CFB Rankings 10/28 - actual

Floyd Robertson wrote:

Um, no. That's all regular season. 12 games.

So according to that, it is statistically most probable that MSU loses to somebody, but apparently not OSU because OSU is statistically most probably going to lose another game too? Fuck that noise.

The only problem I have is with TCU. I have a problem with a team giving up 61 points to anyone. But maybe in the committees eyes there is no difference between losing 61-58 or 17-14 and it might even be a "good loss" because it was Baylor.
...doesn't matter though, they probably won't win out and if they do then they likely deserve the bid.

Floyd Robertson wrote:Mississippi State with an 8.8% of going 12-0. FSU with a 12.2% chance of going 12-0. Auburn with a 9.1% chance of finishing 11-1. Bama with a 26.4% chance of finishing 11-1.

If you believe in these metrics, the shakeout over the next month is going to be monumental.

That is really cool. I assume his model is a lot better than the one ESPN uses.

Under the old BCS formula, TCU wouldn't even be in the top 10, and MSU would be behind ND.



Brains behind BCS react to rankings