Re: Why isn’t the administration more hostile towards big oil and Saudi Arabia?

by **kingstonlake** 6/13/2022, 6:22 pm

Trapper Gus wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
Thanks. It backed up exactly what I said. Supply and demand.

That it did in words, but it had no data in its references to prove that was correct.

The article read like a middle school lesson on supply and demand. Nowhere did it address how the supplier has manipulated the supply. Then at the end it told everyone the price of gas would drop in 2022 lol!

by PennSpartan 6/13/2022, 6:45 pm

kingstonlake wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

That it did in words, but it had no data in its references to prove that was correct.

The article read like a middle school lesson on supply and demand. Nowhere did it address how the supplier has manipulated the supply. Then at the end it told everyone the price of gas would drop in 2022

Read the title of this thread if you want a good laugh.

by **kingstonlake** 6/13/2022, 7:12 pm

PennSpartan wrote:
kingstonlake wrote:

The article read like a middle school lesson on supply and demand. Nowhere did it address how the supplier has manipulated the supply. Then at the end it told everyone the price of gas would drop in 2022
Read the title of this thread if you want a good laugh.

At least you’re not denying your link was a colossal failure in supply and demand education.

by PennSpartan 6/13/2022, 7:57 pm

kingstonlake wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
Read the title of this thread if you want a good laugh.

At least you’re not denying your link was a colossal failure in supply and demand education.

Supply and demand makes a lot more sense than attacking Saudi Arabia. LOL

by **Nordic** 6/13/2022, 11:23 pm

PennSpartan wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

The Ford truck I just purchased is averaging about 31 mpg
But small cars would do better.

Nobody buys small cars and they are not profitable. It is actually a brilliant move, to avoid bankruptcy. The future of the auto industry is not small cars. It is EV and autonomy.

by **Nordic** 6/14/2022, 12:42 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/06/10/fact-check-higher-gas-prices-due-national-and-seasonal-demand/5253346001/

Oil producers closed valves on wells, keeping oil in the ground in 2020, due to a demand shock. All they had to do was open them again, which they did.

All they had to do was 'open them up again'? It isn't that easy. There has been major labor shortages since the pandemic that has effected every aspect of the global supply chain. Including oil production and refining. You don't just turn it back on again.

I live this everyday. Whether it is containers stuck at ports because there is no one to unload them, or truck drivers to drive them. Or trying to find raw aluminun, TPE, service parts for machinery... hell corrugated boxes... demand is out pacing the rate of supply in all facets. Mainly do to labor. If are invilved in any kind of manufacturering bisiness, you are acutely aware of the labor issue.

Trapper Gus wrote:
Looking through that article there is nothing in it, or in its references, to support the "supply & demand" theory

Yes it does. You can choose not to believe it, but it does.

"In response to the low demand due to reduced travel and lockdown restrictions, Finley said major oil-producing countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia and member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, decided to cut down on their own oil production.

But the cut meant oil producers weren't ready to meet the demand for crude oil once it renewed this year thanks to easing of COVID-19-related restrictions."

Are they taking advantage of the situation and setting prices to make more money? Of course they are. They got their asses handed to them in 2020 and their longterm ability to turn a profit is wanning. Of course they are going recoup the loses. There is little incentive to throw cash at the problem to reduce profit margin. Even less incenhive to invest longterm (refineries, etc.) when that is not the direction we are going as a country.

But to say this is the sole reason why prices are high and "they should just pump more" is ignoring the glarring global supply/demand issues we've had since 2020. If you are not in manufacturering, you might not be exposed to it. Hell, I deal with buyers that are clueless to why we can't just "make more", which is quite amazing.

by **Nordic** 6/14/2022, 1:10 am

kingstonlake wrote:You’re wrong Penn. Demand is the same as it was in 2019.

Phillips 66 never re opened its Louisiana refinery after hurricane Ida

LyondellBasell closed its Houston refinery

We have a refinery problem. One oil companies are refusing to address. All while taking government subsidies.

Yes.Closing of refineries is a contributor to the supply issue

by **Nordic** 6/14/2022, 1:17 am

kingstonlake wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/06/10/fact-check-higher-gas-prices-due-national-and-seasonal-demand/5253346001/
From your 2021 article…...:lol: Tou just made me and trappers point for us.

We expect oil producers in the United States and globally to increase their production levels through 2022, which we expect to contribute to lower crude oil prices, and lower gasoline prices."

by PennSpartan 6/14/2022, 6:06 am

Nordic wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
But small cars would do better.

Nobody buys small cars and they are not profitable. It is actually a brilliant move, to avoid bankruptcy. The future of the auto industry is not small cars. It is EV and autonomy.

Nobody bought small cars because gas was cheap. They aren’t profitable for American car companies. Honda, Toyota, and a bunch of others are still making them. The idiots in Detroit who thought gas was going to stay cheap forever will be sorry. Gas isn’t going to be cheap for a long time.

by **kingstonlake** 6/14/2022, 7:02 am

Yeah that’s it. The idiots at GM who announced in 2019 that they want to be fully EV by 2035 think gas is gonna stay cheap.

by PennSpartan 6/14/2022, 7:08 am

kingstonlake wrote:Yeah that’s it. The idiots at GM who announced in 2019 that they want to be fully EV by 2035 think gas is gonna stay cheap.

How’s the price on those EV’s? Any inventory? Now would be a good time to be able to get one.

by **kingstonlake** 6/14/2022, 7:21 am

by PennSpartan 6/14/2022, 8:51 am

Gosh, the words supply and demand make an appearance in this column. Shocking!

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-theres-no-relief-in-sight-for-soaring-oil-and-gas-prices-195813517.html

by **Nordic** 6/14/2022, 10:49 am

PennSpartan wrote:
Nordic wrote:

Nobody buys small cars and they are not profitable. It is actually a brilliant move, to avoid bankruptcy. The future of the auto industry is not small cars. It is EV and autonomy.
Nobody bought small cars because gas was cheap. They aren’t profitable for American car companies. Honda, Toyota, and a bunch of others are still making them. The idiots in Detroit who thought gas was going to stay cheap forever will be sorry. Gas isn’t going to be cheap for a long time.

No one in Detroit thought this. In fact quite the opposite. Hence the shift major shift to EV. Your analysis of this could not be more off.

by **Trapper Gus** 6/14/2022, 1:40 pm

Nordic wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

Oil producers closed valves on wells, keeping oil in the ground in 2020, due to a demand shock. All they had to do was open them again, which they did.

All they had to do was 'open them up again'? It isn't that easy. There has been major labor shortages since the pandemic that has effected every aspect of the global supply chain. Including oil production and refining. You don't just turn it back on again.

I live this everyday. Whether it is containers stuck at ports because there is no one to unload them, or truck drivers to drive them. Or trying to find raw aluminun, TPE, service parts for machinery... hell corrugated boxes... demand is out pacing the rate of supply in all facets. Mainly do to labor. If are invilved in any kind of manufacturering bisiness, you are acutely aware of the labor issue.

Trapper Gus wrote:
Looking through that article there is nothing in it, or in its references, to support the "supply & demand" theory

Yes it does. You can choose not to believe it, but it does.

"In response to the low demand due to reduced travel and lockdown restrictions, Finley said major oil-producing countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia and member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, decided to cut down on their own oil production.

But the cut meant oil producers weren't ready to meet the demand for crude oil once it renewed this year thanks to easing of COVID-19-related restrictions."

Are they taking advantage of the situation and setting prices to make more money? Of course they are. They got their asses handed to them in 2020 and their longterm ability to turn a profit is wanning. Of course they are going recoup the loses. There is little incentive to throw cash at the problem to reduce profit margin. Even less incenhive to invest longterm (refineries, etc.) when that is not the direction we are going as a country.

But to say this is the sole reason why prices are high and "they should just pump more" is ignoring the glarring global supply/demand issues we've had since 2020. If you are not in manufacturering, you might not be exposed to it. Hell, I deal with buyers that are clueless to why we can't just "make more", which is quite amazing.

First, and really the reason I am posting, I mistyped in the post you are quoting - the oil producers did not open the valves to pre-pandemic levels.

Second, you are correct about fewer refineries in the US, however the planning for that started well before the pandemic and is basically a "corner" on the refining market by the existing refiners and the financers who provide the money. The oligarchy who were unhappy with the ROI they had up to that point. Labor typically means "we don't want to pay enough to attract it" and the "we don't want to pay enough" can be for a number of reasons. The labor pool is there if the wages are high enough.

by PennSpartan 6/14/2022, 5:08 pm

Nordic wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
Nobody bought small cars because gas was cheap. They aren’t profitable for American car companies. Honda, Toyota, and a bunch of others are still making them. The idiots in Detroit who thought gas was going to stay cheap forever will be sorry. Gas isn’t going to be cheap for a long time.

No one in Detroit thought this. In fact quite the opposite. Hence the shift major shift to EV. Your analysis of this could not be more off.

Great idea. But I can’t find anything but F150’s on the lot at the Ford dealership. Is that part of the plan, too?

by **kingstonlake** 6/14/2022, 6:36 pm

“The” Ford dealership? Lol.

I guess there’s only one.

by PennSpartan 6/14/2022, 7:11 pm

kingstonlake wrote:“The” Ford dealership? Lol.

I guess there’s only one.

Aren’t they all the same? I’m at the Phillies game, inflation and gas prices not bothering me. Life is good. Thanks, Joe!

by **Nordic** 6/15/2022, 12:03 am

PennSpartan wrote:
Nordic wrote:

No one in Detroit thought this. In fact quite the opposite. Hence the shift major shift to EV. Your analysis of this could not be more off.
Great idea. But I can’t find anything but F150’s on the lot at the Ford dealership. Is that part of the plan, too?

Yes, because they are profitable and that is what consumer's want. The Fiesta is neither of those things. And this has everything to do with current supply chain issues. Saying Ford, GM, etc. should have invested in small fuel effeicent ICEs is about as economically and environmentally sound as saying oil/gas companies should invest in new refineries. First it would be coporate suicide. There is no ROI in investing in antiquated ICE technology on 1970s platforms. Secind it is completely counter to solving the climate change issue.

Automakers have not spent the last decade+ of R&D on making shitty fuel efficient small ICE vehicles less shitty. But making vehicles people actually want more fuel efficient and eventually carbon nuetral.

The auto industry is heavily invested in EV development. In fact, they are pretty much all-in. Despite the public largely spurning them (Bolt, Volt...small shitty cars BTW), till Tesla made a EVs sexy.

We are at the tip of the iceberg on the transition to EV. In next the 12+ months there are major EV product launches from all the OEMs. F150 Lightning, R1T (already on the road), R1S, Hummer, Lyriq, Silverado EV, Equinox EV, Cybertruck, etc. And a bunch of commercial delivery vans like the RPV, Brightdrop, E-Transit, etc. The first RPV vans are already being delivered to Amazon out in Cali. At some point they will be pulling up in your driveway.

Heavy competition is driving both the retail and commercial EV spaces. There are a number of start-ups (Rivian, ELMs, etc.) that are pushing the old guard. Which is good. Most won't make it. But everyone is racing to launch. EV technology has taken a long time to develop, but it will now be coming faster than I believe our infrastructure can accomidate. That said, the transition is still going to take 20+ years. But no one is investing in ICE futures.

by PennSpartan 6/15/2022, 7:54 am

Nordic wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
Great idea. But I can’t find anything but F150’s on the lot at the Ford dealership. Is that part of the plan, too?

Yes, because they are profitable and that is what consumer's want. The Fiesta is neither of those things. And this has everything to do with current supply chain issues. Saying Ford, GM, etc. should have invested in small fuel effeicent ICEs is about as economically and environmentally sound as saying oil/gas companies should invest in new refineries. First it would be coporate suicide. There is no ROI in investing in antiquated ICE technology on 1970s platforms. Secind it is completely counter to solving the climate change issue.

Automakers have not spent the last decade+ of R&D on making shitty fuel efficient small ICE vehicles less shitty. But making vehicles people actually want more fuel efficient and eventually carbon nuetral.

The auto industry is heavily invested in EV development. In fact, they are pretty much all-in. Despite the public largely spurning them (Bolt, Volt...small shitty cars BTW), till Tesla made a EVs sexy.

We are at the tip of the iceberg on the transition to EV. In next the 12+ months there are major EV product launches from all the OEMs. F150 Lightning, R1T (already on the road), R1S, Hummer, Lyriq, Silverado EV, Equinox EV, Cybertruck, etc. And a bunch of commercial delivery vans like the RPV, Brightdrop, E-Transit, etc. The first RPV vans are already being delivered to Amazon out in Cali. At some point they will be pulling up in your driveway.

Heavy competition is driving both the retail and commercial EV spaces. There are a number of start-ups (Rivian, ELMs, etc.) that are pushing the old guard. Which is good. Most won't make it. But everyone is racing to launch. EV technology has taken a long time to develop, but it will now be coming faster than I believe our infrastructure can accomidate. That said, the transition is still going to take 20+ years. But no one is investing in ICE futures.

Good points. But I’m not saying they should be investing in new ICE vehicles. Just keep one or two around until they have a lineup of EV’s. The Ford Focus for example. All the R & D was done. Just keep making them until there are EV replacements on the lot. I guess people will just buy foreign instead.

by **Trapper Gus** 6/15/2022, 7:57 am

Axios wrote:President Biden will warn CEOs of the nation's largest oil companies on Wednesday that he's considering invoking emergency powers to boost U.S. refinery output, according to a letter obtained by Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/biden-emergency-powers-oil-gas-prices

by **Trapper Gus** 6/15/2022, 8:06 am

PennSpartan wrote:
Nordic wrote:

Yes, because they are profitable and that is what consumer's want. The Fiesta is neither of those things. And this has everything to do with current supply chain issues. Saying Ford, GM, etc. should have invested in small fuel effeicent ICEs is about as economically and environmentally sound as saying oil/gas companies should invest in new refineries. First it would be coporate suicide. There is no ROI in investing in antiquated ICE technology on 1970s platforms. Secind it is completely counter to solving the climate change issue.

Automakers have not spent the last decade+ of R&D on making shitty fuel efficient small ICE vehicles less shitty. But making vehicles people actually want more fuel efficient and eventually carbon nuetral.

The auto industry is heavily invested in EV development. In fact, they are pretty much all-in. Despite the public largely spurning them (Bolt, Volt...small shitty cars BTW), till Tesla made a EVs sexy.

We are at the tip of the iceberg on the transition to EV. In next the 12+ months there are major EV product launches from all the OEMs. F150 Lightning, R1T (already on the road), R1S, Hummer, Lyriq, Silverado EV, Equinox EV, Cybertruck, etc. And a bunch of commercial delivery vans like the RPV, Brightdrop, E-Transit, etc. The first RPV vans are already being delivered to Amazon out in Cali. At some point they will be pulling up in your driveway.

Heavy competition is driving both the retail and commercial EV spaces. There are a number of start-ups (Rivian, ELMs, etc.) that are pushing the old guard. Which is good. Most won't make it. But everyone is racing to launch. EV technology has taken a long time to develop, but it will now be coming faster than I believe our infrastructure can accomidate. That said, the transition is still going to take 20+ years. But no one is investing in ICE futures.
Good points. But I’m not saying they should be investing in new ICE vehicles. Just keep one or two around until they have a lineup of EV’s. The Ford Focus for example. All the R & D was done. Just keep making them until there are EV replacements on the lot. I guess people will just buy foreign instead.

The NA Focus assembly plant was Wayne Assembly in Wayne Michigan.

It was retooled to assemble the Ranger in 2019 & the Bronco was added in 2021.

The Bronco Sport (My 31 mpg drive) and Maverik are assembled in Mexico, in the same plant which produced the Ford Escape.

edit - fwiw parts content in all vehicles is global. There was a point when "foreign" vehicle assembles had higher US assembled part content than US vehicle assemblies.

by **kingstonlake** 6/15/2022, 8:09 am

Ford Focus: up to 30 mpg city 40mpg hwy
Ford Escape: up to 44mpg city 37mpg hwy

by PennSpartan 6/15/2022, 8:48 am

kingstonlake wrote:Ford Focus: up to 30 mpg city 40mpg hwy
Ford Escape: up to 44mpg city 37mpg hwy

I doubt that. Maybe an Escape hybrid.

by PennSpartan 6/15/2022, 8:51 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
Good points. But I’m not saying they should be investing in new ICE vehicles. Just keep one or two around until they have a lineup of EV’s. The Ford Focus for example. All the R & D was done. Just keep making them until there are EV replacements on the lot. I guess people will just buy foreign instead.

The NA Focus assembly plant was Wayne Assembly in Wayne Michigan.

It was retooled to assemble the Ranger in 2019 & the Bronco was added in 2021.

The Bronco Sport (My 31 mpg drive) and Maverik are assembled in Mexico, in the same plant which produced the Ford Escape.

edit - fwiw parts content in all vehicles is global. There was a point when "foreign" vehicle assembles had higher US assembled part content than US vehicle assemblies.

Foreign manufacturers. Like I said, you like to argue just for the sake of argument. Detroit will have to live with their decisions. We’ll see how it goes over the next few years.

by **Trapper Gus** 6/15/2022, 9:05 am

PennSpartan wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

The NA Focus assembly plant was Wayne Assembly in Wayne Michigan.

It was retooled to assemble the Ranger in 2019 & the Bronco was added in 2021.

The Bronco Sport (My 31 mpg drive) and Maverik are assembled in Mexico, in the same plant which produced the Ford Escape.

edit - fwiw parts content in all vehicles is global. There was a point when "foreign" vehicle assembles had higher US assembled part content than US vehicle assemblies.
Foreign manufacturers. Like I said, you like to argue just for the sake of argument. Detroit will have to live with their decisions. We’ll see how it goes over the next few years.

Vehicle manufacturers are investing in new plants for EV's and retooling existing plants while using existing plants as economically as possible for a product line to produce sales are revenue. US vehicle companies build vehicles all over the globe, as do all other major manufacturers, the idea that there are "US" & "foreign" companies is so 1980's.

Have no idea why Ford decided to stop producing most cars, and there are rumors they will stop producing the Escape around 2025, however that is their choice. The F150 is still the highest volume vehicle in sales in the US.

by **kingstonlake** 6/15/2022, 9:06 am

PennSpartan wrote:
kingstonlake wrote:Ford Focus: up to 30 mpg city 40mpg hwy
Ford Escape: up to 44mpg city 37mpg hwy
I doubt that. Maybe an Escape hybrid.

And?

by PennSpartan 6/15/2022, 10:22 am

kingstonlake wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
I doubt that. Maybe an Escape hybrid.

And?

Apples to apples.

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