Bump when these numbers move

Here's an investment strategy that has consistently outperformed during the 2020s: Bet that the US economy is going to run hotter than either the stock market or the bond market expects.

Why it matters: That strategy is the exact opposite of the way traders made money in the 2010s, which was to bet that the recovery from the 2008-09 global financial crisis would be slower and feebler than the market was hoping.

By the numbers: In the 14 quarters since the brief 2020 recession ended, U.S. GDP has soared by $8 trillion, or 40%.

Trapper Gus wrote:Job numbers today lower than expected & and UE bumps up to 3.9%.

Expect MSM to tell us Biden is doomed.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-unemployment-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-07a321981752503e5299882805ed36c9

Bump

Trapper Gus wrote:Job numbers today lower than expected & and UE bumps up to 3.9%.

Expect MSM to tell us Biden is doomed.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-unemployment-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-07a321981752503e5299882805ed36c9

Bump

TravelinMan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:Job numbers today lower than expected & and UE bumps up to 3.9%.

Expect MSM to tell us Biden is doomed.

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-unemployment-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-07a321981752503e5299882805ed36c9

Bump

The term "Bidenomics" will be weaponized against him. Dumb dumb dumb.

TravelinMan wrote:Unemployment is up.

That means the economy is slowing down.

Because of all of that bad news, the Fed might lower rates.

In anticipation of that, the market is going wild this morning.

There are times when I guess I can't entirely fault the average American for not understanding the stock market.

AvgMSUJoe wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:Unemployment is up.

That means the economy is slowing down.

Because of all of that bad news, the Fed might lower rates.

In anticipation of that, the market is going wild this morning.

There are times when I guess I can't entirely fault the average American for not understanding the stock market.

Pretty sure the average 'merican isn't the force affecting the stock market.

top 10% income own 93% of the market

TravelinMan wrote:Unemployment is up.

That means the economy is slowing down.

Because of all of that bad news, the Fed might lower rates.

In anticipation of that, the market is going wild this morning.

There are times when I guess I can't entirely fault the average American for not understanding the stock market.

Trapper Gus wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:Unemployment is up.

That means the economy is slowing down.

Because of all of that bad news, the Fed might lower rates.

In anticipation of that, the market is going wild this morning.

There are times when I guess I can't entirely fault the average American for not understanding the stock market.

Interpretation of the UE number is murkyer than that, was it because more people joined the work for force?

Really need to dig through these numbers to say anything of sense,TM


https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

TravelinMan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Interpretation of the UE number is murkyer than that, was it because more people joined the work for force?

Really need to dig through these numbers to say anything of sense,TM


https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The article I read laid it out exactly as I described. Pre-market jumped bigly because the market really wants the Fed to lower rates. Fed won't lower rates at the moment because they believe the economy is still a bit overheated. Rising UE and fewer new jobs might be a sign the economy is cooling.

Didn't really have anything to do with Bidenomics, Trump, or the election in any way. (Unless, of course, you're a true believer Libertarian and want to abolish the Fed altogether! /s)

Trapper Gus wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:

The article I read laid it out exactly as I described. Pre-market jumped bigly because the market really wants the Fed to lower rates. Fed won't lower rates at the moment because they believe the economy is still a bit overheated. Rising UE and fewer new jobs might be a sign the economy is cooling.

Didn't really have anything to do with Bidenomics, Trump, or the election in any way. (Unless, of course, you're a true believer Libertarian and want to abolish the Fed altogether! /s)

I hate to believe that the Fed is making choices on monthly transients. My belief is that they know what they want to do, they just want the news to match their plan.

AvgMSUJoe wrote:

top 10% income own 93% of the market

TravelinMan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

I hate to believe that the Fed is making choices on monthly transients.  My belief is that they know what they want to do, they just want the news to match their plan.

Your faith in the Fed is far greater than mine.

Trapper Gus wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:

Your faith in the Fed is far greater than mine.

Pretty sure I expressed no faith in anything in my post but most people are too dumb to actual read what others post and comment intelligently.

Trapper Gus wrote:The economy has been booming during the Biden administration, so there is that.  Sure prices are up, however they would be higher still if Biden hadn't taken some actions to bring supply chains back in line with economic throughput.

Considering that two of the major oil producing regions on the globe are involved in shooting wars and that Reagan et al set up the US corporations to have much much power to price gouge inflation has become relatively under control after raging for 18 months.

The stock markets, the main topic of this thread, had a good couple of days at the end of this week.

kingstonlake wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:The economy has been booming during the Biden administration, so there is that.  Sure prices are up, however they would be higher still if Biden hadn't taken some actions to bring supply chains back in line with economic throughput.

Considering that two of the major oil producing regions on the globe are involved in shooting wars and that Reagan et al set up the US corporations to have much much power to price gouge inflation has become relatively under control after raging for 18 months.

The stock markets, the main topic of this thread, had a good couple of days at the end of this week.

I wonder why nothing has been done to change that in 40 years?  Couldn’t be that one side knows there are people out there who are shills for lip service….. and that one side really doesn’t give a shit about changing what Reagan did.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Pretty sure I expressed no faith in anything in my post but most people are too dumb to actual read what others post and comment intelligently.

Trapper Gus wrote:

The belief in Kaynesian economics has been fought, politically & academically since he first proposed it, and starting in 1948, when the laws regarding unionization were weakened over President Truman's veto, the battle against a strong middle class focused economy has been lost struggle by struggle.

The Democratics became convinced by Reagan's political success that the only way they could win elections was by embracing neo-liberal ideas including the ideas of having as much of the economy as possible run by private companies. There is still a major part of the population who believe Reagan's lie about everything the government does is not just bad but evil.

So yes, for a long time both parties were handing all control of the economy to the wealthy, with huge tax cuts for capital formation, partly because those were the policy positions which won elections.

It has only been since the 2008 crash that some of the population has woke to discover that over the last 60 years the policies they were voting for turned out to be not good for their well being. Trump rode that anger to the White House in 2016, and then promptly dumped what he promised to do, or didn't know how, and cut taxes for the wrong economic class again, just like every Republican since Reagan. He is trying to ride the same anger, plus anger at some other things, back to the White House in 2024.

Joe Biden's administration is the first administration since FDR's to embrace what is called "the demand side" of the economy as the central part of the economy to feed in order to build a strong economy, with spectacular success.

Unfortunately, unless people are very wonky in how they follow what the government has been doing they are unaware of this. Also, sadly, the corporations price gouged which caused most of the inflation, and, as Bob tells us, people are stupid, and thus blame the current President for all the sins of past Presidents.

I'm sure it is frustrating to Biden to have done everything he could do right and yet to be blamed for Reagan et al's economic policy mistakes.

Zurn wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Pretty sure I expressed no faith in anything in my post but most people are too dumb to actual read what others post and comment intelligently.

Is it really "dumb" to sign in here and find 25 more Trapper Gus posts and decide your life would be better not to read most of  them?  

Zurn wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

The belief in Kaynesian economics has been fought, politically & academically since he first proposed it, and starting in 1948, when the laws regarding unionization were weakened over President Truman's veto, the battle against a strong middle class focused economy has been lost struggle by struggle.

The Democratics became convinced by Reagan's political success that the only way they could win elections was by embracing neo-liberal ideas including the ideas of having as much of the economy as possible run by private companies. There is still a major part of the population who believe Reagan's lie about everything the government does is not just bad but evil.

So yes, for a long time both parties were handing all control of the economy to the wealthy, with huge tax cuts for capital formation, partly because those were the policy positions which won elections.

It has only been since the 2008 crash that some of the population has woke to discover that over the last 60 years the policies they were voting for turned out to be not good for their well being. Trump rode that anger to the White House in 2016, and then promptly dumped what he promised to do, or didn't know how, and cut taxes for the wrong economic class again, just like every Republican since Reagan. He is trying to ride the same anger, plus anger at some other things, back to the White House in 2024.

Joe Biden's administration is the first administration since FDR's to embrace what is called "the demand side" of the economy as the central part of the economy to feed in order to build a strong economy, with spectacular success.

Unfortunately, unless people are very wonky in how they follow what the government has been doing they are unaware of this. Also, sadly, the corporations price gouged which caused most of the inflation, and, as Bob tells us, people are stupid, and thus blame the current President for all the sins of past Presidents.

I'm sure it is frustrating to Biden to have done everything he could do right and yet to be blamed for Reagan et al's economic policy mistakes.

In fact, I think it was smart not to read this.

GRR Spartan wrote:

Most Americans can’t grasp the fact their wage increases have outpaced inflation

Zurn wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:

Most Americans can’t grasp the fact their wage increases have outpaced inflation

This is simply not true. Since Biden took office prices have outpaced wage increases.

But feel free to continue your profane and angry old man ranting.

GRR Spartan wrote:“Zurn” aka RQA the troll assigned to The Swill always is looking out for the wealthiest 10%.

Zurn wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:“Zurn” aka RQA the troll assigned to The Swill always is looking out for the wealthiest 10%.

They pay 76% of all the income taxes and so somebody needs to be looking out for them.

The rich generally pay more of their incomes in taxes than the rest of us.
The top fifth of households got 54% of all income and paid 69% of federal taxes;
the top 1% got 16% of the income and paid 25% of all federal  taxes, according to the CBO.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Zurn wrote:

They pay 76% of all the income taxes and so somebody needs to be looking out for them.

Before you should believe the numbers created for you by wealthy people you better know all the details.

I am finding various numbers from different sources for the number you are posting.

The rich generally pay more of their incomes in taxes than the rest of us.
The top fifth of households got 54% of all income and paid 69% of federal taxes;
the top 1% got 16% of the income and paid 25% of all federal  taxes, according to the CBO.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-are-the-rich-and-how-might-we-tax-them-more/

You say the top 10% pays 70% of taxes.

The CBO says the top 20% pays 69% of taxes.

Those two statements contradict each other, so if you want to be rational you must know how they are calculated.

BTW I don't have any idea what these matters to you.  Wealthy people are the ones who must pay for the country with established the systems that facilitate their incomes.

https://www.brookings.edu/

https://www.cbpp.org/

https://taxfoundation.org/

https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-top-400-individual-income-tax-returns-with-the-largest-adjusted-gross-incomes

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Before you should believe the numbers created for you by wealthy people you better know all the details.

I am finding various numbers from different sources for the number you are posting.



https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-are-the-rich-and-how-might-we-tax-them-more/

You say the top 10% pays 70% of taxes.

The CBO says the top 20% pays 69% of taxes.

Those two statements contradict each other, so if you want to be rational you must know how they are calculated.

BTW I don't have any idea what these matters to you.  Wealthy people are the ones who must pay for the country with established the systems that facilitate their incomes.

https://www.brookings.edu/

https://www.cbpp.org/

https://taxfoundation.org/

https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-top-400-individual-income-tax-returns-with-the-largest-adjusted-gross-incomes

you're not trying to present facts to someone who doesn't accept jury verdicts, the courts, the US Judicial System and the Constitution, simply because his christian rapist hero convinced him not to, are ya?

Zurn wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:“Zurn” aka RQA the troll assigned to The Swill always is looking out for the wealthiest 10%.

They pay 76% of all the income taxes and so somebody needs to be looking out for them.

Republicans have handed America’s wealth to the billionaires: where’s the outrage? Economist Gabriel Zucman published an extraordinary op-ed in The New York Times this week showing the impact of 40 years of Republicans transferring over $50 trillion from the pockets of the middle class into the money bins of the morbidly rich via changes in tax policy. Not only has this led to a $34.5 trillion national debt — 100% of which can be accounted for by massive tax cuts on the wealthy and corporations put into place by Ronald Reagan (1981), George W. Bush (2003), and Donald Trump (2017) — but it’s also gutted the middle class, reducing the percentage of Americans who can live comfortably in that realm from almost two-thirds of us in 1980 to around 43% of us today.

Trapper Gus wrote:

I am finding various numbers from different sources for the number you are posting ...




BTW I don't have any idea what these matters to you.

Zurn wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

I am finding various numbers from different sources for the number  you are posting ...




BTW I don't have any idea what these matters to you.

Of course there are varying numbers for what percentage of taxes the top 10% in income pay.  Depends on the year analyzed, what is considered to be taxes (just income tax or social security, etc) and whether tax credits for lower income people are included in the analysis.   But the principle remains true no matter the exact number.   And that is that the upper 10% in income pay the majority of income taxes.

Why does in matter to me.   As an American interested in the well being of my country, tax policy should be towards the top of things that matter to me.   And keep in mind to be in the top 10% you only have to have an income of about $170k.  

Trapper Gus wrote:

because a market based wage system in inherently unable to pay for the value of a human being's subsistence,

Zurn wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

because a market based wage system in inherently unable to pay for the value of a human being's subsistence,

Oh, I forgot you think the guy who mows Tom Izzo's lawn should be paid the same as Tom Izzo.