tOfficial 2018 Midterm Election Thread..

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-04, 12:41

with Labor Day behind us, here is where we talk midterm elections/predictions/results.

I suspect the Dems will pick up 15-18 House seats - not a majority (they need 23, I think). I think they (Dems) will actually lose at least one Senate seat, maybe two.

in Michigan, I do think Whitmer will probably beat Schuette by 3-4 %.

by AvgMSUJoe 2018-09-04, 13:29

As of today....

tOfficial 2018 Midterm Election Thread.. 2018-011

The shithead cant get worse, so... interested what could move the numbers. Maybe a carpet bomb campaign by dems stating the obvious of vote for us if you hate any one of the millions bad things dipshit has done...

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-04, 13:35

yeah, see I don't buy into that stuff..

I just kind of go by the vibe I get. Which is actually an aggregate of a jumbled up conglomerate of foggy observations and vague conversations, tempered with nearly 49 years of skeptical suspicion.

by AvgMSUJoe 2018-09-04, 14:14

Robert J Sakimano wrote:yeah, see I don't buy into that stuff..

I just kind of go by the vibe I get. Which is actually an aggregate of a jumbled up conglomerate of foggy observations and vague conversations, tempered with nearly 49 years of skeptical suspicion.

With the scientific method you employ, I get the feeling you weren't a College of Natural Science major...

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-04, 14:20

AvgMSUJoe wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:yeah, see I don't buy into that stuff..

I just kind of go by the vibe I get. Which is actually an aggregate of a jumbled up conglomerate of foggy observations and vague conversations, tempered with nearly 49 years of skeptical suspicion.

With the scientific method you employ, I get the feeling you weren't a College of Natural Science major...

I barely graduated high school.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-05, 12:57

Whitmer leading between 8-10 points.. if you believe the mainstream media.

(My advice.. don't believe the mainstream media).

Caution: Mainstream media link

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-10, 14:21

Rick Snyder refuses to endorse Schuette..

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Two months before the November election, Gov. Rick Snyder has announced he will not endorse any of the candidates vying to replace him. Not even fellow republican Bill Schuette.

Caution: Mainstream Media Link

by AvgMSUJoe 2018-09-10, 15:31

Robert J Sakimano wrote:Rick Snyder refuses to endorse Schuette..

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Two months before the November election, Gov. Rick Snyder has announced he will not endorse any of the candidates vying to replace him. Not even fellow republican Bill Schuette.

Caution: Mainstream Media Link

Ya know, him being responsible for poisoning a generation of kids is unfortunate. 'Cause I believe he is a republican with some slight assemblance of morals, and that is rare these days.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-10, 15:34

AvgMSUJoe wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:Rick Snyder refuses to endorse Schuette..

Caution: Mainstream Media Link

Ya know, him being responsible for poisoning a generation of kids is unfortunate. 'Cause I believe he is a republican with some slight assemblance of morals, and that is rare these days.

I tend to agree - other than him poisoning a city made up of a majority of African Americans, he sometimes shows a shred of morality.. which, as you mention, is pretty rare for a Republican.

I think I read somewhere that he was quoted as not only not endorsing Schuette but that he probably wouldn't even vote for him at all.

by **kingstonlake** 2018-09-10, 18:56

Bob have you figured in the potential of there being a audio tape released where it has Trump recorded using the N word? That's at least a 25 seat gain in the house and probably 4-6 Senate seat gain.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2018-09-10, 19:09

kingstonlake wrote:Bob have you figured in the potential of there being a audio tape released where it has Trump recorded using the N word? That's at least a 25 seat gain in the house and probably 4-6 Senate seat gain.

I really don’t think it would move the needle very much. Is there really many people sitting in the middle that is like “you know what I’m just not sure if this guy is a racist or not.” At this point either you know he is and hate it, know he is and love it, have deluded yourself into thinking he isn’t and won’t be convinced otherwise.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2018-09-10, 19:09

For the record the democrats will win the house, the senate will be tied, ted Cruz will lose.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-25, 10:10

I'm not overly excited about Elissa Slotkin - she's a little conservative for my tastes - but if I had a "pet issue" or was a single issue voter, it would be in support of universal healthcare for every American.

great, great ad she and her team put together here.

by **DWags** 2018-09-25, 10:28

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:For the record the democrats will win the house, the senate will be tied, ted Cruz will lose.

He pretty much got his ass kicked in the debate. The new guy has President written all over himself.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-09-25, 10:44

DWags wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:For the record the democrats will win the house, the senate will be tied, ted Cruz will lose.

He pretty much got his ass kicked in the debate. The new guy has President written all over himself.

I like O'Rourke a lot - the fact that he's even within single digits in Texas says a lot about how capable he is.

I'm actually surprised Cruz even agreed to debate him - after the first one, I'm thinking Cruz might be well-advised to duck him from here on out.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-10-02, 09:53

if you believe polling and the media, looks like Proposal 2 has a good shot at passing.

Michigan Proposal 2, the Independent Redistricting Commission Initiative, is on the ballot in Michigan as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 6, 2018.[1]

A "yes" vote supports transfering the power to draw the state's congressional and legislative districts from the state legislature to an independent redistricting commission.

A "no" vote opposes transfering the power to draw the state's congressional and legislative districts from the state legislature to an independent redistricting commission.

(basically designed to end gerrymandering in the state.. in theory).

by **steveschneider** 2018-10-02, 10:07

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
DWags wrote:

He pretty much got his ass kicked in the debate. The new guy has President written all over himself.
I like O'Rourke a lot - the fact that he's even within single digits in Texas says a lot about how capable he is.

I'm actually surprised Cruz even agreed to debate him - after the first one, I'm thinking Cruz might be well-advised to duck him from here on out.

He's very impressive and gives me a lot of hope for the future. Saw that voter registration is way up in Texas which is encouraging. Really hope he pulls it off.

by **DWags** 2018-10-02, 10:14

GRAB EM BY THE MIDTERMS!

Saw that sign earlier.

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2018-10-02, 22:31

GOP picks up 2 in Senate and loses 22 in House are my calls.

by **steveschneider** 2018-10-03, 19:33

Sigh.

https://twitter.com/_justinlevitt_/status/1047543133657939968

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-10-03, 20:58

steveschneider wrote:Sigh.

https://twitter.com/_justinlevitt_/status/1047543133657939968

yep.

Parents need to do a better job rising their kids to be engaged.

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2018-10-03, 21:25

Show me a politician depending on the youth vote and I'll show you a loser

by **GRR Spartan** 2018-10-03, 21:37

Dr. Strangelove wrote:Show me a politician depending on the youth vote and I'll show you a loser

So President Obama screwed the poch twice?

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2018-10-03, 21:57

GRR Spartan wrote:
Dr. Strangelove wrote:Show me a politician depending on the youth vote and I'll show you a loser

So President Obama screwed the poch twice?

He didn't depend on it. It was nice to have but what he needed and got was a great turnout by minorities and women voters.

If no one under age 25 had voted Obama would have still be elected twice

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2018-10-03, 23:14

It has nothing to do with Obama. This is a midterm election. Presidential elections don’t apply.

Truth is though that 26% would recent historically be high for a midterm. Especially considering that that’s “certain to vote” and I’m comparing it to numbers that are “actually did vote this election was years ago.” The actual number stands to be higher than 26% this year.

Now that said obviously it’s not nearly enough and if young people would ever be engaged I don’t know why it wouldn’t be right now.

tOfficial 2018 Midterm Election Thread.. Dc896110

by **DWags** 2018-10-04, 02:50

Women of all ages will definitely make this election go one way or the other.

by **steveschneider** 2018-10-04, 07:49

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:It has nothing to do with Obama. This is a midterm election. Presidential elections don’t apply.

Truth is though that 26% would recent historically be high for a midterm. Especially considering that that’s “certain to vote” and I’m comparing it to numbers that are “actually did vote this election was years ago.” The actual number stands to be higher than 26% this year.

Now that said obviously it’s not nearly enough and if young people would ever be engaged I don’t know why it wouldn’t be right now.

Couldn’t agree more. Especially after all of the Parkland Survivors that are telling us the young people will win. Not with those numbers.

by **steveschneider** 2018-10-04, 08:08

Research on the effective ways to reach the youth and millennial minority vote

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/podcasts/beyond-the-bubble/article219366050.html

by **steveschneider** 2018-10-04, 08:09

DWags wrote:Women of all ages will definitely make this election go one way or the other.

Yeah, I saw Steve Schmidt mention that women and minorities were going to deliver the blue wave in November. I sure hope so!

by **kingstonlake** 2018-10-04, 08:13

Has Alabama successfully outlawed blacks from voting yet?

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-10-04, 08:25

kingstonlake wrote:Has Alabama successfully outlawed blacks from voting yet?

they would never do such a thing!! How dare you!?!?!

(however, gerrymandering, purging rolls, closing precincts in certain areas, and Voter ID laws are merely encouraging Democracy).

by **DWags** 2018-10-04, 08:26

According to this, it really seems like those 8 toss ups are going to swing it. While I'd love to see Texas get rid of Cruz, I really doubt it happens. Honestly, looking at this, it seems the Republicans could pic up a seat.

Real Clear Politics. Just one of many polls

538 thinks we're 75% likely to see the dems in control of the house.

And just another poll, that was completely wrong in 2016

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2018-10-04, 08:31

DWags wrote:According to this, it really seems like those 8 toss ups are going to swing it. While I'd love to see Texas get rid of Cruz, I really doubt it happens. Honestly, looking at this, it seems the Republicans could pic up a seat.

Real Clear Politics. Just one of many polls

agree - I can't see Cruz losing Texas..

mainstream media (of course) reporting a "Kavanaugh bounce" for Republicans - they want to promote the "blue wave" narrative, to encourage complacency among Democrats, but make sure Republicans don't get so discouraged by this narrative that they stay home.

I suspect there will be some more carefully crafted storylines emerge in the next 30 days or so... probably along the lines of race-baiting, etc.

by **Dr. Strangelove** 2018-10-05, 04:19

steveschneider wrote:
DWags wrote:Women of all ages will definitely make this election go one way or the other.

Yeah, I saw Steve Schmidt mention that women and minorities were going to deliver the blue wave in November. I sure hope so!

You shouldn't tell anyone you watch Steve Schmidt. That's just embarrassing

by **steveschneider** 2018-10-05, 08:11

Dr. Strangelove wrote:
steveschneider wrote:

Yeah, I saw Steve Schmidt mention that women and minorities were going to deliver the blue wave in November. I sure hope so!

You shouldn't tell anyone you watch Steve Schmidt. That's just embarrassing

Funny just the other day someone tried to shame me for watching Bill Maher. Sorry I’m not going to live in a bubble, I’m going to seek out diverse opinions and always be a critical thinker.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2018-10-05, 08:18

steveschneider wrote:
Dr. Strangelove wrote:

You shouldn't tell anyone you watch Steve Schmidt. That's just embarrassing

Funny just the other day someone tried to shame me for watching Bill Maher. Sorry I’m not going to live in a bubble, I’m going to seek out diverse opinions and always be a critical thinker.

Steve Schmidt meh whatever who cares. Strangelove probably doesn’t like him because he used to be a Republican and now is vocally anti trump

Bill Maher though. Dude you should be ashamed of that. A) it’s not 1992. B) he’s not funny c) he’s a piece of shit. Fuck bill maher. That’s not “getting a diversity of opinions.” That’s watching a washed up has been trash pile of garbage.

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** 2018-10-05, 09:54

Young people do not believe in your system.

by **Heat Miser** 2018-10-05, 09:57

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Young people do not believe in your system.

Which is exactly what "the system" wants. Apathetic people are more easily bent over.

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** 2018-10-05, 09:58

Heat Miser wrote:
Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:Young people do not believe in your system.

Which is exactly what "the system" wants. Apathetic people are more easily bent over.

Well, it’s working.

by **steveschneider** 2018-10-05, 09:59

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
steveschneider wrote:

Funny just the other day someone tried to shame me for watching Bill Maher. Sorry I’m not going to live in a bubble, I’m going to seek out diverse opinions and always be a critical thinker.

Steve Schmidt meh whatever who cares. Strangelove probably doesn’t like him because he used to be a Republican and now is vocally anti trump

Bill Maher though. Dude you should be ashamed of that. A) it’s not 1992. B) he’s not funny c) he’s a piece of shit. Fuck bill maher. That’s not “getting a diversity of opinions.” That’s watching a washed up has been trash pile of garbage.

I get it he's not your cup of tea but he still has the best panel discussion and interviews on tv.

by Sponsored content