CFB Rankings 10/28 - actual

The complete College Football Playoff top 25 rankings (as of Oct. 28):
1. Mississippi State (7-0)
2. Florida State (7-0)
3. Auburn (6-1)
4. Ole Miss (7-1)
5. Oregon (7-1)
6. Alabama (7-1)
7. TCU (6-1)
8. Michigan State (7-1)
9. Kansas State (6-1)
10. Notre Dame (6-1)
11. Georgia (6-1)
12. Arizona (6-1)
13. Baylor (6-1)
14. Arizona State (6-1)
15. Nebraska (7-1)
16. Ohio State (6-1)
17. Utah (6-1)
18. Oklahoma (5-2)
19. LSU (7-2)
20. West Virginia (6-2)
21. Clemson (6-2)
22. UCLA (6-2)
23. East Carolina (6-1)
24. Duke (6-1)
25. Louisville (6-2)

OSU has no shot. No matter what their fans think.

looks like the committee listened to all the games on ESPN

Ole Miss - loss to 7-2 LSU (#19) but SEC
TCU lost 58-61 to #13 Baylor but just scored 82 points

http://awfulannouncing.com/2014/skepticism-healthy-espn.html

Ole Miss schedule

Boise - good a couple years ago
@ Vandy - not good
Louisiana-Lafayette - not good
Memphis - not good
Alabama - one of if not the most talented team, should be good and is getting better but not as good 10/4 as they are today
@ Texas A&M - meh and falling
Tennesse - not good
@ LSU - getting back from their slump and always a tough game at night


Left on the schedule
Auburn - Very good
Presbyterian -
@ Arkansas - sucks and hasn't won an SEC game since JLS was their coach...but ESPN will tell you how great they are
Miss St. - undefeated (beat Auburn and slumping LSU/T A&M along with greats like Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama and Kentucky)

CORNER BLITZ wrote:looks like the committee listened to all the games on ESPN

Ole Miss - loss to 7-2 LSU (#19) but SEC
TCU lost 58-61 to #13 Baylor but just scored 82 points    

1) Yeah- I thought losses late in the year were supposed to hurt you. And to a 2 loss team no less that should have lost to Wisconsin.
2) Giving up 61 Points??    And is scoring 82 points anything but opportunistic running-up the score.

We can thank
1) ourselves for blowing a 9 point late in the 3rd lead at Oregon
2) OSU for fuckingup against WV
3) Wisky for blowing a lead at LSU
4) SCum for not even showing up at ND
5) ourselves for letting up on Nebraska
6) No one else in the BT playing anyone worth a shit non-conference.
7) Shit teams like Rutgers and Maryland for diluting the BT Brand ( as if  
   it needed more dilution and diminution. )

Jethro Bodeen wrote:

1) Yeah- I thought losses late in the year were supposed to hurt you. And to a 2 loss team no less that should have lost to Wisconsin.
2) Giving up 58 Points??    And is scoring 82 points anything but opportunistic running-up the score.

We can thank
1) ourselves for blowing a 9 point late in the 3rd lead at Oregon
2) OSU for fuckingup against WV
3) Wisky for blowing a lead at LSU
4) SCum for not even showing up at ND
5) ourselves for letting up on Nebraska
6) No one else in the BT playing anyone worth a shit non-conference.
7) Shit teams like Rutgers and Maryland for diluting the BT Brand ( as if  
   it needed more dilution and diminution. )

the SEC non conference is garbage - all non conference schedules are garbage

Miss St plays Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, and UTM

Bama - WVU, Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, Western Carolina

Arkansas is on a 15 game SEC losing streak but a hot improving team according to ESPN so Bama playing them tight just proves that

Indiana, perenial bottom feeder of tB1G beat SEC Missouri at Missouri...but that was just a fluke and says nothing about either conference...

CORNER BLITZ wrote:

the SEC non conference is garbage - all non conference schedules are garbage

Miss St plays Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, and UTM

Bama - WVU, Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, Western Carolina

I hear you. Alabama only won by 10 against WVU who then lucked out vs OSU. Now WVU has been shown to be shit- but it doesn't matter.

I wouldn't worry about SEC bias at all. It's a committee. They aren't going to pick 2 SEC teams. It's not going to happen. It's going to create more uproar and chaos. And, it will lead to an 8 team playoff.

NigelUno wrote:I wouldn't worry about SEC bias at all. It's a committee. They aren't going to pick 2 SEC teams. It's not going to happen. It's going to create more uproar and chaos. And, it will lead to an 8 team playoff.

I'm sure ESPN would be in an uproar...

NigelUno wrote:I wouldn't worry about SEC bias at all. It's a committee. They aren't going to pick 2 SEC teams. It's not going to happen. It's going to create more uproar and chaos. And, it will lead to an 8 team playoff.

I believe the list tonight is very preliminary, it would be very disappointing to have 2 teams from the same conference in the final 4.
8 team playoff is inevitable.

CORNER BLITZ wrote:

I'm sure ESPN would be in an uproar...

You're going to have 3-4 fanbases that will be in an uproar, and ESPN will champion the cause for an 8 team playoff (which will have at least 2 SEC teams every year).

This season to me has always been about handling expectations. The team has done that mostly, but not by any means all game...shit, even Purdue put up a lot of points and kept it relatively close.

The team thought they just had to show up. Oregon didn't teach them anything. Nebraska almost came back on them. Lesson learned? Nope, see the Purdue game.

This team could be very good, but seems too hard to motivate. At least it was earlier. We need help, and that's only because they skated earlier, even in wins.

NigelUno wrote:

You're going to have 3-4 fanbases that will be in an uproar, and ESPN will champion the cause for an 8 team playoff (which will have at least 2 SEC teams every year).

Would love to see an SEC travel in Dec/Jan up north

CORNER BLITZ wrote:

Would love to see an SEC travel in Dec/Jan up north

Lambeau Field?

I no longer care if we get into the playoff if the playoff isn't going to be about conference champions. I couldn't care less if the best teams get left out of the playoff. Win your conference championship to punch your ticket, and let the committee vote on which conference champions get into the playoff.

I just want us to win out in dominant fashion and get the best available bowl game against the best available team that is left after the nonsense is all decided. If that happens to be an SEC team in one of the playoff bowl games then great.

Code_Warrior wrote:I no longer care if we get into the playoff if the playoff isn't going to be about conference champions. I couldn't care less if the best teams get left out of the playoff. Win your conference championship to punch your ticket, and let the committee vote on which conference champions get into the playoff.

I just want us to win out in dominant fashion and get the best available bowl game against the best available team that is left after the nonsense is all decided. If that happens to be an SEC team in one of the playoff bowl games then great.

Would you be cool with an 8-5 (4-4) conference champ getting in the playoff?

Seems to be weighted on who your loss was too, and your strength of schedule (well, except the SEC)....

NigelUno wrote:

Would you be cool with an 8-5 (4-4) conference champ getting in the playoff?

Yes. If there weren't 4 conference champions with better records. To me, only conference champions should make up the selection pool. Let the committee choose the 4 best among the conference champions. If one of them happens to be 8-5, and there were 4 conference champions with better records, then I would have an issue, otherwise I wouldn't.

I also think that there needs to be a new division in college football. Right now, the MAC, Conference USA, the Big East, and Mountain West have absolutely no shot at ever getting into the playoff scenario. There needs to be a division 1B with it's own national champion. Basically, the 5 power conferences make up their own division, and the playoff is decided among those 5 conference champions with the one with the worst record getting left out, or the committee can vote on who gets left out. A similar setup can be done for the division 1B schools.

"As an example of the kinds of discussions among the committee members, Long related an instance in which former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wondered why a team — Long didn't identify the specific team — rushed three defensive players and dropped eight players into coverage during a critical situation."

Seems like a weird thing for the committee to care about.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/10/28/how-college-football-playoff-selection-committee-came-to-first-ranking-decision/18090793/

tig ol bitties wrote:"As an example of the kinds of discussions among the committee members, Long related an instance in which former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wondered why a team — Long didn't identify the specific team — rushed three defensive players and dropped eight players into coverage during a critical situation."

Seems like a weird thing for the committee to care about.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/10/28/how-college-football-playoff-selection-committee-came-to-first-ranking-decision/18090793/

Oh, but we are told that Condolezza Rice is a football wonk. BULLSHIT. And I'm not a liberal Rice hater.  I know of NO women, much less many men that know enough football to evaluate Football with any sophistication. You don't have the TIME in normal life and the skills take years of playing and coaching to develop.

As a person that grew-up playing Football 10 years and then 10 years coaching mostly high school, and hanging out with lots of HS and college coaches- it takes YEARS of dedication- film study, practices, scouting, meetings, seminars and games in service at a coach to have a clue as to evaluating football teams. And even among that group of people, some are better than most in evaluation. And once you get out of the game, the game evolves and you naturally forget a lot of things and you start to look at the game as more of a fan again.

I see names like Alverez, Tom Osborn and Willingham, I'm thinking, sure- they are qualified. But Rice and some journalist, a couple of AD's and a Retired Military guy- WTF? I want guys that have coached at the college or NFL level, especially within the past 10 years. I want people that don't need to ask 1000 questions as to what they are looking at. I want people that know what its like to RUN a  D1 College Football team. Only they can efficiently and fairly evaluate relative strength. IMHO

Sorry Condi- and few of you guys including Pat Hayden, who a typical USC asshole- you aren't qualified. Some of those guys have been out of the game too long or have no playing/coaching credentials. They have no place on that committee. They have no credibility.

Condi Rice Not Qualified- Tommy Bowden

Michigan State football controls its playoff fate

Breathe, Michigan State. You didn’t get snubbed. Not even forgotten.

The College Football Playoff committee sent the Spartans a very subtle message Tuesday with a No. 8 ranking: Win out, and you’ll play for the national championship.

I don't know who this Seth Gruen is but, for now, I like his attitude.

I am shocked to see MSU fans whining about something..

Floyd Robertson wrote: Michigan State football controls its playoff fate



I don't know who this Seth Gruen is but, for now, I like his attitude.

I believe this statement to be true. Considering the amount of play left, the explanation to leave MSU out would be very difficult. No use looking at the early stuff. Win and let it take care of itself.

Graham Couch has an interesting opinion that if this was the actual final four, it would be the last final four and we'd be retooling for an eight team playoff next year.

Couch: Deep South CFB playoff isn't sustainable

Jake from State Farm wrote:

I am shocked to see bobby sak whining about whining.

I demand an apology..

Jake from State Farm wrote:

You'll get my apology when you can pry it from my cold dead fingers.

I'll take that over the "you've been warned" (for having an opinion different from mine) PM..

tig ol bitties wrote:"As an example of the kinds of discussions among the committee members, Long related an instance in which former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wondered why a team — Long didn't identify the specific team — rushed three defensive players and dropped eight players into coverage during a critical situation."

Seems like a weird thing for the committee to care about.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/10/28/how-college-football-playoff-selection-committee-came-to-first-ranking-decision/18090793/

don't worry, they're watching all the games on ESPN and getting the great commentary to teach them the game

Robert J Sakimano wrote:  

had a chance to start anew, and it began well...but certainly all downhill from the beginning

best wins

1. Mississippi State (7-0) - W6 Auburn 38-23
2. Florida State (7-0) - W7 Notre Dame 31-27
3. Auburn (6-1) - W3 @ KState 20-14
4. Ole Miss (7-1) - [bW5 ]Alabama 23-17[/b]
5. Oregon (7-1) - W2 Michigan State 46-27
6. Alabama (7-1) - W1 West Virginia 33-23 "neutral site - Georgia Dome
7. TCU (6-1) - W4 Oklahoma 37-33
8. Michigan State (7-1) - W5 Nebraska 27-22
9. Kansas State (6-1) - W6 @Oklahoma 31-30
10. Notre Dame (6-1) - W5 Stanford 17-14
11. Georgia (6-1) - W6 @Missouri 34-0
12. Arizona (6-1) - W5 @Oregon 31-24


Contemplated:
Loss to FSU as ND's best win
Beating Clemson Week 1 for Georgia's best win, but Clemson always chokes

Mississippi State with an 8.8% of going 12-0. FSU with a 12.2% chance of going 12-0. Auburn with a 9.1% chance of finishing 11-1. Bama with a 26.4% chance of finishing 11-1.

If you believe in these metrics, the shakeout over the next month is going to be monumental.



Projecting the College Football Playoff race using advanced stats

Floyd Robertson wrote:Mississippi State with an 8.8% of going 12-0. FSU with a 12.2% chance of going 12-0. Auburn with a 9.1% chance of finishing 11-1. Bama with a 26.4% chance of finishing 11-1.

If you believe in these metrics, the shakeout over the next month is going to be monumental.



Projecting the College Football Playoff race using advanced stats

So according to that, it is statistically most probable that MSU will beat OSU and lose to NEB in the B1G Championship... fuck that noise.

Rocinante wrote:

So according to that, it is statistically most probable that MSU will beat OSU and lose to NEB in the B1G Championship... fuck that noise.

Um, no. That's all regular season. 12 games.

InTenSity wrote:
I read it as, Nebraska has the best chance to be 11-1, which = 12 games. I don't think they took any conference championship game into effect, unless my math is wrong and they only play 11 games in the season.

Title games

There is, of course, a missing piece in the tables above: for teams in the SEC, Pac-12, Big Ten, and ACC, there might also be a conference title game involved. It's still a bit messy to get that involved in the tables, but here are odds for what could be some of the more relevant potential championship games.

Big Ten
No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Nebraska: MSU 58 percent.
No. 15 Nebraska vs. No. 16 Ohio State: Ohio State 60 percent.

I don't think I can call Nebraska a legitimate contender here until I see the Huskers leave Madison with a win. But from a statistical standpoint, they're a lot more legitimate than we're giving them credit for being at the moment. They have a very strong chance of winning the Big Ten right now.