tuesday.

Economy is great. Thank you Joe!

PennSpartan wrote:

RQA wrote:Trapper you are a leftist propagandist pure and simple.

The truth is that we have the highest inflation rate in almost 40 years.

You are alternating between denying this fact or claiming it doesn't matter.

And it’s not affecting anyone because jobs are plentiful and stimulus funds have compensated for the rise in prices. It’s a nothingburger.

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain"

Trapper Gus wrote:

RQA wrote:Trapper you are a leftist propagandist pure and simple.  

The truth is that we have the highest inflation rate in almost 40 years.

You are alternating between denying this fact or claiming it doesn't matter.

I've stopped trying to teach you math since in your mind if we start at point A, go 2 miles west, then 5 miles east we are 5 miles further east than we have ever been.

edit - furthermore, if we report we are 5 miles further east on tuesday, and repeat that report on wednesday, thursday & friday, you seem to think we are 20 miles further east when we haven't moved since tuesday.

Every sane person: "we have the highest inflation in almost 40 years"

Trapper: 1. No we don't OR 2. It doesn't matter. Depends on the day!

RQA wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

I've stopped trying to teach you math since in your mind if we start at point A, go 2 miles west, then 5 miles east we are 5 miles further east than we have ever been.

edit - furthermore, if we report we are 5 miles further east on tuesday, and repeat that report on wednesday, thursday & friday, you seem to think we are 20 miles further east when we haven't moved since tuesday.

Every sane person:   "we have the highest inflation in almost 40 years"

Trapper:   1.  No we don't   OR  2.   It doesn't matter.      Depends on the day!

Incorrect on both ideas.  I have said neither of those.

What I have said is that the year-to-year numbers can confuse what is happening, which is always true for economic measurements, and that it is better to watch the month-to month numbers.

btw I thought this thread was about stagflation which is when there is inflation and no GDP growth.  With GDP growth projected to be above 6% for the year, twice as high as any Trump year, seems like that idea is dead, which is why this thread has turned into an inflation thread only.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

FWIW some economists were predicting 7.1% year to year inflation.

The first look at the December inflation picture will come tomorrow, courtesy of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forecasted to have increased 0.4% month-over-month (m/m) following November's 0.7% jump, while the core rate, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have gained 0.5% m/m. - https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/schwab-market-update

Maybe the cure is to NOT pass a Biden backed budget and renew last year's. Let midterm Republicans run on the Trump economy. But that would put messaging in Democrats hands.

kingstonlake wrote:Maybe the cure is to NOT pass a Biden backed budget and renew last year's. Let midterm Republicans run on the Trump economy. But that would put messaging in Democrats hands.

Maybe the cure is to change the way that anti-trust is enforced so that we don't have just a few companies controlling the pricing with the ability to increase prices without competition.

edits -

Or maybe the US Congress should stop passing huge unfunded increases to the Defense Department.

The BBB, by to way, is pretty much paid for with revenue increases, a pay for balanced budget, thus it has little inflationary effect by itself.

Just a note that the rate of inflation increase is falling ... 0.9% October, 0.8% in November, 0.5% in December

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/12/economy/inflation-consumer-price-index-december/index.html

Let's Go Brandon!

Fuk u RQA you deceitful phoney Christian.

No “Christian” or “Patriot say Fuck you except you and your ther church going hypocrites who thinks lying is situationally acceptable.

Can I nominate GRR Spartan & PennSpartan as the grumpy old men of tSwill?

GRR Spartan wrote:Fuk u RQA you deceitful phoney Christian.

No “Christian” or “Patriot say Fuck you except you and your ther church going hypocrites who thinks lying is situationally acceptable.

Metamucil didn't work today?

Okay, I'll add RQA to the grumpy old man list ...

U.S. equities managed to add on to yesterday’s gains as consumer price inflation showed a modest increase month-over-month, and the year-over-year headline figure came in line with expectations ...

Prices of used cars and trucks were the second-biggest driver — after shelter — of the monthly increase in consumer prices in December, responsible for almost a quarter of the change.


https://www.axios.com/inflation-used-car-prices-surge-043eafe2-d3c4-49a9-9cf8-7ceba234a73a.html

Trapper Gus wrote:Okay, I'll add RQA to the grumpy old man list ...

I've been called racist, homophope, and bigot around here.

But that really hurts!

RQA wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:Okay, I'll add RQA to the grumpy old man list ...

I've been called racist, homophope, and bigot around here.

But that really hurts!  

Just pointing out that you three are leading the way on "shouting at the clouds" posts.

However, on topic ...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Prices at the wholesale level surged by a record 9.7% for all of 2021, setting an annual record and providing further evidence that inflation is still present at all levels of the U.S. economy.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index, which measures inflation before it reaches consumers, did slow on a monthly basis, rising just 0.2% in December compared with November, when prices had shot up 1%.

...

Core inflation at the wholesale level, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.5% on a monthly basis in December, down from a 0.9% gain in November. Core prices rose 8.3% during the 12 months ending in December.

The slowdown in overall inflation at the wholesale level was attributed to a big 3.3% fall in energy prices and a smaller 0.6% dip in food costs.

...

While the wholesale price gains in December came in below expectations, economists cautioned that the country still has some rough months ahead on the inflation front.

“Persistent supply disruptions will pin producer prices near record levels in the near term, especially given a rapidly spreading omicron variant that will fan inflation pressures,” said Kathy Bosjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. She said Thursday’s report supported the view that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in March.

The price increases at both the wholesale and retail levels have been attributed in large part to snarled supply chains at a time of surging demand.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-economy-prices-inflation-4849c1e0301c226d480049c17c5aa88c

https://www.axios.com/corporate-america-earnings-profit-wall-street-8ddf9e3a-4f41-4f51-a002-312b27b3a35d.html

The big picture: So far, corporate America has had a very good pandemic.

Though profits initially took a hit in 2020, they rebounded to what was almost certainly record highs last year. (We won't know for sure until the new batch of numbers, which cover the last three months of 2021, are in.)

RQA wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:Okay, I'll add RQA to the grumpy old man list ...

I've been called racist, homophope, and bigot around here.

But that really hurts!

Calling you a racist probably hurts you as much as calling me a 6ft male.

https://theovershoot.co/p/understanding-covid-flation

After a long absence, 2021 was the year that inflation finally returned to the rich world.

Or was it?

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 7% last year—faster than in any 12-month span since the early 1980s—but most of the excess inflation can be pinned on a handful of categories that account for a small fraction of the total index. If the prices of just a few specific items had grown at their pre-pandemic pace, instead of jumping by 50% or more, inflation in 2021 would have been remarkably close to the 1995-2019 average.

The good news is that what happened last year was the confluence of several distinct forces largely attributable to the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic. As the public health situation normalizes and the shocks of the past two years fade, so too should the rate of price increases.1

Trapper Gus wrote:https://theovershoot.co/p/understanding-covid-flation

After a long absence, 2021 was the year that inflation finally returned to the rich world.

Or was it?

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 7% last year—faster than in any 12-month span since the early 1980s—but most of the excess inflation can be pinned on a handful of categories that account for a small fraction of the total index. If the prices of just a few specific items had grown at their pre-pandemic pace, instead of jumping by 50% or more, inflation in 2021 would have been remarkably close to the 1995-2019 average.

The good news is that what happened last year was the confluence of several distinct forces largely attributable to the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic. As the public health situation normalizes and the shocks of the past two years fade, so too should the rate of price increases.1

That's what we call transitory.

Motown Spartan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:https://theovershoot.co/p/understanding-covid-flation

After a long absence, 2021 was the year that inflation finally returned to the rich world.

Or was it?

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 7% last year—faster than in any 12-month span since the early 1980s—but most of the excess inflation can be pinned on a handful of categories that account for a small fraction of the total index. If the prices of just a few specific items had grown at their pre-pandemic pace, instead of jumping by 50% or more, inflation in 2021 would have been remarkably close to the 1995-2019 average.

The good news is that what happened last year was the confluence of several distinct forces largely attributable to the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic. As the public health situation normalizes and the shocks of the past two years fade, so too should the rate of price increases.1

That's what we call transitory.

You all need to learn what it is you are being told.,,

The Headline Inflation number each month is the year-to-year number ...

Thus, if as happened, the prices jump in March and April, by 5% to 6% and then remain at those levels for the rest of the year, each month's year-to-year numbers are reporting the March/April jump. When March/April 2022 comes aroung the year-to-year numbers drop back down to inflation without the one-time jump.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Motown Spartan wrote:

That's what we call transitory.

You all need to learn what it is you are being told.,,

The Headline Inflation number each month is the year-to-year number ...

Thus, if as happened, the prices jump in March and April, by 5% to 6% and then remain at those levels for the rest of the year, each month's year-to-year numbers are reporting the March/April jump. When March/April 2022 comes aroung the year-to-year numbers drop back down to inflation without the one-time jump.

I...I get it.

Well, I think I do, and we will see what happens in March / April / May ...

What I expect is a bunch of cheering about how the Fed's actions have cured inflation, when it is just math ...

The US inflation problem is a two-pronged one. New data suggest the price surge is cooling down on both fronts.

The latest print from the Consumer Price Index capped a year of unrelenting price hikes. Inflation accelerated to a year-over-year pace of 7% in December, the fastest rate since 1982. Price hikes have been even larger for some popular goods like gas, beef, and furniture.

The elevated rate underscores the cavernous gap between shoppers' demand and strained supply. Vaccine rollouts in early 2021 paved the way for Americans to unleash pent-up demand and stimulus dollars at reopened businesses. Yet supply chains haven't fully healed, leaving firms struggling to keep their inventories intact. The Delta wave worsened the situation as key manufacturing hubs in the Asia Pacific region were forced to slow production.

But both of those problems could be coming to an end and ease the last months' sky-high price hikes on their own. The world's supply-chain mess is on the mend, and Americans' spending is shifting into a lower gear.

https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-starting-cooldown-supply-recovery-demand-fading-price-growth-2022-1?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Business_Insider_select&pt=385758&ct=Sailthru_BI_Newsletters&mt=8&utm_campaign=Insider%20Select%202022-01-20&utm_term=INSIDER%20SELECT%20-%20ENGAGED%2C%20ACTIVE%2C%20PASSIVE%2C%20DISENGAGED%2C%20NEW

If this is really the case there should be a deflating of prices, aka prices actually falling across the board. I'm not holding my breath. What probably will happen is that the year-to-year numbers will abate as we reach the point in time where they went up.

Lol prices aren't coming down. You new?

kingstonlake wrote:Lol prices aren't coming down. You new?

So, this analysis by top economists is a lie?

Tell me it isn't so.