Hurricane Ian

Lot of nice places on Captiva. 16 feet would likely put the whole island under water

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
I was watching one of the stations and they were reporting that most people have decided to stay home rather than evacuate. So after this storm there are going to be a lot of stories of people who wish they wouldn't have stayed behind and should have evacuated.

I don’t understand why people do this. Maybe it’s because I live in Michigan. But if I had several days notice that a tornado was going to be in my area on a certain day, I would get my family out of here that day. Wouldn’t batten down the hatches on the house or anything, pretty unlikely it’s actually going to hit my house, but why take a chance and stay if I know it could be very bad?

Perfect analogy

The accuracy of the long range forecasts has gotten crazy good over the last few years or so. It's pretty much going exactly where they said it would 5+ days ago. Used to be I wanted to be in the middle of the cone that far out because I knew it would always change.

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
I was watching one of the stations and they were reporting that most people have decided to stay home rather than evacuate. So after this storm there are going to be a lot of stories of people who wish they wouldn't have stayed behind and should have evacuated.

I don’t understand why people do this. Maybe it’s because I live in Michigan. But if I had several days notice that a tornado was going to be in my area on a certain day, I would get my family out of here that day. Wouldn’t batten down the hatches on the house or anything, pretty unlikely it’s actually going to hit my house, but why take a chance and stay if I know it could be very bad?

Yesterday it was looking like a direct hit on Tampa, last night it moved further south. A little wobble can change the trajectory by about 100 miles. A lot of people want to 'tough it out', prove they are better than nature, or it isn't as bad as they show on TV. The ones that piss me off are the families with small kids. Ok you survived the storm, but now its going to take a week for anyone to get to you and get you out, while you have no power or water.
If there is a 16ft storm surge, this is going to be unlike anything since Katrina, IMO, although hopefully not in as populated an area. I still think Tampa is going to be affected but hopefully not as bad. I think I also heard it is now moving at 2 mph, that is basically stalled out.

Tampa Bay is fucking empty right now.

I have a cousin in ft Meyer. There are 2 little kids and 1 on the way. I don't get it. They have the means to evacuate, but they didn't.

Regarding evacuation, they have evacuation zones.  Those are based primarily on potential for storm surge.  If you're not at threat for that, you aren't asked to evacuate, and that usually only extends a mile or less inland.  If you have shutters or hurricane impact windows, and aren't in an evacuation zone, you aren't at a big risk of real danger.  When you see roofs ripped off a house, it is because a window broke, the hurricane gets inside the house, and the roof gives because it is getting destroyed from the inside.

Don't think of it in terms a tornado in Michigan, because your houses are primarily made if wood, right?  Isn't brick usually decorative?  So think of Michigan houses as the 2nd little pig when the big bad wolf comes huffing puffing, and Florida homes are the 3rd little pig.

Having said that, there are older homes, a TON of mobile homes (not just like UM fans, even really nice ones that retirees buy).  And some people don't have shutters or hurricane windows. It's madness to stay in any of those situations.

Dendrobates wrote:I have a cousin in ft Meyer. There are 2 little kids and 1 on the way. I don't get it. They have the means to evacuate, but they didn't.

I don't either Dendro. The going down with the ship people need to understand it's just a ship. And it's insured.

Condo we go down to is two miles south of St Pete Beach. Our front door is maybe 50 yards from the gulf. I’m thinking it’s fucked.

SIL went to stay with her daughter farther inland, Bradenton area. They're currently trying to keep water out of their house. Daughter's brother is without power at his house. Gonna be a long day and night for them.

Miami that makes sense but I’d still just go for a drive because hey staying here sounds more dangerous than not staying here.

I have another question though- a lot of people own condos and stuff all along the coast of florida but don’t regularly live there. Do they have like services that will come to secure their windows and shit if necessary before a hurricane? It would seem insane for them to fly in, do whatever they gotta do, and fly out when a major storm is on the way. Seems to make sense to pay someone else to do it. Is that a thing?

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Travis of the Cosmos wrote:Miami that makes sense but I’d still just go for a drive because hey staying here sounds more dangerous than not staying here.

I have another question though- a lot of people own condos and stuff all along the coast of florida but don’t regularly live there. Do they have like services that will come to secure their windows and shit if necessary before a hurricane? It would seem insane for them to fly in, do whatever they gotta do, and fly out when a major storm is on the way. Seems to make sense to pay someone else to do it. Is that a thing?

Yes, there are usually management companies, and/or third parties that don't that kind of thing if necessary. But people in those condos usually close their shutters when they head back to wherever their permanent residence is. And so many have hurricane windows now that even that they don't even have to worry about shutters.

Water in Tampa Bay recedes dramatically as Hurricane Ian approaches

The Pantry wrote:Water in Tampa Bay recedes dramatically as Hurricane Ian approaches

I'm not a weathertologist, but I don't think that is a good sign.

DWags wrote:[tw]1575194411104817152?s=46&t=bBd504A2FZUJbadp8GEz4Q[/tw]

SyFy will be airing their new movie Sharkicane in November.

My Business partner move down to Englewood Florida. He left and went to his sons house in Miami. Said he had shattered up his house and is hoping for the best. He tells me he’s 5 miles from the ocean. He doesn’t know if the surge will make it to his house but he’s very worried about it. He was bragging to me how he has these electronic shutters put on his house a couple years ago. Today he was telling me he hopes they’re enough

Judging from vid from Weather Channel so far, this thing isn't as bad as I thought it would be. Hope it stays that way.

The Pantry wrote:Judging from vid from Weather Channel so far, this thing isn't as bad as I thought it would be.  Hope it stays that way.

It's bad.  My buddy in Naples lives on a canal. Water is 3 feet from entering his house,  his house is about 8 feet or so above the canal.  This is going to be bad.

Nordic wrote:

The Pantry wrote:Water in Tampa Bay recedes dramatically as Hurricane Ian approaches

I'm weathertologist, but I don't think that is a good sign.

You'd think that after the 2004 tsunami, people would know that.

InTenSity wrote:

The Pantry wrote:Judging from vid from Weather Channel so far, this thing isn't as bad as I thought it would be.  Hope it stays that way.

It's bad.  My buddy in Naples lives on a canal. Water is 3 feet from entering his house,  his house is about 8 feet or so above the canal.  This is going to be bad.

WC is showing shots from Naples and Sanibel now. Yeah, it looks bad. Good luck to your bud.

The Pantry wrote:

Nordic wrote:

I'm weathertologist, but I don't think that is a good sign.

You'd think that after the 2004 tsunami, people would know that.

It's a completely different event than a Tsunami drawing water out. This is pushed out because the winds were coming from the North, so pushing it South out of the bay. It isn't coming back in as a Tsunami, and should be gradual.

MiamiSpartan wrote:

The Pantry wrote:You'd think that after the 2004 tsunami, people would know that.

It's a completely different event than a Tsunami drawing water out. This is pushed out because the winds were coming from the North, so pushing it South out of the bay. It isn't coming back in as a Tsunami, and should be gradual.

Yeah, I get that. Just not a good sign in general when water recedes (except for normal tides) cause you know it's coming back bigger than it was.

The Pantry wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
It's bad.  My buddy in Naples lives on a canal. Water is 3 feet from entering his house,  his house is about 8 feet or so above the canal.  This is going to be bad.

WC is showing shots from Naples and Sanibel now.  Yeah, it looks bad.  Good luck to your bud.

Yeah, it is hard to imagine just how bad.  Storm surge in Ft Myers is up to the second floor of houses and it hasn't even peaked yet.
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And this, especially the 0:35 mark with the collapsed houses floating.
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And only a few pictures and vids are getting out so far.

The Pantry wrote:

MiamiSpartan wrote:
It's a completely different event than a Tsunami drawing water out. This is pushed out because the winds were coming from the North, so pushing it South out of the bay. It isn't coming back in as a Tsunami, and should be gradual.

Yeah, I get that. Just not a good sign in general when water recedes (except for normal tides) cause you know it's coming back bigger than it was.

Right. Fortunately, I don't THINK it will come back bigger than it was. At least as I'm imaging it, the circulation of the storm won't be pushing the water back in, sonl it should flow naturally. I'm not positive about that, though.

InTenSity wrote:Tampa Bay is fucking empty right now.

Good

MiamiSpartan wrote:Regarding evacuation, they have evacuation zones.  Those are based primarily on potential for storm surge.  If you're not at threat for that, you aren't asked to evacuate, and that usually only extends a mile or less inland.  If you have shutters or hurricane impact windows, and aren't in an evacuation zone, you aren't at a big risk of real danger.  When you see roofs ripped off a house, it is because a window broke, the hurricane gets inside the house, and the roof gives because it is getting destroyed from the inside.

Don't think of it in terms a tornado in Michigan, because your houses are primarily made if wood, right?  Isn't brick usually decorative?  So think of Michigan houses as the 2nd little pig when the big bad wolf comes huffing puffing, and Florida homes are the 3rd little pig.

Having said that, there are older homes, a TON of mobile homes (not just like UM fans, even really nice ones that retirees buy).  And some people don't have shutters or hurricane windows. It's madness to stay in any of those situations.

Wood frame houses are a form of construction all over the country as they as cheap to build.

Trapper Gus wrote:

InTenSity wrote:Tampa Bay is fucking empty right now.

Good

Not the city... the actual bay.

That's a 2 story building in pelican Bay. This is Bonita Bay,  just north of naples.

My friends in Naples at around noon said high winds no power. Much worse now.

Someone here has family in Punta Gorda if I remember correctly.

kingstonlake wrote:Someone here has family in Punta Gorda if I remember correctly.

My Dad's place was there, he sold it in July.

Sorta wonder. Do some people not evacuate because they've watched too much Weather Channel coverage of hurricanes? "Here, hold my beer. I can do that."

The Pantry wrote:Sorta wonder.  Do some people not evacuate because they've watched too much Weather Channel coverage of hurricanes?  "Here, hold my beer.  I can do that."

Do you want me to tell you the type that think they should ride this out?