2022 Midterm & Michigan Elections - Who Ya Got Winning?

by **Trapper Gus** Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:32 am

First here is an expert on the redistricting nationally

The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP's favor than the last decade's. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden's approval ratings are still mired in the low-to-mid 40s in November, that won't be enough to save their razor-thin House majority (currently 221 to 212 seats).

"Because Democrats currently possess the lion's share of marginal seats, estimating the practical effect of new lines in 2022 still points towards a wash or a slight GOP gain."

So, it will be really tough unless people start believing in Biden.

Michigan, on the other hand ....

Experts say the US Districts are "rigged" to be split 7 to 6 for the Democratic Party.

And ...

Democrats could have the best chance to flip the Michigan Legislature in decades under new legislative districts approved Tuesday by the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission.

Republicans have controlled the state Senate since the early 1980s and now have a 22-16 advantage in the chamber, but Democrats would have an edge in 20 districts under the “Linden” map approved by the citizens panel, according to a Bridge Michigan analysis.

As for the Statewide races, US Senators are off the table this election, Governor is an incumbent, so she has the advantage, same with SoS and AG.

by **Trapper Gus** Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:57 pm

A WDIV/Detroit News poll asked voters about their thoughts on Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s job performance, as well as potential challengers to her re-election bid. Here are some of the findings:

WHITMER APPROVAL TRENDING UP AFTER DIP
Survey results show voters view Gov. Whitmer favorably by a margin of 47.6% favorable to 39.6% unfavorable. Whitmer is viewed favorably by Independent voters by a margin of 49.0% favorable to 32.9% unfavorable.

56.2% of Michigan voters approve of the job being done by Gretchen Whitmer as governor, compared to 38.7% who disapprove.
That’s an improvement for Whitmer from the Fall, when her approval rating was 48.3% and her disapproval was near 44%.

So what’s driving the improvement? Survey results show it’s Independent voters.

In September 2020, 51.2% of Independents disapproved of her performance. They now approve of her performance by a margin 62.3% approve to 27.9% disapprove. Her approval among independent voters has gone from -11% to +34.4% -- a 45-point reversal.

Notably, while Whitmer has 62.3% job approval among Independent voters, Joe Biden has only 39.4% job approval among independent voters, the WDIV/Detroit News survey found.

by **Robert J Sakimano** Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:00 pm

Whitmer, Nessel and Benson re-elected. The state House and Senate will still be controlled by the anti-American, racist christian knuckle-scrapers but the margin will narrow.

by PennSpartan Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:26 pm

Who cares? It’s Michigan. A shithole. That place has gone downhill so much in 60 years it’s unreal. The middle class and education leader of the nation became a place that tries to kidnap the Governor. Ted Nugent should be elected so he can make guns mandatory and school optional. Oh, and child rape would be approved by the Motor City Madman. What a dump.

by **Trapper Gus** Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:14 pm

PennSpartan wrote:Who cares? It’s Michigan. A shithole. That place has gone downhill so much in 60 years it’s unreal. The middle class and education leader of the nation became a place that tries to kidnap the Governor. Ted Nugent should be elected so he can make guns mandatory and school optional. Oh, and child rape would be approved by the Motor City Madman. What a dump.

Term limits caused most of the issues, stupidest idea ever.

by AvgMSUJoe Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:34 pm

PennSpartan wrote:Who cares? It’s Michigan. A shithole. That place has gone downhill so much in 60 years it’s unreal. The middle class and education leader of the nation became a place that tries to kidnap the Governor. Ted Nugent should be elected so he can make guns mandatory and school optional. Oh, and child rape would be approved by the Motor City Madman. What a dump.

1) quit being an asshole.
2) ted moved to Texas decades ago.
3) term limits definitely hurt, most state senators are douchy poly sci majors complete with bow ties. Because serious people won't quit their career for a temp low paying gig.
4) gerrymandering hit mi hard.

by PennSpartan Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:15 am

AvgMSUJoe wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:Who cares? It’s Michigan. A shithole. That place has gone downhill so much in 60 years it’s unreal. The middle class and education leader of the nation became a place that tries to kidnap the Governor. Ted Nugent should be elected so he can make guns mandatory and school optional. Oh, and child rape would be approved by the Motor City Madman. What a dump.
1) quit being an asshole.
2) ted moved to Texas decades ago.
3) term limits definitely hurt, most state senators are douchy poly sci majors complete with bow ties. Because serious people won't quit their career for a temp low paying gig.
4) gerrymandering hit mi hard.

1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

by PennSpartan Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:24 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:Who cares? It’s Michigan. A shithole. That place has gone downhill so much in 60 years it’s unreal. The middle class and education leader of the nation became a place that tries to kidnap the Governor. Ted Nugent should be elected so he can make guns mandatory and school optional. Oh, and child rape would be approved by the Motor City Madman. What a dump.

Term limits caused most of the issues, stupidest idea ever.

So I did a quick search on term limits in Michigan. Said it was enacted in 1992. Michigan was going downhill long before that. Also said 59% of voters approved the bill. That’s called a majority. Something Democrats in Washington don’t seem to understand right now, sadly.

by **Cameron** Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:38 am

PennSpartan wrote:
AvgMSUJoe wrote:
1) quit being an asshole.
2) ted moved to Texas decades ago.
3) term limits definitely hurt, most state senators are douchy poly sci majors complete with bow ties. Because serious people won't quit their career for a temp low paying gig.
4) gerrymandering hit mi hard.
1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

Do you find that people often respond well to talking shit about their home state?

Fucking dipshit...

by **MiamiSpartan** Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:42 am

PennSpartan wrote:
AvgMSUJoe wrote:
1) quit being an asshole.
2) ted moved to Texas decades ago.
3) term limits definitely hurt, most state senators are douchy poly sci majors complete with bow ties. Because serious people won't quit their career for a temp low paying gig.
4) gerrymandering hit mi hard.
1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

Calling you an asshole isn't trying to silence your view. It's just saying you're an asshole. Since you weirdly label anyone who disagrees with you about sports, pets, or their favorite food as a Trumper, it's ironically very Trumpy/FoxNews of you to equate calling you an asshole with trying to silence you.

I mean, you have people who live in Michigan talking about Michigan politics, and your response is, "Who cares?" Umm, the people that live in Michigan care. And I care what happens in Michigan. As well as Pennsylvania and the rest of the country (and other countries for that matter).

by **kingstonlake** Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:47 am

PennSpartan wrote:
AvgMSUJoe wrote:
1) quit being an asshole.
2) ted moved to Texas decades ago.
3) term limits definitely hurt, most state senators are douchy poly sci majors complete with bow ties. Because serious people won't quit their career for a temp low paying gig.
4) gerrymandering hit mi hard.
1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

Please post after your first coffee, bro.

by PennSpartan Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:19 am

Cameron wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

Do you find that people often respond well to talking shit about their home state?

Fucking dipshit...

Pay your student loans off instead of spending so much time here, loser.

by PennSpartan Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:20 am

MiamiSpartan wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

Calling you an asshole isn't trying to silence your view. It's just saying you're an asshole. Since you weirdly label anyone who disagrees with you about sports, pets, or their favorite food as a Trumper, it's ironically very Trumpy/FoxNews of you to equate calling you an asshole with trying to silence you.

I mean, you have people who live in Michigan talking about Michigan politics, and your response is, "Who cares?" Umm, the people that live in Michigan care. And I care what happens in Michigan. As well as Pennsylvania and the rest of the country (and other countries for that matter).

Glad we cleared that up, asshole.

by PennSpartan Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:21 am

kingstonlake wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

Please post after your first coffee, bro.

I did. I’m up early most of the time.

by **Trapper Gus** Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:32 am

AvgMSUJoe wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:Who cares? It’s Michigan. A shithole. That place has gone downhill so much in 60 years it’s unreal. The middle class and education leader of the nation became a place that tries to kidnap the Governor. Ted Nugent should be elected so he can make guns mandatory and school optional. Oh, and child rape would be approved by the Motor City Madman. What a dump.
1) quit being an asshole.
2) ted moved to Texas decades ago.
3) term limits definitely hurt, most state senators are douchy poly sci majors complete with bow ties. Because serious people won't quit their career for a temp low paying gig.
4) gerrymandering hit mi hard.

Term limits were a Republican effort to take over Michigan, once they did then they gerrymandered the heck out of the districts. Looking like the Democratic Party will have a fighting chance to regain some control in 2022 with the neutral districting commission. In a State that is typically 51/49 popular vote in the Democratic Party's favor, 30 years of Republican control of the legislature is a testament to term limits and gerrymandering.

by **Trapper Gus** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:16 am

Robert J Sakimano wrote:Whitmer, Nessel and Benson re-elected. The state House and Senate will still be controlled by the anti-American, racist christian knuckle-scrapers but the margin will narrow.

The new district maps are, in theory, tilted slightly to the Democratic side, so it will be interesting to see what a election with a competitive districting map creates.

by **kingstonlake** Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:43 pm

[tw]1482374084868681737?s=21[/tw]

by aualum06 Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:52 pm

kingstonlake wrote:[tw]1482374084868681737?s=21[/tw]

Let's cheat!

by **Trapper Gus** Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:45 am

I'm seeing the next election as the Fox News Karl Rove come to Jesus moment, when the Republican election officials cannot believe that Democratic candidates won.

by **Trapper Gus** Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:45 am

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/experts-politics-well-science-fuel-whitmer-covid-mask-decisions

Yet it will be part of the debate over whether the lockdowns — Michigan’s stay-at-home order lasted 70 days beginning March 23 — worked.

A University of Michigan health economist, Olga Yakusheva, conducted a similar study, released in December.

It concluded that the lockdowns saved lives, between 866,000 and 1.7 million in the United States alone.

by **Floyd Robertson** Fri Mar 25, 2022 2:28 pm

I don't think Dana Nessel has too much to be worried about by this fine, upstanding Republican challenger.

[tw]1506986803332583426[/tw]

by **Jake from State Farm** Fri Mar 25, 2022 2:34 pm

Floyd Robertson wrote:I don't think Dana Nessel has too much to be worried about by this fine, upstanding Republican challenger.

[tw]1506986803332583426[/tw]

With that resume I'm surprised Trump hasn't offered him a job.

by PennSpartan Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:57 am

Democrat Conor Lamb for Senate in Pennsylvania. The GOP has Dr. Oz and David McCormick fighting to kiss Trump’s ass the most. It’s hilarious. John Fetterman is the Progressive who will face off against Lamb.

by RQA Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:03 am

PennSpartan wrote:
I’m up early most of the time.

BPH?

by PennSpartan Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:56 am

RQA wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
I’m up early most of the time.

BPH?

No, more like LTM (love the morning)

by RQA Sat Mar 26, 2022 1:56 pm

PennSpartan wrote:
No, more like LTM (love the morning)

GRR's grumpiness is also due to LTM.

Lost The Metamucil.

by **Trapper Gus** Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:44 pm

Do RQA's posts have anything to do with the Michigan oe mid-term elections?

I'm thinking the AG is the Conservatives best chance, but since their frontrunner was just fired for breaking the law maybe not.

by RQA Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:48 pm

Trapper Gus wrote:

Yet it will be part of the debate over whether the lockdowns — Michigan’s stay-at-home order lasted 70 days beginning March 23 — worked.

They didn't.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

by PennSpartan Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:16 pm

RQA wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

Yet it will be part of the debate over whether the lockdowns — Michigan’s stay-at-home order lasted 70 days beginning March 23 — worked.

They didn't.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

I stopped reading when I saw none of the authors were doctors, or even medical professionals. Bottom line, you sit in a room with ten people infected with Covid for a month and I’ll sit in a room by myself. Who do you think has a better chance of getting infected? You don’t even need a medical degree to answer that!

by **Trapper Gus** Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:08 pm

PennSpartan wrote:
RQA wrote:

They didn't.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf
I stopped reading when I saw none of the authors were doctors, or even medical professionals. Bottom line, you sit in a room with ten people infected with Covid for a month and I’ll sit in a room by myself. Who do you think has a better chance of getting infected? You don’t even need a medical degree to answer that!

Good choice, as the authors call any restriction at all a lock down.

Meanwhile we have the examples of total lockdowns being very effective.

btw - for RQA's benefit, this was a "Meta Data" analysis run by economists. The issue with economics is that there are too many people in it who decide which side is theirs's first, and then they cherry pick stuff to support their arguments. The RWNJ side never, ever, admits it is wrong, even when the facts of the ground show otherwise. We are still waiting for all the RWNJ economists who predicted inflation in 2009 to say they were wrong, even though it has been clear for many years that they were.

by **Floyd Robertson** Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:31 am

Interesting development about the biggest scumbag R family in MI (outside of the DeVos' I guess).

[tw]1519084441678848003[/tw]

by **Trapper Gus** Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:37 am

Floyd Robertson wrote:Interesting development about the biggest scumbag R family in MI (outside of the DeVos' I guess).

[tw]1519084441678848003[/tw]

It is more likely an internal power struggle than a disagreement about Trump.

Read today that the Republicians have one guy running for Govenor who doesn't support all the Trump lies.

by **NigelUno** Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:41 am

Trapper Gus wrote:
Floyd Robertson wrote:Interesting development about the biggest scumbag R family in MI (outside of the DeVos' I guess).

[tw]1519084441678848003[/tw]

It is more likely an internal power struggle than a disagreement about Trump.

Read today that the Republicians have one guy running for Govenor who doesn't support all the Trump lies.

The decision to remove a member from a Michigan caucus is rare. The last Michigan state Rep. to be removed from caucus was in 2019, when Grand Traverse Co. Republican Rep. Larry Inman was removed after being charged with bribery, extortion and lying to an FBI agent.

by **Floyd Robertson** Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:50 am

NigelUno wrote:
Trapper Gus wrote:

It is more likely an internal power struggle than a disagreement about Trump.

Read today that the Republicians have one guy running for Govenor who doesn't support all the Trump lies.

The decision to remove a member from a Michigan caucus is rare. The last Michigan state Rep. to be removed from caucus was in 2019, when Grand Traverse Co. Republican Rep. Larry Inman was removed after being charged with bribery, extortion and lying to an FBI agent.

That article makes it seem it's a rare event but the only ones who get removed are Republicans. 2022 Midterm & Michigan Elections - Who Ya Got Winning? 2803167989

2022 Midterm & Michigan Elections - Who Ya Got Winning? 2803167989

by **Floyd Robertson** Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:57 am

Matt Maddock decries ‘mess’ after expulsion from Michigan House GOP caucus

The second-term state lawmaker’s quest to remake the House into a “MAGA operation” has alienated some colleagues, and his expulsion from the GOP caucus has emerged as the latest front in a bitter battle between fierce Trump loyalists and more traditional Republicans for control of the party.

Good, fight amongst yourselves.

by **Trapper Gus** Sun May 01, 2022 8:47 am

Seems like the Republicans will be divided in November; however they probably will still vote against the Democratics.

by NumbersDude Sun May 01, 2022 11:23 am

Cameron wrote:
PennSpartan wrote:
1) Some of you are worse than Trump in your attempt to silence a view that doesn’t agree with your little cult here. Fuck off.

Do you find that people often respond well to talking shit about their home state?

Fucking dipshit...

Penn being Penn

2022 Midterm & Michigan Elections - Who Ya Got Winning? 40426b10

by **GRR Spartan** Sun May 01, 2022 1:34 pm

6 months is a lifetime in politics. Way too long and too many opportunities for things to change between now and November.

For example Gov Granholm vs Dick DeVos. In June EPIC-MRA showed DeVos leading by 8 points. Granholm campaign spent $15.7M while DeVos spent $42.7M ($35M of his own plus $7.2M GOP money)

Election Day showed DeVos squandering the 8 point lead to lose by 14 points. A 22 point swing despite spending $22M more than his incumbent opponent.

Right now it appears the 3 leading GOP candidates for governor are having ballot petition signatures challenged by Democrats and some old GOP money wanting more moderate (not Trump endorsed) candidate.

Redistricting isn’t going to harm the GOP in MI but they can still struggle in state wide elections.

by **Trapper Gus** Sun May 01, 2022 7:37 pm

GRR Spartan wrote:6 months is a lifetime in politics. Way too long and too many opportunities for things to change between now and November.

For example Gov Granholm vs Dick DeVos. In June EPIC-MRA showed DeVos leading by 8 points. Granholm campaign spent $15.7M while DeVos spent $42.7M ($35M of his own plus $7.2M GOP money)

Election Day showed DeVos squandering the 8 point lead to lose by 14 points. A 22 point swing despite spending $22M more than his incumbent opponent.

Right now it appears the 3 leading GOP candidates for governor are having ballot petition signatures challenged by Democrats and some old GOP money wanting more moderate (not Trump endorsed) candidate.

Redistricting isn’t going to harm the GOP in MI but they can still struggle in state wide elections.

All the analysis I have seen regarding the new districts that the independent commission came up both for the State districts & the Federal districts with said that in split between Democratic & Republican voters there is a slight lean to the Democratic side.

It will be interesting to see how that works out.

by AvgMSUJoe Sun May 01, 2022 8:27 pm

Trapper Gus wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:6 months is a lifetime in politics. Way too long and too many opportunities for things to change between now and November.

For example Gov Granholm vs Dick DeVos. In June EPIC-MRA showed DeVos leading by 8 points. Granholm campaign spent $15.7M while DeVos spent $42.7M ($35M of his own plus $7.2M GOP money)

Election Day showed DeVos squandering the 8 point lead to lose by 14 points. A 22 point swing despite spending $22M more than his incumbent opponent.

Right now it appears the 3 leading GOP candidates for governor are having ballot petition signatures challenged by Democrats and some old GOP money wanting more moderate (not Trump endorsed) candidate.

Redistricting isn’t going to harm the GOP in MI but they can still struggle in state wide elections.

All the analysis I have seen regarding the new districts that the independent commission came up both for the State districts & the Federal districts with said that in split between Democratic & Republican voters there is a slight lean to the Democratic side.

It will be interesting to see how that works out.

When it was a strong R lean to neutral, it might be more noticeable than 50/50 split might imply....

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