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Load up boys - State getting double digits in Ann Arbor

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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 1st 2017, 4:38 pm

Gambolers get your re-up to Goose

Opened at 13
Went to 11
Back to 13.5


Last edited by Dr. Strangelove on October 2nd 2017, 9:52 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 1st 2017, 4:40 pm

Should be around +400 on the ml
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Post by Other Teams Pursuing That October 1st 2017, 4:45 pm

No way
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 1st 2017, 4:50 pm

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:No way

Way.

It was 15 this summer. I thought it would be 10.

Remember this is the opening number and could bounce around depending on the action.
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Post by Other Teams Pursuing That October 1st 2017, 4:51 pm

Anything over 9.5, all in.
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Post by Other Teams Pursuing That October 1st 2017, 4:51 pm

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Anything over 9.5, all in.

ML*
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 1st 2017, 7:07 pm

Now MSU +11 which would make ml +300 or so
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 2nd 2017, 9:51 am

And Michigan $ came back in at 11 and now it's State +13.5
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Post by Robert J Sakimano October 2nd 2017, 11:07 am

I don't gamble..

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Post by Other Teams Pursuing That October 2nd 2017, 11:08 am

Strange love when do I take MSU ML? Now?
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 2nd 2017, 12:38 pm

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Strange love when do I take MSU ML? Now?

I don't think it will go much higher (maybe 14) you'd be getting great value locking in now
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 3rd 2017, 6:32 am

And this morning? The roller coaster has State getting 10.5.
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Post by Tim Wakefield October 3rd 2017, 7:46 am

Wow

I don't think it crosses 10 so you minus well wait
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Post by Other Teams Pursuing That October 3rd 2017, 8:28 am

Fuck
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Post by Robert J Sakimano October 3rd 2017, 8:36 am

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Fuck
what's the "ML"? Load up boys - State getting double digits in Ann Arbor 4113017228
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Post by DWags October 3rd 2017, 8:44 am

Which team will win outright regardless of points.
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Post by Robert J Sakimano October 3rd 2017, 8:47 am

DWags wrote:Which team will win outright regardless of points.
sweet - thanks.

I'm not real big on paying attention to the spreads.. though I guess it can just indicate which way the money is flowing.. I do think the over/unders can be interesting.
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 3rd 2017, 10:07 am

O/U is 41.5

ML (depending on book) is MSU +310 / UM -390
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Post by Other Teams Pursuing That October 3rd 2017, 10:25 am

Dr. Strangelove wrote:O/U is 41.5

ML (depending on book) is MSU +310 / UM -390

Missed out on some juice. Hope it goes back up.
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Post by Nordic October 3rd 2017, 11:04 am

Wow. Down to 10.5. I jumped on 14 Sunday night. I like the under too. This will be a defensive struggle. 41 in college is a tough number though.
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Post by DWags October 3rd 2017, 11:11 am

Dantonio is 10-0 vs. Spread against Michigan.
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 4th 2017, 10:05 am

It's still 10 but o/u has dropped to 40 with some 39 and 39.5s showing
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Post by NigelUno October 4th 2017, 10:10 am

DWags wrote:Dantonio is 10-0 vs. Spread against Michigan.

Good coaching and/or inflated spreads?
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Post by Dr. Strangelove October 4th 2017, 11:39 am

Contrary to popular opinion the spread doesn't necessarily mean the favored team is supposed to win by the listed margin.

The spread is generated to attract even money from both sides of the betting public. In a perfect bookie world they have even bets on both sides and simply collect the ten percent viggorish. When betting with the spread the vig is the price you pay to place your bet - you have to bet (generally) $110 to win $100.

That hardly ever happens that's why you hear about books being "heavy" on one side and getting hurt when favorites cover.

Generally they make about 5% profit in the long haul taking bets.

The spread takes into account a number of factors including: strengths and weaknesses of the squads playing, where the game is, when the game is, predicted weather, is it a big TV game, and are "public" teams involved.

The general betting public is stupid - they like to bet favorites, overs and "public" teams. Public teams are teams that have been successful over the long haul and have large national fanbases: Michigan, Bama, Florida State, etc in college and Steelers, Cowboys and Packers in NFL.

In this matchup if the name on jersey was "Iowa" and the venue was Spartan Stadium and considering all the factors I'd say it would be a pick em. Michigan's D is better than Iowa's but their O is the same.
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Post by Other Teams Pursuing That October 4th 2017, 12:05 pm

^ this guy gets it. Thank you dr.
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Post by y2kMgrad October 4th 2017, 9:13 pm

I'm not a gambler but I'd take the points, even at 10. I really think this will be a very tight, 4th quarter game. And likely low scoring too. I do not see either team winning this one in a blowout. 10 points seems like a lot in this rivalry.
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Post by DWags October 4th 2017, 9:27 pm

If it is a defensive game, Michigan is playing on a much shorter field than MSU. I'd say at least ten yards shorter. They get 3 points almost automatically from the 35 yard line in. I wouldn't say MSU is near that. 25 yards in I'm comfortable. That's a big difference. Hell it might make me sleep with a kid if it shortened my field by ten yards.
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