Question for the trolls: honest answers. Tanner -Vlad -Herb -Blanch ** And Breaking I got another

NigelUno wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Yep. The oddsmakers were giving a 13% chance at that point in the season that an undefeated MSU could miss the playoffs. Betting $100 on a 13% chance of winning $10,000?? Fuck yeah dude!!

What were the odds a 1 loss Big Ten Champ was going to make it?

How much did the policy cost you anyway? Be honest, your mom yelled at you when she found out about the bet, didn't she?

Vlad wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

What were the odds a 1 loss Big Ten Champ was going to make it?

How much did the policy cost you anyway? Be honest, your mom yelled at you when she found out about the bet, didn't she?

The only thing dumber than you making that sucker bet, was you thinking I took out an insurance policy.

Well...the 1000/1 odds thing might have been dumber...

Vlad wrote:

Turtleneck wrote:

I like kipper but they are not germane. What is at question is you wagering that an undefeated Big 10 champ was not going to make the playoff. Did that really happen?

Yep. The oddsmakers were giving a 13% chance at that point in the season that an undefeated MSU could miss the playoffs. Betting $100 on a 13% chance of winning $10,000?? Fuck yeah dude!!

Now if Nigie Pooh had asked me to put some real skin in the game, I may not have done it. But 100 bucks? Fuck yeah!

What was "that point in the season?" How many games had been played?

Turtleneck wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Yep. The oddsmakers were giving a 13% chance at that point in the season that an undefeated MSU could miss the playoffs. Betting $100 on a 13% chance of winning $10,000?? Fuck yeah dude!!

Now if Nigie Pooh had asked me to put some real skin in the game, I may not have done it. But 100 bucks? Fuck yeah!

What was "that point in the season?" How many games had been played?

Right before Nebraska I think.

Turtleneck wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Yep. The oddsmakers were giving a 13% chance at that point in the season that an undefeated MSU could miss the playoffs. Betting $100 on a 13% chance of winning $10,000?? Fuck yeah dude!!

Now if Nigie Pooh had asked me to put some real skin in the game, I may not have done it. But 100 bucks? Fuck yeah!

What was "that point in the season?" How many games had been played?

Does it matter? He thought he got 1000/1 odds.

NigelUno wrote:

Vlad wrote:

How much did the policy cost you anyway? Be honest, your mom yelled at you when she found out about the bet, didn't she?

The only thing dumber than you making that sucker bet, was you thinking I took out an insurance policy.

Well...the 1000/1 odds thing might have been dumber...

You posted about it Nigel. Are you a liar? Tell me you're not a liar Nigel.

DWags wrote:What's not very fair here is I've asked those guys a question and haven't got an answer but when somebody asks if the program recovers we all answer.

I don't feel very loved here.

I hate it when the Spartans lose. I really hate it when we go on a historical bad losing streak.

I actually post less when the Spartans lose because I often avoid all such media all together.

Do you yourself like it when the Spartans lose so you can start these troll posts?

NigelUno wrote:

Turtleneck wrote:

What was "that point in the season?" How many games had been played?

Does it matter? He thought he got 1000/1 odds.

No I said you will give 1000/1 odds. Because that's just how generous you are. Plus you've got a good underwriter willing to cover your losses...for a small fee.

Vlad wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

The only thing dumber than you making that sucker bet, was you thinking I took out an insurance policy.

Well...the 1000/1 odds thing might have been dumber...

You posted about it Nigel. Are you a liar? Tell me you're not a liar Nigel.

You posted you got 1000/1 odds. Are you a liar? Or just stupid?

NigelUno wrote:

Vlad wrote:

How much did the policy cost you anyway? Be honest, your mom yelled at you when she found out about the bet, didn't she?

The only thing dumber than you making that sucker bet, was you thinking I took out an insurance policy.

Well...the 1000/1 odds thing might have been dumber...

Who the fuck insures bets?

I was thinking companies that cover hole in ones at golf outing where they give away a car if you make it. But a ten grand bet on that I was thinking would be hard to get and would cost.

DWags wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

The only thing dumber than you making that sucker bet, was you thinking I took out an insurance policy.

Well...the 1000/1 odds thing might have been dumber...

Who the fuck insures bets?

I was thinking companies that cover hole in ones at golf outing where they give away a car if you make it. But a ten grand bet on that I was thinking would be hard to get and would cost.

A better question is who the fuck would make a bet like that and think an undefeated Big Ten Champ wasn't going to make the playoff? It would have to big a really big dumb ass.



And then...a 1 loss Big Ten Champ made it...

DWags wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

The only thing dumber than you making that sucker bet, was you thinking I took out an insurance policy.

Well...the 1000/1 odds thing might have been dumber...

Who the fuck insures bets?

I was thinking companies that cover hole in ones at golf outing where they give away a car if you make it. But a ten grand bet on that I was thinking would be hard to get and would cost.

You'll have to ask your fanboy Nigel. I don't make bets that I can't cover.

Heck I even donate $100 on bets that are null and void. Because you know, that's just the kind of guy I am.

Vlad wrote:

DWags wrote:

Who the fuck insures bets?

I was thinking companies that cover hole in ones at golf outing where they give away a car if you make it. But a ten grand bet on that I was thinking would be hard to get and would cost.

You'll have to ask your fanboy Nigel. I don't make bets that I can't cover.

It was such a dumb ass sucker bet that you paid off when MSU went to the playoff as a 1 loss team.



We can make the bet again. Let me know.

Vlad evicerated Nigel. Lol

Got another one DWags.

Vlad wrote:

Turtleneck wrote:

I like kipper but they are not germane. What is at question is you wagering that an undefeated Big 10 champ was not going to make the playoff. Did that really happen?

Yep. The oddsmakers were giving a 13% chance at that point in the season that an undefeated MSU could miss the playoffs. Betting $100 on a 13% chance of winning $10,000?? Fuck yeah dude!!

Now if Nigie Pooh had asked me to put some real skin in the game, I may not have done it. But 100 bucks? Fuck yeah!

It is pointless. These guys don't understand basic math.

I don't know how a college educated person could not understand that paying 100/1 on a bet they have a 13% chance of losing is a bad position. I mean I have a degree in math but this isn't really a difficult concept is it?

Herbie Green wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Yep. The oddsmakers were giving a 13% chance at that point in the season that an undefeated MSU could miss the playoffs. Betting $100 on a 13% chance of winning $10,000?? Fuck yeah dude!!

Now if Nigie Pooh had asked me to put some real skin in the game, I may not have done it. But 100 bucks? Fuck yeah!

It is pointless. These guys don't understand basic math.

I don't know how a college educated person could not understand that paying 100/1 on a bet they have a 13% chance of losing is a bad position. I mean I have a degree in math but this isn't really a difficult concept is it?

What makes it worse is that they actually think they were smart for offering such terms. The Vegas strip is a growing monument to these brainiacs. Apparently it's really hard to figure out that he could win the bet 99 times out of 100 and still come out behind.

Anyway, I just accepted Nigel's offer to enter into another bat. If he felt good about the terms he gave last year, I'm sure he'll be more than willing to do it again this year. Give me a 12–15% chance of winning and then give me the same terms.

I'd like to make a bet that the sun comes up tomorrow. It's about as likely not to as an undefeated msu who would have beat two top five schools in the final weeks and thre during the season would not have made the tournament.

Wow.

NigelUno wrote:Got another one DWags.

He was earlier. Easy. I'm surprised Blanch made the best showing. In a country full of blind men I guess the one eyed jackass who slams pigs is king.

DWags wrote:I'd like to make a bet that the sun comes up tomorrow. It's about as likely not to as an undefeated msu who would have beat two top five schools in the final weeks and thre during the season would not have made the tournament.

Wow.

You should've written to Nate Silver. That kid is a fool for putting a 13% chance on that scenario playing out.

Vlad wrote:

gHost Spartan wrote:This could be the best thread in Swill history.

Agree.

Dwags thought he wasn't gonna do this again this season, and I told him he was kidding himself. We're doing it!

I don't know what we're doing again. All I know is I quit sports forever. Thanks D'Antoni.

As I recall last season Iowa was undefeated and sitting at #4 with a one loss ND team about to play Stanford lurking right behind.
I wouldn't want to play this same game out for 100 years until the year 2115 with confidence that it would happen zero times

Vlad wrote:

DWags wrote:I'd like to make a bet that the sun comes up tomorrow. It's about as likely not to as an undefeated msu who would have beat two top five schools in the final weeks and thre during the season would not have made the tournament.

Wow.

You should've written to Nate Silver. That kid is a fool for putting a 13% chance on that scenario playing out.

Did silver say that an undefeated big ten team wouldn't get in or had a 13% chance of getting in? Or did he say msu had a 13% chance of getting. Because that's a huge difference.

Nobody thought we were beating osu. Was silver factoring that in? If Silver knew msu would beat osu would he have given us a 13% chance of getting in?

I really can't remember because when it was brought up an undefeated msu (big ten team) wouldn't get in was laughable.

Now if you said msu only had a 13% chance of going undefeated and then making the playoffs I'd say ok, that's right.

What was the 13% he was talking about.

DWags wrote:

Vlad wrote:

You should've written to Nate Silver. That kid is a fool for putting a 13% chance on that scenario playing out.

Did silver say that an undefeated big ten team wouldn't get in or had a 13% chance of getting in? Or did he say msu had a 13% chance of getting. Because that's a huge difference.

Nobody thought we were beating osu. Was silver factoring that in? If Silver knew msu would beat osu would he have given us a 13% chance of getting in?

I really can't remember because when it was brought up an undefeated msu (big ten team) wouldn't get in was laughable.

Now if you said msu only had a 13% chance of going undefeated and then making the playoffs I'd say ok, that's right.

What was the 13% he was talking about.

Bump. Anybody?

DWags wrote:

Vlad wrote:

You should've written to Nate Silver. That kid is a fool for putting a 13% chance on that scenario playing out.

Did silver say that an undefeated big ten team wouldn't get in or had a 13% chance of getting in? Or did he say msu had a 13% chance of getting. Because that's a huge difference.

Nobody thought we were beating osu. Was silver factoring that in? If Silver knew msu would beat osu would he have given us a 13% chance of getting in?

I really can't remember because when it was brought up an undefeated msu (big ten team) wouldn't get in was laughable.

Now if you said msu only had a 13% chance of going undefeated and then making the playoffs I'd say ok, that's right.

What was the 13% he was talking about.

I think it was a 13% chance MSU would go undefeated and not make the playoffs

Oh blow it out your ass, Herbie, you dumb shit.

MSU had a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time, just before the Nebraska game. The website did not state whether they would go undefeated or not. It was a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs, and I assume certain assumptions regarding each remaining game were baked into that 13% number. But we have no way of knowing what those assumptions were.

Vlad wrote: MSU had a 13% chance at that time, just before the Nebraska game. It did not state whether they would go undefeated or not. It was a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs, and I assume certain assumptions regarding each remaining game were baked into that 13% number. But we have no way of knowing what those assumptions were.

That may be true but had nothing to do with the bet. He had a number for them going undefeated and missing the playoff that was in that ballpark

[quote="Herbie Green"]

Vlad wrote: MSU had a 13% chance at that time, just before the Nebraska game. It did not state whether they would go undefeated or not. It was a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs, and I assume certain assumptions regarding each remaining game were baked into that 13% number. But we have no way of knowing what those assumptions were.

13% chance of getting into playoffs, period.

Vlad wrote: MSU had a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time, just before the Nebraska game. The website did not state whether they would go undefeated or not related to that13%. It was a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs, and I assume certain assumptions regarding each remaining game were baked into that 13% number. But we have no way of knowing what those assumptions were.

Well that makes a big difference doesn't it? Msu had osu in front of them. Silver had to calculate that in.

My god nobody could be so fucking stupid as to think an undefeated msu team wouldn't make the playoffs AFTER they beat osu. Had silver equated msu beating osu and you asking him if an undefeated msu makes it and you still believe he's saying 13% you're wasting time here. It's foolish

DWags wrote:

Vlad wrote: MSU had a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time, just before the Nebraska game. The website did not state whether they would go undefeated or not related to that13%. It was a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs, and I assume certain assumptions regarding each remaining game were baked into that 13% number. But we have no way of knowing what those assumptions were.

Well that makes a big difference doesn't it? Msu had osu in front of them. Silver had to calculate that in.

My god nobody could be so fucking stupid as to think an undefeated msu team wouldn't make the playoffs AFTER they beat osu. Had silver equated msu beating osu and you asking him if an undefeated msu makes it and you still believe he's saying 13% you're wasting time here. It's foolish

Sounds like you're arguing against yourself (which I agree is fucking stupid.) All I'm saying is he gave us a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time.

Herbie Green wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Yep. The oddsmakers were giving a 13% chance at that point in the season that an undefeated MSU could miss the playoffs. Betting $100 on a 13% chance of winning $10,000?? Fuck yeah dude!!

Now if Nigie Pooh had asked me to put some real skin in the game, I may not have done it. But 100 bucks? Fuck yeah!

It is pointless. These guys don't understand basic math.

I don't know how a college educated person could not understand that paying 100/1 on a bet they have a 13% chance of losing is a bad position. I mean I have a degree in math but this isn't really a difficult concept is it?

I don't know how a college educated person would claim that a 100/1 bet was a 1000/1 bet. Does your math degree help you with that?

I'm waiting for a new bet Nigel. Same terms.

Vlad wrote:

DWags wrote:

Well that makes a big difference doesn't it? Msu had osu in front of them. Silver had to calculate that in.

My god nobody could be so fucking stupid as to think an undefeated msu team wouldn't make the playoffs AFTER they beat osu. Had silver equated msu beating osu and you asking him if an undefeated msu makes it and you still believe he's saying 13% you're wasting time here. It's foolish

Sounds like you're arguing against yourself (which I agree is fucking stupid.) All I'm saying is he gave us a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time.

That's right. That is all you can say. Because I guarantee you he was giving msu a 13% shot because we still had to play at osu. Not that an undefeated msu team at 13-0 only had a 13% shot at making.

Holy shit.

I thought the silver stats were saying a 13-0 big ten champ. MSU only had a 13% chance at being selected. That's no so at all.

Vlad wrote: MSU had a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time, just before the Nebraska game. The website did not state whether they would go undefeated or not. It was a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs, and I assume certain assumptions regarding each remaining game were baked into that 13% number. But we have no way of knowing what those assumptions were.

Holy Shit. And that 13% is what you took the bet on? And what you're claiming makes you look smart now?

Wow.

Just fucking wow.

You're a bigger dumb ass than I thought.

Herbie? You want to chime in here with any of your math thoughts?

DWags wrote:

Vlad wrote:

Sounds like you're arguing against yourself (which I agree is fucking stupid.) All I'm saying is he gave us a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time.

That's right. That is all you can say. Because I guarantee you he was giving msu a 13% shot because we still had to play at osu. Not that an undefeated msu team at 13-0 only had a 13% shot at making.

Holy shit.

And?? Have I said otherwise? You're still arguing against yourself.

DWags wrote:

Vlad wrote: MSU had a 13% chance of making the playoffs at that time, just before the Nebraska game. The website did not state whether they would go undefeated or not related to that13%. It was a 13% chance of getting into the playoffs, and I assume certain assumptions regarding each remaining game were baked into that 13% number. But we have no way of knowing what those assumptions were.

Well that makes a big difference doesn't it? Msu had osu in front of them. Silver had to calculate that in.

My god nobody could be so fucking stupid as to think an undefeated msu team wouldn't make the playoffs AFTER they beat osu. Had silver equated msu beating osu and you asking him if an undefeated msu makes it and you still believe he's saying 13% you're wasting time here. It's foolish

Vlad just admitted how much of a dumb fuck he is.

I'm waiting Nigel.

Vlad wrote:I'm waiting for a new bet Nigel. Same terms.

I think you're twisting Silvers terms Vlad.

NigelUno wrote:

DWags wrote:

Well that makes a big difference doesn't it? Msu had osu in front of them. Silver had to calculate that in.

My god nobody could be so fucking stupid as to think an undefeated msu team wouldn't make the playoffs AFTER they beat osu. Had silver equated msu beating osu and you asking him if an undefeated msu makes it and you still believe he's saying 13% you're wasting time here. It's foolish

Vlad just admitted how much of a dumb fuck he is.

My god I didn't realize that till now. What a fucking dumb ass. He didn't equates Silvers thoughts of us at osu. We were saying undefeated msu which implied a victory at osu.