If Trump succeeds in creating chaos and literally steals the election...

Both parties prepare for legal battles over 2024 results

Most of the pending lawsuits have been filed by Republicans and their allies. Many involve challenges to mail-in balloting, ballots from overseas voters and claims of voting by people who are not U.S citizens.

https://apnews.com/newsletter/ground-game/october-21-2024

Didn't realize you have to register to vote to enter Musk's million dollar giveaway...

Of note: The giveaway is raising questions and alarms among some election experts who say it is a violation of the law to link a cash handout to signing a petition that also requires a person to be registered to vote. Typically, coordination between campaigns and so-called super PACs had been forbidden, but a recent opinion by the Federal Election Commission permitted candidates and these groups to work together in certain cases, including getting out the vote efforts. P wrote:Of note:

The giveaway is raising questions and alarms among some election experts who say it is a violation of the law to link a cash handout to signing a petition that also requires a person to be registered to vote. Typically, coordination between campaigns and so-called super PACs had been forbidden, but a recent opinion by the Federal Election Commission permitted candidates and these groups to work together in certain cases, including getting out the vote efforts.

Having read Walter’s work (and others) and worked in the middle of three civil wars myself, I believe if Trump can manage to seize power this fall and again become president, he will try to start a civil war.

His language is a near mirror image of that coming out of the old South in the 1850s; he’s already threatening to unleash the military on America’s people (the definition of a civil war); and he’s supported by several billionaires whose formative years were spent in apartheid South Africa.

Those same billionaires, in fact, funded the rise of JD Vance to the Senate.

On the other hand, if Trump decisively loses this fall and is unable to seize power via the Supreme Court or other means, I believe he’ll still try to start a second American civil war. The odds of his success are much lower without full access to the levers of power, but that hasn’t stopped many others in his same position throughout history.

https://hartmannreport.com/p/can-america-avoid-another-civil-war-ee8

Cameron wrote:

When Trump tells you what he is going to do, believe him Cam...

Trapper Gus wrote:

Cameron wrote:

When Trump tells you what he is going to do, believe him Cam...

He told us he was going to build a wall...

NigelUno wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

When Trump tells you what he is going to do, believe him Cam...

He told us he was going to build a wall...

Good point, however, he did tell us Mexico would pay for it, they didn't, he did try to build the wall, and he used the power of Federal Law Enforcement (google Portland, OR) against the American people, suggesting he doesn't give a shit about undocumented immigration or hate undocumented immigrants but does hate the American people.

Maybe we should set up some sort of head law enforcement type position. Like an attorney general or something.

He could file charges against Elon Musk for paying voters in Pennsylvania. Or charge Musk for disinformation regarding Michigan voter rolls.

Wouldn’t that be a good idea? Also make sure if you do he’s not some pussy sucking his thumb on the sidelines.

Trapper Gus wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

He told us he was going to build a wall...

Good point, however, he did tell us Mexico would pay for it, they didn't, he did try to build the wall, and he used the power of Federal Law Enforcement (google Portland, OR) against the American people, suggesting he doesn't give a shit about undocumented immigration or hate undocumented immigrants but does hate the American people.

People over estimate what a President can do.

And people throw around the words "Civil War" way too much.

DWags wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

People over estimate what a President can do.

And people throw around the words "Civil War" way too much.  

I’ve personally never been worried about any type of Civil War.   How the hell would that even work?  

But again, if he does lose, I have no doubt there will be some absolute  ginned up nuts that will take shots at Harris supporters, or rush state capitals.   These fat out of shape wanna be military nuts have AR 15s  

I’m not saying there will be widespread chaos because I don’t think there will be, but I would strongly recommend to just be cautious

Excuse me now I’m going to drive to Kroger and get two more cases of soup and a couple hundred gallons of water

Don't forget toilet paper.

I'm much more concerned about what happens if Trump wins and gets his hands on the Federal Government's levers of power again than if he loses.

Don't really see any Governor who would try to take their state out of the union.

NigelUno wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Good point, however, he did tell us Mexico would pay for it, they didn't, he did try to build the wall, and he used the power of Federal Law Enforcement (google Portland, OR) against the American people, suggesting he doesn't give a shit about undocumented immigration or hate undocumented immigrants but does hate the American people.

People over estimate what a President can do.

And people throw around the words "Civil War" way too much.

This is true, but indeed we are currently in a civil information war

Trapper Gus wrote:I'm much more concerned about what happens if Trump wins and gets his hands on the Federal Government's levers of power again than if he loses.

Don't really see any Governor who would try to take their state out of the union.

You don't need states attempting to exit the union for civil war to exist.  We are in a civil information war right now.  All you need is groups violently vying for control of the government or trying to gain independence or change government policy.  I would go as far as to say the information war is pretty darn violent as far as information can be violent.  if you consider what is actually happening and what they are doing, the lengths they are going are pure insanity.  Obviously some steps below actual violent civil war but these people are using information by any means necessary to gain control. Musk is allegedly running billboards in Arab areas saying Kamala is completely pro Israel and Bill boards in Jewish areas saying she's pro Palestine/terrorism. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Musk is Trump's information warfare czar without a doubt.

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:I'm much more concerned about what happens if Trump wins and gets his hands on the Federal Government's levers of power again than if he loses.

Don't really see any Governor who would try to take their state out of the union.

You don't need states attempting to exit the union for civil war to exist.  We are in a civil information war right now.  All you need is groups violently vying for control of the government or trying to gain independence or change government policy.  I would go as far as to say the information war is pretty darn violent as far as information can be violent.  if you consider what is actually happening and what they are doing, the lengths they are going are pure insanity.  Obviously some steps below actual violent civil war but these people are using information by any means necessary to gain control.  Musk is allegedly running billboards in Arab areas saying Kamala is completely pro Israel and Bill boards in Jewish areas saying she's pro Palestine/terrorism.  That's just the tip of the iceberg.  Musk is Trump's information warfare czar without a doubt.  

If you are thinking that way it's time for to tell you that with Republicans in charge of the third branch we have already lost the war.  If they regain the Presidency we just lose faster.

Trapper Gus wrote:

sεяεηιτλ wrote:
You don't need states attempting to exit the union for civil war to exist.  We are in a civil information war right now.  All you need is groups violently vying for control of the government or trying to gain independence or change government policy.  I would go as far as to say the information war is pretty darn violent as far as information can be violent.  if you consider what is actually happening and what they are doing, the lengths they are going are pure insanity.  Obviously some steps below actual violent civil war but these people are using information by any means necessary to gain control.  Musk is allegedly running billboards in Arab areas saying Kamala is completely pro Israel and Bill boards in Jewish areas saying she's pro Palestine/terrorism.  That's just the tip of the iceberg.  Musk is Trump's information warfare czar without a doubt.  

If you are thinking that way it's time for to tell you that with Republicans in charge of the third branch we have already lost the war.  If they regain the Presidency we just lose faster.

Not lost yet but certainly we are reeling from the onslaught of misinformation they are using as weapons. If you aren't fighting fire with fire, it is difficult to overcome because we live in a very stupid country. If Democrats lose this, they will need to dramatically restructure their overall strategy but it possibly would be too late.

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

If you are thinking that way it's time for to tell you that with Republicans in charge of the third branch we have already lost the war.  If they regain the Presidency we just lose faster.

Not lost yet but certainly we are reeling from the onslaught of misinformation they are using as weapons. If you aren't fighting fire with fire, it is difficult to overcome because we live in a very stupid country. If Democrats lose this, they will need to dramatically restructure their overall strategy but it possibly would be too late.

Without a total overhaul of the Federal Courts, very unlikely unless we get a blue wave, the courts will continue to block anything the Democratics do.

We have lost.

Trapper Gus wrote:

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Not lost yet but certainly we are reeling from the onslaught of misinformation they are using as weapons.  If you aren't fighting fire with fire, it is difficult to overcome because we live in a very stupid country.  If Democrats lose this, they will need to dramatically restructure their overall strategy but it possibly would be too late.

Without a total overhaul of the Federal Courts, very unlikely unless we get a blue wave, the courts will continue to block anything the Democratics do.

We have lost.

One good election with 2 years of Dem house, senate, and executive could turn it all around but they have to have the stones to do it.  You would need to get rid of filiabuster, pack the supreme court, implement voting rights legislation that ends gerrymandering and other unAmerican practices, implement some kind of judiciary overhaul.  You can do that in 2 years with motivation.  Trump is giving all that motivation right now.

I'll grant you if trump wins, this all is in major jeopardy. But if he loses and we don't win both chambers, we live to fight again in the future

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Without a total overhaul of the Federal Courts, very unlikely unless we get a blue wave, the courts will continue to block anything the Democratics do.

We have lost.

One good election with 2 years of Dem house, senate, and executive could turn it all around but they have to have the stones to do it.  You would need to get rid of filiabuster, pack the supreme court, implement voting rights legislation that ends gerrymandering and other unAmerican practices, implement some kind of judiciary overhaul.  You can do that in 2 years with motivation.  Trump is giving all that motivation right now.

I'll grant you if trump wins, this all is in major jeopardy. But if he loses and we don't win both chambers, we live to fight again in the future

Everywhere they can the Republicians will be taking everything to conservative federal courts in Texas & elsewhere in the 5th district, to fast track new laws from the Supreme Court back down.

The Supreme Court has shown it has no guardrails so I expect it will nullify laws passed Congress.

It shouldn't be able to overrule a Court reorganization but I would not be suprised if it does.

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:I'm much more concerned about what happens if Trump wins and gets his hands on the Federal Government's levers of power again than if he loses.

Don't really see any Governor who would try to take their state out of the union.

You don't need states attempting to exit the union for civil war to exist.  We are in a civil information war right now.  All you need is groups violently vying for control of the government or trying to gain independence or change government policy.  I would go as far as to say the information war is pretty darn violent as far as information can be violent.  if you consider what is actually happening and what they are doing, the lengths they are going are pure insanity.  Obviously some steps below actual violent civil war but these people are using information by any means necessary to gain control. Musk is allegedly running billboards in Arab areas saying Kamala is completely pro Israel and Bill boards in Jewish areas saying she's pro Palestine/terrorism. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Musk is Trump's information warfare czar without a doubt.

Allegedly?

While there are tons of disinformation (lies) ongoing this is sort of normal for US elections, with the big difference now being that it is getting internet attention. At one time this was called dirty politicking and way back in the 19th century there are a Presidential candidate who was accused of having a child out of wedlock, so this stuff is not new.

Politics is supposed to be a war of ideas, really not seeing your beef, here.

On the other hand, Trump may have help in this...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia and Iran may try to encourage violent protests in the U.S. after next month’s election, senior intelligence officials warned Tuesday in a declassified memo, citing two recent examples of foreign intelligence agencies seeking to sow discord ahead of the vote.

The memo, released Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said both countries could support violent protests either by covertly organizing events themselves or by encouraging participation in those planned by domestic groups. The aim, the officials wrote, would be to increase division, cast doubt on election results and complicate the transfer of presidential power.

In January, Russian military intelligence tried to recruit an American to organize protests in the U.S., according to a declassified national intelligence memo released publicly Tuesday. The American was “probably unwitting” and did not know he was in contact with Russian agents, the memo said.

https://apnews.com/article/election-trump-harris-violent-protests-jan-6-025832e5e391539d87d49ba76a7cddea

Trapper Gus wrote:On the other hand, Trump may have help in this...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia and Iran may try to encourage violent protests in the U.S. after next month’s election, senior intelligence officials warned Tuesday in a declassified memo, citing two recent examples of foreign intelligence agencies seeking to sow discord ahead of the vote.

The memo, released Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said both countries could support violent protests either by covertly organizing events themselves or by encouraging participation in those planned by domestic groups. The aim, the officials wrote, would be to increase division, cast doubt on election results and complicate the transfer of presidential power.

In January, Russian military intelligence tried to recruit an American to organize protests in the U.S., according to a declassified national intelligence memo released publicly Tuesday. The American was “probably unwitting” and did not know he was in contact with Russian agents, the memo said.

https://apnews.com/article/election-trump-harris-violent-protests-jan-6-025832e5e391539d87d49ba76a7cddea

How dare they! We would never try to do that to them!

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:I'm much more concerned about what happens if Trump wins and gets his hands on the Federal Government's levers of power again than if he loses.

Don't really see any Governor who would try to take their state out of the union.

You don't need states attempting to exit the union for civil war to exist.  We are in a civil information war right now.  All you need is groups violently vying for control of the government or trying to gain independence or change government policy.  I would go as far as to say the information war is pretty darn violent as far as information can be violent.  if you consider what is actually happening and what they are doing, the lengths they are going are pure insanity.  Obviously some steps below actual violent civil war but these people are using information by any means necessary to gain control.  Musk is allegedly running billboards in Arab areas saying Kamala is completely pro Israel and Bill boards in Jewish areas saying she's pro Palestine/terrorism.  That's just the tip of the iceberg.  Musk is Trump's information warfare czar without a doubt.  

Yeah, people talk about a modern Civil War in the context of the 1860s. Even that recent movie.  But how many civil wars in history were divided along pre-existing geographic lines of states/provinces?  The English Civil War, Russian Civil War, Spanish Civil War, French Revolution, etc., were all on more political/ideological grounds.  More recent ones have often been ethnic or religious based.

So, for example, when people mention violence against supporters or the government of one side or the other, that's exactly what a 2024 civil war in the US would look like.

Trump's little secret is to try to throw the election into the US House. In order to do that both the Senate and the House will have to vote not to accept certain States certified EC votes. In order for that to happen the Republicans will need to have the majority in both chambers and even then I question if all Republican members will go along.

https://www.alternet.org/news-politics/mike-trump-maga/

Trapper Gus wrote:Trump's little secret is to try to throw the election into the US House. In order to do that both the Senate and the House will have to vote not to accept certain States certified EC votes. In order for that to happen the Republicans will need to have the majority in both chambers and even then I question if all Republican members will go along.

https://www.alternet.org/news-politics/mike-trump-maga/

Tell me what happens if a state just fails to certify?

If a state fails to certify then that state's EC votes are not counted.

Some experts say that event also lowers the total EC votes needed to elect the President and Veep.

Trapper Gus wrote:If a state fails to certify then that state's EC votes are not counted.

Some experts say that event also lowers the total EC votes needed to elect the President and Veep.

However, other experts say that you still need 270 electoral votes, and if not then it kicks to Congress. So if one state doesn't certify and the remaining electoral votes is 265 to 262, It goes to Congress.

(*Those numbers are just hypotheticals.  I dont give a fuck if that exact breakout is realistic or not, the point remains).

Man sure wish the democrats tried to change it from needing 270 to needing half of the certified votes when they had the power to do so. Ah well. Most important election of your life forever instead.

Trapper Gus wrote:If a state fails to certify then that state's EC votes are not counted.

Some experts say that event also lowers the total EC votes needed to elect the President and Veep.

This is the scenario that scares me the most as it would probably kick it to congress.  However it probably takes top to bottom Republican corruption because a single person deciding not to certify, I surmise, probably goes to courts and certification is made to happen.  But if a long chain of people support not certifying then that could be a little different.  However it seems unlikely to happen and if it does it may be only 1 or 2 states.  Basically we just need to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania because these other scenarios that include Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona are scary.

MiamiSpartan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:If a state fails to certify then that state's EC votes are not counted.

Some experts say that event also lowers the total EC votes needed to elect the President and Veep.

However, other experts say that you still need 270 electoral votes, and if not then it kicks to Congress. So if one state doesn't certify and the remaining electoral votes is 265 to 262, It goes to Congress.

(*Those numbers are just hypotheticals.  I dont give a fuck if that exact breakout is realistic or not, the point remains).

The 2022 reform of the 1887 Electoral Counting Act says otherwise according to the VOX article...

Third, if some electoral votes aren’t counted for whatever reason, the majority threshold for winning the presidency falls. To understand how this works, think about the 2020 result, where Biden won the electoral vote count 306 to 232. If Pence or Congress threw out the results in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, Biden’s total would have dropped to 269 votes, and the election may have been thrown to the House even though he still led. Under the new standard, Biden would still win in this scenario, because he’s won a majority of the votes counted.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/21/23520649/electoral-count-reform-act-omnibus-trump

Some "fun" to me fact from The Constitution I didn't know:

DC appoints three EC voters - Amendment 23

Congratulations. Ya'll have changed my mind. I don't know if Trump can steal the election (I highly doubt it) but I'm coming around on the idea that regardless of who wins, there's going to be some localized violence and rioting.

Trapper Gus wrote:

MiamiSpartan wrote:
However, other experts say that you still need 270 electoral votes, and if not then it kicks to Congress. So if one state doesn't certify and the remaining electoral votes is 265 to 262, It goes to Congress.

(*Those numbers are just hypotheticals.  I dont give a fuck if that exact breakout is realistic or not, the point remains).

The 2022 reform of the 1887 Electoral Counting Act says otherwise according to the VOX article...

Third, if some electoral votes aren’t counted for whatever reason, the majority threshold for winning the presidency falls. To understand how this works, think about the 2020 result, where Biden won the electoral vote count 306 to 232. If Pence or Congress threw out the results in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, Biden’s total would have dropped to 269 votes, and the election may have been thrown to the House even though he still led. Under the new standard, Biden would still win in this scenario, because he’s won a majority of the votes counted.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/21/23520649/electoral-count-reform-act-omnibus-trump

Thanks, didn't know about that reform act. Looks like Joe Biden crushed it again. That eliminates one of my fears.

Further reading for others:
https://protectdemocracy.org/work/understanding-the-electoral-count-reform-act-of-2022/
Clarifies how a majority of appointed electors will be calculated. [Section 109]
The 12th Amendment provides that “[t]he person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be the majority of the whole number of Electors appointed.” Because the total number of electors that may be appointed (and usually are appointed) by the states is 538, a candidate with 270 or more electoral votes wins the election. But neither the Constitution nor the original ECA made clear what happens to the calculation if either a state fails to appoint some or all of its allotted electors, or Congress rejects electoral votes.

This legislation addresses this ambiguity by providing that in cases in which Congress rejects the appointment of electors as unlawful, the “whole number of electors appointed”—the denominator in the calculation—will be reduced. The provision makes it more difficult to manipulate the process by attempting to deprive a candidate of a majority in order to trigger a “contingent election” of the president by the House of Representatives or the vice president by the Senate (as provided for in the 12th Amendment). Because the ECRA does not explicitly address electoral votes that are rejected by Congress as not lawfully cast by appointed electors (i.e., not regularly given), the denominator presumably would not change in that circumstance.

DWags wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:Congratulations. Ya'll have changed my mind. I don't know if Trump can steal the election (I highly doubt it) but I'm coming around on the idea that regardless of who wins, there's going to be some localized violence and rioting.

I remember telling my daughter not to catch bees with her butterfly net. She didn’t agree with me. Sometimes it takes the less informed a while to catch on or a hard lesson to catch on. Such is life.

Ever since my kids were of drivers license age, I ask them please don’t drive cars after school on Halloween. Not that I was worried they were going to plow into a group of kids wearing masks running house the house and across the street. I just wanted them to be cautious, and eliminate possibilities of that happening

They always took that advice, And now I’m asking them just to stay home November 5 when they get home from work. Nobody’s gonna burn any to the ground, But being cautious, never hurt anybody.


We’ve already seen some voter drop boxes lit on fire

Yup. All solid advice. Although I really doubt we're going to have a declared winner by the time we go to bed on Nov. 5. It'll take a few days. And that will exacerbate the problems.

TravelinMan wrote:

DWags wrote:


 I remember telling my daughter not to catch bees with her butterfly net.  She didn’t agree with me.  Sometimes it takes the less informed a while to catch on or a hard lesson to catch on. Such is life.

Ever since my kids were of drivers license age, I ask them please don’t drive cars after school on Halloween.  Not that I was worried they were going to plow into a group of kids wearing masks running house the house and across the street.  I just wanted them to be cautious, and eliminate possibilities of that happening

They always took that advice, And now I’m asking them just to stay home November 5 when they get home from work.   Nobody’s gonna burn any to the ground, But being cautious, never hurt anybody.  


We’ve already seen some voter drop boxes lit on fire    

Yup.  All solid advice.  Although I really doubt we're going to have a declared winner by the time we go to bed on Nov. 5.  It'll take a few days.  And that will exacerbate the problems.

If it is a blue wave it won't take too long...

Here is another data point showing a lead for Harris even though more Republicans have voted...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280661/-CNN-Harris-leads-53-44-among-Arizonans-who-have-already-voted

Another doom prepper article:

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/30/house-democrats-violence-capitol-trump-jan-6

A friend knows Stuart Stevens.  He was a GOP advisor to Bush1, Romney and McCain along with advising GOP campaigns in races for governor, US Senate and Congress. He retired to Stowe VT.

His prediction is a Harris win Then, “I think after the election until January 20 is going to be the most dangerous period in America since The Civil War.

https://vtdigger.org/2024/10/30/vermont-conversation-ex-gop-strategist-stuart-stevens-on-the-presidential-election/