Early returns, etc.

Florida – GOP trails by 87,000, but that’s improved from 168,000 in 2012.
Arizona – GOP up 95,000 in returned absentee ballots.
Colorado – GOP up 7,000 in returned vote-by-mail ballots.
Iowa – GOP trails, but have outpaced 2012 while Dems trail their 2012 figures by 20,000.
Ohio – More complex data from the RNC here. Four counties that supported Obama in 2012 and 2008 (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Summit, and Hamilton) have seen a combined dropoff of 109,000 early votes from four years ago. Three GOP counties have seen modest increases — Warren, Greene, and Miami, but combined it adds up to 5,400 additional votes. Overall, early voting in Ohio increased by 11,000, which suggests that Democrats have lost ground in the Buckeye State.
Hamilton County is one of the seven counties featured in Going Red as bellwethers for the general election. Most of these same counties can be watched in Slate’s VoteCaster analysis, which is crunching early-vote numbers by county. Keep a couple of caveats in mind while reviewing this: Democrats tend to overperform on early voting, and these numbers marry early-vote counts to polling projections. No ballots have been counted yet, either. With those caveats in mind, this is where those counties stand with VoteCaster at the moment:

Hillsborough County, Florida — Mitt Romney lost this I-4 Corridor county by six points. Right now, Hillary appears to be leading 50.9/42.7 in the early vote. If that bears out, then Trump will need a huge burst of Election Day voting to make up the deficit.
Hamilton County, Ohio – Thanks to a bad graphic placement, the data from the county is obscured, but it’s marked blue — not a great sign for Trump, but possibly a narrow margin here.
Wake County, North Carolina — VoteCaster isn’t tracking North Carolina, but overall the GOP has cast 115,000 more ballots than in 2012, while the Democrat total has dropped by 20,000.
Brown County, Wisconsin — Trump narrowly leads 47.3/45.2. Republicans have to run up the score by ten points or more in Brown in order to win. (Bonus: Waukesha looks solidly Republican, but the data also runs outside of the border.)
Jefferson County, Colorado — Hillary leads 48.4/42.3.
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire – No data at all.
We’ll add in a few Pennsylvania counties as well. These actually look more promising for Trump:

Bucks County — Hillary leads 49.3/43.6, but Obama barely won this county in 2012, 50/49.
Berks County — Trump is way up 52.7/39.8, and Romney only barely won here, 50/49.
Lackawanna County — Hillary has a two-point edge here, 47.8/45.8; Obama won 63/36 in 2012.
Luzerne County — Obama won 52/47, but right now Slate’s VoteCaster shows Trump way up, 52.5/40.9.

Clinton has contacted twice the voters Trump has
Majority say Obama was not a factor in their vote
Majority say the new president will have a mandate to govern
Hillary Clinton has a substantial edge over Donald Trump so far when it comes to their campaigns’ respective ground games, a new Morning Consult/POLITICO exit poll of nearly 10,000 voters shows.

While most voters (62 percent) said they were not contacted by either presidential campaign, more than twice as many voters said they were contacted by Clinton’s campaign (17 percent) than Trump’s (8 percent). Another 9 percent said they were contacted by both campaigns.

Donald Trump has a large advantage among white voters without a college degree, MSNBC reported Tuesday, 65 percent to 29 percent, outpacing Mitt Romney’s lead among these voters in his losing campaign four years ago.

But Trump and Clinton are neck-and-neck among white voters with a college degree — an otherwise reliably Republican cohort over the past 50 years of election polling.

Clinton, meanwhile, is winning a majority of voters under age 30, 51 percent to 34 percent — a smaller percentage than President Barack Obama did in 2012.

The full survey is embargoed until the polls close across most of the country, but the six members of the National Election Pool were permitted to report nuggets from the survey that don’t characterize the outcome beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. The numbers are certain to change, perhaps significantly, throughout the night.

MSNBC also reported a 7-point edge in party identification for Democrats, 38 percent to 31 percent.

Clinton is better liked than Trump, though majorities have unfavorable opinions of each. Clinton’s image rating is 44 percent favorable/54 percent unfavorable — more positive than Trump’s 37 percent favorable/61 percent unfavorable.

Moreover, more voters say Clinton is honest and trustworthy (38 percent) than describe Trump as honest and trustworthy (32

percent).

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Clinton gon win

LooseGoose wrote:1st Senate call is those damned racist R's re-electing Senator Tim Scott in SC.

LooseGoose wrote:Ben Swasey ‏@benswasey 5m5 minutes ago
In Florida, right now:

Johnson + Stein = 226,000

Difference between Clinton and Trump = 4,280

LooseGoose wrote:lol, Trump leading by 28 votes out of 8 million.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:Ben Swasey ‏@benswasey 5m5 minutes ago
In Florida, right now:

Johnson + Stein = 226,000

Difference between Clinton and Trump = 4,280

LooseGoose wrote:lol, Trump leading by 28 votes out of 8 million.

These two seem to be mighty contradictory yeah?

NigelUno wrote:Loose hates Trump, but seems to be reporting any possible good news for Trump.

Huh.

LooseGoose wrote:

NigelUno wrote:Loose hates Trump, but seems to be reporting any possible good news for Trump.

Huh.

Listen stupid ass - name me some good news for Hills yet tonight?

She's lost FL, NC & OH.

Got any good news to report?

Fuck you. I'll go elsewhere.