Re: The 2020 Presidential campaign.

by **MiamiSpartan** Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:51 pm

My optimism has waned.

As I had said in recent days, if this is at all close, it shows that people in this country really don't give a fuck and we deserve whatever we get. It is close, and Trump may well comfortably win this outright without any courts or anything.

Then again, maybe I'm getting sucked in to forgetting about the mail in votes that will be counted in later days. But it has been disappointing with states that HAVE counted mail in votes, like Florida, so my confidence is a bit rattled.

by **Rocinante** Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:53 pm

I feel like we’ve had this discussion. This is election month not Election Day. May as well drink, unplug and wait.

But you’re right. We get what we deserve.

by **steveschneider** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:05 pm

I’m fading. This is going to take a while.

by **InTenSity** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:20 pm

I'm calling a realtor and looking for countries to move to. Fuck this. I'm also no longer talking to my family.

by **steveschneider** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:23 pm

I think this is probably going to be a lot like 2018 it’s going to take a few days. We are all just torturing ourselves watching this.

by **MiamiSpartan** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:37 pm

Yeah, I guess I've been saying that Florida is irrelevant (or at least not necessary for Biden), but would have been so nice to have Trump's hopes dashed early on. I was also really hoping that Biden would have a path open that wasn't WI/MI/PA, especially with each of those probably taking days longer to count, in the hopes that we could at least avoid the chaos that will result.

by **Nordic** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:41 pm

Based on CNN mapping, I think Biden gets Az and Pa (mail in gonna be late in Philly). Trump keeps Wis. And it comes down to Michigan. Michigan hard to peg the late vote impact.

by **Nordic** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:51 pm

It really looks like it is going to come down to Detroit and Philly. Trump is leading in both States. But only a small percentage of early votes have been counted.

by **The Pantry** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:52 pm

InTenSity wrote:I'm calling a realtor and looking for countries to move to. Fuck this. I'm also no longer talking to my family.

Good luck, dude.

FTR...you're nearing the top of my top five craziest libs on this board. Do you seriously plan on cutting off vehicles on the road that display support of Trump? Settle down.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:56 pm

Mostly good luck intensity because we’re not allowed to leave this country because we’re disgusting disease ridden filth. Your options are limited.

by **Turtleneck** Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:57 pm

MiamiSpartan wrote:My optimism has waned.

As I had said in recent days, if this is at all close, it shows that people in this country really don't give a fuck and we deserve whatever we get. It is close, and Trump may well comfortably win this outright without any courts or anything.

Then again, maybe I'm getting sucked in to forgetting about the mail in votes that will be counted in later days. But it has been disappointing with states that HAVE counted mail in votes, like Florida, so my confidence is a bit rattled.

Turtleneck wrote:

None of this is all that great because it's a pretty mild rebuke of Trumpism. The only way this is enjoyable is if the country, in massive numbers, repudiates Trump and the current direction of the Republican party. Anything short of that and it's all still a mess...and the socialists are still coming for DWags' shoes.

by **Cameron** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:00 pm

Regardless of how this turns out, I think it's pretty clear that the Dems should have picked a better candidate. I blame steve.

by **InTenSity** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:02 pm

The Pantry wrote:
InTenSity wrote:I'm calling a realtor and looking for countries to move to. Fuck this. I'm also no longer talking to my family.
Good luck, dude.

FTR...you're nearing the top of my top five craziest libs on this board. Do you seriously plan on cutting off vehicles on the road that display support of Trump? Settle down.

Go Fuck yourself. Yes.

by **Nordic** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:05 pm

Biden odds shifted back to +250, was a high as +450. Az pretty much in the books IMO. Only question marks are Mi, Pa and Wi. i.e. Detroit and Philly.

by **The Pantry** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:06 pm

InTenSity wrote:
The Pantry wrote:Good luck, dude.

FTR...you're nearing the top of my top five craziest libs on this board. Do you seriously plan on cutting off vehicles on the road that display support of Trump? Settle down.
Go Fuck yourself. Yes.

Your choice. Sounds like another piece for the "Oh, Florida" thread

by **Turtleneck** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:08 pm

Nobody in the lineup was going to perform better. Not sure what part of the country you live in, but many white Americans live in perpetual fear of a less white America and think every democrat is a socialist (because they don't know what socialism is). Trump excels at motivating those people to vote. No Democrat was going to escape Trump's dog whistling and socialist labeling strategies, which as we see again, work to create a very tight election outcome.

by **kingstonlake** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:11 pm

But polls....

by **MiamiSpartan** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:11 pm

Nordic wrote:Biden odds shifted back to +250, was a high as +450. Az pretty much in the books IMO. Only question marks are Mi, Pa and Wi. i.e. Detroit and Philly.

There's a decent possibility that if Biden flips AZ, WI, and MI only, and the rest stays the same, that we will be at 269 to 269. The 2020 Presidential campaign. - Page 13 1550444538

The 2020 Presidential campaign. - Page 13 1550444538

by **kingstonlake** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 pm

Turtleneck wrote:Nobody in the lineup was going to perform better. Not sure what part of the country you live in, but many white Americans live in perpetual fear of a less white America and think every democrat is a socialist (because they don't know what socialism is). Trump excels at motivating those people to vote. No Democrat was going to escape Trump's dog whistling and socialist labeling strategies, which as we see again, work to create a very tight election outcome.

Pretty much this.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:15 pm

Just as an aside, not that it matters right now but you won’t get me off this soap box.....

It’s absolutely bonkers that we have no doubt who will get more votes in the election but we have no idea who will win. It’s a stupid stupid system and I don’t really care what made sense in 1787 because it does not make sense in 2020 the year of our lord and it hasn’t in quite some time now.

by **Cameron** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:17 pm

Turtleneck wrote:Nobody in the lineup was going to perform better. Not sure what part of the country you live in, but many white Americans live in perpetual fear of a less white America and think every democrat is a socialist (because they don't know what socialism is). Trump excels at motivating those people to vote. No Democrat was going to escape Trump's dog whistling and socialist labeling strategies, which as we see again, work to create a very tight election outcome.

Obviously, the efficacy of polling is questionable, but I'm fairly sure there were multiple candidates who polled better head to head against Trump than Biden.

by **Nordic** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:23 pm

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Just as an aside, not that it matters right now but you won’t get me off this soap box.....

It’s absolutely bonkers that we have no doubt who will get more votes in the election but we have no idea who will win. It’s a stupid stupid system and I don’t really care what made sense in 1787 because it does not make sense in 2020 the year of our lord and it hasn’t in quite some time now.

I'm not saying it isn't outdated and doesn't need to change. But if you switch to straight popular vote, only the vote in a handful or so big cities would matter. And all politicians would cater to them. It would be like the NFL switching to Canadian rules football. It wouldn't be the same game.

by **InTenSity** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:25 pm

The Pantry wrote:
InTenSity wrote:
Go Fuck yourself. Yes.
Your choice. Sounds like another piece for the "Oh, Florida" thread

You're in love with everything you claim to hate. But Fuck the libs, Amirite. No wonder your daughters don't talk to you. You support an evil disgusting regime. You for Republican cuz your alone, lonely and can't get laid. Fuck everyone else cuz your life sucks. Go order jets pizza.

by **kingstonlake** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:25 pm

Nordic wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Just as an aside, not that it matters right now but you won’t get me off this soap box.....

It’s absolutely bonkers that we have no doubt who will get more votes in the election but we have no idea who will win. It’s a stupid stupid system and I don’t really care what made sense in 1787 because it does not make sense in 2020 the year of our lord and it hasn’t in quite some time now.

I'm not saying it isn't outdated and doesn't need to change. But if you switch to straight popular vote, only the vote in a handful or so big cities would matter. And all politicians would cater to them. It would be like the NFL switching to Canadian rules football. It wouldn't be the same game.

Cities don't vote, people do.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:31 pm

Nordic wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Just as an aside, not that it matters right now but you won’t get me off this soap box.....

It’s absolutely bonkers that we have no doubt who will get more votes in the election but we have no idea who will win. It’s a stupid stupid system and I don’t really care what made sense in 1787 because it does not make sense in 2020 the year of our lord and it hasn’t in quite some time now.

I'm not saying it isn't outdated and doesn't need to change. But if you switch to straight popular vote, only the vote in a handful or so big cities would matter. And all politicians would cater to them. It would be like the NFL switching to Canadian rules football. It wouldn't be the same game.

That’s bullshit that you’ve been spoon fed to believe that this system isn’t completely fucked.

What matters now? WITH our college? A handful of states. No one cares about all of those bullshit states. 45 of em. They don’t matter. Take a look at where the candidates spent their ad dollars. Yeah, we complain about seeing so many, but that’s because we’re in swing states for the most part.

If you have a national popular vote, you know what would matter? A republican moving their loss margin from 35 points to 25 points in California. A Democrat only losing by 10 in Arkansas. These votes would matter again. They’d be worth reaching out to. Instead, now, they just don’t.

So what do you get? This doesn’t just impact the presidential election mind you.... you get that guy in Arkansas. He’s never, ever, heard from a democrat legitimately. He has heard from republicans. And they say that democrats eat babies. So he believes them. Then we all say “why are we all so polarized?” The electoral college plays no small role in the answer to that question and I’m only being a little bit facetious.

by **MiamiSpartan** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:35 pm

kingstonlake wrote:But polls....

RCP Polling averages had Trump leading TX, GA, NC, and OH, with him less than 1 percentage point behind in Florida (well within the margin of error). 538s averages are slightly more favorable to Biden, but still within the margin of error for those.

MI and WI had 4 and 6 point leads (larger in 538's averages). Trump is ahead in those now, but they will come down to mail in ballots. If Trump ends up winning those, then the polls were fucked. But so far there is nothing really that the polls have gotten horribly wrong.

Pennsylvania, FWIW, had only a 1.2 Biden advantage on RCP, but 4.6 Biden advantage on RCP. So that is a big discrepancy, and Pennsylvania looks like it will be crucial when mail in ballots are counted.

by **Nordic** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:38 pm

Pa going to be Florida 2000. Pa going to drag out for weeks.

Edit: Just baseless opinion, not based on anything specific

by **The Pantry** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:40 pm

InTenSity wrote:
The Pantry wrote:Your choice. Sounds like another piece for the "Oh, Florida" thread
You're in love with everything you claim to hate. But Fuck the libs, Amirite. No wonder your daughters don't talk to you. You support an evil disgusting regime. You for Republican cuz your alone, lonely and can't get laid. Fuck everyone else cuz your life sucks. Go order jets pizza.

Jeez, you seem angry.

Why does your family hate you?

by **Nordic** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:42 pm

Biden back to +160. Started at -160. Went all the way to +450.

by **InTenSity** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:54 pm

The Pantry wrote:
InTenSity wrote:
You're in love with everything you claim to hate. But Fuck the libs, Amirite. No wonder your daughters don't talk to you. You support an evil disgusting regime. You for Republican cuz your alone, lonely and can't get laid. Fuck everyone else cuz your life sucks. Go order jets pizza.
Jeez, you seem angry.

Why does your family hate you?

They don't. I'm cutting myself off from them. I'm taking my parents that they can no longer talk to my kids. None of my relatives can talk to them anymore. My kids have a mother who had to get her citizenship. I don't think their values are the same as ours anymore.

by **Turtleneck** Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:59 pm

Cameron wrote:
Turtleneck wrote:Nobody in the lineup was going to perform better. Not sure what part of the country you live in, but many white Americans live in perpetual fear of a less white America and think every democrat is a socialist (because they don't know what socialism is). Trump excels at motivating those people to vote. No Democrat was going to escape Trump's dog whistling and socialist labeling strategies, which as we see again, work to create a very tight election outcome.
Obviously, the efficacy of polling is questionable, but I'm fairly sure there were multiple candidates who polled better head to head against Trump than Biden.

Polling in late 2019 and early 2020 for hypothetical head-to-head match ups doesn't provide insight for potential electoral college outcomes in late 2020. But it does make for fun information to consume and discuss.

by **MiamiSpartan** Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:10 am

Nordic wrote:Pa going to be Florida 2000. Pa going to drag out for weeks.

Edit: Just baseless opinion, not based on anything specific

I think some media are giving this 1 electoral vote district in Nebraska to Biden. Fox supposedly has given AZ to Biden. NV probably goes to Biden. So if MI and WI go Biden, that's 270 on the nose, if the rest of 2016 states stay the same.

Virginia gives us a good example of how a major Dem population center that is not reporting most of their numbers, can instantly flip a result once they do report. Keep that in mind with some of the low reporting numbers (as well as mail in) in Detroit and Philly.

by **The Pantry** Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:11 am

InTenSity wrote:
The Pantry wrote:Jeez, you seem angry.

Why does your family hate you?
They don't. I'm cutting myself off from them. I'm taking my parents that they can no longer talk to my kids. None of my relatives can talk to them anymore. My kids have a mother who had to get her citizenship. I don't think their values are the same as ours anymore.

Thanks for clarifying you hate them. Regardless of the entire family situation, you're a lefty nutter. Unless there's something you haven't expressed here, you should apologize to your parents and the rest of your relatives.

Please don't intentionally cause any traffic accidents tomorrow.

by MattyFresh Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:17 am

Settle down folks, we got a red mirage going on in front of the blue wall. Bunch of dumb fucks in the PA house trying to steal an election. By Friday we will be poppin bottles

by **Nordic** Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:27 am

Nordic wrote:Biden odds shifted back to +250, was a high as +450. Az pretty much in the books IMO. Only question marks are Mi, Pa and Wi. i.e. Detroit and Philly.

+130

by **Other Teams Pursuing That** Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:28 am

Nordic wrote:
Nordic wrote:Biden odds shifted back to +250, was a high as +450. Az pretty much in the books IMO. Only question marks are Mi, Pa and Wi. i.e. Detroit and Philly.

+130

What is trump

by **Turtleneck** Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:28 am

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:
Nordic wrote:

+130

What is trump

A racist asshole.

by MattyFresh Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:40 am

I put in a bet for 25 at +250 for Biden, I am a junkie I know, I could buy out though but I wont. Trumps at -141 and Bidens at +114

by **Nordic** Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:42 am

I know this shit is not going to be decided tonight and want to go to bed, but just can't avert my eyes.

by MattyFresh Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:49 am

Nordic wrote:I know this shit is not going to be decided tonight and want to go to bed, but just can't avert my eyes.

Inject election uncertainty into my VEINNNNNSSSSSS

by Sponsored content