Harris Vs. Trump 2024. The battle to save America. Lets do this.

kingstonlake wrote:

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:

The ads you are seeing are making you think she's going to lose? No offense Kingston but hit the mute button and relax. Everyone's mind was made up months ago. She has some pretty effective ads, too. I think she is going to win comfortably personally.

They don’t affect me at all. I just believe that a majority of Americans are dumb and influenced by what they see. It’s the world we live in now. Fox News channel isn’t the most popular cable news network for its thought provoking and objective content.

The real news can be covered in about 30 minutes, so all the media has to do things to fill up the other 23.5 hours.

We need, but will never get, the Fairness Doctrine put back in force, and not just for broadcast media.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:According to commercials during the game,  I'm supposed to be upset about men using girls locker rooms?

Sure, because we all know that if there were cute girls in stages of undress in those locker rooms 75% of the men would want to use them, starting with trump and his fellow pedophiles..../s

PennSpartan wrote:

Motown Spartan wrote:

Your political and football takes are equally horrendous.

I like winning.  I know, it’s a stupid Boomer thing.  Old habits die hard.  Can’t wait for the election!

Sounds like you are all in for Trump, now and you are believing the Trumpy polls.

I think most of us view these ads with common sense. We know what we’re seeing is propaganda. That’s not who these ads are intended for. They’re targeted at people who don’t know better. You only have to look at network and cable programming. Look at what gets ratings and what people like to absorb. Look at the shows and events where these ads are placed. I don’t think these ads are trying to flip or change anyone’s mind. Even if they scare a small percentage into voting they will be effective and accomplish their goal.

kingstonlake wrote:I think most of us view these ads with common sense. We know what we’re seeing is propaganda. That’s not who these ads are intended for. They’re targeted at people who don’t know better. You only have to look at network and cable programming. Look at what gets ratings and what people like to absorb. Look at the shows and events where these ads are placed. I don’t think these ads are trying to flip or change anyone’s mind. Even if they scare a small percentage into voting they will be effective and accomplish their goal.

It's hard to nail down how many "undecideds" there are, but in yes, you are correct, I think.

Apparently the Trumps  big show at MSG was a hit. Complete with racist jokes about Puerto Rico and black people

https://www.threads.net/@rolandsmartin/post/DBo6MHJxBBZ?xmt=AQGzCswcrMCSa7G-If8HL_zo_PVWk12uPQnHyFbnAmmJSw

https://www.threads.net/@shannonrwatts/post/DBpCmvLPQ9W?xmt=AQGzN55X2WjS3PibHSG0lNqtT8rW_S6tOIVTL-rbnIxPAA

kingstonlake wrote:Apparently the Trumps  big show at MSG was a hit. Complete with racist jokes about Puerto Rico and black people

https://www.threads.net/@rolandsmartin/post/DBo6MHJxBBZ?xmt=AQGzCswcrMCSa7G-If8HL_zo_PVWk12uPQnHyFbnAmmJSw

https://www.threads.net/@shannonrwatts/post/DBpCmvLPQ9W?xmt=AQGzN55X2WjS3PibHSG0lNqtT8rW_S6tOIVTL-rbnIxPAA

People want Kamala to play to her base, but when Trump does it people get offended. /s

What Trump is doing is the dark side of the United States, so yes, people who love the ideals as expressed by Jefferson, Washington & Lincoln are offended.

TravelinMan wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:Apparently the Trumps  big show at MSG was a hit. Complete with racist jokes about Puerto Rico and black people

https://www.threads.net/@rolandsmartin/post/DBo6MHJxBBZ?xmt=AQGzCswcrMCSa7G-If8HL_zo_PVWk12uPQnHyFbnAmmJSw

https://www.threads.net/@shannonrwatts/post/DBpCmvLPQ9W?xmt=AQGzN55X2WjS3PibHSG0lNqtT8rW_S6tOIVTL-rbnIxPAA

People want Kamala to play to her base, but when Trump does it people get offended. /s

Are you a nazi? Nm, your a cuck.

InTenSity wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:

People want Kamala to play to her base, but when Trump does it people get offended. /s

Are you a nazi? Nm, your a cuck.

It’s “you’re” not “your.”

kingstonlake wrote:Apparently the Trumps  big show at MSG was a hit. Complete with racist jokes about Puerto Rico and black people

https://www.threads.net/@rolandsmartin/post/DBo6MHJxBBZ?xmt=AQGzCswcrMCSa7G-If8HL_zo_PVWk12uPQnHyFbnAmmJSw

https://www.threads.net/@shannonrwatts/post/DBpCmvLPQ9W?xmt=AQGzN55X2WjS3PibHSG0lNqtT8rW_S6tOIVTL-rbnIxPAA

I remember when republican/libertarians got upset and clutched their pearls when I'd call them racist.

Looks like I was right.. who knew?

He also said the quiet part out loud about their secret plan to get the election to the house.

saw a clip  of one of the republican/libertarians last night saying that their christian hero "took a bullet for you and took a bullet for democracy"...

it's almost like all of the 'assassination attempts' was the plan all along..  

Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.

Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump

ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN:  Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34

Blue Wave?

BTW, a 60% plus share of voters is LBJ 64 or Nixon 72 levels of voting.

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:He also said the quiet part out loud about their secret plan to get the election to the house.

[tw]1849601743627108529[/tw]

She’s not winning. She’s just isn’t mirroring Bidens polling in 2020 where he eaked out a win by the slimmest of margins. Even with something like a 5% margin nationally favoring him. Turnout will be lower than 2020. I guess there’s a chance that silent Trump votes will disappear this cycle. But I just don’t see it.

Flip the house. Save the senate.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.

Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump

ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN:  Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34

Blue Wave?

BTW, a 60% plus share of voters is LBJ 64 or Nixon 72 levels of voting.

Early voting is always a strong lean to Dems, especially since Trump has been telling his followers for years (until the last couple of weeks) not to early vote or vote by mail.

MiamiSpartan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Blue Wave?

BTW, a 60% plus share of voters is LBJ 64 or Nixon 72 levels of voting.

Early voting is always a strong lean to Dems, especially since Trump has been telling his followers for years (until the last couple of weeks) not to early vote or vote by mail.

Sure, but compare who is voting, 47% Democratics, 44% Republicans, 9% Independents, with who they are voting for, 61% Harris, 35% Trump.

Even if all the Dems & Indies are voting for Harris, unlikely but for sake of argument, that is 56%, meaning that she is picking up 6% from Reps, or as a percentage of Rep voters 14%. Given that Indies (and Dems) are not all voting for her probably closer to 20%.

And the 47% / 44% split says Republicans are voting early almost as much as Democratics.

kingstonlake wrote:She’s not winning. She’s just isn’t mirroring Bidens polling in 2020 where he eaked out a win by the slimmest of margins. Even with something like a 5% margin nationally favoring him. Turnout will be lower than 2020. I guess there’s a chance that silent Trump votes will disappear this cycle. But I just don’t see it.

Flip the house. Save the senate.

there's always the anti-America racist, bigoted misogynists who say out loud one thing and do another one under the veil of the voting booth.

we see it here, even in our small community.

those are the people who the pointy-headed, pseudo-intellectual pollsters haven't been able to capture and correct for.

Trapper Gus wrote:

Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.

Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump

ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN:  Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34

Blue Wave?

BTW, a 60% plus share of voters is LBJ 64 or Nixon 72 levels of voting.

While I'd rather be on top in early voting polls than not, it's overall pretty meaningless at this point. Even if it "shows" Republicans somewhat breaking for Kamala. At this point it's false hope until we win.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:She’s not winning. She’s just isn’t mirroring Bidens polling in 2020 where he eaked out a win by the slimmest of margins. Even with something like a 5% margin nationally favoring him. Turnout will be lower than 2020. I guess there’s a chance that silent Trump votes will disappear this cycle. But I just don’t see it.

Flip the house. Save the senate.

there's always the anti-America racist, bigoted misogynists who say out loud one thing and do another one under the veil of the voting booth.

we see it here, even in our small community.

those are the people who the pointy-headed, pseudo-intellectual pollsters haven't been able to capture and correct for.

However, the overturn of Roe has sparked higher registrations for pro-abortion voters, and this is the first Presidential election since that happened. Overall, the pollsters are having a difficult time choosing which mix of voters to set their poll numbers to.

kingstonlake wrote:She’s not winning. She’s just isn’t mirroring Bidens polling in 2020 where he eaked out a win by the slimmest of margins.  Even with something like a 5% margin nationally favoring him.  Turnout will be lower than 2020. I guess there’s a chance that silent Trump votes will disappear this cycle. But I just don’t see it.

Flip the house. Save the senate.

Harris is going to win by a considerable amount- Trump will flail at the bullshit attempts at stealing the election but only the mypillow guy will believe him and it won’t really go anywhere. Maybe some good old fashioned conservative domestic terrorism here and there from the true believers but that’s it 

Harris will then proceed to be a very meh president as a result of Biden’s decision making to not drop out while a primary could have still happened and the people could have a say over whom they actually liked the best, and 2028 will be very alarming (assuming Trump is dead by then. If not, he’ll run and win the Republican primary, and the Democrat will easily win again.)

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Blue Wave?

BTW, a 60% plus share of voters is LBJ 64 or Nixon 72 levels of voting.

While I'd rather be on top in early voting polls than not, it's overall pretty meaningless at this point. Even if it "shows" Republicans somewhat breaking for Kamala. At this point it's false hope until we win.

Not as much as you might think, doing the math .... As of today, voters nationwide have returned a total of 41,829,533 advance ballots in the 2024 general election.

154.6 million turned out for the presidential election in 2020

Let's assume 160 million for this one...

Harris only needs 54 million more votes, or by percentage 45% of the remaining vote to reach 50% of the total vote.

Trump needs 76 million more votes, or (obviously) 55% of the remaining vote, to reach 50% of the total vote.

That is a bunch of votes to make up on election day.

Never underestimate how much the GOP and MAGA's are going to throw at the fan from now thru Jan 6 2025 to try Trump Coup 2.0

GRR Spartan wrote:Never underestimate how much the GOP and MAGA's are going to throw at the fan from now thru Jan 6 2025 to try Trump Coup 2.0

yep - whining, bigotry, racism, misogyny and violence is all republican/libertarians know.

Trapper Gus wrote:

MiamiSpartan wrote:
Early voting is always a strong lean to Dems, especially since Trump has been telling his followers for years (until the last couple of weeks) not to early vote or vote by mail.

Sure, but compare who is voting, 47% Democratics, 44% Republicans, 9% Independents, with who they are voting for, 61% Harris, 35% Trump.

Even if all the Dems & Indies are voting for Harris, unlikely but for sake of argument, that is 56%, meaning that she is picking up 6% from Reps, or as a percentage of Rep voters 14%. Given that Indies (and Dems) are not all voting for her probably closer to 20%.

And the 47% / 44% split says Republicans are voting early almost as much as Democratics.

So...we believe these polls?

Trapper Gus wrote:

sεяεηιτλ wrote:

While I'd rather be on top in early voting polls than not, it's overall pretty meaningless at this point.  Even if it "shows" Republicans somewhat breaking for Kamala.  At this point it's false hope until we win.

Not as much as you might think, doing the math .... As of today, voters nationwide have returned a total of 41,829,533 advance ballots in the 2024 general election.

154.6 million turned out for the presidential election in 2020

Let's assume 160 million for this one...

Harris only needs 54 million more votes, or by percentage 45% of the remaining vote to reach 50% of the total vote.

Trump needs 76 million more votes, or (obviously) 55% of the remaining vote, to reach 50% of the total vote.

That is a bunch of votes to make up on election day.

If you are setting 80,000,000 as the number they need to get to 50%

And Kamala needs 54 more, that means she’s already received 26 million

And Trump needs 76 million, so he’s already received 4

Setting aside why you think the split on that is 26 million/4 million- 42 million have voted. 

Jill Stein has apparently gotten 12 million votes

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:She’s not winning. She’s just isn’t mirroring Bidens polling in 2020 where he eaked out a win by the slimmest of margins.  Even with something like a 5% margin nationally favoring him.  Turnout will be lower than 2020. I guess there’s a chance that silent Trump votes will disappear this cycle. But I just don’t see it.

Flip the house. Save the senate.

Harris is going to win by a considerable amount- Trump will flail at the bullshit attempts at stealing the election but only the mypillow guy will believe him and it won’t really go anywhere. Maybe some good old fashioned conservative domestic terrorism here and there from the true believers but that’s it 

Harris will then proceed to be a very meh president as a result of Biden’s decision making to not drop out while a primary could have still happened and the people could have a say over whom they actually liked the best, and 2028 will be very alarming (assuming Trump is dead by then. If not, he’ll run and win the Republican primary, and the Democrat will easily win again.)

I hope you’re right and there’s a part of me that hopes America ends up doing the right thing. But hope isn’t a strategy. And I hate having to cling to it since 2016. Fuck that strategy sucks. We got young ones my man. This sucks.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Not as much as you might think, doing the math .... As of today, voters nationwide have returned a total of 41,829,533 advance ballots in the 2024 general election.

154.6 million turned out for the presidential election in 2020

Let's assume 160 million for this one...

Harris only needs 54 million more votes, or by percentage 45% of the remaining vote to reach 50% of the total vote.

Trump needs 76 million more votes, or (obviously) 55% of the remaining vote, to reach 50% of the total vote.

That is a bunch of votes to make up on election day.

If you are setting 80,000,000 as the number they need to get to 50%

And Kamala needs 54 more, that means she’s already received 26 million

And Trump needs 76 million, so he’s already received 4

Setting aside why you think the split on that is 26 million/4 million- 42 million have voted. 

Jill Stein has apparently gotten 12 million votes

You are right, did the math too quickly, Trump needs 64 if the vote was 62% Harris & 38% Trump...

At 34% Trump he needs a bit more, 66 maybe...

My arithmetic sucks but the point stands that getting over 60% of the vote thus far is a huge number.

Split is based on the exit polling listed above.

NigelUno wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Sure, but compare who is voting, 47% Democratics, 44% Republicans, 9% Independents, with who they are voting for, 61% Harris, 35% Trump.

Even if all the Dems & Indies are voting for Harris, unlikely but for sake of argument, that is 56%, meaning that she is picking up 6% from Reps, or as a percentage of Rep voters 14%. Given that Indies (and Dems) are not all voting for her probably closer to 20%.

And the 47% / 44% split says Republicans are voting early almost as much as Democratics.

So...we believe these polls?

Exit polls which are people saying how they voted, which are easier because all the factors of demographics are gone, just a straight sampling of people who have voted.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Not as much as you might think, doing the math .... As of today, voters nationwide have returned a total of 41,829,533 advance ballots in the 2024 general election.

154.6 million turned out for the presidential election in 2020

Let's assume 160 million for this one...

Harris only needs 54 million more votes, or by percentage 45% of the remaining vote to reach 50% of the total vote.

Trump needs 76 million more votes, or (obviously) 55% of the remaining vote, to reach 50% of the total vote.

That is a bunch of votes to make up on election day.

If you are setting 80,000,000 as the number they need to get to 50%

And Kamala needs 54 more, that means she’s already received 26 million

And Trump needs 76 million, so he’s already received 4

Setting aside why you think the split on that is 26 million/4 million- 42 million have voted. 

Jill Stein has apparently gotten 12 million votes

“Let’s assume” is always kinda funny when stating your case. Also Trump only needed a strategically placed 46.8 % of the vote to almost win an election he lost electorally 306 to 232

kingstonlake wrote:

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
If you are setting 80,000,000 as the number they need to get to 50%

And Kamala needs 54 more, that means she’s already received 26 million

And Trump needs 76 million, so he’s already received 4

Setting aside why you think the split on that is 26 million/4 million- 42 million have voted. 

Jill Stein has apparently gotten 12 million votes

“Let’s assume” is always kinda funny when stating your case. Also Trump only needed a strategically placed 46.8 % of the vote to almost win an election he lost electorally 306 to 232

So far with over 20% of the vote cast he has about 6% to 7% of the overall vote to Harris's 12% to 13% of the overall vote.

Also turnout will be lower this election vs 2020, not higher. Early voting and mail in is reflecting that. I guess it’s a question of who is sitting it out.

Trapper Gus wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

So...we believe these polls?

Exit polls which are people saying how they voted, which are easier because all the factors of demographics are gone, just a straight sampling of people who have voted.

Exit polls are still polls. Meaning they're a very tiny fraction of voters being asked, and their answers are extrapolated to represent tens of millions of people. Especially with the demographics removed, it makes that inherently unreliable at this stage.

And the national numbers don't mean shit. 160 million people could turn out, and the person that wins the election could end up with 70m.

kingstonlake wrote:Also turnout will be lower this election vs 2020, not higher. Early voting and mail in is reflecting that. I guess it’s a question of who is sitting it out.

While turnout may very well be lower, early voting and mail in voting numbers should not be looked at as an indication of that relative to 2020, considering that the pandemic drove unprecedented early voting, and especially unprecedented mail in voting.

Trumps MSG rally aims were two fold.

Reinforce support of the white male under 40 base and more importantly start getting them ginned up for Stop the Steal 2 if required.

GRR Spartan wrote:Trumps MSG rally aims were two fold.

Reinforce support of the white male under 40 base  and more importantly start getting them ginned up for Stop the Steal 2 if required.

yep - republicans/libertarians are anxiously awaiting marching orders.

I mean.. he took a bullet for them.. it's the least they can do for him.   

estimated hundreds of ballots are destroyed after someone sets fire to ballot boxes in Washington and Oregon.

Hundreds of ballots are destroyed after fires are set in ballot drop boxes in Oregon and Washington

probably the kind of political violence and terrorism we can expect more of.

Caution: Mainstream Media Link

kingstonlake wrote:Also turnout will be lower this election vs 2020, not higher. Early voting and mail in is reflecting that. I guess it’s a question of who is sitting it out.

Why do you believe turnout will be lower?

MiamiSpartan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Exit polls which are people saying how they voted, which are easier because all the factors of demographics are gone, just a straight sampling of people who have voted.

Exit polls are still polls.  Meaning they're a very tiny fraction of voters being asked, and their answers are extrapolated to represent tens of millions of people.  Especially with the demographics removed, it makes that inherently unreliable at this stage.

And the national numbers don't mean shit.  160 million people could turn out, and the person that wins the election could end up with 70m.

Exit polls just because the data doesn't have to be massaged to make it look like some cross section of the population are inherently more accurate than pre-election polling which is massaged to who the pollsters think will vote.

Sure, it has the sampling rate errors that any statistical sample has but that is much more straightforward.

It says what it says, which is a snapshot of how the 40 million who have all ready voted have voted, within the sampling error, and that sampling error is much smaller than the pre-election polls.