Bump when these numbers move

AvgMSUJoe wrote:Wait... media is telling us the economy is a wreck cause of biden's inflation...

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I don't trust anyone who thinks they know what is going on with the economy. I can probably say both sides seem to have simple answers to complex problems and that is simply trying to score political points.

AvgMSUJoe wrote:Wait... media is telling us the economy is a wreck cause of biden's inflation...

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Well, I saw one explanation for this earlier today, which is a large percentage of that growth actually is attributable to inflation. So there's that.

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Must be the "liberal" media... lol.

Floyd Robertson wrote:

AvgMSUJoe wrote:Wait... media is telling us the economy is a wreck cause of biden's inflation...

[tw]1460601503744466944[/tw]

Well, I saw one explanation for this earlier today, which is a large percentage of that growth actually is attributable to inflation. So there's that.

GDP growth factors in inflation, so whom ever made that explanation just doesn't know how the numbers are done.

The federal government underestimated job growth by 626,000 jobs from June through September — the largest underestimate of any other comparable period since the 1970s.

The number of shipping containers sitting on docks at the port of Los Angeles has declined by 29 percent in recent weeks.

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a good old "Build Back Better" bump.

Bump.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:a good old "Build Back Better" bump.

Bump.

We may know before Christmas, however it sounds like Ridin With Biden will pass the BBB.

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Weekly initial jobless claims came in at a level of 222,000 for the week ended November 27, versus the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 240,000 and compared to the prior week's downwardly-revised 194,000 level, which was the lowest since 1969.

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Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.

Just to note that the initial release of the numbers has been screwed up most of the year, which sigificant increases in the numbers in later releases...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 67,000, from +312,000 to +379,000, and the change for October was revised up by 15,000, from +531,000 to +546,000. With these revisions, employment in September and October combined is 82,000 higher than previously reported.

The first release of September numbers:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September ...

So 379,000 / 194,000 * 100 = 195% underreporting of jobs in first September release.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

bump..

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LFPR increased in November ...

The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.8 percent in November.

And the UE rate dropped by 0.4%, which is a huge drop in that number.

My tin foil hat theory is that there are Tumpsters embedded at BLS who are causing the headline employment numbers on initial release to be the lowest number possible. A less tin foil hat theory would be that BLS methods are not really adjusted for the effects of that pandemic and thus the numbers they are first getting are systemically too low.

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AP article points out what I am pointing out, that the numbers do not add up ...

That positive trend suggests that November was a healthier month for job growth than the modest 210,000 gain the government reported Friday in its survey of businesses. The unemployment rate is calculated from a separate survey of households. This survey found that a much larger 1.1 million more people reported that they were employed last month.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-business-unemployment-economy-e62c5ed35f69bc763a6d297858ceb084

number of points the Dow is currently up:

+648.35

bump.

Job quits, the monthly stat driving the Great Resignation — which has become synonymous with the post-pandemic economic recovery — cooled a bit in October.

The big picture: The ratio of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to the lowest level in decades, according to data out Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Why it matters: Though the unemployment rate is still above its pre-pandemic low, almost every other indicator suggests the economy is at full employment, wrote Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a research note.

https://www.axios.com/job-quits-rate-peaks-great-resignation-b86fd2fb-17d3-41ee-acea-0bdcbca13d4f.html

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The final look (of three) at Q3 Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of economic output, showed a quarter-over-quarter (q/q) annualized rate of expansion of 2.3%, compared to forecasts calling for it to remain at the 2.1% growth rate posted in the second release. Q2's figure was unadjusted at a 6.7% increase. Personal consumption was revised to a 2.0% rise for Q3 from the previous estimate of a 1.7% gain and versus expectations to be unrevised. Q2 consumption was unadjusted at a 12.0% gain.

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U.S. stocks finished higher as the S&P 500 registered a fresh record closing level in the last session of a volatile, holiday-shortened week. Investors tried to shake off omicron concerns as some studies suggested it may be less severe than its brethren, and following additional COVID-19 treatments which were granted U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) emergency use authorization. Despite the ongoing concerns around omicron, inflation, and interest rates, some upbeat economic reports boosted stocks, as jobless claims remain near pre-pandemic lows, durable goods orders came in well above forecasts, consumer sentiment was revised higher, and new home sales hit a seven-month high. Treasuries were lower, lifting yields, and the U.S. dollar ticked lower, while crude oil and gold traded to the upside. In light equity news, Quidel Corp. agreed to purchase Ortho Clinical Diagnostics for $6 billion, and Merck's molnupiravir pill received FDA's emergency use authorization for treatment of mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease in adults. Asia and Europe finished broadly higher on the back of gains out of the U.S. yesterday, and as omicron concerns receded.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell below 200,000, more evidence that the job market remains strong in the aftermath of last year’s coronavirus recession.

Jobless claims dropped by 8,000 to 198,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, fell to just above 199,000, lowest level since October 1969.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-united-states-jobless-claims-d6dea339ffc43f103fe24a372f453f80

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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Once again there are significant upward revisions to the prior months' numbers ... this is not typical


The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 102,000,
from +546,000 to +648,000, and the change for November was revised up by 39,000, from
+210,000 to +249,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined
is 141,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional
reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published
estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

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some more information .... from an AP article https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-united-states-unemployment-8b5ea49ecd8012a0fedb2bbc9fe4fff9

Last month’s drop in the unemployment rate — to 3.9%, a pandemic low, (more like almost an all-time low) from 4.2% in November — was encouraging. The labor force, made up of people who either have a job or are looking for one, rose by 168,000 in December. The number who said they had jobs shot up by 651,000. And the ranks of the unemployed fell by 483,000.  

(How do these numbers match up with 199K reported as the headline number?  They don't, so expect big upward revisions for the next two months.  Also, except for for some stoned out of their minds economic grad students who are way overestimating what will be reported, almost 200k a month is an okay number)

bump

Bump/Clunk

Dow -460
NASDAQ -300

kingstonlake wrote:Bump/Clunk

Dow -460
NASDAQ -300

Markets need to take a breath. Not off to a good start in 2022.

It’s all timing and if another party that thinks tax cuts always cure everything had majorities and The White House they’d be increasing deficits again.

The GOP/“ Conservative” dictum is:

The economy is slowing down, we need to cut taxes and the economy is doing well so we need to cut taxes.

Deficits and government revenue only count when there’s a Democrat in The White House.

Biden inherited problems that are now looking to be part of the new normal.  

Flex office hours and companies finding they can only retain or hire people if those employees can have a home office are decimating the commercial ffice real estate markets.  In turn restaurants near businesses that used to have 100’s of office workers who would pick up lunches or frequent them for breakfasts or lunches are getting hammered.  Look at how many local restaurants in a small place like Lansing are struggling.

Toss in supply issues on everything from stamped parts to electronic components needed to assemble a multitude of products and it results in slowdowns or shutdowns In plants and warehouses all over the world.

Car dealers can’t get new inventory, Sony and others have announced they are currently not taking orders for everything from certain models of TV’s to cameras because of chip shortages.  

If you want to listen to the loudest whines on who’s at fault just remember you are listening lowest common denominator one stage messaging.

COVID and it’s variants are causing paradigm shifts that will be painful and have complicated solutions where everybody won’t win.

GRR Spartan wrote:It’s all timing and if another party that thinks tax cuts always cure everything had majorities and The White House they’d be increasing deficits again.

The GOP/“ Conservative” dictum is:

The economy is slowing down, we need to cut taxes and the economy is doing well so we need to cut taxes.

Deficits and government revenue only count when there’s a Democrat in The White House.

Biden inherited problems that are now looking to be part of the new normal.  

Flex office hours and companies finding they can only retain or hire people if those employees can have a home office are decimating the commercial ffice real estate markets.  In turn restaurants near businesses that used to have 100’s of office workers who would pick up lunches or frequent them for breakfasts or lunches are getting hammered.  Look at how many local restaurants in a small place like Lansing are struggling.

Toss in supply issues on everything from stamped parts to electronic components needed to assemble a multitude of products and it results in slowdowns or shutdowns In plants and warehouses all over the world.

Car dealers can’t get new inventory, Sony and others have announced they are currently not taking orders for everything from certain models of TV’s to cameras because of chip shortages.  

If you want to listen to the loudest whines on who’s at fault just remember you are listening lowest common denominator one stage messaging.

COVID and it’s variants are causing paradigm shifts that will be painful and have complicated solutions where everybody won’t win.

you forgot to say 'bump'.

Are we not bumping for the new inflation numbers this week?

Bredo Morstoel wrote:Are we not bumping for the new inflation numbers this week?

I put them in the Stagflation thread, there are several posts on that, including the Wednesday CPI numbers and the PPI numbers which came out on Thursday ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

FWIW some economists were predicting 7.1% year to year inflation.

The first look at the December inflation picture will come tomorrow, courtesy of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forecasted to have increased 0.4% month-over-month (m/m) following November's 0.7% jump, while the core rate, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have gained 0.5% m/m. - https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/schwab-market-update

bump (you know the rules, I hope)

Trapper Gus wrote:

Bredo Morstoel wrote:Are we not bumping for the new inflation numbers this week?

I put them in the Stagflation thread, there are several posts on that, including the Wednesday CPI numbers and the PPI numbers which came out on Thursday ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

FWIW some economists were predicting 7.1% year to year inflation.

The first look at the December inflation picture will come tomorrow, courtesy of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forecasted to have increased 0.4% month-over-month (m/m) following November's 0.7% jump, while the core rate, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have gained 0.5% m/m. - https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/schwab-market-update

bump (you know the rules, I hope)

thank you.

bump.

Jobless claims rose for the third straight week — by 55,000 to 286,000 ... Economists said that last week’s claims may have been inflated by the Labor Department’s attempts to tweak the numbers to account for seasonal variations; unadjusted, applications fell last week by more than 83,000.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-jobless-claims-ecad587774bfc25de08655bbeed00058

Jobless claims rose, except they really fell ...

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Dow down 650
NASDAQ down 260

kingstonlake wrote:Dow down 650
NASDAQ down 260

There was a time, you know, 30 days ago, when I was feeling good about my retirement in 6-7 years. I hope I can get a Home Depot job at 67.

Floyd Robertson wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:Dow down 650
NASDAQ down 260

There was a time, you know, 30 days ago, when I was feeling good about my retirement in 6-7 years. I hope I can get a Home Depot job at 67.

67 is the new 62!

kingstonlake wrote:Dow down 650
NASDAQ down 260

you forgot to say 'bump'.

bump.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:Dow down 650
NASDAQ down 260

you forgot to say 'bump'.

bump.

I gif’d bump

kingstonlake wrote:Dow down 650
NASDAQ down 260

Accurate.

kingstonlake wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote: you forgot to say 'bump'.

bump.

I gif’d bump

good point. I guess I thought the gif was some sort of imagery of a scary Joe Biden running off with all of our stuff and taking it to brown people.


I'll let it slide. Well done.

Floyd Robertson wrote:

There was a time, you know, 30 days ago, when I was feeling good about my retirement in 6-7 years. I hope I can get a Home Depot job at 67.

Let's go Brandon!

RQA wrote:

Floyd Robertson wrote:

There was a time, you know, 30 days ago, when I was feeling good about my retirement in 6-7 years. I hope I can get a Home Depot job at 67.

Let's go Brandon!

Republican or Democrat. Anyone that correlates stock market performance with the presidency is a fucking moron.

Motown Spartan wrote:

RQA wrote:

Let's go Brandon!

Republican or Democrat. Anyone that correlates stock market performance with the presidency is a fucking moron.

America is a stupid country.

Big Gretch rockin' some numbers.

GM to invest historic $7 billion in 4 facilities across Michigan, creating 4,000 jobs

Caution: Mainstream Media Link

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Robert J Sakimano wrote:Big Gretch rockin' some numbers.

GM to invest historic $7 billion in 4 facilities across Michigan, creating 4,000 jobs

Caution: Mainstream Media Link

bump.

But Bob Psaki-mano, she severely missed on the Toyota project a few months ago....