Re: Stagflation - looks like we have it.

by **Motown Spartan** Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:53 pm

RQA wrote:
Motown Spartan wrote:I love when people parrot the Fox News talking points that turn out to be complete trash.

Inflation is a Fox News talking point?

They can't even keep track of what canned scare tactic they're using and it's right there in the thread title. STAGFLATION. And as Trapper Gus pointed out, the inflation part of stagflation isn't what we are seeing right now. This isn't that hard but since you watch Fox News, I'm sure it is.

by **Trapper Gus** Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:58 pm

New numbers for inflation coming out tomorrow and everyone is expecting them to be high.

The thing about stagflation though is it is inflation with low GDP growth, which doesn't seem to be happening.

Some complaints that GDP isn't growing above 6%, but 6% is a huge number by itself.

https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021, following an increase of 6.7 percent in the second quarter. The increase was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the “advance” estimate released in October.

by **Motown Spartan** Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:36 pm

The newer definitions of stagflation look more at unemployment rather than the inflation numbers. We're damn near pre-pandemic levels now and as close to a new normal for full employment.

by **Trapper Gus** Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:42 pm

Motown Spartan wrote:The newer definitions of stagflation look more at unemployment rather than the inflation numbers. We're damn near pre-pandemic levels now and as close to a new normal for full employment.

Seems like a goal post move to me.

When I lived through stagflation in the 1970's / 80's it was all about GDP growth and inflation.

People were complaining about growth below 3% ...

The theory is that there cannot be inflation and slow growth at the same time.

by RQA Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:19 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
We don't have general price inflation

Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 502811600

by RQA Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:22 am

Motown Spartan wrote: the inflation part of stagflation isn't what we are seeing right now.

Another inflation denier.

Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 502811600

by **Motown Spartan** Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:55 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
Motown Spartan wrote:The newer definitions of stagflation look more at unemployment rather than the inflation numbers. We're damn near pre-pandemic levels now and as close to a new normal for full employment.

Seems like a goal post move to me.

When I lived through stagflation in the 1970's / 80's it was all about GDP growth and inflation.

People were complaining about growth below 3% ...

The theory is that there cannot be inflation and slow growth at the same time.

They've used employment numbers for some time now because it's a more accurate and more timely indicator. It's less lagging than GDP growth.

by **Motown Spartan** Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:57 am

RQA wrote:
Motown Spartan wrote: the inflation part of stagflation isn't what we are seeing right now.

Another inflation denier.

What a well thought out, cogent argument. I suppose I should concede my position based solely on your superior debate skills.

by RQA Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:58 am

Motown Spartan wrote:I love when people parrot the Fox News talking points that turn out to be complete trash.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/consumer-price-index-november-2021.html

Fox News talking point. Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 1f602

by **Motown Spartan** Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:15 am

Okay, let's have a basic economics lesson here for both the Faux News crowd and the Communist NBC crowd.

CPI is not a measurement of inflation.

Inflation is defined as a process of continuously rising prices or equivalently, of a continuously falling value of money.

CPI doesn't even measure rising prices, it tracks consumer spending patterns that change as prices change.

And CPI has no way of measuring the falling value of money.

by **Trapper Gus** Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:24 am

Motown Spartan wrote:Okay, let's have a basic economics lesson here for both the Faux News crowd and the Communist NBC crowd.

CPI is not a measurement of inflation.

Inflation is defined as a process of continuously rising prices or equivalently, of a continuously falling value of money.

CPI doesn't even measure rising prices, it tracks consumer spending patterns that change as prices change.

And CPI has no way of measuring the falling value of money.

Technically that is mostly correct, though the basket of goods which the CPI-U, which I think is the one they use for the headline inflation numbers, is only adjusted about once every 10 years, so it can serve as a proxy for price inflation. It is a noisy number though, because it combines the general rise in prices due to inflation with the ups and downs of prices due to other factors. Right now it is mostly the other factors, the cartel's control of oil and the bank's control of financing for oil & gas drilling in the US which are having the largest effect.

by **Trapper Gus** Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:27 am

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – NOVEMBER 2021

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent
in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 6.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad
increases in most component indexes, similar to last month. The indexes for
gasoline, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the
larger contributors. The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November as the
gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major energy component
indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.7 percent as the index for food
at home rose 0.8 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November
following a 0.6-percent increase in October. Along with shelter, used cars and
trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for household furnishings and operations,
apparel, and airline fares were among those that increased. The indexes for
motor vehicle insurance, recreation, and communication all declined in November.

The all items index rose 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, the
largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The index for all
items less food and energy rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the
energy index rose 33.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased
6.1 percent. These changes are the largest 12-month increases in at least 13
years in the respective series.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

by **Trapper Gus** Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:27 am

FTIW these numbers are slightly lower than the expectation ... and fuel prices have been dropping since the numbers were captured.

by PennSpartan Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:27 pm

GRR Spartan wrote:The faux Christian schtick whose calls himself RQA here and Wells before it shut down loves the philandering thrice married real estate mogul who couldn’t make money owning casinos and whose 2017 Tax Act created huge deficits.

But Trump toadies want to put him back in The White House so he can get more Russian investment money

I want to know how the recount is going. Rudy seems to be MIA lately. And the My Pillow Guy has had several Trump inauguration dates come and go without Trump taking the oath. What does Q have to say about all this? I do miss some of those wackos in Wells. Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 502811600

by **Jake from State Farm** Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:10 pm

PennSpartan wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:The faux Christian schtick whose calls himself RQA here and Wells before it shut down loves the philandering thrice married real estate mogul who couldn’t make money owning casinos and whose 2017 Tax Act created huge deficits.

But Trump toadies want to put him back in The White House so he can get more Russian investment money
I want to know how the recount is going. Rudy seems to be MIA lately. And the My Pillow Guy has had several Trump inauguration dates come and go without Trump taking the oath. What does Q have to say about all this? I do miss some of those wackos in Wells.

Rudy is still out there peddling his bs
thousands of dead people voted in the election

by **Trapper Gus** Sat Dec 11, 2021 6:38 pm

Sometimes, as a math person, I am confounded why people don't understand simple math concepts...

Take the year-to-year inflation numbers.

If prices go up 5% in say April and remain at the same level for the next 13 months, every month after April will report the same price increase as a year-to-year increase until April rolls around again.

Which is what is happening.

When April rolls around again then the year-to-year inflation numbers will suddenly drop, as the price increased happened at that moment.

by **GRR Spartan** Sun Dec 12, 2021 8:09 am

But but but if everyone’s wages have grown according to Art Laffer why should rising prices be an issue?

After all we have had Bush2 tax cuts because the economy was doing so well and Trump’s 2017 tax cuts so why didn’t employers raise wages after all their tax savings?

by **Trapper Gus** Sun Dec 12, 2021 9:41 am

Dr. K had an intersting counterpoint to those who claim that inflation is harder on the lower income people.

His point is that inflation causes the value of ongoing contracts for borrowed money be drop.

Say someone bought a house with a 50k mortage (we are talking lower income here). As the dollar inflates 10%, for instance, the mortage which was worth 50k in real dollars is now only worth 45k, thus the lender is losing money and the borrower is gaining money. Since the lower incomes tend to borrow more, they are inflating their way out of past debt.

Also, FWIW, the wages for lower income earners have increased by over 12% in the past 12 months.

by RQA Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:55 am

Trapper Gus wrote:Sometimes, as a math person, I am confounded why people don't understand simple math concepts...

Take the year-to-year inflation numbers.

If prices go up 5% in say April and remain at the same level for the next 13 months, every month after April will report the same price increase as a year-to-year increase until April rolls around again.

Which is what is happening.

When April rolls around again then the year-to-year inflation numbers will suddenly drop, as the price increased happened at that moment.

Trapper trying to use "math" to claim that we don't really have inflation.
Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 502811600

by RQA Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:58 am

GRR Spartan wrote:But but but if everyone’s wages have grown according to Art Laffer why should rising prices be an issue?

Let's use a little math to explain. If prices go up 7% and your wages go up 5% is there an issue?

by RQA Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:59 am

Trapper Gus wrote:Dr. K had an intersting counterpoint to those who claim that inflation is harder on the lower income people.

His point is that inflation causes the value of ongoing contracts for borrowed money be drop.

Say someone bought a house with a 50k mortage (we are talking lower income here). As the dollar inflates 10%, for instance, the mortage which was worth 50k in real dollars is now only worth 45k, thus the lender is losing money and the borrower is gaining money. Since the lower incomes tend to borrow more, they are inflating their way out of past debt.

Also, FWIW, the wages for lower income earners have increased by over 12% in the past 12 months.

Now Trapper is using math to explain that inflation is actually a good thing!
Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 502811600

by PennSpartan Sun Dec 12, 2021 12:48 pm

RQA wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:But but but if everyone’s wages have grown according to Art Laffer why should rising prices be an issue?

Let's use a little math to explain. If prices go up 7% and your wages go up 5% is there an issue?

Only if you’re poor. The amount of stimulus money Biden has provided more than compensates for the inflation.

by **Trapper Gus** Sun Dec 12, 2021 9:05 pm

PennSpartan wrote:
RQA wrote:

Let's use a little math to explain. If prices go up 7% and your wages go up 5% is there an issue?
Only if you’re poor. The amount of stimulus money Biden has provided more than compensates for the inflation.

As noted before, the facts are the lower group of wage earners have had their incomes increase by over 12% while prices increased by 6.8%

by **Trapper Gus** Sun Dec 12, 2021 9:07 pm

RQA wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:Sometimes, as a math person, I am confounded why people don't understand simple math concepts...

Take the year-to-year inflation numbers.

If prices go up 5% in say April and remain at the same level for the next 13 months, every month after April will report the same price increase as a year-to-year increase until April rolls around again.

Which is what is happening.

When April rolls around again then the year-to-year inflation numbers will suddenly drop, as the price increased happened at that moment.

Trapper trying to use "math" to claim that we don't really have inflation.

Incorrect.

Technically the price increases are due to supply side issues, which are not the classical definition of inflation.

The CPI picks them up but as another poster noted, the CPI isn't really just a measure of inflation. There was a price bump back in April and prices have remained at the higher point, thus the CPI numbers reported each month for the year-to-year price increase. Once we come back to April 2022 some of that one-time price bump will be out of the year-to-year numbers.

BTW RQA, as I told you before, this is why the month-to-month inflation number is the one to watch if you want to really see what is happening, and btw October to November number was higher than anyone would like to see,

by **Trapper Gus** Sun Dec 12, 2021 9:08 pm

RQA wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:Dr. K had an intersting counterpoint to those who claim that inflation is harder on the lower income people.

His point is that inflation causes the value of ongoing contracts for borrowed money be drop.

Say someone bought a house with a 50k mortage (we are talking lower income here). As the dollar inflates 10%, for instance, the mortage which was worth 50k in real dollars is now only worth 45k, thus the lender is losing money and the borrower is gaining money. Since the lower incomes tend to borrow more, they are inflating their way out of past debt.

Also, FWIW, the wages for lower income earners have increased by over 12% in the past 12 months.

Now Trapper is using math to explain that inflation is actually a good thing!

Incorrect, just quoting an economist who is pointing out one reason that the idea that inflation hurts lower income people more has some flaws in its reasoning.

Right now, another flaw in that reasoning is that income for lower-level wage earns is up over 12% year-to-year, well ahead of price increases.

by AvgMSUJoe Mon Dec 13, 2021 9:57 am

RQA wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:But but but if everyone’s wages have grown according to Art Laffer why should rising prices be an issue?

Let's use a little math to explain. If prices go up 7% and your wages go up 5% is there an issue?

Wait... I thought the reason there is inflation (according to Rs) is because so many people got liberal giveaways (see)? How are you going to justify both things? Do the poors have too much money? or are prices up because of supply chain issues that have nothing to do with the gov? How little credit do the Rs give to their public when they blame "liberal spending", but don't tell them it was the stimulus checks, expanded unemployment, expanded food stamps they used to eat the last two years? If the everyday R is THAT upset about that spending, how many of them sent back their checks for the betterment of the good ole US of A?

Just a handful of questions I have for the Rs.

by RQA Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:50 am

PennSpartan wrote:
RQA wrote:

Let's use a little math to explain. If prices go up 7% and your wages go up 5% is there an issue?
Only if you’re poor.

Like most leftists, Penn doesn't really care about the poor. At least he admits it.

by **Rocinante** Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:09 pm

Inflation isn’t just an across the board cost increase. And if you don’t think that the pandemic and the resulting supply chain collapse explains most of it, you’re being deliberately ignorant.

As usual, the problem isn’t what the liberals are doing, it’s what capitalism is doing. Using the supply chain as a de facto warehouse because of fancy cost saving “just in time” manufacturing led to a vast under supply. So of course as they try to catch up to correct what was their mistake, they also raise prices. Because why not? Fuck people. Imma get mine. The rich get richer as usual.

by RQA Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:19 pm

AvgMSUJoe wrote:

Wait... I thought the reason there is inflation (according to Rs) is because so many people got liberal giveaways (see)? How are you going to justify both things?

Both things? You only mentioned one here that I saw. Yes, inflation is because the excess amount of money being printed and pumped into the economy. Too much money chasing too few goods is econ 101. 35% of all US dollars in circulation were printed in 2020.

Do the poors have too much money?

I have to assume this is a rhetorical question

or are prices up because of supply chain issues that have nothing to do with the gov?

Our supply chain issues have everything to do with the government. Government shuts down the economy and now we have supply chain problems. Imagine that!

How little credit do the Rs give to their public when they blame "liberal spending", but don't tell them it was the stimulus checks, expanded unemployment, expanded food stamps they used to eat the last two years? If the everyday R is THAT upset about that spending, how many of them sent back their checks for the betterment of the good ole US of A?

These checks were too much for too long. In an era where every business on every street corner is hiring, why do we even have unemployment checks going out?

by PennSpartan Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:32 pm

RQA wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
Only if you’re poor.

Like most leftists, Penn doesn't really care about the poor. At least he admits it.

You got that idea from those four words? Do you do palm readings, too?

by **Rocinante** Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:43 pm

This is funny and sick. So we shouldn’t have helped people who were out of work because of a global pandemic because now my French fries cost a quarter more. Not only is the premise wrong as fuck but fuck all the way off with that ghoulish bullshit.

by **Trapper Gus** Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:07 am

RQA wrote:
AvgMSUJoe wrote:

Wait... I thought the reason there is inflation (according to Rs) is because so many people got liberal giveaways (see)? How are you going to justify both things?

Both things? You only mentioned one here that I saw. Yes, inflation is because the excess amount of money being printed and pumped into the economy. Too much money chasing too few goods is econ 101. 35% of all US dollars in circulation were printed in 2020.

Do the poors have too much money?
I have to assume this is a rhetorical question

or are prices up because of supply chain issues that have nothing to do with the gov?
Our supply chain issues have everything to do with the government. Government shuts down the economy and now we have supply chain problems. Imagine that!

How little credit do the Rs give to their public when they blame "liberal spending", but don't tell them it was the stimulus checks, expanded unemployment, expanded food stamps they used to eat the last two years? If the everyday R is THAT upset about that spending, how many of them sent back their checks for the betterment of the good ole US of A?
These checks were too much for too long. In an era where every business on every street corner is hiring, why do we even have unemployment checks going out?

If we really had the economic definition of inflation everything would cost more, since that isn't the case, this is not inflation.

Prices increase for any number of reasons, it this case we have a combination of very poor decisions at the start of the pandemic by businesses, cutting way back on orders for items in "the supply chain", followed by a bounce in demand.

by Bredo Morstoel Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:24 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
RQA wrote:

Both things? You only mentioned one here that I saw. Yes, inflation is because the excess amount of money being printed and pumped into the economy. Too much money chasing too few goods is econ 101. 35% of all US dollars in circulation were printed in 2020.

I have to assume this is a rhetorical question

Our supply chain issues have everything to do with the government. Government shuts down the economy and now we have supply chain problems. Imagine that!

These checks were too much for too long. In an era where every business on every street corner is hiring, why do we even have unemployment checks going out?

If we really had the economic definition of inflation everything would cost more, since that isn't the case, this is not inflation.

Prices increase for any number of reasons, it this case we have a combination of very poor decisions at the start of the pandemic by businesses, cutting way back on orders for items in "the supply chain", followed by a bounce in demand.

The Democrats could come punch Trapper in the nuts, and he'd swear to anyone listening that it was just a hernia check.

by PennSpartan Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:30 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
RQA wrote:

Both things? You only mentioned one here that I saw. Yes, inflation is because the excess amount of money being printed and pumped into the economy. Too much money chasing too few goods is econ 101. 35% of all US dollars in circulation were printed in 2020.

I have to assume this is a rhetorical question

Our supply chain issues have everything to do with the government. Government shuts down the economy and now we have supply chain problems. Imagine that!

These checks were too much for too long. In an era where every business on every street corner is hiring, why do we even have unemployment checks going out?

If we really had the economic definition of inflation everything would cost more, since that isn't the case, this is not inflation.

Prices increase for any number of reasons, it this case we have a combination of very poor decisions at the start of the pandemic by businesses, cutting way back on orders for items in "the supply chain", followed by a bounce in demand.

RQA would prefer to go back to the days of the pandemic under Trump when inflation was lower and unemployment was doubled digits. Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 1966794946

Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 1966794946

by **Trapper Gus** Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:38 am

Bredo Morstoel wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

If we really had the economic definition of inflation everything would cost more, since that isn't the case, this is not inflation.

Prices increase for any number of reasons, it this case we have a combination of very poor decisions at the start of the pandemic by businesses, cutting way back on orders for items in "the supply chain", followed by a bounce in demand.

The Democrats could come punch Trapper in the nuts, and he'd swear to anyone listening that it was just a hernia check.

Incorrect.

by RQA Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:19 am

Trapper Gus wrote:

If we really had the economic definition of inflation everything would cost more, since that isn't the case, this is not inflation.

I have read some nut-job posts over the years from you Trapper, but this takes the cake!!

lol!

Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 877510730

Stagflation - looks like we have it. - Page 2 2803167989

by **Trapper Gus** Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:28 am

RQA wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

If we really had the economic definition of inflation everything would cost more, since that isn't the case, this is not inflation.

I have read some nut-job posts over the years from you Trapper, but this takes the cake!!

Dictionary - inflation - economics: a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent
in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 6.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad
increases in most component indexes, similar to last month. The indexes for
gasoline, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the
larger contributors. The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November as the
gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major energy component
indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.7 percent as the index for food
at home rose 0.8 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November
following a 0.6-percent increase in October. Along with shelter, used cars and
trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for household furnishings and operations,
apparel, and airline fares were among those that increased. The indexes for
motor vehicle insurance, recreation, and communication all declined in November.

by **Trapper Gus** Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:11 am

Here are some numbers about wages --- If you look at the graph in the link wages have been up by over 10% since April year-or-year until October.

Wages in the United States increased 9.77 percent in October of 2021 over the same month in the previous year. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

by AvgMSUJoe Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:22 pm

Huh... those "in the know" seem to be over it all....

[tw]1471168696336982022[/tw]

by **Trapper Gus** Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:45 am

GDP for the 3rd quarter was revised upward this week.

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